Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

[Altair]

Means nothing.

It means this isn't some random poll anyone can participate in or with a insane amount of bias built into it.

Its a respected polling company putting out a poll using a methodology that is accepted, and has gotten decent results in recent memory.

I follow a lot of election results in Canada and the US, and there are often at least a couple of polls which manage to predict the final result in a race closely. If all a person sees is that, he might think the pollsters are awesome. But if he sees beyond that, he realizes there are a lot of darts, only a few land near the bullseye, and those aren't consistently from the same players.

Is this dart completely accurate? Maybe, maybe not. But lets not compare it with random polls hosted by news sites like CTV that get bandwagoned by one side or another. If this poll says that 69 and 65 percent of people support the emissions ban and coal export ban then it can reasonably be assumed that the true number is at least in the neighborhood of that.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Its a respected polling company putting out a poll using a methodology that is accepted, and has gotten decent results in recent memory.

Still means nothing. All sorts of respected polling companies put out polls using proper methodologies and end up with predictions outside or barely inside margins of error. A polling company can be reliable (always correctly employs methods) and still be frequently inaccurate because the final poll is the entire sample of people (eg. voters who cared to vote) taken at the moment they actually made a final decision (voted).

 

[Altair]

Still means nothing. All sorts of respected polling companies put out polls using proper methodologies and end up with predictions outside or barely inside margins of error. A polling company can be reliable (always correctly employs methods) and still be frequently inaccurate because the final poll is the entire sample of people (eg. voters who cared to vote) taken at the moment they actually made a final decision (voted).

So are you saying that a respected polling company that using accepted methodology that just put out a poll saying 69 percent of Canadians support emission caps and 65 support stopping coal exports means nothing because all polls mean nothing?

 

[Eaglelord17]

If you want accurate answer do what the Swiss do and have referendums on topics.

Polls aren't accurate, they can give a idea but they aren't always right. Brexit is a great example of the polls being completely wrong in recent memory.

 

[Brad Sallows]

So are you saying that a respected polling company that using accepted methodology that just put out a poll saying 69 percent of Canadians support emission caps and 65 support stopping coal exports means nothing because all polls mean nothing?

Without seeing the question, I don't know what the answers mean. Example:

Q: Do you favour emissions caps?

Q: Do you favour emissions caps if it will cost you, personally, 10% or more of your income?

 

[Altair]

Without seeing the question, I don't know what the answers mean. Example:

Q: Do you favour emissions caps?

Q: Do you favour emissions caps if it will cost you, personally, 10% or more of your income?

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Legers-North-American-Tracker-November-8th-2021.pdf

Canada currently mines about 60 million tonnes of coal and exports over 60% of that amount abroad. At the Climate Change Summit in Scotland—COP26, Canada announced a new policy to stop exporting coal by 2030 at the latest. Do you support or oppose this policy?

Strongly support-33 percent

Somewhat support-32 percent

Somewhat oppose-10 percent

Strongly oppose- 8 percent

Don't know- 17 percent

CTC848. At the Climate Change Summit in Scotland—COP26, Canada announced it will be the first major oil-producing country capping and reducing pollution from the oil and gas sector to net zero by 2050. Do you support or oppose this policy? Base: All respondents (n=1,565)

Strongly support-34 percent

Somewhat support-35 percent

Somewhat oppose-9 percent

Strongly oppose- 10 percent

Don't know- 13 percent

I mean, its a fairly standard question without leading the person answering and the results are not close. Thing is with echo chambers (like this place) of you only hear from the 18-20 percent of people who oppose emission caps and other environmental measures like carbon tax and what not, ones can think that they are the majority.

Polls like this show why the LPC, NDP, Bloc win as many seats as they do while the CPC are stuck around 33-34 percent of the popular vote, a large chunk of that isolated to places that oppose environmental measures.

 

[KevinB]

I mean, its a fairly standard question without leading the person answering and the results are not close. Thing is with echo chambers (like this place) of you only hear from the 18-20 percent of people who oppose emission caps and other environmental measures like carbon tax and what not, ones can think that they are the majority.

Not leading? I mean everyone would answer yes if they didn't understand the impacts to them...

Polls like this show why the LPC, NDP, Bloc win as many seats as they do while the CPC are stuck around 33-34 percent of the popular vote, a large chunk of that isolated to places that oppose environmental measures.

No it shows how many voters are totally uninformed.

 

[Altair]

Not leading? I mean everyone would answer yes if they didn't understand the impacts to them...

Well, here's the thing. If it were fair leading I would have "less" of a problem with it. If the question is do you support emissions caps, you get the answer you see above.

If you added do you support emissions caps if it cut your own income 10 percent. You get less people supporting it

if you added If you added do you support emissions caps if it cut your own income 10 percent, but it cuts emissions by (whatever amount) you get more still. And back and forth one goes.

its better to not lead a all than have a convoluted question that goes back and forth trying to cram as much information into the question as possible.

No it shows how many voters are totally uninformed.

I agree, the 18-20 percent opposed are uninformed, but democracy allows them to vote so why not poll them?

 

[Halifax Tar]

I miss him...

GOLDSTEIN: Stephen Harper is the adult in the room on climate change

It’s always refreshing to have an adult walk into the room when talking about Canada’s energy and climate change polices.

torontosun.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

I mean, its a fairly standard question without leading the person answering

No, it's the typical way in which questions are posed with insufficient information. Most benefits have a cost. The misleading way to ask about the popularity of a benefit is to neglect to mention the probable cost.

 

[KevinB]

Well, here's the thing. If it were fair leading I would have "less" of a problem with it. If the question is do you support emissions caps, you get the answer you see above.

If you added do you support emissions caps if it cut your own income 10 percent. You get less people supporting it

Duh

if you added If you added do you support emissions caps if it cut your own income 10 percent, but it cuts emissions by (whatever amount) you get more still. And back and forth one goes.

Do you really?

its better to not lead a all than have a convoluted question that goes back and forth trying to cram as much information into the question as possible.

It is better to have an educated panel/voter base - but hey whatever

I agree, the 18-20 percent opposed are uninformed, but democracy allows them to vote so why not poll them?

Aren't you the guy bitching about his housing costs?
How do you think this will go?

I mean seriously dude - you are like JT's fluffer around here - as soon as he goes soft - you are right tin there.

 

[Jarnhamar]

No it shows how many voters are totally uninformed.

I bet the majority of those polled don't even know what people do with coal.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I mean seriously dude - you are like JT's fluffer around here - as soon as he goes soft - you are right tin there.

Glad I was just drinking coffee and not good whisky. That was poignantly hilarious.

 

[dapaterson]

In a coal-free future, what will Santa give the infantry for Christmas?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

In a coal-free future, what will Santa give the infantry for Christmas?

Wood. The do it yourself coal kit

 

[Brad Sallows]

Looking forward to the decrease in emissions as people faced with increasing natural gas prices do the obvious and dust off their fireplaces and woodburning heaters.

 

[Altair]

I bet the majority of those polled don't even know what people do with coal.

good thing its coal exports.

 

[Altair]

In a coal-free future, what will Santa give the infantry for Christmas?

good thing its coal exports

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Looking forward to the decrease in emissions as people faced with increasing natural gas prices do the obvious and dust off their fireplaces and woodburning heaters.

Yup. Just got a load of wood in for the Man Cave.

 

[Navy_Pete]

In a coal-free future, what will Santa give the infantry for Christmas?

Edible crayons?

I like the triangular ones; they don't roll around.