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CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

I just googled mapped this, as I didn't know how big was... Sweet Jesus.

There's a reason why Manitoba argued in the late 19th century to retain a chunk of what's now Northern Ontario.
Also why every so often you hear quiet little mutters of separation for Northern Ontario .
The general feeling amongst some in that happy little region is they could fall off the face of the earth and would take weeks for Toronto and Queen's Park to notice.
 
And that is why North West Ontario feels so alienated from Queen's Park.

Which coincidentally is how the rest of country feels about Ottawa lol :)

There's a reason why Manitoba argued in the late 19th century to retain a chunk of what's now Northern Ontario.
Also why every so often you hear quiet little mutters of separation for Northern Ontario .
The general feeling amongst some in that happy little region is they could fall off the face of the earth and would take weeks for Toronto and Queen's Park to notice.

Its interesting, I also didn't know that originally Alberta, Sask were all supposed to be one province called Buffalo. Why it split:

AI ASSISTED Ottawa feared that a single western province spanning that much land would wield too much economic and political influence to rival eastern Canada



 
Which coincidentally is how the rest of country feels about Ottawa lol :)



Its interesting, I also didn't know that originally Alberta, Sask were all supposed to be one province called Buffalo. Why it split:

AI ASSISTED Ottawa feared that a single western province spanning that much land would wield too much economic and political influence to rival eastern Canada



Ottawa has been screwing the west since 1869 - Red River Rebellion was just the start.
All they need to do is just treat the colonies with a bit of respect. (I mean every part of Canada outside of the Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto axis)
 
The rebel would hire him in a heartbeat. Or some Vance linked consulting job in the states.

But if PP kicked him out of the CPC to sit as an independent, Jamil Jivani loses a lot of his credibility, and PP gets rid of an actual headache and a potential Brutus.

So of course Jivani is going to stick around.
People are emotionally vested in Poilievre being the bad guy regardless the scenario. A Conservative MP retires to go back to doing a job they love and Poilievre gets accused of bad leadership driving people from the party.

Whatever Poilievre does with Jivani will be wrong and proof he needs to be replaced etc. etc. etc.
 
The gap between Falcon Lake Manitoba and Sault St Marie Ontario needs to be the #1 priority to fix.
Expand the port of Thunder Bay
Twin the TCH
Twin the CNR and CPR (Is it already? Bogart should know)
Eventually a pipeline to Sarnia but we could have a terminal in Thunder Bay and use ships to get it there. (That the locks at the Soo being completely on the US side of the border could be an issue)

Just spitballing but the time for talk is done, time for some action, bitches!!
So, the CPR used to be twinned completely from Winnipeg to Thunder Bay. It is now only twinned for portions of the track and they replaced the twinned portions with extended sidings. Once you go past Thunder Bay, it changes to single track with sidings, though a lot of the sidings are smaller and there are a few chokepoints that cause delays due to trains having to wait.

Double track would be unnecessary but a couple of more extended sidings in strategic locations would greatly improve traffic flow across the shield. They have been slowly expanding sidings over time; however, the traffic isn't necessarily there to justify any further expenditure.

Railroads actually move more traffic now than they did when it was double track. They are able to do this due to advances in technology which allows them to forecast capacity constraints, plan meets and forecast demand a lot more effectively than was done in the past. They also run trains that are double the size that they were in the past.

CN used to run two main lines through Northern Ontario; however, they got rid of their Southern line a number of decades ago and it now ends in Thunder Bay and is a branch line used exclusively to link the Port to CN's larger network.

Double track is unnecessary and would be prohibitively expensive. Some investment in extended sidings and reactivation of disused lines would help with train speed and traffic velocity but the cost has to justify the investment.

The Government could make their own moves to improve the supply chain. I think Ontario Northland should expand their network and I feel it's a good model.

Some real good primers on railroad economics are out regularly by this guy:


 
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The gap between Falcon Lake Manitoba and Sault St Marie Ontario needs to be the #1 priority to fix.
Expand the port of Thunder Bay
Twin the TCH
Twin the CNR and CPR (Is it already? Bogart should know)
Eventually a pipeline to Sarnia but we could have a terminal in Thunder Bay and use ships to get it there. (That the locks at the Soo being completely on the US side of the border could be an issue)

Just spitballing but the time for talk is done, time for some action, bitches!!
A few points:

Expanding the Port of TBay would be a great idea - provided that enough blue water ships are willing to show up. If you are thinking of shipping petroleum, I don't know if there would be much enthusiasm for Seawaymax tankers and LNG ships. I can see more potash being bulk shipped.

In addition to the lock at SSM, a number of the St. Lawrence Seaway lock are on the US side as well.

CPKC used to be continuously double tracked west of TBay but it no longer is. I guess they found that with better signalling, train management and longer trains it was no longer needed. CN hasn't operated east of TBay in years, and their line from the west goes through the US. Seeing as they are both private, for-profit corporations, I guess the decision would be theirs.

SSM doesn't really have a lot of space for a significant port expansion, certain not without gutting its downtown.

Twinning the TCH might make for a safer, less stressful drive, but the traffic volumes certainly don't support it. If you look at the traffic volumes on the northern portions of I-75 and I-95, they really aren't justified either. Winter weather is winter weather; although a collision on a twinned highway would more than likely only close one direction. Better CMV driver and vehicle enforcement would have a bigger impact at much less cost. If you look at the length of highway a province can historically and realistically expand, a twinned TCH across northern Ontario is something your grandkids might enjoy.
 
People are emotionally vested in Poilievre being the bad guy regardless the scenario. A Conservative MP retires to go back to doing a job they love and Poilievre gets accused of bad leadership driving people from the party.

Whatever Poilievre does with Jivani will be wrong and proof he needs to be replaced etc. etc. etc.

He should go, but the unhealthy fixation the media and those on the left have with him rivals their TDS.
 
There's a reason why Manitoba argued in the late 19th century to retain a chunk of what's now Northern Ontario.
Also why every so often you hear quiet little mutters of separation for Northern Ontario .
The general feeling amongst some in that happy little region is they could fall off the face of the earth and would take weeks for Toronto and Queen's Park to notice.
Kenora is rightful Manitoba rocks, not Ontario rocks! 😉
 
A few points:

Expanding the Port of TBay would be a great idea - provided that enough blue water ships are willing to show up. If you are thinking of shipping petroleum, I don't know if there would be much enthusiasm for Seawaymax tankers and LNG ships. I can see more potash being bulk shipped.

In addition to the lock at SSM, a number of the St. Lawrence Seaway lock are on the US side as well.

CPKC used to be continuously double tracked west of TBay but it no longer is. I guess they found that with better signalling, train management and longer trains it was no longer needed. CN hasn't operated east of TBay in years, and their line from the west goes through the US. Seeing as they are both private, for-profit corporations, I guess the decision would be theirs.

SSM doesn't really have a lot of space for a significant port expansion, certain not without gutting its downtown.

Twinning the TCH might make for a safer, less stressful drive, but the traffic volumes certainly don't support it. If you look at the traffic volumes on the northern portions of I-75 and I-95, they really aren't justified either. Winter weather is winter weather; although a collision on a twinned highway would more than likely only close one direction. Better CMV driver and vehicle enforcement would have a bigger impact at much less cost. If you look at the length of highway a province can historically and realistically expand, a twinned TCH across northern Ontario is something your grandkids might enjoy.
A lot of potash is shipped from Thunder Bay. Thunder Bay's issue is that it can't compete with Duluth which has superior infrastructure and investment in basically every way.

There is actually an investor from Duluth who bought an old terminal in Thunder Bay and is redeveloping it. I have also heard that this investor wants to redevelop a rail line from Duluth to Thunder Bay. This business has received a lot of flak and the LIUNA is none to happy that they are "stealing" their work.

There are a lot of entrenched interests in Canada that impede investment and competition.
 
People are emotionally vested in Poilievre being the bad guy regardless the scenario. A Conservative MP retires to go back to doing a job they love and Poilievre gets accused of bad leadership driving people from the party.

Whatever Poilievre does with Jivani will be wrong and proof he needs to be replaced etc. etc. etc.
Even if this narrative were true, there are different tiers of villian.
 
A lot of potash is shipped from Thunder Bay. Thunder Bay's issue is that it can't compete with Duluth which has superior infrastructure and investment in basically every way.

There is actually an investor from Duluth who bought an old terminal in Thunder Bay and is redeveloping it. I have also heard that this investor wants to redevelop a rail line from Duluth to Thunder Bay. This business has received a lot of flak and the LIUNA is none to happy that they are "stealing" their work.

There are a lot of entrenched interests in Canada that impede investment and competition.
Duluth-Superior's big advantage (not its only) is its proximity to the still-active iron mines in the Mesabi Range as well as the US 'breadbasket' states. Still, it's a fair point. Thunder Bay was a lot more active under the Crow Rate grain rules, and when Atikokan was still mining iron.

I wasn't aware there was a historic rail line between the two cities. The Duluth, Winnipeg and Pacific is now mostly CN and heads to International Falls/Fort Francis. The Port Arthur, Duluth and Western never made it past being a shortline and didn;t cross into the US as far as I know.

Outside of Thunder Bay, there are several protected deep water harbours on the Canadian side.
 
And now Trump is threatening 50 percent tariffs on all vehicles, and steel as of January 1st.

Onto the escalation elevator we go.
 
And now Trump is threatening 50 percent tariffs on all vehicles, and steel as of January 1st.

Onto the escalation elevator we go.
I expected Trump to start threatening more 50% Tariffs on things regardless of getting a trade deal or not.
 
Ships Company stand by for heavy rolls.

View attachment 101909
doctor who rory!!! GIF
 
There is not much point fighting the battle simply dollar-for-dollar, if that is what is proposed. Canada is on the wrong side of scale (population, outputs), and as always, tariffs are self-inflicted damage. (We can hurt ourselves greatly, without enough tangible effect, by proceeding haphazardly.) Canada must respond asymmetrically; there are definitely some commodities by which maximum pressure can be applied.

All the rules of competitive endeavour (eg. principles of war) will apply. Correctly identify vital points and corresponding measures of success, select aims, and maintain them. It seems manifestly obvious that any country can fight this kind of battle smarter than an administration led by Trump and acolytes such as Lutnick. Resolve is paramount; once something is started, follow through. There will not be any reasonable excuses for failing to anticipate the pain on our side and caving to domestic discontent. Then we are just weak, and seen to be so, and expected to be so.
 
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