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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

This update from the Washington Times below is more related to the PLA-N's SSBN capability, which has expanded since its Jin class submarines entered service.

It should be emphasized though that since China first got a nuclear weapons capability in the 1960s, their government has always preferred a "no-first strike/no first-use" policy. That doesn't seem to have changed with the more recent generations of leaders.

Washington Times

Chinese state-run media revealed for the first time this week that Beijing’s nuclear submarines can attack American cities as a means to counterbalance U.S. nuclear deterrence in the Pacific.

On Monday, leading media outlets including China Central TV, the People’s Daily, the Global Times, the PLA Daily, the China Youth Daily and the Guangmin Daily ran identical, top-headlined reports about the “awesomeness” of the People's Liberation Army navy’s strategic submarine force.

“This is the first time in 42 years since the establishment of our navy’s strategic submarine force that we reveal on such a large scale the secrets of our first-generation underwater nuclear force,” the Global Times said in a lengthy article titled “China for the First Time Possesses Effective Underwater Nuclear Deterrence against the United States.”

The article features 30 photos and graphics detailing, among other things, damage projections for Seattle and Los Angeles after being hit by Chinese nuclear warheads and the deadly radiation that would spread all the way to Chicago.

10312013_china-nuke-strike8201_s640x430.jpg
 
Made a rather surprising discovery today: picked up a copy of the "Epoch Times" at the CANEX in Kingston today (there were cute cuddly Panda bears above the fold. Who doesn't love cuddly Panda bears?  :D)

It is claimed the Epoch Times is owned or controlled by the Falun Gong, and the blurb under the masthead claims it eas established to "fill the need for truthful, uncensored reporting on China". This would suggest that this is certainly aimed against the Chinese government (and articles like "Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party" and a ticker announcing that 149,124,634 people had quit the Chinese Communist Party as of 7:00PM 10/30/13 would seem to reinforce that idea).

Of course everyone has the right to speak and even publish a newspaper (or broadcast on radio and TV, which they also do: New Tang Dynasty TV and the radio station Sound of Hope), I had not been expecting to see anything like that here. Downtown Kingston, maybe... :nod:
 
More unrest, but in a different, unexpected part of China. Take note that Taiyuan is actually known for mining, so anyone planting bombs in this instance might have had access to explosives in the mining industry.

BBC link

Blasts at China regional Communist Party office injure one

Explosions have been reported outside a provincial office of the ruling Communist Party in northern China.


The blasts in Taiyuan in Shanxi province were caused by a series of small devices, the official news agency Xinhua said.

It said one person had been injured and two cars damaged.

Photos posted on social media showed smoke and several fire engines at the scene. Police appeared to have sealed off the scene.

Shanxi police said that Wednesday's incident took place at around 07:40 local time (23:40 GMT).

"Several small explosive devices went off at Taiyuan's Yingze Street near the provincial party office," police said in a post on their verified microblog.

(...)
 
Wonder how much of the technology of Taiwan's recently acquired AH64E helicopters and other US weapons systems will also be shared later on with the mainland if other Taiwanese officers decide that reunification under Beijing's terms is inevitable...

Taiwanese Major Sells Military Secrets to China
By Lu Chen, Epoch Times | October 28, 2013


Quote
The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense released news on Oct. 26 saying that a military major sold secrets about American aircraft to mainland China. The major is now under investigation, along with over a dozen others suspected of involvement, Taiwanese authorities said.

According to initial investigations, the suspected officer is surnamed Hao, and is based at an electronic warfare brigade in the Air Force stationed in Pingtung County, in the south of Taiwan, Taiwan media NextTV reported. Major Hao is suspected of selling secret information about the E-2K, a modernized early warning aircraft sold by the United States.


Epoch Times
 
A coming "Cool War" with China? More about what this Harvard law professor (a Middle-east specialist-turned-China specialist) says about Canada's role is further down the article.

National Post

Professor warns of ‘cool’ war with China

After years studying Islamic thought and the Middle East — and helping to form the then-nascent Iraqi government — Harvard law professor Noah Feldman realized he had made a mistake — he had spent too little time examining the real power rising, China. Despite their deep economic interdependence, China and the U.S. are going to be increasingly at odds, he suggests. In advance of his appearance at the National Post-sponsored Teatro Speakers’ Series Thursday, he discusses his new book, Cool War, the Future of Global Competition with the Post’s Jen Gerson. This is an edited version of their conversation.

Q. Why did you switch to China?
A. The West spent close to a decade focused almost exclusively on the Middle East, when the far more important subject is the rise of China and how that changes the world. In the course of researching this question, I realized I had made that mistake, just like my country had, and I ought to learn as much as I could about the U.S.-China relationship and try to form my own views.

Q. Are we spending too much time focusing on the Middle East and its issues?
A. Yes. Although the issues there are difficult and important, the Middle East is a tinderbox and what the West can do [in terms of intervention] is quite limited. If we didn’t know that a decade ago, we should certainly realize that now.

By contrast, China’s rising economy and military are going to have transformative effects on global politics and the global economy, [and] deserve our serious and sustained attention.

(...)

Q. What does this mean for Canada?

A. Canada is in an interesting position. This is not like a Cold War where you have to choose sides and never deviate. In a Cool War structure, you can be militarily and strategically tied to one side — the U.S. — but economically dependent on the other side — China.

Q. Seen through a Cool War prism, Canada is in a unique position to play both sides.

A. Yes, it really is. You can use some of that leverage against the U.S.
 
S.M.A. said:
A coming "Cool War" with China? More about what this Harvard law professor (a Middle-east specialist-turned-China specialist) says about Canada's role is further down the article.

National Post


It's a good article and, broadly and generally, I agree with Noah Feldman, especially with the four points you have highlighted: too much focus on the Middle East/too little on China (on East Asia in general) and Canada can play both ends against the middle.
 
Somehow I suspected his supporters were setting Bo Xilai up for a comeback, much like Deng Xiaoping had a comeback from a purge as well before rising to lead China during the 1980s...

Agence-France Presse

New party formed in rare challenge to Communist Party of China
By: Agence France-Presse
November 10, 2013 7:24 PM

BEIJING - Supporters of jailed Chinese politician Bo Xilai have established a new political party, a founder said Sunday, in a rare challenge to the ruling Communist Party.

Scholar Wang Zheng said the party was set up on Wednesday, just days before a key Communist Party meeting, to support the former high-ranking official who was handed a life sentence for corruption in September.

Wang said the Zhi Xian Party, which means "supreme constitution," has named Bo as its life-long chairman, though it was unclear if he had actually agreed to have ties with the group.

Attempts by the party to contact Bo through one of his lawyers failed.

Chinese authorities view organizations set up without express authorization as illegal and have cracked down on similar groups in the past.

But Wang, an associate professor at the Beijing Institute of Economics and Management said: "I don't worry about being arrested.


"At first, my school tried to stop me from doing this, but I ignored them."

Bo, the former Communist Party chief of the city of Chongqing and a member of the elite politburo, lost an appeal to overturn his convictions for bribery, embezzlement, and abuse of power last month.

His downfall followed his wife's murder of a British businessman, details of which were allegedly leaked when Chongqing's police chief fled to the safety of a US diplomatic mission in China.

Bo won admirers among China's so-called "New Left" for revival of "red" culture, sending officials to work in the countryside and pushing workers to sing revolutionary songs, hearkening back to the country's rule under leader Mao Zedong.


Wang said Bo's trial was not carried out according to the law.

She declined to give the number of members and their affiliations, but said the new party hoped to hold a "national meeting" in half a year.

Several supposed members of the party, according to a list circulating on the Internet, claimed not to belong or could not be reached.

"The tenet of our party is to protect the authority of the constitution," Wang said.

China's constitution guarantees freedom of speech and assembly but legal scholars say the document is considered subordinate to the Communist Party.

In April, authorities detained several members of a loose grouping of activists calling for reforms to China's legal system, who took the name "new citizens movement," according to US-based rights group Human Rights Watch.
 
Farmers move from mountains to townhomes in China urbanization drive, but where are the jobs?
Published November 10, 2013 Associated Press
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/11/10/farmers-move-from-mountains-to-townhomes-in-china-urbanization-drive-but-where/

QIYAN COMMUNITY, China –  After her husband started making good money as an electrician here in central China, Cao Qin ended years of working as a migrant laborer hundreds of kilometers (miles) away and came back home to better care for their school-age boy.

But Cao, 30, didn't return to the family's rugged adobe home in the hills. Instead, they all moved into a new third-floor apartment in this planned community of Qiyan that has been going up in a valley in southern Shaanxi province over the past couple of years as a new home for villagers scattered throughout nearby mountains.

Shops, markets, health clinics, the boy's school and government offices are all within walking distance or a short motorcycle ride — a stark contrast from before for Cao.

"It always felt far away. I think it took me two hours on foot to come to the nearest town," said Cao, one of the newest residents among the neat rows of white-and-gray townhomes and apartment blocks of Qiyan Community. "We are very satisfied."

Originally started as a disaster resettlement in 2010, the newly minted community has since been swept into China's massive push to move millions of country folk into more urban settings to improve access to services and to shift from a factory-based economy to a consumer-driven, service-oriented one.

But there is one big problem: For most families there is no work here, meaning that most of the region's working-age people, as before, travel elsewhere for jobs. Some families are still holding out in the mountains because they can't afford the new apartments and don't have enough flexibility in how to use — let alone sell — the land they would leave behind.

China has no private land ownership, and rural lands are owned by village collectives. Mountain villager Huang Tianbing is locked into a farm collective deal arranged by local officials that involves subleasing his land for a tea tree business and caring after the trees. He said he only makes about $350 a year from the arrangement.

"We can hardly make a living and have no means to move out," Huang said, sitting near the door to his adobe home up on a hill, a vegetable garden behind him.

Scholars argue that successful urbanization requires a reform of China's rural collectives and land laws to give farmers like Huang more opportunities for success.

China's Communist Party leaders huddled in a high-level plenum in Beijing are expected to discuss these kinds of reform during consultations through Tuesday, with more comprehensive plans to be rolled out by year's end.

Beijing sees urbanization as China's next biggest engine for economic growth, with plans to turn 300 million rural folks into urban dwellers by 2030 — equivalent to relocating nearly the entire population of the United States.

"Imagine their demands as they become urbanized. That's unprecedented in human history," said Hu Angang, a professor at the School of Public Policy & Management at Tsinghua University. "We are turning urbanization from the biggest potential for consumption into the biggest drive for consumption."

China's urbanization first picked up pace with market reforms in the early 1980s. By 2011, half the country's population had moved into cities, but a rigid, decades-old household registration system that assigns either urban or rural status under the old planned economy created a new class of second-class people: rural laborers working in cities.

A recent study by Tsinghua University shows that only 27.6 percent of the country's people have urban status with full claims to public urban services, while hundreds of millions of city dwellers with the rural status have limited education, health and pension benefits.

China's second wave of relocation must be more equitable to avoid the kind of social instability that the country's leaders loathe, and Premier Li Keqiang has vowed a "new type" of urbanization, with plans to close the gap between rural and urban residents.

"The key this time is to integrate the countryside with cities and to equalize basic public services," said Hu of Tsinghua University.
more on link
 
S.M.A. said:
Somehow I suspected his supporters were setting Bo Xilai up for a comeback, much like Deng Xiaoping had a comeback from a purge as well before rising to lead China during the 1980s...

Agence-France Presse


I'm not sure the Deng analog can be stretched very far.

Even in exile, Deng had a major power base within the CPC, he was far stronger than the "gang of four" because he had the unwavering loyalty of both the PLA (he was, after all, a real "hero" of the long march and his rise to power was, mainly, based on his military achievements) and the Zhou Enlai faction. I doubt Bo has, or ever had, that sort of support and I suspect that Prof Wang and her friends are more dreamers and possessors of anything like power.
 
I would have thought that they would have done this decades ago, considering they've been operating the XIA class SSBN for decades now.

Defense News


US Report: 1st Sub-launched Nuke Missile Among China's Recent Strides

TAIPEI — For the first time in the country’s history, China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent nears initial operational capability (IOC), according to a forthcoming report by a US congressional commission on China.

China’s JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile could reach IOC later this year, according to an early draft of the report by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

With a range of 4,000 nautical miles, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will have its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent against the US mainland, mated with the Type 094 Jin-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). China has deployed three Jin-class SSBN and “probably will field two additional units by 2020.”

The report also states that China is pursuing two new classes of nuclear submarines — the Type 095 guided-missile attack submarine (SSGN) and the Type 096 SSBN. The Type 096 will likely “improve the range, mobility, stealth, and lethality” of the PLAN’s nuclear deterrent.

US military facilities on Guam are coming into conventional missile range for China, according to the report.

Though China does not have the ability to strike land targets with sea-based cruise missiles, the report states China’s navy is developing a land-attack cruise missile capability, most likely with the Type-095 SSGN and Luyang-III (Type 052D) guided-missile destroyer. This will enhance China’s “flexibility for attacking land targets throughout the Western Pacific, including US facilities in Guam.”

In June, according to the report, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force accepted 15 new H-6K bomber aircraft. An improved variant of the H-6, the K variant has extended range and can carry China’s new long-range, land-attack cruise missile (LACM). “The bomber/LACM weapon system provides the PLA Air Force with the ability to conduct conventional strikes against regional targets throughout the Western Pacific,” including Guam.

The report states China is working on extending the range of the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile. With its current range of 810 nautical miles, it can already threaten US naval vessels throughout the Western Pacific. At 1,600 nautical miles from China, Guam falls outside the DF-21D’s range.

(...)
 
100,000 USD in relief aid is a pretty modest amount for China when compared to other nations such as the Vatican, who actually donated 150,000. Even China's own state media said that China would only stand to gain more by offering more aid, but the modest amount is probably sending a message to Manila, that Beijing won't just set the Spratlys dispute aside.

CNBC

China yet to deploy 'substantial' navy to aid Philippines

As international relief efforts get underway in the Philippines following the devastation caused by typhoon Haiyan, superpower China's contribution has been disproportionately low.

Beijing yesterday offered $100,000 in cash, a figure that seems modest compared with its other recent contributions for humanitarian relief abroad, the New York Times reported.

Asked if the donation was scaled according to the current chill in relations between China and the Philippines, Qin Gang, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to answer, the New York Times said.


(Read more: Storm surge in Philippines: 'It was like a tsunami')

Ties between China and the Philippines have been rocky, strained by disputes over the resource-rich South China Sea, most of which Beijing claims as its maritime territory.

PHILIPPE LOPEZ | AFP | Getty Images

A general view from the damaged control tower of the airport shows a C-130 aircraft (L) taking part in evacuation operations in Tacloban.Although the world's second-largest economy has beefed up its 'blue-water' navy enabling it to deliver humanitarian assistance to disaster-hit areas in Asia, China hasn't signaled that it will commit this formidable sea-borne platform to support aid operations after typhoon Haiyan killed an estimated 10,000 people when it swept through central Philippines on Friday.


The People's Liberation Army (PLA) - the world's largest military – does have a lot of assets to offer, according to Rory Medcalf, Director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute in Australia, not least of all a fully-equipped navy hospital ship called the 'Peace Ark' launched in 2007.

The ship has 300 hospital beds, eight operating rooms and 107 medical workers, including doctors and nurses.



"The PLA now has substantial maritime assets that can be turned towards disaster relief," Medcalf said in blog post on Monday entitled 'Typhoon Haiyan and the geopolitics of disaster relief'.



How Philippine firms are helping relief efforts
Roel Refran, COO of the Philippine Stock Exchange describes how private firms are pledging help to communities damaged from Typhoon Haiyan.The vessel is "now used as a major platform for Chinese diplomacy, in ways the U.S. Navy would recognize from its own long tradition," said Medcalf, a former senior strategic analyst in Australia's Office of National Assessments intelligence agency.


'Outside support'

The hospital ship visited at least six Asian countries including Brunei, Maldives, Pakistan and Myanmar earlier this year during humanitarian assistance and disaster relief joint exercises before returning to eastern China on October 12.

Manila has appealed for international assistance to back up its own military who are stretched thin and whose bases were hit.

"We need outside support," Lt. Col. Ramon Zagala told CNBC on Monday. "Our troops were also affected. We have to integrate international efforts within our own efforts."

If Beijing does ultimately decide to deploy Chinese military expertise and hardware to help the Philippines, it may signal a pragmatic step forward in its regional policy and could be seen as an attempt to diffuse tensions.


Philippines crisis grows by the day

In the Philippines, rescue workers continue to look for survivors of Super Typhoon Haiyan. NBC's Harry Smith reports."What Beijing does next will be an important sign of how sensible, capable and magnanimous a power Xi Jinping's China is going to be when it comes to regional diplomacy," explained Medcalf, who has studied the geopolitical ramifications of disaster relief and how the projection of so-called 'soft-power' has changed.

What form any Chinese support may take, the conditionality attached to any aid and whether Manila consents are just a few of the complex questions that diplomats must tackle before help can be shipped out, he said.

China does have the potential to be a highly important "future donor and actor in the humanitarian aid field," Mathias Eick, the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid (ECHO) Regional Information Officer for East and Southeast Asia, Pacific Region told CNBC. 

The English-language edition of the Global Times, a paper run by state-run People's Daily, called for China to set aside lingering political differences with the Philippines and assist the disaster-stricken neighboring country like a "responsible power".


"China shouldn't be absent in the international relief efforts," the newspaper said in a front page op-ed published on its website on Tuesday entitled 'Islands spat shouldn't block typhoon aid'.

"Aid to the typhoon victims…is totally different from foreign aid in the past made out of geopolitical concerns," it continued. "Overseas Chinese in the Philippines played an active part to mobilize relief efforts when the mainland was in disaster. It's legitimate that we provide assistance when they suffer."

In the meantime, it is the search and rescue teams of the U.S. military who are the 'first responders', strengthening Washington's pivot towards Asia.

"At a time when American power and purpose in Asia are being questioned, it will also be noticed as a reminder that the forward-deployed American military is still the first and fastest responder to contingencies of any kind," said the Lowy Institute's Medcalf.

The aircraft carrier USS George Washington, currently in Hong Kong, is scheduled to sail to the Philippines with a support group of six additional ships to boost the relief effort on orders from Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.


The group is expected to reach the Philippines "in 2 to 3 days depending on sea states and speed," CDR Steven Curry, a Hawaii-based spokesman for the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet told CNBC.

— By CNBC's Sri Jegarajah. Follow him on Twitter: @cnbcSri


And in an ironic turn of events regarding the disputed Spratlys and the grounded Philippine ship, used as a tripwire against Chinese encroachment, mentioned earlier in this thread...

Interaksyon (Philippine News site)

'Yolanda' kicks out Chinese from Ayungin Reef, Philippine Marines on grounded ship safe


MANILA - Super typhoon Yolanda has sent home Chinese maritime and Navy vessels at the Ayungin Reef in Palawan, while the half a dozen Philippine Marines on board a rusting and grounded World War II-era ship are safe, a source told InterAksyon.com.

This effectively ends the standoff between the two countries some 100 nautical miles from the island of Palawan.

Ayungin is part of the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) in the West Philippine Sea (WPS). China claims the reef is part of its territory, more than a thousand nautical miles from its nearest 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

“They’re safe,” said a senior officer of the Philippine Marines guarding the reef on board the shipwreck BRP Sierra Madre (Landing Ship Tank 57). The Philippine Marine official requested that he not be named because he is not authorized to give any statement regarding operational activities in the West Philippine Sea.

“Hindi naman sila naanod (They were not washed away),” the source added.

The source said the Chinese Navy ship, maritime ships, and fishing vessels left Ayungin two or three days before Yolanda struck the country.
“As of now, we’ve no report that the Chinese ships have returned to Ayungin. Dahil siguro may paparating na naman na isa pang bagyo (Maybe because another storm is approaching the country),” he said.

In June this year, Chinese vessels entered Ayungin and had maintained a presence in the area, as what they did in Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal located in Masinloc, Zambales in April 2012.

The territorial dispute between the two countries is being heard by an international arbitration court in Hamburg.
 
"Ship" is a bit of a stretch for that rusted wreck on the Ayungin Reef. I am surprised the marines on it survived.
 
Chinese aircraft carrier fails to make a splash with Canadian military officials

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Chinese+aircraft+carrier+fails+make+splash+with+Canadian+military/9161349/story.html

I would agree with the assessment that while their carrier is a game changer in the grand scheme, in the short term it has no strategic impact on the pacific.
 
China's move to insulate its oil sources from the US Navy. This expands the point made (i believe by Robert Kaplan) that China and the US are like a Dragon and a Whale: both are totally at home in their natural elements, but neither can get at the other:

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/chinas-changing-oil-calculus-9385?page=show

China's Changing Oil Calculus

Rosemary A. Kelanic | November 12, 2013

Last month, China and Russia announced an $85 billion equity deal to jointly develop Russia’s east Siberian oil resources for export to China in an unprecedented agreement between the two countries.

This comes on the heels of Chinese president Xi Jinping’s tour of Central Asia to forge closer trade ties with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. Promoting a “New Silk Road” of regional commerce, he spoke illustriously of “camel bells echoing in the mountains” and “wisps of smoke rising in the desert” as in the days of yore.

Although much less romantic, “Hydrocarbon Highway” more aptly describes Xi’s vision. In recent weeks, China has signed nearly $100 billion in energy contracts to increase Chinese access to the abundant petroleum resources of Central Asia. A major advantage of obtaining oil from Siberia and Central Asia is that it could travel to China overland—and thus beyond the reach of U.S. naval power.

Xi’s efforts are not limited to terra firma. He has also pressed for closer military and economic ties with Indonesia and Malaysia, the two countries which sit astride the Strait of Malacca, a crucial maritime “choke point.” Roughly 80 percent of China’s oil imports pass through this waterway, which is just two miles wide at its narrowest passage. By comparison, the oft-threatened Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has periodically promised to close to deny Persian Gulf oil to the global market, is twenty miles wide at its narrowest point.

An American naval blockade, most likely stemming from a conflict over Taiwan, is a nightmare scenario the Chinese regime clearly wishes to avoid. A new report I wrote for the Council on Foreign Relations casts this danger in a new light.

Most observers believe China’s investment reflects the importance of petroleum access for sustaining the nation’s extraordinary economic growth—which according to the World Bank, has averaged 10 percent annual GDP growth over the past twenty-five years. Soaring economic expansion has been accompanied by a doubling of Chinese oil consumption from five to ten million barrels per day over the past decade alone. Access to oil may also play a special role in buttressing the regime. Western experts commonly argue that the primary reason the regime has maintained power despite waning ideological relevance is the palliative effect of prosperity.

No doubt oil plays an important role in the Chinese economy, and by extension, the stability of its political regime. Yet this explanation overlooks a factor that is at least as important as prosperity: the crucial nature of oil for fighting modern wars.

In the past, military fuel shortages had disastrous effects on the battlefield, undermining both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan’s military efforts in World War II. Today’s conventional wisdom holds that such shortages are no longer a danger, based on the assumption that military oil consumption comprises only a tiny portion of a country’s overall petroleum demand. Nothing could be further from the truth.

I find that Chinese military fuel demand in a conventional conflict would be staggering—large enough, in fact, to strain its overall supplies. According to my estimates, in an air war against Taiwan alone, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) would guzzle nearly half of China’s indigenous jet fuel production. If a U.S. blockade cutting off oil imports coincided with a war against Taiwan, leaving China to fuel the war from domestic sources alone, China would eventually have to slash civilian aviation consumption by 75 percent to maintain a full military effort.

Such a scenario is not far-fetched. Historically, the majority of blockades have been imposed during ongoing wars. And of the rare peacetime blockades, several were immediate precursors to conflict. Furthermore, it is hard to imagine the United States blockading China for any other reason than to retaliate for an attack on Taiwan. Although a U.S.-China confrontation is unlikely, the possibility of its occurrence nevertheless influences the behavior of political and military leaders, who must prepare for worst-case scenarios.

If Chinese leaders are preparing for the contingency of a U.S. blockade, they are likely also preparing for an overlapping, simultaneous contingency of war with Taiwan. Thus President Xi’s efforts to build a Hydrocarbon Highway in Asia may be motivated as much or more by military readiness imperatives, not just prosperity concerns.

Rosemary A. Kelanic is associate director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies and a research instructor in international affairs at the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University.
 
After the deliveries of the Orions and Apaches, Taiwan wants more US-made weapons. Will the next US administration give Taipei diesel subs and AEGIS ships when they know this will bring Beijing's condemnation?

Defense News

Taiwan Still Hungry for More US Arms
Nov. 13, 2013 - 03:41PM  |  By WENDELL MINNICK

TAIPEI — After nearly a decade of waiting, wrangling with budgets, writing proposals and whistling past the graveyard, new aircraft deliveries have begun arriving in Taiwan.

Over the past 60 days, deliveries of 12 P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft and 30 AH-64E Apache Longbow attack helicopters have begun arriving in Taiwan. Sixty UH-60M Black Hawk utility helicopters are expected to begin arriving in 2014.

Despite struggles to pay for new equipment with dwindling defense budgets and improved relations with China, planners in Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) are sketching out proposals for new arms procurements from the US.

Sources in both Taiwan and the US indicate the top priority is acquiring diesel-powered attack submarines. In 2001, the US offered Taiwan eight submarines, but made no explanation on how it would fulfill the order. The US does not build diesel submarines, and many countries refuse to provide them to Taiwan due to political pressure from China.

Taiwan still has two Dutch-built diesel subs acquired during the 1980s and, at least on paper, still operates two World War II-era Guppy submarines for training.

Defense Minister Yen Ming and President Ma Ying-jeou have made clear in recent weeks the importance of the submarine acquisition.


“Senior level ROC [Republic of China] authorities have been adamant about their priorities, first and foremost being additional diesel-electric submarines,” said Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute and a former Taiwan desk officer in the Pentagon’s Office of the Secretary of Defense.

“Submarines offer not only a credible, survivable deterrent, but also are critical for anti-submarine warfare training,” he said. “Senior US officials committed to assisting Taiwan in its acquisition of diesel-electric submarines more than a decade ago should move forward with a cooperative design feasibility study.”

Another Navy priority for Taiwan is the replacement of eight Vietnam War-era Knox-class frigates. Two Knox-class frigates are scheduled to be replaced next year with two refurbished Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates from the US Navy. Taiwan has the option of procuring a total of four retired Perry-class frigates from the US.

Taiwan’s Navy also is considering replacing some of the Knox-class frigates with a new Sea Swift catamaran corvette to be built by the China Shipbuilding Corp.

An MND source indicated the Navy would like to build indigenous minehunters loosely based on US-built Osprey-class vessels. Taiwan faces threats of blockade by China’s navy and the potential mining of port facilities during a conflict.

York Chen, a former member of Taiwan’s National Security Council, said Taiwan’s Navy still wants an “Aegis-equipped frigate,” though the Pentagon has ignored past requests.

Taiwan originally requested four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with the Aegis combat system, but finally settled for four Kidd-class destroyers.

The Taiwan Marine Corps has stated publicly it wishes to procure additional AAV-7A1 amphibious assault vehicles. In 2006, Taiwan procured 54 of those vehicles to replace aging LVTP-5A1 vehicles acquired in the 1970s. The MND source indicated the marines want an additional 48 AAV-7s to completely replace the remaining LVTP-5s.

Although the US has denied Taiwan’s request for 66 F-16C/D fighter jets, the decision has not affected Taiwan Air Force plans to acquire the F-35 stealth fighter. Some Taiwan officials believe the next White House administration will be Republican and more willing to support Taiwan’s defense needs.

The Taiwan Air Force also plans to replace its AT-3 “Tzu Chung” trainer jets with the South Korean-built T-50 Golden Eagle. Taiwan had planned to build a replacement, dubbed the AT-5, but the program was canceled due to funding and development problems.

What Taiwan’s Air Force needs is “precision strike weapons,” such as the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) and UAVs, said Arthur Ding, a cross-strait military affairs expert at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University. Given China’s tight air defense network, it would be “completely impossible to fly deep into China” for Taiwan’s fighters, Ding said.

In 2011, Taiwan secured the US release of an upgrade package for its older F-16A/B fighters that included the GBU-31, GBU-38 and GBU-54 laser-guided JDAMs. Though they were released, due to budgetary reasons, the Air Force has delayed the purchase of JDAMs until 2014 or later.
 
S.M.A. said:
After the deliveries of the Orions and Apaches, Taiwan wants more US-made weapons. Will the next US administration give Taipei diesel subs and AEGIS ships when they know this will bring Beijing's condemnation?

Defense News


While China will, ritually, condemn America for arming Taiwan, I continue to maintain that China does not intend to fight for Taiwan; it plans, and confidently expects, to regain sovereignty over Taiwan by peaceful means - American weapons and all.

Now, that does not mean that China will not fight.

There are very specific circumstances that will trigger a sudden and overwhelming Chinese attack - and China will not fear American intervention. Taiwan knows exactly what those circumstances are and it is very, very unlikely to ever break the current "rules of the game" with China. Both China and Taiwan want reunification (although it is true that the ethnic Formosan minority is not keen on it), they do not, yet, agree on the rules of that game.
 
With all the negative press about their stinginess on giving typhoon relief, was their initial meager donation due to their resentment over the Spratlys dispute a major miscalculation by China's leaders?

From the Christian Science Monitor:

Slammed for being stingy, China boosts aid to Philippines


China's initial offer of $100,000 struck many as politically motivated by tensions in the South China Sea between the two countries.


Even Ikea's donation has been bigger.


As reported by Yahoo News:
In Philippine relief efforts, China beat by Ikea

Amid territorial spat with Manila, China's paltry offer of typhoon aid threatens global image
By Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press
7 hours ago


BEIJING (AP) -- The outpouring of international aid to the Philippines makes China's contribution for typhoon relief look like a trickle: Several countries and even Swedish furniture chain Ikea have done more than the world's second-largest economy. That won't help Beijing's campaign to win over neighbors with its soft power.

China has pledged less than $2 million in cash and materials, compared to $20 million provided by the United States, which also launched a massive military-driven rescue operation that includes an aircraft carrier.

Another Chinese rival, Japan, has pledged $10 million and offered to send troops, ships and planes. Australia is giving $28 million, and Ikea has offered $2.7 million through its charitable foundation.

China's reluctance to give more - driven by a bitter feud with Manila over overlapping claims in the South China Sea - dents its global image at a time when it is vying with Washington for regional influence.

"China has missed an excellent opportunity to show itself as a responsible power and to generate goodwill," said Zheng Yongnian, a China politics expert at the National University of Singapore. "They still lack strategic thinking."

Yet, China lags far behind the U.S. in the sphere of soft power - the winning of hearts and minds through culture, education, and other non-traditional forms of diplomacy, of which emergency assistance is a major component.

Despite Chinese academics' frequent promotion of soft power, Chinese leaders don't really get it, said Zheng. Instead, they continue to rely on the levers of old-fashioned major-nation diplomacy based on economic and military might. "They still think they can get their way through coercion," Zheng said.

That contrasts starkly with the Chinese territory of Hong Kong, which is helping despite strong public outrage over Manila's handling of a 2010 hostage crisis that killed Hong Kong residents. From Hong Kong, aid teams were dispatched and private charities pledged millions in donations.

Ultimately, the damage to China will be "remarkably small," but only because countries have little real love for Beijing and were expecting little from it, said University of Nottingham China expert Steve Tsang.

"It's an expression of China's petty-mindedness," Tsang said. "China already demands respect so other countries fear but don't love it."
 
China to relax one-child policy

BEIJING - China is to loosen its controversial one-child policy, abolish some of its labor camps and seek closer policy ties to the United States, state media reported Friday.

The policy shift is one of several key decisions approved by the Communist Party of China (CPC) at its historic and secretive Third Plenary Session earlier this week.

The CPC said the change in family planning policy was intended to promote "long-term balanced development of the population in China," according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.

More at...

NBC News
 
This is also "old news." The policy - for families where both parents are only children - has been in effect in some regions, in Beijing anyway, for a while. It was in effect early enough to allow parents to try for a "dragon baby" in the year of the dragon, 2012-01-23 to 2013-02-09.

 
S.M.A. said:
With all the negative press about their stinginess on giving typhoon relief, was their initial meager donation due to their resentment over the Spratlys dispute a major miscalculation by China's leaders?

From the Christian Science Monitor:


Even Ikea's donation has been bigger.


As reported by Yahoo News:


I think the adverse reaction to China's stinginess is, largely, from overseas Chinese and foreigners, in general.

As far as I can tell it is playing well in China amongst "ordinary" Chinese. The government line seems to be that the Philippines is spending scarce money on defending little rocks in the ocean that China claims for its own, so, if they can afford that then can afford to rescue their own people.

I'm not suggesting it's "right," but it seems to be a popular (or, at least, not unpopular) policy.
 
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