CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Altair]

Except they are already violating CUSMA, the 10 years is notional now.

Yup. Free trade with America is on its final legs.

The time to prepare was decades ago, the next best time is immediately. Unfortunately by time we talk to everyone we have to talk to, get provinces on board, etc. that 10 years will have passed and we won’t have put a single stake in the ground.

We really need to get out of the mindset that things will go back to normal after the midterms, or after the 2028 election. Thats what's holding people back. It is why you have Doug Ford Prostrating himself on American news networks every month, begging for things to go back to normal.

Normal is gone, dead. The sooner that is accepted, the sooner we realize that as a country we need to move fast.

We lose over 200 billion a year just because of inter-provincial tariffs and that should be the easiest thing to deal with because it is all 100% within Canadian control.

Free trade deals take time to work out. The provinces are like mini nation states, they will need time to work this out. The good news is that in a year and a half since Carney came on the scene, great strides have been made. In the fullness of time, more strides will be made. But I look at it this way. The EU has been around for 33 years, and it still doesn't have frictionless free trade. These things take time.

 

[HavokFour]

Canadian media picking up one of the more obvious elephants in the room.

Most of U.S. aluminum comes from Canada. Industry says ‘good luck’ replacing it

Canada’s aluminum industry is not worried about U.S. tariffs continuing into the new year.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Altair]

Canadian media picking up one of the more obvious elephants in the room.

Most of U.S. aluminum comes from Canada. Industry says ‘good luck’ replacing it

Canada’s aluminum industry is not worried about U.S. tariffs continuing into the new year.

www.ctvnews.ca

Yup. And the main source the USA pivoted to was middle east Aluminium, which has been heavily disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Add to that the USA doesn't have the cheap electricity to produce large amounts of Aluminium at scale, and it explains why the price per ton in the USA is a insane 2000 more than in Canada or the EU, roughly double.

Considering everything Aluminium is used for....I cannot help but laugh at how monumentally stupid this administration is. It fights trade wars about as well as it fights actual wars...not well!

 

[Altair]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/saskatchewan/cp-newsalert-saskatchewans-moe-announces-50-retaliatory-tax-on-us-booze/article_cc581c8a-059c-58fe-b3c5-d41edccade63.html

Baby steps, Sask, but welcome to the fight.

PRINCE ALBERT - Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says the province will impose a reciprocal tax on American alcohol.
He says starting Sept. 8, Saskatchewan will impose the 50 per cent fee.
The U.S. recently implemented a 50 per cent tariff on Canadian alcohol products and a range of other goods.
Moe says the province’s tax on American products will support Saskatchewan producers.

 

[PrairieFella]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/saskatchewan/cp-newsalert-saskatchewans-moe-announces-50-retaliatory-tax-on-us-booze/article_cc581c8a-059c-58fe-b3c5-d41edccade63.html

Baby steps, Sask, but welcome to the fight.

The fact that Scott Moe is finally getting involved leads me to believe whatever terms the Yanks gave us were so egregious he couldnt play the "be diplomatic" card anymore

 

[Brad Sallows]

We lose over 200 billion a year just because of inter-provincial tariffs and that should be the easiest thing to deal with because it is all 100% within Canadian control.

Foot-dragging on inter-provincial protectionism is the indicator that there is not really a "crisis". Provinces are still putting some of their preferred policies at the front of the line and hoping either the federal government or other provinces will take measures to decrease costs.

 

[Furniture]

Foot-dragging on inter-provincial protectionism is the indicator that there is not really a "crisis". Provinces are still putting some of their preferred policies at the front of the line and hoping either the federal government or other provinces will take measures to decrease costs.

Part of the problem is the same problem faced by Canada when dealing with America.

If we dropped all trade barriers, Quebec and Ontario would dominate Atlantic Canada, and likely a fair portion of the rest of the country. Eg. Just like Canadians don't want their all food to come from America, Islanders don't want all their food to come from Ontario. For the simple reason that when food gets short, the trucks won't be leaving America/Ontario.

That's why there is negotiation, and some trade barriers are unlikely to ever disappear completely.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Part of the problem is the same problem faced by Canada when dealing with America.

If we dropped all trade barriers, Quebec and Ontario would dominate Atlantic Canada, and likely a fair portion of the rest of the country. Eg. Just like Canadians don't want their all food to come from America, Islanders don't want all their food to come from Ontario. For the simple reason that when food gets short, the trucks won't be leaving America/Ontario.

That's why there is negotiation, and some trade barriers are unlikely to ever disappear completely.

I would if the people of Rhode Island think that about Texas or if North Dakota thinks that about California?

 

[Furniture]

I would if the people of Rhode Island think that about Texas or if North Dakota thinks that about California?

I'm guessing there are more internal trade barriers there than people imagine as well...

As it turns out, people don't like being overly dependant on "others" who are far away and don't necessarily share the same interests.

Edit: Given the relatively recent proliferation of refrigeration, trucking and the industrialization of farming, would the populations of smaller states have made the same choice to go along with an open market? Even until the '80s smaller farms and local crop production was the norm. Knowing what people know now, would the same choices be made? particularly in light of the recent issues with eggs down south...

 

[Eaglelord17]

Foot-dragging on inter-provincial protectionism is the indicator that there is not really a "crisis". Provinces are still putting some of their preferred policies at the front of the line and hoping either the federal government or other provinces will take measures to decrease costs.

I think there is a looming crisis, just that our politicians are doing what they do best, protecting their personal interests over the country’s. And like usual we will be hit hard by it when it fully hits.

Carney I do believe is doing the best he can do, the issue is fighting the system which is intentionally designed to be difficult to dismantle or modify.

Part of the problem is the same problem faced by Canada when dealing with America.

If we dropped all trade barriers, Quebec and Ontario would dominate Atlantic Canada, and likely a fair portion of the rest of the country. Eg. Just like Canadians don't want their all food to come from America, Islanders don't want all their food to come from Ontario. For the simple reason that when food gets short, the trucks won't be leaving America/Ontario.

That's why there is negotiation, and some trade barriers are unlikely to ever disappear completely.

Quebec is the number one issue with most of it, they just do everything differently and often to a lower standard than the rest of the country. Makes it very difficult to work with them.

My brother worked in selling valves and parts for a while to industry. Part of that was the certification and certificates involved in the valves, QC, etc.

Alberta had the highest standards by far. Ontario wasn’t bad not as high as Alberta but still tracking lots of things. Quebec didn’t care whatsoever about any of that they just physically wanted the item the rest of the paperwork be damned.

 

[McG]

As it turns out, people don't like being overly dependant on "others" who are far away and don't necessarily share the same interests.

Do you have any sources to support your conjecture? I suspect most people spend more time looking at price rather than province of origin when buying food. On the other hand, the people who produce food do have an interest in trying to gain/protect any captive market.

 

[dapaterson]

XKCD for the win

Trade

xkcd.com

 

[Furniture]

Do you have any sources to support your conjecture? I suspect most people spend more time looking at price rather than province of origin when buying food. On the other hand, the people who produce food do have an interest in trying to gain/protect any captive market.

Do you really mean "Do you have an empirical peer reviewed study to back-up your opinion I disagree with?" If so, no... But I'm sure you have one to back-up your opinion that also covers food sovereignty, and particularities of the Canadian market with a special focus on Atlantic Canada.

Unless this was really a "STFU" disguised as enlightened discussion... which is as classic to Army.ca as the toques and gloves debate, or militia restructuring.

 

[brihard]

which is as classic to Army.ca as the toques and gloves debate

Knowing what people know now, would the same choices be made?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Part of the problem is the same problem faced by Canada when dealing with America.

If we dropped all trade barriers, Quebec and Ontario would dominate Atlantic Canada, and likely a fair portion of the rest of the country. Eg. Just like Canadians don't want their all food to come from America, Islanders don't want all their food to come from Ontario. For the simple reason that when food gets short, the trucks won't be leaving America/Ontario.

That's why there is negotiation, and some trade barriers are unlikely to ever disappear completely.

Intra-national trade is not comparable to international trade, unless a country has internal controls on the movement of its people and goods. Canada does not. Everyone can make a "protect my livelihood" argument, which is what I see almost all of the arguments in Canada reducing to; either everyone should be protected or no-one. Protect my dairy farm. Protect my winery. On and on.

 

[McG]

Do you really mean "Do you have an empirical peer reviewed study to back-up your opinion I disagree with?" If so, no... But I'm sure you have one to back-up your opinion that also covers food sovereignty, and particularities of the Canadian market with a special focus on Atlantic Canada.

Dude, i presented a counter hypothesis and used language that identified it as supposition. You presented your hypothesis with language that represented it as fact (“Turns out that …”). If you are going to get emotional when called out for presenting your assumptions as fact, then don’t present your assumptions as though they are facts.

 

[Furniture]

Knowing what people know now, would the same choices be made?

I think the key issue to drill down into is this; Did the toque get placed on the body before or after the gloves? If we had known that, maybe we would have made different choices.

Intra-national trade is not comparable to international trade, unless a country has internal controls on the movement of its people and goods. Canada does not. Everyone can make a "protect my livelihood" argument, which is what I see almost all of the arguments in Canada reducing to; either everyone should be protected or no-one. Protect my dairy farm. Protect my winery. On and on.

Agreed, but my argument wasn't about livelihoods, it was about protecting certain industries determined key/critical. In self-editing of my post I unfortunately deleted a point I made to that effect, mea cupla.

Originally I had written that there are lots of industries where a unified national standard makes a lot of sense(trucking, booze, etc.) , but protecting some key things like farming is more important that just economic efficiency.

There is an undeniable benefit to making markets as free as possible, there are also very real downsides to it, as evidenced by the egg issues in America. It's down to each person to determine if the downsides are worth the upsides, and I suspect that each person falls at a different place on that spectrum for each product/industry.

 

[Brad Sallows]

There is an undeniable benefit to making markets as free as possible, there are also very real downsides to it, as evidenced by the egg issues in America. It's down to each person to determine if the downsides are worth the upsides, and I suspect that each person falls at a different place on that spectrum for each product/industry.

I take a strong position against exceptions because otherwise attempts to raise productivity and allocate resources more efficiently wind up being nibbled to death by ducks.

 

[Furniture]

I take a strong position against exceptions because otherwise attempts to raise productivity and allocate resources more efficiently wind up being nibbled to death by ducks.

Fair enough, we all have a differing opinions on how much "freedom" should be allocated to everything, every day.

I'm very much a proponent of securing critical industries behind a solid fence of tariffs or exclusions, but I understand where the free trade absolutists are coming from.

I hope that wasn't too emotional for any of our compatriots....