Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

[Altair]

Food for though on FPTP

Liberals needed 10 more seats to hit 170.

1
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley

CPC 17,336-LPC 17,312=34

2
NL
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame

CPC 14,925-LPC 14,661= 264

3
Châteauguay-Lacolle

BQ 18,368-LPC 17,762=602

4
King-Vaughan

CPC 22,529-LPC 21,457=1022

5
Longueuil-Saint-Hubert

BQ 23,579-LPC 21,930=1,649

6
South Surrey-White Rock

CPC 24,176-LPC 22,164=2,012

7
Edmonton Mill Woods

CPC 18,248- LPC 16,499=1,749

8
South Shore-St. Margarets

CPC 20,444- LPC 18,527=1,917

9
Peterborough-Kawartha

CPC 27,301-LPC 24,564=2,737

10
Niagara Falls

CPC 23,650-LPC 23,650=3,160

34+264+602+1,022+1,649 +2,012+1,749+1,917 +2,737+3,160= 15,146 to tie the winner of these riding. 1 more each to win it.

15156 votes away from 170 seats. All the LPC technically needed was their percentage of the popular vote to go from 32.6 to 32.7 and they are in government for 4 years. And don't think for a second the LPC doesn't know this. They will be targeting these ridings with everything they have next election.

FPTP. Fair. Ha.

 

[RangerRay]

Some analysis that suggests the PPC didn’t significantly affect the Tories.

Matt Gurney: The PPC surge was real, but it didn't hurt O'Toole (at least not much)

The PPC's rise is worth studying on its own merits, as a political and social movement. But it wasn't an election spoiler.

theline.substack.com

 

[McG]

FPTP is the most fair, in that it gives every candidate the same theoretical chance of election out of the gate.

Should “fair” be measured from the perspective of candidates competing for office, or from the perspective of voters who want to be represented in parliament?

 

[ModlrMike]

I would think the two are the same, if measured from "could" be represented perspective.

 

[Altair]

Althia Raj: We’re about to find out how many new seats there will be in Parliament. Then the fighting starts

On Friday, Elections Canada will announce the number of new seats each province will be allocated in the House of Commons, Althia Raj writes.

www.thestar.com

New seats!

Fun!

I know Alberta is due to get more, lets see how the rest break down

 

[Altair]

Althia Raj: We’re about to find out how many new seats there will be in Parliament. Then the fighting starts

On Friday, Elections Canada will announce the number of new seats each province will be allocated in the House of Commons, Althia Raj writes.

www.thestar.com

New seats!

Fun!

I know Alberta is due to get more, lets see how the rest break down

So Alberta gets 3 more seats, Ontario gets 1, BC gets 1,Quebec loses 1.

So

ON-122

QC-77

BC-43

AB-37

MB-14

SK-14

NS-11

NB-10

NL-7

PE-4

YK-1

NT-1

NV-1

Total=342

 

[Altair]

Federal Politics: Three-in-five Canadians would have preferred outcome of election held using proportional distribution -

Majority of each party’s voter base say their leaders should maintain position heading into next election October 15, 2021 – In an election where little changed, Canadians have been left searching for value from the exercise of their franchise. The vote result was near identical to that of two...

angusreid.org

For many, the election result would have provided more satisfaction had it been under a different seat allocation method. When shown the seat distribution under first-past-the-post (FPTP) proportional representation (PR) systems, three-in-five (61%) say they preferred the hypothetical makeup of the House under the latter.


Although a majority of Canadians (61%) would prefer the outcome of the 2021 election were it held under a proportional representation system, there are clear partisan differences. A majority of Liberal (70%) and Bloc Québécois (55%) supporters say they prefer the current seat distribution, compared with eight-in-ten CPC (78%) and NDP (80%) voters who say they prefer the opposite.

3 of 5 Canadians like PR more than FPTP and that's just with a binary FPTP vs PR and not a better system like MMP which merges the two.

But let's stick with FPTP. Why not.

 

[The Bread Guy]

3 of 5 Canadians like PR more than FPTP ....

Based on Angus Reid, 3 out of 5 would have liked the results the other system would have led to, not necessarily the other system.

People wanting a different result =/= people wanting a different way of doing things. I notice the question "what system of election do you prefer?" wasn't asked on this round.

Although the 3/5 want a different mix speaks volumes.

 

[Altair]

Based on Angus Reid, 3 out of 5 would have liked the results the other system would have led to, not necessarily the other system.

People wanting a different result =/= people wanting a different way of doing things. I notice the question "what system of election do you prefer?" wasn't asked on this round.

Although the 3/5 want a different mix speaks volumes.

A fair point.

As you said though, 3/5 liking the results of PR does speak volumes.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

How the left sees the new Cabinet

Trudeau's no longer waiting for Alberta to get the memo on climate change

If there's one clear message to come out of Trudeau's latest cabinet announcement, it's that Ottawa is preparing to press ahead on climate change, writes columnist Max Fawcett.

www.nationalobserver.com

The recent federal election may have returned a status quo Parliament, but the government’s new cabinet is anything but. Veteran ministers Marc Garneau and Jim Carr are out, new faces like Kamal Khera and Sean Fraser are in, and rising stars like Anita Anand and Mélanie Joly have been promoted into higher-profile positions on the government’s front bench. But if there’s one message that emerges most clearly from this changing of the guard, it’s that the Trudeau government is preparing to press ahead on climate change.

 

[dapaterson]

If rumours of Garneau being named as Ambassador to France pan out, it creates an opening for a star candidate in a safe Liberal riding in the resulting byelection.

 

[daftandbarmy]

How the left sees the new Cabinet

Trudeau's no longer waiting for Alberta to get the memo on climate change

If there's one clear message to come out of Trudeau's latest cabinet announcement, it's that Ottawa is preparing to press ahead on climate change, writes columnist Max Fawcett.

www.nationalobserver.com

The recent federal election may have returned a status quo Parliament, but the government’s new cabinet is anything but. Veteran ministers Marc Garneau and Jim Carr are out, new faces like Kamal Khera and Sean Fraser are in, and rising stars like Anita Anand and Mélanie Joly have been promoted into higher-profile positions on the government’s front bench. But if there’s one message that emerges most clearly from this changing of the guard, it’s that the Trudeau government is preparing to press ahead on climate change.

'Green Jesus'.... he's coming for you Alberta

Bell: Trudeau's Green Jesus on offence, Kenney scrambles in scandal​

The man once tagged as the Green Jesus of Montreal flogs his full-out fight against climate change undisturbed by a battered, bruised and unpopular Alberta government.

Steven Guilbeault, a.k.a. The Green Jesus of Montreal, so nicknamed by a newspaper in that city, a pull-out-all-the-stops green warrior, is a big man in our world.

He is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s new point man on the environment and climate change.

This is the dude who scaled Toronto’s CN Tower to hang a banner declaring Canada and former U.S. prez George W. Bush climate killers.

This is the dude who was part of a Greenpeace stunt to get up on the roof of then-premier Ralph Klein’s house in Calgary and hang signs and put on solar panels, succeeding in getting a lot of free ink for the cause.

This is the dedicated soldier against pipelines and Alberta oil.

This is a guy Premier Jason Kenney thinks might bring in a radical agenda causing mass unemployment. So the premier tells us Tuesday.

Bell: Trudeau's Green Jesus on offence, Kenney scrambles in scandal

It is clear Trudeau and his folks consider they hold a much better hand than Kenney, who's clearly floundering.

calgarysun.com

 

[The Bread Guy]

Should “fair” be measured from the perspective of candidates competing for office, or from the perspective of voters who want to be represented in parliament?

That would also depend on whether voters want a certain individual representing their "in their backyard" interests in the House versus whether voters want to pick the party that steers the ship until the next election. Some critics of FPTP say you get the former, but not the latter.

 

[QV]

'Green Jesus'.... he's coming for you Alberta

Bell: Trudeau's Green Jesus on offence, Kenney scrambles in scandal​

The man once tagged as the Green Jesus of Montreal flogs his full-out fight against climate change undisturbed by a battered, bruised and unpopular Alberta government.

Steven Guilbeault, a.k.a. The Green Jesus of Montreal, so nicknamed by a newspaper in that city, a pull-out-all-the-stops green warrior, is a big man in our world.

He is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s new point man on the environment and climate change.

This is the dude who scaled Toronto’s CN Tower to hang a banner declaring Canada and former U.S. prez George W. Bush climate killers.

This is the dude who was part of a Greenpeace stunt to get up on the roof of then-premier Ralph Klein’s house in Calgary and hang signs and put on solar panels, succeeding in getting a lot of free ink for the cause.

This is the dedicated soldier against pipelines and Alberta oil.

This is a guy Premier Jason Kenney thinks might bring in a radical agenda causing mass unemployment. So the premier tells us Tuesday.

Bell: Trudeau's Green Jesus on offence, Kenney scrambles in scandal

It is clear Trudeau and his folks consider they hold a much better hand than Kenney, who's clearly floundering.

calgarysun.com

What they do to Alberta will have a detrimental effect nationwide. One of these days most people will finally get that.

 

[Brad Sallows]

In other news, BoC has been talking about 3 rate hikes next year, and energy prices are one of the militating factors.

Good news for people with mortgages.

 

[daftandbarmy]

What they do to Alberta will have a detrimental effect nationwide. One of these days most people will finally get that.

The narrative seems pretty straightforward, and potentially explosively divisive:

Hub Explainer: Alberta’s $600-billion federal contribution leaves fairness in the eye of the beholder​

The feds raise more revenue from taxpayers in Alberta than elsewhere and also spends less

“Today our country is facing a national unity crisis,” said Conservative Party of Canada leader Erin O’Toole during an early July speech in Alberta. “It’s time for the unfairness to end. Since 1967, Albertans have contributed more than $600 billion to the rest of Canada … [and] even as your economy suffered with massive reductions in resource revenues, you as Albertans continued to pay more than your fair share.”

Provincial leaders in Alberta couldn’t agree more. “Alberta has been the engine of Canada’s prosperity in recent decades,” said Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney in a July 15 press conference. “We have contributed through our federal taxes over $600 billion to the rest of Canada… but what we find very frustrating is a system that finds us contributing on average $20 billion a year net through our federal taxes to other provinces even while we have been living through a prolonged recession.”

Hub Explainer: Alberta’s $600-billion federal contribution leaves fairness in the eye of the beholder

thehub.ca

 

[Jarnhamar]

Know who doesn't look crazy? Our minister of environment and climate change.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Know who doesn't look crazy? Our minister of environment and climate change.

View attachment 66942

Now, where have I seen that look before? Oh, I know....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

In other news, BoC has been talking about 3 rate hikes next year, and energy prices are one of the militating factors.

Good news for people with mortgages.

I don't know of any big projects that have started in the West since Bill C-69 came into force in 2019, the north of the Province is running on the projects approved under the CPC time and still under construction.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I don't know of any big projects that have started in the West since Bill C-69 came into force in 2019, the north of the Province is running on the projects approved under the CPC time and still under construction.

I follow the fortunes of the ill fated LNG industry in BC.

It's a sad tale of continually dashed hopes. They've got some staying power though... very plucky chaps!