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Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

Jarnhamar

Army.ca Myth
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OldSolduer

Army.ca Myth
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Ben Woodfinden: Freeland's 'manipulated' video on Twitter shows Liberals' desperation​

The Liberals have already cycled through all their favourite wedge issues, abortion, guns, and privatized health care

Similar to the faux pas pulled by the Conservatives when they mocked Chretien for his droopy mouth.
 

Remius

Army.ca Fixture
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Tom Mulcair writes a good piece here.


The fact that Trudeau is shopping for “wow” ideas after he called this election should be cause for concern for liberals.
 

Altair

Army.ca Fixture
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Tom Mulcair writes a good piece here.


The fact that Trudeau is shopping for “wow” ideas after he called this election should be cause for concern for liberals.
Well, they finally got around to a housing plan.

It's not half bad.

It's a week late though.
 

Oldgateboatdriver

Army.ca Veteran
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The fact that Trudeau is shopping for “wow” ideas after he called this election should be cause for concern for liberals.

I think Trudeau believed his own rhetoric: He honestly thought that "people" saw last Parliament as "dysfunctional" and it would ride him in on a red wave. Problem is the opposition questioning government policy and exploring missteps of the government, while exacting changes or improvements (as seen by the party exacting them) in minority Parliament is exactly how it is supposed to work. So, the expert who follow politics basically said "that's not true, it is working fine" and the people who don't follow politics except by quickly glancing at the papers or TV/on line articles reacted by saying "What the heck is he talking about? I've not seen anything like that anywhere".

So now he is fishing for the next big idea he can claim as the reason for the election. Problem is, while unusual, the other parties have released their platform right off the bat and as a result people know they have one and roughly what's in them, while the Libs will now release theirs right when the main concern of half the population will be dealing with a very uncertain back to school in the middle of the fourth wave and getting the kids back into school routine. People may well come out of this missing it and thinking the Libs never had a platform they ran on. That would not be surprising.

P.S.: Anybody noticed one little point deep in the CPC platform: O'Toole promised to start the subs replacement process in his first term. The naval aviator comes through.;)
 

SeaKingTacco

Army.ca Fixture
Donor
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I think Trudeau believed his own rhetoric: He honestly thought that "people" saw last Parliament as "dysfunctional" and it would ride him in on a red wave. Problem is the opposition questioning government policy and exploring missteps of the government, while exacting changes or improvements (as seen by the party exacting them) in minority Parliament is exactly how it is supposed to work. So, the expert who follow politics basically said "that's not true, it is working fine" and the people who don't follow politics except by quickly glancing at the papers or TV/on line articles reacted by saying "What the heck is he talking about? I've not seen anything like that anywhere".

So now he is fishing for the next big idea he can claim as the reason for the election. Problem is, while unusual, the other parties have released their platform right off the bat and as a result people know they have one and roughly what's in them, while the Libs will now release theirs right when the main concern of half the population will be dealing with a very uncertain back to school in the middle of the fourth wave and getting the kids back into school routine. People may well come out of this missing it and thinking the Libs never had a platform they ran on. That would not be surprising.

P.S.: Anybody noticed one little point deep in the CPC platform: O'Toole promised to start the subs replacement process in his first term. The naval aviator comes through.;)
Once a TACCO, always a TACCO!
 

Altair

Army.ca Fixture
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Jeeeesus. The CPC must have scared the Liberals on housing. Trudeau is throwing everything at this one. Some good ideas in here actually.

Step 1 Call an election

Step 2 Ignore hot button issues

Step 3 watch your numbers drop and CPC numbers rise

Step 4 Panic at the disco

Step 5 Canvas candidates for good ideas

Step 6 Have those candidates tell leadership that they are being yelled at about not having a plan for those locked out of the overheated housing market

Step 7 Actually come up with a plan

Step 8.....Profit?

Now if it were me, my plan would have been

Step 1 Don't call an election, but if I did

Step 2 Immediately address hot button issues and not try to win via wedge issues

Step 3 Profit.
 

Oldgateboatdriver

Army.ca Veteran
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Just one small problem, though: 90% of what he proposes is Provincially regulated, not Federal at all, so watch for Quebec, Alberta and Ontario to tell him to go take a flying leap.

On to top that, one of the main problems with building new houses or renovating them these days is a compound of two matters (I know, because I work for BMR, one of Quebec's major Hardware/builder's yard): First, the contractors have a hard time hiring enough trades; second: the Covid crisis around the world ( and particularly in China) means that the prices of building materials have shot up by more than 100% over the last year, and shortages will remain for a few years yet (I work in receiving. Before Covid, I used to have about 10% back-orders on most of my orders at delivery time. It has gone all the way up to near 60%, and now I am getting back to about 40%). We have client contractors right now who are taking 3 to 6 months pauses because their clients refuse to let them continue on a contract that would see the house delivered at 50 to 60 % higher price than the one evaluated a year ago when they contracted.

Also, and Trudeau seems to ignore that fact: House flippers are not the cause of house prices inflation running rampant. They are, in fact, one of the main source of renovated house and gentrification of dilapidated buildings. I can't even comprehend how a government run program could do the same. Flippers just know by experience what renovation make economic sense and sell. Similarly, they know which buildings can be so renovated as opposed to demolished. I am not convinced any government run program can figure that out ... unless they use flippers.
 

Altair

Army.ca Fixture
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Just one small problem, though: 90% of what he proposes is Provincially regulated, not Federal at all, so watch for Quebec, Alberta and Ontario to tell him to go take a flying leap.

On to top that, one of the main problems with building new houses or renovating them these days is a compound of two matters (I know, because I work for BMR, one of Quebec's major Hardware/builder's yard): First, the contractors have a hard time hiring enough trades; second: the Covid crisis around the world ( and particularly in China) means that the prices of building materials have shot up by more than 100% over the last year, and shortages will remain for a few years yet (I work in receiving. Before Covid, I used to have about 10% back-orders on most of my orders at delivery time. It has gone all the way up to near 60%, and now I am getting back to about 40%). We have client contractors right now who are taking 3 to 6 months pauses because their clients refuse to let them continue on a contract that would see the house delivered at 50 to 60 % higher price than the one evaluated a year ago when they contracted.

Also, and Trudeau seems to ignore that fact: House flippers are not the cause of house prices inflation running rampant. They are, in fact, one of the main source of renovated house and gentrification of dilapidated buildings. I can't even comprehend how a government run program could do the same. Flippers just know by experience what renovation make economic sense and sell. Similarly, they know which buildings can be so renovated as opposed to demolished. I am not convinced any government run program can figure that out ... unless they use flippers.
So this is the plan as far as I can gather.


  • new savings account for under 40s to buy their first home - they can save up to $40k and withdraw it tax free to buy
  • double first time home owners tax credit from $5k to $10k
  • force CMHM to slash mortgage insurance rates by 25%
  • rent-to-own program with $1 billion to create a pathway for renters to own in 5 years or less
  • build or repair (?) 1.4 million homes in four years by giving cities "new tools" to speed up constructions
  • $4 billion fund cities can use if they build "middle class homes"
  • $2.7 billion over 4 years to build or repair more affordable homes
  • money to convert empty office space to housing
  • some tax credit so people can add a 2nd unit to their home
  • more money for indigenous housing (no $ figure in article)
  • ban blind bidding, establish a legal right to "home inspection", demand banks give mortgage deferrals of up to 6 years if someone loses their job
  • 2 year ban on foreign buyers
  • expand the upcoming tax on vacant housing owned by non-resident and non-Canadians to include foreign-owned vacant land in large urban areas
  • anti flipping tax that requires properties to be held for at least 12 months

The savings plan needs more details.

Double first time home owners tax credit is decent, but we are working around the margins right now.

Slash mortgage insurance rates is decent, but so far these are all demand side issues, and if the under 40s start rushing the market, this will only drive up the prices more, throwing gasoline on the fire.

Rent to own worked in the UK, surprised to see them lift it from there.

If flippers go corporate and work with the cities, the major source of holding up rezoning and holding up development, this would be huge.

4 billion to fund cities might get cities on board, again, one of the chief architects of this crisis.

Convert office space to housing might be a good idea going forward with office spaces hollowing out due to the pandemic.

Ban blind bidding is provincial, but I think if the PM gets on the bully pulpit and blames provinces for the issue ( which is it) then that may force the provinces to budge.

2 year ban on foreign buying is stealing straight from the CPC, but a good optics policy. Might not help much, but its a big visible sign that they are trying to do something.

Taxing vacant housing is a no brainer right now.

Anti flipping is questionable. Not sure how this works, but again, if flippers go corporate then the effect might be mitigated.
 

Brad Sallows

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Push in more money, and hope that this is the one that defies all easily predictable outcomes for demand-side injections and somehow pushes prices down...
 

Altair

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Push in more money, and hope that this is the one that defies all easily predictable outcomes for demand-side injections and somehow pushes prices down...
There are some supply side commitments.

Working with cities, repurposing office space, banning foreign purchases, building 1.4 million homes.

Lets pray its enough to combat upping the demand side of things that would happen if this plan were implemented.
 

Infanteer

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Just one small problem, though: 90% of what he proposes is Provincially regulated, not Federal at all, so watch for Quebec, Alberta and Ontario to tell him to go take a flying leap.
That seems to be an issue - no focus on national issues, much focus on things that the Provinces are supposed to handle.

 

Brad Sallows

Army.ca Fixture
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  • new savings account for under 40s to buy their first home - they can save up to $40k and withdraw it tax free to buy
Demand-side, prices up. Wonder who has money they're not already putting into other tax-sheltered savings.
  • double first time home owners tax credit from $5k to $10k
Demand-side, prices up.
  • force CMHM to slash mortgage insurance rates by 25%
Demand-side, prices up. Canada (ultimately, taxpayers) on the hook for higher risks.
  • rent-to-own program with $1 billion to create a pathway for renters to own in 5 years or less
Demand-side, prices up.
  • build or repair (?) 1.4 million homes in four years by giving cities "new tools" to speed up constructions
Supply-side, prices down. But wishful thinking. New construction out in the Fraser Valley, for example, is a lot of row houses and 5/6 story condos. Who repairs homes, and in what time frame do they expect to repair and sell?
  • $4 billion fund cities can use if they build "middle class homes"
Demand-side, prices up. What masses of urban land are available that are within the price range of "middle class homes" rather than high-rise?
  • $2.7 billion over 4 years to build or repair more affordable homes
Demand-side, prices up.
  • money to convert empty office space to housing
If it already made financial sense and were permitted by zoning, it would already be done.
  • some tax credit so people can add a 2nd unit to their home
Rental suites are a good idea. Cities are officially hostile to unofficial suites, but only slighly intolerant. Also hostile to large homes with large families in them.
  • more money for indigenous housing (no $ figure in article)
Needed, but will not really affect market prices.
  • ban blind bidding, establish a legal right to "home inspection", demand banks give mortgage deferrals of up to 6 years if someone loses their job
Open process good idea. "Home inspection" worthless if "home inspectors" aren't bonded against mistakes. Mortgage deferrals is basically temporary expropriation and should be compensated.
  • 2 year ban on foreign buyers
Nice gesture, a very little pressure off, but not very effective.
  • expand the upcoming tax on vacant housing owned by non-resident and non-Canadians to include foreign-owned vacant land in large urban areas
If the point is to get people into vacant properties, the penalties should apply to everyone. This is mob appeasement.
  • anti flipping tax that requires properties to be held for at least 12 months
Works in opposition to policies designed to "repair homes".
 

Remius

Army.ca Fixture
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So Otoole is promising to give Unions a seat at corporate boards. And pass legislation to ensure pensions are protected before bonuses and creditors get their share if a company goes bankrupt.

i like that a lot.

The CPC is bordering on left of centre. I get that the LPC is worried but true dyed in the wool Conservatives must be wondering what the heck is going on. Maybe this why the PPC is seeing an uptick?
 

Altair

Army.ca Fixture
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  • new savings account for under 40s to buy their first home - they can save up to $40k and withdraw it tax free to buy
Demand-side, prices up. Wonder who has money they're not already putting into other tax-sheltered savings.
Agreed.
  • double first time home owners tax credit from $5k to $10k
Demand-side, prices up.
Agreed.
  • force CMHM to slash mortgage insurance rates by 25%
Demand-side, prices up. Canada (ultimately, taxpayers) on the hook for higher risks.
Agreed.
  • rent-to-own program with $1 billion to create a pathway for renters to own in 5 years or less
Demand-side, prices up.
Agreed.
  • build or repair (?) 1.4 million homes in four years by giving cities "new tools" to speed up constructions
Supply-side, prices down. But wishful thinking. New construction out in the Fraser Valley, for example, is a lot of row houses and 5/6 story condos. Who repairs homes, and in what time frame do they expect to repair and sell?
Agreed.
  • $4 billion fund cities can use if they build "middle class homes"
Demand-side, prices up. What masses of urban land are available that are within the price range of "middle class homes" rather than high-rise?
Disagree. Building new homes is supply side, prices down. Might lead to urban sprawl, but if the suburbs want it, they have the land, at least in places like Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Greater Toronto, Greater Montreal.
  • $2.7 billion over 4 years to build or repair more affordable homes
Demand-side, prices up.
Disagree, building or repair housing stock is supply side, prices down.
  • money to convert empty office space to housing
If it already made financial sense and were permitted by zoning, it would already be done.
It would also require rezoning, so again, might be something the feds start to pressure cities into, either way, supply side, prices down.
  • some tax credit so people can add a 2nd unit to their home
Rental suites are a good idea. Cities are officially hostile to unofficial suites, but only slighly intolerant. Also hostile to large homes with large families in them.
Agreed, supply side, prices down.
  • more money for indigenous housing (no $ figure in article)
Needed, but will not really affect market prices.
Agreed, and it wont
  • ban blind bidding, establish a legal right to "home inspection", demand banks give mortgage deferrals of up to 6 years if someone loses their job
Open process good idea. "Home inspection" worthless if "home inspectors" aren't bonded against mistakes. Mortgage deferrals is basically temporary expropriation and should be compensated.
Agreed.
  • 2 year ban on foreign buyers
Nice gesture, a very little pressure off, but not very effective.
Agreed.
  • expand the upcoming tax on vacant housing owned by non-resident and non-Canadians to include foreign-owned vacant land in large urban areas
If the point is to get people into vacant properties, the penalties should apply to everyone. This is mob appeasement.
Agreed. Low hanging populist fruit.
  • anti flipping tax that requires properties to be held for at least 12 months
Works in opposition to policies designed to "repair homes".
Agreed.
 
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