CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Good2Golf]

And aluminum inventories in the U.S. also under stress.

 

[HavokFour]

If you wear diapers I guess you don't have to worry about a toilet paper shortage.

Wiped out: US faces surging toilet paper prices amid trade war with Canada

Paper products among hardest-hit sectors after trade negotiations broke down, with 25-50% tariffs estimated

www.theguardian.com

Hell of a combo with the dookie lettuce problem still ongoing.

 

[mariomike]

Trump’s now big mad at Ford. Funny stuff.

View attachment 101911

Not a tariff SME . But , his comment on "the late, great Rob Ford" RIP caught my attention.

At least - Rob's government - took Public Safety seriously by removing his power to govern during a State of Emergency.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I wonder at this point do Canadians even want a trade agreement; or are we/they happy to live in a land of tariffs and counter tariffs from now on ?

 

[PrairieFella]

I wonder at this point do Canadians even want a trade agreement; or are we/they happy to live in a land of tariffs and counter tariffs from now on ?

I think Canadians would like to maintain independent foreign policy as a start. We can get cozy with free trade again once that isnt being floated.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I wonder at this point do Canadians even want a trade agreement; or are we/they happy to live in a land of tariffs and counter tariffs from now on ?

Depends
Sit out the next 2yrs with CUSMA hobbling along until Trump is gone and roll the dice that whoever comes next is willing to play ball and follow the rules, or, attempt to sign something and then hold our breath that it doesn’t get ripped up over the next 27 months.
Sitting out for 27 months means that the 2nd WC pipeline should be approved and hopefully have shovels in the ground, this will gain us move leverage with who ever come next. Add in 2 more LNG facilities on the WC moving forwards and that’s a nice trifecta in our back pocket.

 

[childs56]

I wonder at this point do Canadians even want a trade agreement; or are we/they happy to live in a land of tariffs and counter tariffs from now on ?

In all honeslty when I look at what goods I buy from America and its direct influence on my day to day life I think I can live without buying from them. Why ship from China, land in the US, repackage the product and then ship to me. We have a port on the West coast that many of those products come into and are then distributed to the US then back to us.
What I have realized is how many repackaged products and or final assembly is done in the US that can be done anywhere for arguments sake.
The question to be asked is can the US find alternative resouces for Canadian raw materials? Especially the critical minerals they need for to keep their economy going?
Or do we do like the US does already and sell to the third party, have them relabel the product and they can sell it to the US?

 

[MilEME09]

Depends
Sit out the next 2yrs with CUSMA hobbling along until Trump is gone and roll the dice that whoever comes next is willing to play ball and follow the rules, or, attempt to sign something and then hold our breath that it doesn’t get ripped up over the next 27 months.
Sitting out for 27 months means that the 2nd WC pipeline should be approved and hopefully have shovels in the ground, this will gain us move leverage with who ever come next. Add in 2 more LNG facilities on the WC moving forwards and that’s a nice trifecta in our back pocket.

If we continue to diversify strongly to other nations to reduce the US portion of our trade to under 50%, when US trade does normalize, be it once Trump is gone, or after the mid terms if a democrat congress pulls him under a short leash. Canada would be looking at a very strong economy going into the 30s

 

[Altair]

I wonder at this point do Canadians even want a trade agreement; or are we/they happy to live in a land of tariffs and counter tariffs from now on ?

I think Canadians are willing to embrace any level of suck when the alternative is surrendering our economic sovereignty to the USA.

And to those across the country who still cannot access bourbon I say, never in the field of human drinking was so much owed by so many to so few.

 

[QV]

Highest growth in G7 per OECD this year so far...maybe look into your sources before spouting them off without evidence. I dont doubt you saw something from the Fraser Institute, but they arent exactly known to be non-partisan.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in the OECD area increased slightly to 0.5% in Q2 2026, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter, according to provisional estimates (Figure 1). This reflected a mixed picture across the 30 OECD countries for which data were available. In Q2 2026, 27 countries recorded growth, but at varying rates, while 3 saw no change in GDP.

GDP growth in the G7 slowed to 0.3% in Q2 2026, down from 0.4% in Q1, reflecting slower growth in five G7 countries: Germany, from 0.4% to 0.2%; Italy, from 0.3% to 0.2%; Japan, from 0.5% to 0.3%; the United Kingdom, from 0.6% to 0.4%; and the United States, from 0.5% to 0.4%. In Japan, the slowdown mainly reflected stagnant private consumption, destocking and a decline in investment. In the United Kingdom, weaker private consumption and a decline in government consumption weighed on economic activity. In the United States, slower growth mainly reflected weaker export growth, destocking and a decrease in government consumption. By contrast, growth in Canada accelerated from zero in Q1 to 0.8% in Q2. In France, GDP returned to growth (0.2%) in Q2, following a contraction of 0.1% in Q1.

Also from OECD.

GDP growth is expected to strengthen over 2026 and 2027, reaching 1.2% and 1.7% respectively, as the economy recovers from the 2025 trade‑related slowdown triggered by higher US tariffs.

If you go back to my quote you will note I said "long-term".

I also note you stopped quoting OECD data after 2027. What does the OECD say long-term?

 

[Altair]

If you go back to my quote you will note I said "long-term".

I also note you stopped quoting OECD data after 2027. What does the OECD say long-term?

How does one predict long term when the largest economy on the planet doesn't know what its doing tariff wise one week to the next?

 

[PrairieFella]

If you go back to my quote you will note I said "long-term".

I also note you stopped quoting OECD data after 2027. What does the OECD say long-term?

I dont know, you didnt post your source. I googled canada oecd and thats what came up. Onus is on you brah.

 

[Altair]

I dont know, you didnt post your source. I googled canada oecd and thats what came up. Onus is on you brah.

Source is either I made it up or its old stuff peddled by some rage bait youtuber cos playing as news.

 

[QV]

Sorry brah you're on your own. Keep on believing.

 

[Altair]

Sorry brah you're on your own. Keep on believing.

Called it.

Source is either I made it up or its old stuff peddled by some rage bait youtuber cos playing as news.

 

[Eaglelord17]

I think Canadians are willing to embrace any level of suck when the alternative is surrendering our economic sovereignty to the USA.

I am not sure of that. It is easy to stand firm when your not directly affected, and generally CUSMA has protected most Canadians. It is one thing to hear in the news a few thousand Canadian jobs were lost vs being the one losing the job or knowing people losing their jobs.

Some of these most recent tariffs violate that agreement. If some of that document isn’t being honoured you can be sure they are willing to violate any part of it.

Most Canadians haven’t been directly affected by these tariffs so far, it has mostly been someone else taking the brunt (like my industry) with the majority left alone. These most recent tariffs are more spread out and likely to harm more people. The government can’t keep subsidizing/protecting businesses forever so at some point we will hit a tipping point.

That being said Trump is also on a timeline too, midterms are coming up as well as lawsuits against his tariffs.

I do think waiting is the right approach, I just disagree with the argument that Canadians will put up with anything, most haven’t even been directly harmed yet.

 

[Altair]

I am not sure of that. It is easy to stand firm when your not directly affected, and generally CUSMA has protected most Canadians. It is one thing to hear in the news a few thousand Canadian jobs were lost vs being the one losing the job or knowing people losing their jobs.

Some of these most recent tariffs violate that agreement. If some of that document isn’t being honoured you can be sure they are willing to violate any part of it.

Most Canadians haven’t been directly affected by these tariffs so far, it has mostly been someone else taking the brunt (like my industry) with the majority left alone. These most recent tariffs are more spread out and likely to harm more people. The government can’t keep subsidizing/protecting businesses forever so at some point we will hit a tipping point.

That being said Trump is also on a timeline too, midterms are coming up as well as lawsuits against his tariffs.

I do think waiting is the right approach, I just disagree with the argument that Canadians will put up with anything, most haven’t even been directly harmed yet.

Again, if the alternative is becoming a economic vassal state to America, I think most Canadians would embrace the suck.

As for CUSMA, we have 10 years to prepare for its death. Thats a lot of time to build east west infrastructure and prepare to push our goods to Japan, China, India and the EU

Because as Gavin Newsom has so lovingly pointed out,

https://twitter.com/x/status/2092450754866942155

 

[PrairieFella]

Sorry brah you're on your own. Keep on believing.

Ok lol. Weird.

 

[Genetk44]

And thats fine but I disagree with publicly saying its off the table. By putting it off the table, america may see it as a weakness to exploit

I agree…it shouldn’t be discussed in those terms publicly.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Again, if the alternative is becoming a economic vassal state to America, I think most Canadians would embrace the suck.

As for CUSMA, we have 10 years to prepare for its death. Thats a lot of time to build east west infrastructure and prepare to push our goods to Japan, China, India and the EU

Because as Gavin Newsom has so lovingly pointed out,

https://twitter.com/x/status/2092450754866942155

Except they are already violating CUSMA, the 10 years is notional now.

The time to prepare was decades ago, the next best time is immediately. Unfortunately by time we talk to everyone we have to talk to, get provinces on board, etc. that 10 years will have passed and we won’t have put a single stake in the ground.

We lose over 200 billion a year just because of inter-provincial tariffs and that should be the easiest thing to deal with because it is all 100% within Canadian control.