Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Good2Golf]

The Arrow is an interesting piece of the puzzle. But even the most staunch defender of the program has to admit there where a lot of ‘fitted for not with’ aspects to the Arrow that tend to get glossed over.

Canada made a decision at that time to hobble itself. Rather than either invest into the radar and fire control needed for it - or encourage a JV with an American partner like Raytheon to work the side of things Canada didn’t have for it.

Looking back in time, it is a fairly Canadian tragedy that basically sold out the defense sector to America. There is a lot of he said she said about pressures applied to the Avro Arrow cancellation, of which I have no doubt occurred — but the end of the day aspect is it was not a viable platform in a sole Canadian environment.

Canada to had three options, and honestly chose the worst IMHO.

COA 1: Dump a pile of GoC effort and money into radar, missiles and fire control for the Arrow. All of which had little domestic infrastructure at the time, and a relatively high risk for the program.

COA 2: Stand up a true North American consortium to deliver the entire program.

COA 3: Fold the tent and take an American umbrella.

COA 3 was picked, and as one can see the brain drain that occurred in those fields.

To me as I said above I think that was the worse option available, and I think COA 1 was the riskiest, and given the situation likely to be a dry hole with immense economic investment for zero return. It may have resulted in an Airframe that was either not viable - or required a huge American effort resulting in loss of control. I believe it would have been however preferable in hindsight than the fold the tent.

I try to be a realist in my looking back as a CAN/AM dual citizen. I think had Canada pushed the COA 2 that the relationship between both Canada and America would be vastly different and much more of a partnership that what it has unfortunately become.

My lenses have colored a bit recently as an American tax payer, as well as a former CAF member. For years the CAF was neglected by Canada (not just the GoC) that neglect also drained in Defence Infrastructure.

@Good2Golf when one talked about the US Defense Budget and how much goes to NATO, I know you are annoyed at America currently (and our current Administration certainly deserves a lot of anger). One need to understand that what placing an American soldier in Europe does. While POTUS and his clowns may talk about leaving (and have a history of poor decisions) Congress decides what really occurs in DoD, and as long as one American soldier sits in Europe it means that the entire weight of the US Military might will rein fire and brimstone on anyone that fucks with that.

Historically we have a bad habit of showing up late - those forward deployed troops ensure that we won’t do that again.

Agree COA 2 would have been the best option. When it comes to Canada own-goaling itself, turning down P5 membership remains ‘Peak Canuckvirtue.’

Congress controlling things?

 

[KevinB]

Agree COA 2 would have been the best option. When it comes to Canada own-goaling itself, turning down P5 membership remains ‘Peak Canuckvirtue.’

Congress controlling things?
View attachment 100426

I have more faith in the Senate, and I hope mid terms result in more adulting.

 

[Underway]

The Arrow is an interesting piece of the puzzle. But even the most staunch defender of the program has to admit there where a lot of ‘fitted for not with’ aspects to the Arrow that tend to get glossed over.

Canada made a decision at that time to hobble itself. Rather than either invest into the radar and fire control needed for it - or encourage a JV with an American partner like Raytheon to work the side of things Canada didn’t have for it.

There is a school of though that points to combat aerospace as being the "most expensive" of defence investments. It takes an enormous amount of resources to design and build fighter aircraft of quality. The reasoning is similar to the boom bust cycle of warship building in Canada. To keep that industry going you always need the next project, and countries at some point have to decide if they want to pay that cost.

 

[Good2Golf]

I have more faith in the Senate, and I hope mid terms result in more adulting.

Agree, upper house is slightly more adultish, and I think Trump’s 1776 Fund has made more than a few Sen(R) reconsider their past fealty…

 

[FJAG]

To keep that industry going you always need the next project, and countries at some point have to decide if they want to pay that cost.

I think that applies to most defence sector industries. The problem with the "next project" is Canada's reliance on orgy purchasing. Not 300 trucks per year but 2,000 as fast as possible with no "next contract" for twenty years thereafter. You couldn't build a better system to destroy an ongoing industry with. Sustainment and expansion capability of the domestic armaments industry needs to be built into each and every project.

 

[KevinB]

To keep that industry going you always need the next project, and countries at some point have to decide if they want to pay that cost.

Everyone pays the cost somehow. Sometimes it is paid in spades by future generations.