Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Kirkhill]

I think it's far too early to be making declarations like that.

Things may have shifted for now, but Canadians are quite adept at ignoring the dangers of the world. We shouldn't pretend past behaviours are not an indicator of future ones.

Acting like this shift is permeant right now comes across as similar to those who declared the handshake dead in the peak of COVID. It went out of fashion for a while, but it's back to being the norm again.

Some years back I made the comment that managing defence in Canada was much like fly fishing for 20 lb fish on a 5 lb test. You never know when the line is going to break and you can't pull. You just have to let the fish run and pull in the slack when you can.

Now is one of those times to reel in hard and fast. Get what you can while it is on offer.

 

[ytz]

Its polling like this that scares me. And politicians will sacrifice anything to stay in power.

I don't see defence on there anywhere. Maybe the threat of China and Russia, 6% ? Even DJT has dropped to 5th place.

Realistic, no?

On a day to day basis I worry more about several of those top issues than China and Russia. And even from those nations, I worry more about information warfare, infrastructure attacks (cyber and underwater) than them landing troops on Canadian soil. Economic warfare with China is a much higher concern than a Chinese missile on the horizon.

It's not just Canadians thinking like this. Here's Gallup polling about issues that Americans are most concerned with in 2025. You won't see Russia and China high on there either.:

Worry About U.S. Economy, Healthcare, Social Security Surges

Majorities of Americans are highly concerned about financial issues, including the economy, healthcare costs, inflation and the federal budget deficit.

news.gallup.com

So yeah, we'll get to 2% mostly because defence is becoming a domestic stimulus program. I wouldn't expect much more.

 

[CBH99]

My apologies if this link was already posted, I realize it is from a few weeks ago.

 

[Jarnhamar]

My apologies if this link was already posted, I realize it is from a few weeks ago.

"We believe the CAF has the latest in technology"

 

[Halifax Tar]

Realistic, no?

On a day to day basis I worry more about several of those top issues than China and Russia. And even from those nations, I worry more about information warfare, infrastructure attacks (cyber and underwater) than them landing troops on Canadian soil. Economic warfare with China is a much higher concern than a Chinese missile on the horizon.

It's not just Canadians thinking like this. Here's Gallup polling about issues that Americans are most concerned with in 2025. You won't see Russia and China high on there either.:

Worry About U.S. Economy, Healthcare, Social Security Surges

Majorities of Americans are highly concerned about financial issues, including the economy, healthcare costs, inflation and the federal budget deficit.

news.gallup.com

So yeah, we'll get to 2% mostly because defence is becoming a domestic stimulus program. I wouldn't expect much more.

I appreciate your optimism.

 

[Maxman1]

I was there when the requirements were being written. All of that was done during the Harper years. Even circulation of draft RFPs. Only the competition itself was held in 2016. Do you really want to argue that new governments should simply restart procurements from scratch when elected?

I was referring to the selection process and lowering the testing standards to allow a noncompliant bid to win, just like the LSVW and CF-5.

 

[RangerRay]

The big difference I see is that back in the 80’s when the Mulroney government put out the White Paper, there were huge “peace demonstrations” (funded by Moscow) in every major city and critical editorials in most major news outlets. Opposition to the whiff of increased defence spending was real, which is why much of that White Paper disappeared. Now, I am not seeing anywhere near that level of public opposition, save for the odd Tankie artsy prof at some backwater university. Most editorials I’ve seen the last few years (even before Trump 2.0) called for more defence spending.

I am definitely sensing a change.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Some years back I made the comment that managing defence in Canada was much like fly fishing for 20 lb fish on a 5 lb test. You never know when the line is going to break and you can't pull. You just have to let the fish run and pull in the slack when you can.

Now is one of those times to reel in hard and fast. Get what you can while it is on offer.

Like 12 subs

 

[dapaterson]

Like 12 subs

To replace the twelve SSN Perrin Beatty delivered?

 

[ytz]

I was referring to the selection process and lowering the testing standards to allow a noncompliant bid to win, just like the LSVW and CF-5.

All that happened long (years) before the competition. When writing the SOR, 4 engine requirement was dropped, commonality was removed from consideration in bids, and the requirement to meet speed and range and payload simultaneously was removed as mandatory.

The government of the day was getting a ton of flack from industry for all the IORs. They decided, they weren't going to burn more political capital on this project. Ergo, the decision was to reduce requirements till the contest was competitive enough to get multiple bids, which Industry Canada could use to leverage maximum industrial benefits from bidders. That was a political choice.

And well, I guess continuity from the following government was a political choice too. Albeit fairly normal, for most procurements.