Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

[daftandbarmy]

The end of the day, there needs to be a GLOBAL culture shift to do anything meaningful - a carbon tax in Canada isn't going to do diddly in the grand scheme - and while it can be great to be a roll model - there needs to be pressure on the worst offenders (again see China) before anything that actually means more than a hill of beans.

Chinese coal consumption and US Steel production - quite the contribution. Regardless, although the COVID crisis is responsible for huge drops in industrial activity and CO2 emissions it's only likely to be temporary.

At this rate the 'climate pearl clutchers' are going to need a few new strings.

Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement​

The estimated decrease in daily fossil CO2 emissions from the severe and forced confinement of world populations of –17% (–11 to –25%) at its peak are extreme and probably unseen before. Still, these only correspond to the level of emissions in 2006. The associated annual decrease will be much lower (–4.2 to –7.5% according to our sensitivity tests), which is comparable to the rates of decrease needed year-on-year over the next decades to limit climate change to a 1.5 °C warming32,33. These numbers put in perspective both the large growth in global emissions observed over the past 14 years and the size of the challenge we have to limit climate change in line with the Paris Climate Agreement.

Furthermore, most changes observed in 2020 are likely to be temporary as they do not reflect structural changes in the economic, transport or energy systems. The social trauma of confinement and associated changes could alter the future trajectory in unpredictable ways34, but social responses alone, as shown here, would not drive the deep and sustained reductions needed to reach net-zero emissions. Scenarios of low-energy and/or material demand explored for climate stabilization explicitly aim to match reduced demand with higher well-being34,35, an objective that is not met by mandatory confinements. Still, opportunities exist to set structural changes in motion by implementing economic stimuli aligned with low carbon pathways.

Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement - Nature Climate Change

COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns have altered global energy demands. Using government confinement policies and activity data, daily CO2 emissions have decreased by ~17% to early April 2020 against 2019 levels; annual emissions could be down by 7% (4%) if normality returns by year end (mid-June).

www.nature.com

 

[Altair]

Check out newsletters like this or this pointing you to free or cheap-cheap Kindle books. True, I find most of them not to my taste, but I get 1-2 a week that're worth it to me to spend $2-5 bucks on, even if they end up letting me down. If you're interested in older stuff, it's all free here & here, too.

I will take a look at this for sure.

I'm reading a bunch of older stuff that I'm catching up on and re reading and new stuff that is currently coming out, so either way, I'm sure this will be beneficial to me. Many thanks

 

[Altair]

The aim is to reduce worldwide emissions. Contracting our economy a little may not be the best way of achieving the aim. Activities which increase net emissions here can lower net emissions worldwide.

Yeah, I'm not sure on the branding there.

Canada: let us pollute more so that you can pollute less.

Collaborative is collaborative. Let China work on its own emmisions and let us work on our own. We have a goal, 30 percent less emmisions, let's just buckle down and do it.

So again, unless you can think of another way to drop emmisions in Canada by 30 percent that doesn't include a carbon tax, then a carbon tax it is. I've Waite years to see how the CPC would round that square peg only for them to come up with their own carbon tax which goes to show that there is one best course of action with that goal in mind.

 

[Good2Golf]

Global coal consumption: China 51.7% - India 11.8% - US 7.2% (link p.48)Chinese coal consumption and US Steel production - quite the contribution. Regardless, although the COVID crisis is responsible for huge drops in industrial activity and CO2 emissions it's only likely to be temporary.

Don’t forget India…

Global coal consumption: China 51.7% - India 11.8% - US 7.2%

The top three countries rollin’ coal burn 70.3% of the entire globe’s coal. Throw in Japan and its high-grade steel production at 4.9% and that’s 3/4 of the world’s coal compared to the remaining 185 countries.

Canada is a relatively minor dirty emissions player at 0.6% coal, so it would take A LOT of carbon tax, no doubt pushed down to the consumer for the lost part, to have little more than a tiny scratch in the emissions contribution…

 

[daftandbarmy]

Don’t forget India…

Global coal consumption: China 51.7% - India 11.8% - US 7.2%

The top three countries rollin’ coal burn 70.3% of the entire globe’s coal. Throw in Japan and its high-grade steel production at 4.9% and that’s 3/4 of the world’s coal compared to the remaining 185 countries.

Canada is a relatively minor dirty emissions player at 0.6% coal, so it would take A LOT of carbon tax, no doubt pushed down to the consumer for the lost part, to have little more than a tiny scratch in the emissions contribution…

Meanwhile, we can't get any of our almost bottomless supply of LNG - which is a lower carbon option than coal - out the door to the world because the enviro-trash are (ironically) too busy protesting about it.

 

[Good2Golf]

Meanwhile, we can't get any of our almost bottomless supply of LNG - which is a lower carbon option than coal - out the door to the world because the enviro-trash are (ironically) too busy protesting about it.

Yup…see how much LNG (blue line) is exported from Canada to the world? (Same BP link). To quote Jean ‘EH-101’ Chretien….”zero…zip…zilch…nada…”. So much for growing the economy AND helping others “do better” towards the 2050 Paris Accord goals…

 

[daftandbarmy]

Yup…see how much LNG (blue line) is exported from Canada to the world? (Same BP link). To quote Jean ‘EH-101’ Chretien….”zero…zip…zilch…nada…”. So much for growing the economy AND helping others “do better” towards the 2050 Paris Accord goals…
View attachment 66746

OMG....

 

[Brad Sallows]

Yeah, I'm not sure on the branding there.

I'll just add yours to the growing set of data points that disprove "climate change is a crisis". It's not a crisis if people are worried about the "branding" and unwilling to be relentlessly objective in the quest to reduce total worldwide emissions.

 

[Altair]

I'll just add yours to the growing set of data points that disprove "climate change is a crisis". It's not a crisis if people are worried about the "branding" and unwilling to be relentlessly objective in the quest to reduce total worldwide emissions.

Reducing global emmisions is simple.

Everyone reduce it by 30 percent. Solved.

If Canada does that followed by France and USA, and Germany, and Japan, and South Africa, and Brazil, and everyone else, guess what happens? Global emmisions are reduced by 30 percent.

Woooooo!

Math is hard, I know.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Everyone reduce it by 30 percent. Solved.

So you prefer to wish the problem away. Good luck with that. King Canute has a demonstration for you. Just interpret "nature" as "demos".

We know that substitution of natural gas for coal reduces net emissions, because it has been done.

Discouraging a proven solution - which rigid quotas based on political boundaries does - is stupid to the bone.

 

[Altair]

So you prefer to wish the problem away. Good luck with that. King Canute has a demonstration for you. Just interpret "nature" as "demos".

We know that substitution of natural gas for coal reduces net emissions, because it has been done.

Discouraging a proven solution - which rigid quotas based on political boundaries does - is stupid to the bone.

I guess the Paris accord, signed by 191 nations, is stupid then.

 

[KevinB]

I guess the Paris accord, signed by 191 nations, is stupid then.

Yes - because it simply wasn't going to happen.

Goals are great - but realistic goals are more important - and even more important are realistic enforceable goals.

 

[Altair]

Yes - because it simply wasn't going to happen.

Goals are great - but realistic goals are more important - and even more important are realistic enforceable goals.

Paris agreement- everyone reduce emmisions!

Army.ca- everyone but Canada reduce emmisions!

 

[Remius]

Paris agreement- everyone reduce emmisions!

Army.ca- everyone but Canada reduce emmisions!

There are several alternatives to the Paris Accord that might offer real effects.

https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/2016-10_paris-agreement-beyond_v4.pdf

P. 75 to 79 if you want to skip the rest.

So focusing on bi lateral or small group efforts. As opposed to trying to get everyone on board with zero enforcement.

Also the concept of “climate clubs”.

 

[QV]

Paris agreement- everyone reduce emmisions!

Army.ca- everyone but Canada reduce emmisions!

Wrong

Paris Accord: everyone reduce emissions except China

Everyone else: yay! Ok!

Trump: We‘re out.

 

[ModlrMike]

A goal without a plan is just a wish.
- Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

 

[Altair]

Wrong

Paris Accord: everyone reduce emissions except China

Everyone else: yay! Ok!

Trump: We‘re out.

Biden:we're back in!

Regardless, I think China goes from runaway emmisions to maintaining current levels, only because per capita, they still produce less than the Americans by half.

So the Paris accord would still get us to where we need to be to keep global emmisions down and limit the global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees.

But not with nonsense like let everyone else cut their emmisions and forget about Canada because we can make LNG.

Also, time that could be spent getting towards the Paris target will be spent bickering on making a new framework during which time no progress is being made.

So again, back to politics at hand, there is one way to show that parties have a credible climate plan,reach the Paris accord. And every party is now on board with a carbon tax. Some more aggressive than others, but 338 mps have been elected to a party that supports a price on carbon. Every party agrees with reaching the Paris goal as a bare minimum.

So people here can shit on the carbon tax, shit on Paris accord, but it seems like the political parties have moved past both of these points.

Unless you're a PPC voter like me.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Unless you're a PPC voter like me.

You keep pointing this out, how come?

 

[Altair]

You keep pointing this out, how come?

I feel like people think I'm a LPC voter and need to defend everything Trudeau does

 

[KevinB]

I feel like people think I'm a LPC voter and need to defend everything Trudeau does

I think because most of us truly believe you are a LPC voter - if not one of JT's PR folks - which you kind of are even if unpaid