Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Edward Campbell]

In the wake of the recent sea spate where a Taiwanese fisherman was allegedly shot by the Philippine Coast Guard and the resulting tensions between China, Taiwan and the Philippines:

A PLA General then makes a bold statement...

Here is a link to an excellent New York Times Magazine multi-media presentation on the Spratleys from a Philippines perspective.

The Philippines would dearly love some tangible US support but it appears that President Obama's Asian Pivot is designed to avoid offending China.

 

[tomahawk6]

The population demands of current urban dwellers has strained the infrastructure.The lack of water and pollution will make life in China's urban centers a less than pleasant experience and could foster a future revolution against the Party.Which is why they have tried to keep the bulk of the population on the farm.

 

[George Wallace]

The population demands of current urban dwellers has strained the infrastructure.The lack of water and pollution will make life in China's urban centers a less than pleasant experience and could foster a future revolution against the Party.Which is why they have tried to keep the bulk of the population on the farm.

Just witness their "season of smog" that is affecting some of their major metropolitan areas.  Smog ten times, or more, than found anywhere else on the planet crippling whole cities and forcing whole populations to stay indoors.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here is a link to an excellent New York Times Magazine multi-media presentation on the Spratleys from a Philippines perspective.

The Philippines would dearly love some tangible US support but it appears that President Obama's Asian Pivot is designed to avoid offending China.

And here is a link to another interactive briefing, this one from the Council  on Foreign Relations.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The population demands of current urban dwellers has strained the infrastructure.The lack of water and pollution will make life in China's urban centers a less than pleasant experience and could foster a future revolution against the Party.Which is why they have tried to keep the bulk of the population on the farm.

It is also why China is spending a fortune on green projects and pollution abatement.

It, the pollution, is the price that China paid for rapid, unconstrained industrialization.

But, a problem is that China, like America, is rich in coal and coal fired electricity is, still, crucial. The Chinese people may be upset about pollution but they would be even more upset if their TV screens went dark or the lights went out.

 

[tomahawk6]

The people in the rural areas are missing out on China's economic boom.The idea of bringing more people into the cities is really stupid.

 

[observor 69]

Here is a link to an excellent New York Times Magazine multi-media presentation on the Spratleys from a Philippines perspective.

The Philippines would dearly love some tangible US support but it appears that President Obama's Asian Pivot is designed to avoid offending China.

Yes so excellent that I had a link at: « Reply #2236 on: October 25, 2013, 13:46:25 » 

 

[Edward Campbell]

:cdnsalute:  Yes, you did, and I forgot it was there.  :-[ 

 

[CougarKing]

Here is a link to an excellent New York Times Magazine multi-media presentation on the Spratleys from a Philippines perspective.

The Philippines would dearly love some tangible US support but it appears that President Obama's Asian Pivot is designed to avoid offending China.

*The grounded ship mentioned in the article is the former Philippine Navy ship BRP Sierra Madre, an ex-US Navy World War II LST. The Philippines has stationed a contingent of Marines on the ship's hulk to deter the Chinese from taking the area known as Ayungin Shoal or 2nd Thomas Shoal, which is claimed by both countries. Apparently a lot of local fishermen from the nearby inhabited Pagasa Island/Kalayaan Island group tend to visit the hulk regularly, as one can see from the pics...

Pictures from the New York Times and another forum:

 

 

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Philippines' tactic is, I think, very effective. It's a classic, old 1950s tripwire. Of course a corporal's guard of marines on a rusting hulk cannot actually "do" anything to or about the Chinese, but they take away one big Chinese option. Clever ...


Edit: format

 

[observor 69]

I found this part of the article interesting, use of the "cabbage" strategy. Thoughts comments?

"“Since [the standoff], we have begun to take measures to seal and control the areas around the Huangyan Island,” Maj. Gen. Zhang Zhaozhong, of China’s People’s Liberation Army, said in a television interview in May, using the Chinese term for Scarborough. (That there are three different names for the same set of uninhabitable rocks tells you much of what you need to know about the region.) He described a “cabbage strategy,” which entails surrounding a contested area with so many boats — fishermen, fishing administration ships, marine surveillance ships, navy warships — that “the island is thus wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage.”

 

[Edward Campbell]

I found this part of the article interesting, use of the "cabbage" strategy. Thoughts comments?

"“Since [the standoff], we have begun to take measures to seal and control the areas around the Huangyan Island,” Maj. Gen. Zhang Zhaozhong, of China’s People’s Liberation Army, said in a television interview in May, using the Chinese term for Scarborough. (That there are three different names for the same set of uninhabitable rocks tells you much of what you need to know about the region.) He described a “cabbage strategy,” which entails surrounding a contested area with so many boats — fishermen, fishing administration ships, marine surveillance ships, navy warships — that “the island is thus wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage.”

It's a way ... and the Chinese need to find a way that does not involve the use of force. Force must be available, and no one should doubt they, the Chinese, can use force, but any actual use of force would be a strategic failure on China's part.

 

[CougarKing]

Xinjiang/Uighur separatists in the news again?

While many things reported in China's media is subject to question, one should wonder whether the police there are just trying to find a scapegoat for an incident which they may or may not have been able to prevent...

Asia News

» 10/29/2013 10:31
CHINA

Police: Uyghur suspects behind Tiananmen accident

by Wang Zhicheng
Search is on for two men from Xinjiang and four cars with the license plates from the region. It could have been a suicide terrorist attack . Uyghur intellectual calls for more caution. AsiaNews sources: Not only the Uyghurs , but entire Chinese population is tired and dissatisfied with the leadership. Strong censorship on information.

Beijing ( AsiaNews ) - Beijing police suspect that yesterday's incident - where a car drove into some tourists in Tiananmen Square , and then exploded , killing all passengers - was carried out by Uyghurs suicide terrorists. The incident occurred almost under the large portrait of Mao Zedong that dominates the front of the Imperial Palace , a few dozen meters from Zhongnanhai, home to many leaders.

The incident took place yesterday at noon and in addition to the three people in the car (an SUV ) , killed a further two people, a Chinese man and a Filipino national, leaving 38 injured. Police and firefighters have cordoned off the area from public view.

Today, the English edition of the Global Times, part of the People's Daily , said that the police have linked the incident with the Xinjiang and some Uyghur suspects . But the Chinese edition does not mention anything about Xinjiang .

Yesterday, all day censors removed any news or comments about the incident from the web, allowing only the official version of Xinhua.

Last night and today the police launched a manhunt to gather information on two Uyghur men and four cars with the Xinjiang license plate. Ilham Tohti , a Uyghur intellectual , writing on the website Uighurbiz.net , pleaded for caution because it is easy to blame the Uyghurs and increase control over the ethnic minority.

The western region of Xinjiang has been shaken by Islamic Uyghur nationalist movements for decades. For the most part they seek greater autonomy from the cultural and commercial dictatorship of the central government that has colonized the region with millions of Han immigrants and hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

The settlement also involves religion: Islam is strongly controlled in Uyghur schools, mosques, and society.

In the past there have been incidents and clashes between Uyghurs and Han in Xinjiang, as well as attacks that the government in Beijing has branded as "terrorist" , though often conducted with makeshift equipment ( petrol bombs , knives , plastic , etc. ... ) .

The Chinese edition of the Global Times today warns against "politicizing " the incident in Tiananmen too. Tiananmen Square, site of the infamous massacre on June 4, 1989 , is subject to a heavy security cordon to prevent even the slightest protest .

In China, large-scale corruption d throughout the Party has led to over 180 thousand "mass incidents" a year, in which different groups - farmers, workers , retirees, ex-military , ... - Clashed with police , often violently.

A source for AsiaNews in Beijing said: "The party is seeking to water down this incident, but it reveals the profound dissatisfaction and fatigue of the whole population , not only of the Uyghurs".

 

[Edward Campbell]

I know I'm repeating myself, but ...

China does have a violent separatist movement in Xinjiang province (officially the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region). There are analogs to the Canadian FLQ movement which turned violent in the 1960s. But, unlike the FLQ: the Uyghurs are well funded, from Saudi Arabia and some Gulf principalities, I think, and they are incited by an established, also well funded, Islamist radical movement. While I think prosperity will help to defuse some of the Uyghur anger it is unlikely to do much to eradicate the separatist movement. The Uyghurs are a Turkic, Central Asian people, not just another Sinic minority; their separatist impulses are ethnic, linguistic and religious.

I will also repeat something a Chinese official told me: they (the government in Beijing) are encouraging more and more young Chinese, especially young men, to move to Xinjiang with promises of good, state funded, jobs; once there those young men are encouraged to marry Uyghur girls ~ who appear to be happy to leave Islam and become Chinese secular ~ and settle there. "We'll f___k them into submission," said my acquaintance.

 

[a_majoor]

Reporting on a rather strange article published in Hong Kong. The thread started with NextBigFuture, which also mentioned a second article in a different periodical predicting 50 years of wars as the Chinese State sought to expand, but there is even less reasoning behind this, and since it is not an "official" news organ, I doubt it reflects the thinking of the leadership. Translation here:

The trends publicised in the first article are real, and do pose a threat to the financial stability and order of the "Red Dynasty", but unless they are tapping into some information not known to the rest of us, the problems could lead to instability and disorder, but collapse would need these "bubbles" popping along with a more general crash in the outside world as the US or EUZone's debts pull them down (and at which point the nature of China's government will not be a pressing issue for us here at home).

http://intellihub.com/2013/08/07/major-publication-in-china-predicts-that-the-communist-regime-will-collapse-by-2016/

Major Publication in China Predicts That The Communist Regime Will Collapse by 2016

Despite the praise of China’s development in the global media there are many indications that the current regime is on its way out

By JG Vibes
Intellihub.com
August 7, 2013

According to the Hong Kong magazine Frontline, a Chinese political news source, the Chinese Communist Party will collapse entirely by 2016.  According to the report, this collapse will be triggered by the reverse in cash flow that is currently taking place in the country, with large sums of money actually now moving out of China.

If this truly is the case it could be entirely possible that China is just the next stop on the central banking looting spree.  Regardless of the background politics at play, there are many indications that China will be going down with the US Dollar, the Euro and the rest of the world economy.

Of all the challenges facing China the most dangerous three are the real estate bubble, shadow banking, and local government debts, because of how pervasive and large-scale they are, says Dr. Frank Tian Xie, a business professor at the University of South Carolina Aiken.

It is important to remember that a collapse isn’t always a bad thing, sometimes this is just what the people need in order to topple an authoritarian regime.  This situation gives the general population an upper hand that they wouldn’t usually have. Also many times the population needs to see a regime fail, in order to cut through the propaganda so they can understand that they are are being oppressed.  The report also mentions that corruption will play a vital role in this collapse, which again ties in with the idea that maybe the people will be better off without the current power structure.

Although it has been unreported in the media China has been experiencing large strings of protests, riots and revolts.  China may have a reputation for being the home of some extremely obedient people, but many westerners would be surprised to believe that there is far more defiance and resistance in a place like China than there is in the United States.

Earlier this year thousands of people revolted in China smashing police cars and overturning police vans, after a checkpoint caused an accident and the ambulance took over an hour to arrive.

From all accounts it seems that the local police had some sort of racket going on, and were stopping citizens to make sure all of their papers were up to code.

It has even been suggested that these police were forcing fake registrations on the people to collect extra loot on top of their already astronomical pay from the state.

When a car tried to run away from one of these checkpoints to protect themselves from the police, they were chased until a crash occurred.

After the crash onlookers gathered and many called for an ambulance, but for over an hour there was no response.

What has obviously happened here is that the onlookers saw that one of their neighbors was being attacked by the state, and they rushed to that neighbors defense.

In areas as repressive as China the tempers of the people are always just below the boiling point, waiting for something like this to happen at any moment.

Last year in China one family actually refused to leave their house when they were told to move so a road could be built through their property.  In response the government surrounded their house with a highway and threatened to tear it down until they eventually gave in.  Now many residents living in areas that face similar problems are beginning to fight back against this land theft, and share their stories with the world.

There have been many other circumstances where villagers have fought back against having their land seized through imminent domain.

According to the Epoch Times:

A mass protest by villagers in the south-central province of Hunan is the latest of several similar incidents drawing attention to land acquisitions for development projects being exploited by communist officials.

More than a thousand Hui Muslims from Pingfeng Village, Shaoyang City, protested in front of the municipal government building on Feb. 25, demanding that authorities hold the relevant officials accountable for a recent land acquisition during which villagers were attacked with batons.

One of the villagers, Mrs. Ma, told The Epoch Times that the protesters held up banners and photos taken of the villagers being beaten. “We waited for over an hour and no officials came out to meet us, so we went into the office building and were met by at least a hundred police. Then finally an official came out to meet us.”

The protestors stated that the land was forcibly taken, and more than a dozen people were injured. Supported by the villagers, the families of the victims demanded that the municipal government investigate the local law enforcement department and punish the perpetrators. However, they were told to wait for the outcome of the government’s investigation.

According to Mrs. Ma, the beatings occurred on the morning of Jan. 10, when over a hundred Shuangqing District government staff members, policemen, and urban management officers arrived in police vehicles, and commenced a hostile land acquisition. “They came to the village and beat whoever spoke up with police batons, injuring 14 people; seven were even hospitalized,” she said.

In addition to the political and economic concerns that come along with communism, there are also issues with the massive amounts of pollution,censorship and many other issues surrounding the ever present police state.  All these factors and more could play a role in the demise of the current Chinese regime, and this is actually a possibility that is more realistic than most people think.

Sources:

^http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/232752-china-and-party-will-collapse-by-2016-says-hong-kong-media/

^http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57551700/thousands-of-chinese-protest-smash-police-cars/

^http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chinese-villagers-fight-land-grab-by-officials-working-with-developers-354183.html

Thread starter in NextBigFuture: http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/10/weird-speculation-about-chinas-future.html.

The fact this is published in NBF is also strange, since the blog is very pro China and quite Sinophillic.

 

[CougarKing]

Deep-pocketed Chinese energy firms have started to flex their muscles. They are snapping up foreign oil and gas companies at an increasing clip.

Of the 10 biggest foreign mergers or acquisitions by Chinese companies this year, seven have been in the energy sector, according to data from Dealogic.

<snipped>

Analysts say the emphasis on the energy sector can be attributed to China's shift away from coal and a domestic shortfall in energy production. Companies need to look beyond China's borders for resources.

The move abroad has not always been smooth. The state-owned CNOOC, for example, was forced to abandon an $18 billion bid for California-based Unocal in 2005 amid heavy political pressure in the United States. Since then, Chinese firms have largely shied away from wholesale purchases of U.S. companies.

Yet Chinese firms have also benefited from large-scale changes in the oil industry. In recent years, American companies have focused more on the shale gas boom in North America, opening the door for Chinese firms in countries like Iraq, Mozambique and Egypt.

source: cnn.com

 

[a_majoor]

A way to bypass the Great Firewall of China?

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029415.500-get-round-internet-censors-using-a-friends-connection.html

Get round internet censors using a friend's connection
30 October 2013 by Hal Hodson
Magazine issue 2941.

People living under repressive regimes will soon be able to access the web using the internet connection of friends in censorship-free countries

FOR people living under repressive regimes censorship is an everyday reality, and browsing the internet freely is impossible without some serious technical know-how. This week Google threw its weight behind an idea that lets people circumvent censorship by using the internet connection of a friend in a non-censored country.

A collaboration between the University of Washington in Seattle and non-profit firm Brave New Software, uProxy lets users share their internet connection with friends on social networks through a browser extension.

When both parties have the uProxy extension installed, one can forge an encrypted link through the other person's browser and out onto the internet via their social network connection. As well as giving people access to censored content, it could allow people in the UK to watch the US version of Netflix via a US friend's connection, for example, or those in the US to log in to the BBC iPlayer to catch the latest episode of Sherlock.

So far it has only been tested in a closed trial for selected users, but its developers promise to open up the code to curious security researchers. This will also ease fears that any back door may have been left open for authorities such as the US National Security Agency to access and spy on users' browsing habits. Censors can't stop uProxy simply by blocking social networking websites either because, instead of the standard web, it accesses the contact lists via background, hard-to-block online processes.

UProxy was funded by Google's charitable arm, Google Ideas, and the firm is also helping in its development. And it isn't the only anti-censorship tool that uses our friends to get online. Lantern – another Brave New Software project – also relies on your social network to find a trusted computer to connect to the wider internet. Unlike uProxy, it can use friends of friends, widening the pool of potential proxies. Like anonymising software Tor, it is funded by the US Department of State.

Adam Fisk, CEO of Brave New Software, says there are advantages to using a person's social network in this way. For one, censors will have trouble finding and blocking the IP addresses of all your peers. With Lantern and uProxy, the more people that use the service, the harder it is to censor, as more and more trusted proxies become available.

"We're capitalising on the emergence of social networks," says Raymond Chang, a graduate student at the University of Washington who is working on uProxy.

Many anonymising tools still require a high degree of computer literacy to use, although there are some apps that allow people to make encrypted calls and send emails. Google makes its money through easy-to-use web applications, so it's reasonable to expect that uProxy will exhibit some of the same characteristics.

Lantern may also be easy to use, as the plan is to build Gmail encryption right into the system, with all the complicated key exchanges hidden from the user.

Dan Staples of the Open Technology Institute in Washington DC says letting users place trust in people they know for access to the internet is unique. "No matter what, I have to place my trust in someone when I use digital technology," says Staples. "I think the uProxy and Lantern projects are taking a positive approach."

 

[tomahawk6]

NYT article/video of the Filipino toe hold in the Spratleys.

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/

 

[CougarKing]

NYT article/video of the Filipino toe hold in the Spratleys.

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/

T6,

If you look at the previous page, you'll see that's the third time that NYT article has been posted at this thread.

I reposted some pics from the article at this post below:

http://forums.navy.ca/forums/threads/2941/post-1265949.html#msg1265949

 

[tomahawk6]

Thanks for the gentle scolding  :camo: