Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Edward Campbell]

This is becoming more complex and more 'deeply seated:' media outlets that, normally, focus on pop music and food are publishing highly critical opinion pieces and in high schools in the suburbs (Tung Chug, near the airport to be specific) the students have left their classes to hold day long "teach ins" (who else remembers the 1960s?  :nod: ) in support of the kids - they're mostly kids - downtown at Occupy.

There are, of course, comparisons of kids with umbrellas and kids facing down tanks ...

... it's too early to make that comparison, but the memory is strong and Beijing knows it.

CY Leung is bearing the brunt of the criticism, still, but I think that's a little unfair. Li Fei, deputy secretary general of China's National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee in Beijing is the man responsible for this current mess. It is a pig headed insistence on "one country-one system" amongst the Li faction in Beijing, the hardliners, that has caused all this. Now, in fairmness, most people want "one country-one system" but they really want China's system to evolve to look, first, more like HK's and then more like Taiwan's and then, eventually, like Singapore's: democratic, albeit very conservatively (Confucian) democratic, honest, responsive and efficient; that's the Lee factions' aim. The Li faction, the hardliners, on the other hand, are often doctrinaire Maoists who (honestly) believe that they, the old, powerful men in the political centre, in and around the Zhongnanhai, must know best.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Just an aside ...

This is, I'm fairly certain, the crowds around the HK Cenotaph, in Central:

... can you imagine young Americans or Brits or Canadians obeying the "(Please) Keep Off the Grass" signs?  :not-again:

 

[Edward Campbell]

I apologize to have  :highjack:  but I actually think that, in terms of global security, what happens in, around and to China is a damned site more important that whatever happens in, around or to Ukraine and/or to Iraq and Syria, combined. As this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from The Economist, suggests, this is a threat to China's political system:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2014/09/hong-kong-protests?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/toughtestchinaleader

Hong Kong protests
A tough test for China's leaders

Sep 29th 2014, 12:17 by G.E. | HONG KONG

IT IS a most unusual sight on Chinese soil, and most unsettling for leaders in Beijing. On September 28th and 29th tens of thousands of demonstrators surrounded government offices and filled major thoroughfares around Hong Kong, braving rounds of tear gas from riot police to call for democracy and demand the resignation of Leung Chun-ying, the territory's Beijing-backed chief executive. One image broadcast and shared around the world, of a lone protester holding his umbrella aloft in a cloud of tear gas (pictured above), has given the non-violent protests a poetic echo of “tank man” from the crackdown at Tiananmen Square in 1989.

It also captures precisely what Communist Party leaders in Beijing fear from Hong Kong and its special status under the “one country, two systems” arrangement it has enjoyed since the territory’s handover from Britain in 1997. Not only are its people willing (and allowed by law) to challenge their government openly, but they also could become an inspiration for protests elsewhere in China. The spread of news and images of the protests has been blocked or heavily censored on the mainland, but as the protests carry on, so does the risk of contagion. In that sense it marks one of the most difficult tests of Chinese rule since Tiananmen.

Compounding the difficulty is the lack of a middle ground. The protesters’ main demand is that the people of Hong Kong be allowed to vote for any candidate of their choosing in elections for the post of chief executive in 2017 (the first in which citizens would have such a vote). President Xi Jinping has made clear he will have nothing resembling full Western democracy within China’s borders. The current election plan, put forward by the central government on August 31st, gives the central government an effective veto over nominees to ensure that Hong Kong remains firmly under its control.

Several protest movements have converged to challenge that control. Until recently the best-known movement had been Occupy Central with Love and Peace, which is modelled on Occupy Wall Street and named after an important business district at the heart of Hong Kong. But even Occupy’s leaders worried whether they could muster meaningful numbers.

The biggest driver of these protests have been university students and secondary school students, thousands of whom boycotted classes last week. On the evening of September 26th the leader of the secondary school students, 17-year-old Joshua Wong of Scholarism , was arrested; a move that, along with the use of pepper spray by police, was credited with swelling the popularity of the protests over the weekend (Mr Wong was released on Sunday). In the early hours of September 28th Benny Tai, one of the leaders of Occupy Central, announced that their protest, which had been scheduled for October 1st, China’s national day holiday, would begin immediately.

Mr Leung has shown no sign of bending. On the afternoon of September 28th, at a press conference held inside the government headquarters while thousands of protesters surrounded the building, Mr Leung repeated his endorsement of the election plan. It calls for chief executive candidates to be screened by a committee stacked with Communist Party supporters (he was elected by a similar committee in 2012, collecting 689 votes along with the derisive nickname “689”). Mr Leung acknowledged that the plan may not have been the “ideal” that some wanted, but he called it progress nonetheless. He said it had given Hong Kong citizens the “universal suffrage” they had been promised. Mr Leung said he welcomed “rational” dialogue but that the government would be “resolute” in dealing with the “unlawful” demonstrations. Asked whether the Chinese army would ever be used, Mr Leung expressed his confidence in the police. The tear gas canisters began flying shortly afterward, surprising protesters who exclaimed variations of “are you kidding?” and “shame on you”. Many donned goggles and unfurled umbrellas to protect themselves against the gas, while some raised their hands and yelled, “don’t shoot”. The protests did not become violent, but they grew and spread to other areas. The calls for Mr Leung's resignation became louder.

Hong Kong and central government authorities appear for now to be hoping that the protests will dissipate without an escalation of force. Riot police were pulled back on the afternoon of Septemer 29th. Censors on the mainland have worked hard to block the spread of news and images  from Hong Kong. At some point during the protests Chinese authorities seem to have blocked access to Instagram , a photo-sharing site. (Facebook and Twitter have been blocked for years by China’s so-called Great Firewall.)

The expectation of the Communist Party's supporters in Hong Kong, including the tycoons who have long run the territory, is that pragmatism will win the day over idealism. Many bankers and business executives feel there is no chance that China’s leaders will ever compromise; they view the protests as an irritant. The response from America and Britain has been almost negligible thus far (a statement from the American consulate  in Hong Kong said America did not “take sides” or support "any particular individuals or groups involved”. Many of the territory’s 7m citizens are sympathetic to the demonstrations. But in most neighbourhoods people are going about their business as usual. Even near the areas of protest the city continues to function. This is partly a testament to the restraint and sense of civic responsibility of the demonstrators (who have even picked up after their own trash and, in some cases, sorted for recycling).

Without a political resolution in sight, questions remain about how much staying power the protests will have, and how much patience the government will show. The possibility looms of a more severe use of force. A two-day Hong Kong holiday this week, on October 1st and 2nd to observe national day, may bring some answers either way. Organisers expect more people to join the protests. Worryingly for the government, that could include tourists travelling from the mainland, where the holiday is also observed. The risk of Hong Kong's unrest spilling over into mainland China may continue to rise.

I believe that China, not HK, can and must change. What's more, I think that Xi Jinping believes that, too, and I think he wants to put those changes in motion.

What kind of change?

As I said above, China needs to start looking more and more like HK - honest and efficient, and then something like Taiwan - democratic, until, finally, it looks a lot like Singapore: a functioning conservative (Confucian) democracy ... which will allow it to become the greatest, richest and most powerful empire the world has ever seen: bigger and richer than either the 19th century British or 20th century American empires. If China cannot change it cannot grow. Change, towards an honest, efficient government that respects the rule of law and the consent of the governed, is not optional, it is absolutely necessary if Xi Jinpiung wants to preserve China's search for a system based on the rule of a meritocracy. Back cicrca 1990 Anson Chan quipped that the big news wasn't that China had taken over HK, it was that HK would now have to take over China. She was addressing, specifically, the chronic, horrid levels of corruption and maladministration in China ... and she was, still is, right. China must become more and more and more like HK. HK has nothing, at all, to learn from Beijing.

But: there are political factions and differing policy views in Beijing. Xi Jinping is not a dictator, à la Hitler or Stalin, or even an 'absolute monarch' like a Canadian prime minister can be. There is an opposition in Beijing, even inside the Zhongnanhai, and it is powerful and dangerous and committed to its own view of China's future.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here is a link to a CNN report with some videos.

 

[Kirkhill]

I apologize to have  :highjack:  but I actually think that, in terms of global security, what happens in, around and to China is a damned site more important that whatever happens in, around or to Ukraine and/or to Iraq and Syria, combined...

Speaking personally, you are doing a service here.  I don't think apologies are necessary.  Thanks for the news and the insights.

Cheers.

 

[tomahawk6]

However enlightened the Chinese communists have become,these protests are a threat to the power structure.Its only a matter of time before the gloves come off.

 

[Edward Campbell]

However enlightened the Chinese communists have become,these protests are a threat to the power structure.Its only a matter of time before the gloves come off.

You're quite right, T6 ... but the issue is: where will the gloves come off? In the streets of HK? Or, more quietly, in the corridors of power, inside the red walls of the Zhongnanhai palace?

If they come off on the streets of HK then the process of reunification (the great matter of Taiwan) will be set back by a generation. If they come off in Beijing then I have no ideas about the outcomes.

 

[CougarKing]

You're right, it will look bad and there may be economic repercussions

...and sure enough...

Reuters

TSX drops on Hong Kong protests; Encana rises on deal

By John Tilak

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index dropped on Monday, with every major sector lower, as anxiety over democracy protests in Hong Kong rekindled the bearish sentiment that swept the market last week.

One bright spot amid a sea of red was Encana Corp (ECA.TO: Quote), whose shares jumped 3 percent after the company said it agreed to buy Fort Worth, Texas-based Athlon Energy (ATHL.N: Quote) for $5.93 billion in cash.

Hong Kong protesters defiantly stood their ground on Monday in the face of tear gas and police baton charges, while the Communist government in Beijing said it would not tolerate dissent and warned against any foreign interference.

The resource-heavy Canadian index's decline followed a big drop last week when the market was hit hard by a rally in the U.S. dollar and weakness in commodity prices.

(...SNIPPED)

Plus more food for thought on the economic side...

Yahoo Finance/Business Insider

Why the next global crisis may stem from China
CNBC
By Katy Barnato – 5 hours ago

A "poisonous combination" of low economic growth and high debt could catapult the world into its next crisis, led by China and the "fragile eight" countries, warned a report by senior economists on Monday.

This year's Geneva Report, whose authors include ex-Federal Reserve economist Vincent Reinhart, said global debt levels were still rising, particularly in developing countries.

"Contrary to widely held beliefs, the world has not yet begun to deliver and the global debt-to-GDP is still growing, breaking new highs. At the same time, in a poisonous combination, world growth and inflation are also lower than previously expected," Reinhart and colleagues wrote in the 16th annual Geneva Report.
The authors said the ratio of global debt to GDP was "increasing at an unabated pace and breaking new highs". They calculated that world debt levels stood at 212 percent of the global economy, excluding the financial sector, in 2013-up 38 percent points since 2008.

(...SNIPPED)

China's debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 217 percent, according to the Geneva Report. This ratio was higher than most of its emerging market peers, but below developed economies like the U.K. and U.S. and Japan.

Debt levels are also rising in the "fragile eight" countries of India and Indonesia in Asia, Brazil, Argentina and Chile in South America, plus Turkey and South Africa. These are all major emerging markets that suffered credit bubbles and escalating current account deficits following quantitative easing by the Fed.

(...EDITED)

And London is concerned about its former colony:

BBC

Hong Kong protests: UK 'concerned' about situation

The British government has said it is "concerned" about the situation in Hong Kong after clashes between police and pro-democracy activists.

Tens of thousands of protesters remained on the streets of Hong Kong on Monday, defying attempts by the Hong Kong authorities to make them leave.

A Foreign Office statement called for the rights of those demonstrating to be protected.

But China says other countries should not interfere in Hong Kong's affairs.

Hong Kong was a British colony until 1997, when it was handed back to China under an agreement which allowed the territory a degree of autonomy and guaranteed certain basic freedoms, including the right to peaceful protest.

Hong Kong was allowed to keep its economic and social systems and move towards democratic elections under the "one country, two systems" formula.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Financial Times, is that newspapers assessment of the situation:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/40ba38de-485b-11e4-b5ad-00144feab7de.html#slide0

Hong Kong expects democracy protests to last for ‘long period’

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Hong Kong

September 30, 2014

Source: Bloomberg

CY Leung, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said the democracy protests sweeping the territory would last “quite a long period” as protesters prepare for the October 1 National Day holiday which is expected to bring massive crowds on to the streets.

Thousands of protesters camped outside government headquarters in Admiralty on Monday night, calling for the resignation of Mr Leung who is considered pro-Beijing. Students carried cardboard cutouts, complete with horns, of the embattled chief.

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese media have been ordered not to cover the protests, which have created the biggest crisis for the Communist party since Tiananmen. On Tuesday Global Times, a Communist party tabloid, said protesters were “jeopardising the global image of Hong Kong” and accused foreign media of making a “groundless comparison” with Tiananmen to “mislead and stir up Hong Kong society”.

By late afternoon on Tuesday large numbers of people had started gathering along the main road leading to the government buildings. The crowds stretched all the way to the Mandarin Oriental hotel, one of the city’s landmarks near the financial district.

Protesters had earlier started stockpiling supplies, ahead of the National Day holiday. Hong Kong has also cancelled the firework display held annually on October 1 to celebrate the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

On Monday, huge numbers of people poured into the area to join protesters calling on Beijing to reverse course on a controversial electoral reform plan. China last month agreed to introduce universal suffrage for the chief executive election, including restrictions that make it impossible for critics of Beijing to run. On Tuesday, Mr Leung stressed that Beijing “will not rescind its decision”.

After the scene turned into a party-like atmosphere on Monday, some protesters put up notices on Tuesday reminding people that “civil disobedience is not a carnival”. One placard said: “Not hungry, don’t eat; not thirsty, don’t drink”.

Underscoring the anger towards the Hong Kong government, protesters hung up an Ikea stuffed wolf – which sounds like Leung in Cantonese – named Lo Mo Sai, which sounds similar to a strong curse in Cantonese.

Protest organisers estimated that 80,000 people gathered in Admiralty on Monday. The large numbers materialised after the government removed riot police who had fired tear gas and pepper spray at protesters during a tense stand-off on Sunday.

Many people said the decision to use tear gas on the peaceful protesters backfired by sparking more sympathy for the pro-democracy movement. Critics added that the decision to arrest several student leaders on Friday, including Joshua Wong, the 17-year-old leader of a group called Scholarism, also sparked a backlash.

Social media such as Twitter, Facebook and WeChat and communication apps such as FireChat have exploded with images of the huge demonstration in Hong Kong – the only place in China where people can protest without retribution.

People created hashtags for #OccupyHongKong and #UmbrellaRevolution, in a reference to the umbrellas that protesters used to protect themselves from tear gas.

Chinese censors have blocked Instagram to prevent images of the protesters on Hong Kong’s streets being seen in the mainland. They also blocked searches for terms such as “tear gas” and “Occupy Central” – one of the democracy groups leading the protests – on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like service.

“Hong Kong people have never let me down,” said Martin Lee, a 76-year-old democracy activist, adding that Sunday’s protest was the “most dramatic” of his life.
The protests in Hong Kong have spilled over into Taiwan where about 100 demonstrators on Monday called for the immediate end of economic and political talks with China to show solidarity with Hong Kong.

Since Britain handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997, the territory has been ruled under the “one country, two systems” formula agreed by Margaret Thatcher and Deng Xiaoping. China later agreed to introduce universal suffrage – one person, one vote – for the election of chief executive, the top political job in Hong Kong.

But when China launched the plan last month, critics called it a “sham democracy”. Potential candidates for chief executive would need support from a majority of the 1,200 members of a nomination committee that is stacked with Beijing loyalists.

Additional reporting by Julie Zhu in Hong Kong

And this, also from the FT, for reference:

Hong Kong’s path to universal suffrage

1984: Sino-British Joint Declaration formally begins the process of returning Hong Kong to China under the “one country, two systems” principle, in which the territory will retain its capitalist economy and partial democracy for 50 years after the handover

1985: Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law, is approved by Beijing. One of its stated aims is to introduce universal suffrage for the election of the legislative council and the chief executive following “nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee”

1997: Hong Kong returns to Chinese rule. Tung Chee-hwa, a former shipping tycoon, is appointed by Beijing to govern the territory

2004: Beijing rules out universal suffrage for chief executive elections in 2007 and legislative council elections in 2008, and decrees that its approval must be sought for any change to the territory’s electoral laws.

2005: Mr Tung resigns and is replaced by Donald Tsang

2007: Mr Tsang begins a new five-year term as chief executive after being elected by an 800-strong committee. Beijing reveals plans to allow Hong Kongers to elect their chief executive directly in 2017 and their legislators by 2020

2012: Leung Chun-ying elected chief executive by 1,200-strong committee

2013: Occupy Central with Love and Peace, a campaign group pledging nonviolent civil disobedience if Beijing does not introduce universal suffrage consistent with “international standards”, is founded by Benny Tai Yiu-ting, associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong

June 10 2014: Beijing white paper on Hong Kong reiterates support for moving towards universal suffrage but says there are limits to the “high degree of autonomy” that Hong Kong enjoys

June 29: Close of unofficial referendum run by democracy activists in which more than 800,000 people vote on proposals for electoral reform. Beijing brands the poll illegal

July 2: Police arrest more than 500 protesters at a pro-democracy march

August 15: Mr Leung signs petition opposing the demands of the pro-democracy movement

August 17: The Alliance for Peace and Democracy, a group founded to counter Occupy Central, marches through the city

August 31: Thousands of pro-democracy campaigners protest in Hong Kong after China reveals its framework for universal suffrage. No more than two or three candidates for chief executive will be able to stand, each of whom must receive majority backing from a 1,200-strong nominating committee, which is made up of mostly pro-Beijing elites

September 22: Students begin a week-long class boycott to protest against China’s framework for Hong Kong electoral reform

September 26: Student activists storm Civic Square, an area beside the Hong Kong government headquarters. Police attempts to remove them included a number of arrests, including 17-year-old protest leader Joshua Wong, who was released two days later

September 28: Occupy Central leader Benny Tai announces that the long-awaited civil disobedience campaign has formally been launched – three days before the original planned October 1 start date – as the group seeks to build on the student demonstrations. Later in the day, riot police deploy tear gas and pepper spray in an attempt to disperse thousands of people gathered in Hong Kong’s city centre

September 29: Hong Kong withdraws riot police from the streets, in a move that appeared to open the way for tens of thousands of people to stream into the area to join the protest movement

September 30: Protesters start to stockpile supplies in preparation for the National Day holiday on October 1 when even larger crowds are expected to take to the streets of Hong Kong on the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China

 

[dimsum]

Not related to the HK protests, but an interesting story in China trying to suppress the ethnic unrest in Xinjiang:

Senior Chinese officials have warned the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) there will be "wider implications" over tonight's Foreign Correspondent story about unrest in western China.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-30/abc-warned-of-wider-implications-from-china-story/5779218

 

[Edward Campbell]

However enlightened the Chinese communists have become,these protests are a threat to the power structure.Its only a matter of time before the gloves come off.

It's a bit dangerous, in my opinion, to use the word "enlightened" when referring to China.

When we say enlightenment or enlightened we tend to think about the 18th century Scottish and later, broader European "age of enlightenment".

The Chinese had an "age of enlightenment," too, but it happened 2,500, not 250 years ago.

The Chinese are enlightened, but not in quite the same way we are ...

Our enlightenment came about, in some large part, because of the horrors of the Thirty Years War and, especially, of the religious absolutism that provoked and accompanied it.

China's enlightenment began during the Spring and Autumn Period, an era (around 750-400 BCE) or revolutionary political (and social) change in China.

Our enlightenment led to modern liberalism. We, liberals, demand, for example, that our political leaders answer to us, on an individual, vote-by-vote basis. China's enlightenment gave us Confucianism, which leads to a very conservative political view. (And you need to be very, very careful with those two words. I equate (and use) liberal to someone who believes in individualism, to the "rights of the sovereign individual" being paramount. Confucianism is related to the notion of filial responsibility which stretches from father and son, to subject and governor, governor and emperor and, finally, to emperor and heaven.) Confucians have no difficulty with the idea that, today, Xi Jinping is the Paramount Leader answerable only to ... to heaven?

 

[tomahawk6]

I use the term enlighten with regard to communism.The PRC were the first to allow some capitalism with tight controls and it allowed the economy to grow while the USSR stagnated and collapsed.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Fair enough, T6, and I sort of guessed something like that, but Deng Xiaoping's shift to free markets should, also, be seen - as the Chinese see it -  as a return to an ancient (far, Far, FAR before Adam Smith) socio-economic structure.

What I'm trying to do is to remind us all that we, all of us, tend to see the world though the lens of our own experiences. Th Chinese, a billion or more of them, have different histories, different experiences and they see the same world, but through a vastly different lens.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I love this picture that @jackycwong posted on Twitter with the caption: "Only in Hong Kong - doing homework while protesting #OccupyCentral"

The protest has morphed a bit. CY Leung has, apparently, declined to use any more force and I'm guessing he will allow the protest to play itself out over the 1 Oct holiday long weekend. The police and protesters seem to have achieved a modus vivendi which allows the protest to continue while the City, proper, still works.

I think, based on what I am getting first hand, that many, many HK people, people who are, normally, very apolitical, are very much onside with the students on this. My suspicion is that Mr Leung knows that and has advised Beijing to let him handle it his way ... BUT if his way is to "wait them out" then I'm afraid it will not work.

This is a golden moment for Xi Jinping, equivalent, in many ways, to the situation in 1976/77, when Deng Xiaoping worked his back into power, post the deaths of Zhou Enlai (his friend, political champion and protector) and Mao (his bitter enemy). If Xi can do to the hardliners what the purge of the Gang of Four did for Deng, then he can make a bold move to revolutionize Chinese politics by allowing, indeed encouraging greater local democracy in HK, and promising reform to all Chinese provinces, just as Deng, for example, made Shenzhen into a "special economic zone" and set the return to a market economy in motion for all of China.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Just an aside ...

This is, I'm fairly certain, the crowds around the HK Cenotaph, in Central:

... can you imagine young Americans or Brits or Canadians obeying the "(Please) Keep Off the Grass" signs?  :not-again:

And, equally, in the "it would never happen here" category ~ here being New York or Toronto or Ottawa:

HK student protesters clean up the protest site.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Hey, it's HK, it's how things are done.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

More photo's of the protest here at Cryptome.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Further to my "It's HK, is how things are done," meme, the BBC notes the same thing in an article with several photos and videos.

 

[Edward Campbell]

China has manifold problems, some serious, some normal for any national economy, but of them all I would put one at the very top of the list: water.

Look at this graphic:

Source: http://greenleapforward.com/2010/01/06/charting-chinas-water-future/

Now, look at this article.

Not only does China have a supply problem, the water is does have is of poor quality.

Several billions of US dollars can and will improve the latter situation but supply will remain problematical.

There is new, fresh water is Est Asia without significant demand ... but it is all North of China.

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from The Economist is a highly critical story about the latest water diversion project:

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21620226-worlds-biggest-water-diversion-project-will-do-little-alleviate-water-scarcity-canal-too

Water consumption
A canal too far
The world’s biggest water-diversion project will do little to alleviate water scarcity

Sep 27th 2014 | XICHUAN, HENAN PROVINCE | From the print edition

THREE years ago the residents of Hualiba village in central China’s Henan province were moved 10km (six miles) from their homes into squat, yellow houses far from any source of work or their newly allocated fields. These days only the very young and very old live there. Close to their old farms, a giant concrete canal now cuts a swathe. From October 31st the channel will gush with water flowing from China’s lush south to the parched north.

The new waterway is part of the biggest water-diversion scheme in the world: the second arm of what is known as the South-North Water Diversion Project. This is designed to solve an age-old imbalance. The north of China has only a fifth of the country’s naturally available fresh water but two-thirds of the farmland. The problem has grown in recent decades because of rapid urban growth and heavy pollution of scarce water supplies.

The result is a chronic shortage. The World Bank defines water scarcity as less than 1,000 cubic metres (35,300 cubic feet) of fresh water per person per year. Eleven of China’s 31 provinces are dryer than this. Each Beijing resident has only 145 cubic metres a year of available fresh water. In 2009 the government said that nearly half the water in seven main rivers in China was unfit for human consumption. All this has encouraged ever greater use of groundwater. Much of this is now polluted too.

In 1952 Mao Zedong suggested the north could “borrow” water from the south. After his death China’s economic boom boosted demand for such a scheme and provided the cash to enable it. In 2002 the diversion project got under way. An initial phase was completed last year. This involved deepening and broadening the existing Grand Canal, which was built some 1,400 years ago, to take 14.8 billion cubic metres of water a year more than 1,100km northward from the Yangzi river basin towards the port city of Tianjin.

In late October the second, far more ambitious and costly route is due to open. This new watercourse, over a decade in the making, will push 13 billion cubic metres of water more than 1,200km from the Danjiangkou dam in the central province of Hubei to the capital, Beijing. The aim is to allow industry and agriculture to keep functioning; already in 2008 Beijing started pumping in emergency supplies from its neighbouring province, Hebei. The new canal will help avert an imminent crisis. But the gap between water supply and demand will remain large and keep growing.

The transfer will supply about a third of Beijing’s annual demand. A spur of the canal will provide an even greater proportion of Tianjin’s. But these shares will shrink over time. Even if people use less water, population growth, the expansion of cities and industrialisation will increase China’s overall demand. By lubricating further water-intensive growth the current project may even end up exacerbating water stress in the north.

Shifting billions of cubic metres across the country has caused huge disruption. The government says it has moved 330,000 people to make way for the central route. Laixiang Sun of the University of Maryland in America reckons the number uprooted is at least half a million. There will also be health and environmental costs. Diverting river-water northward could promote the spread of diseases common in the south, particularly schistosomiasis, a debilitating snail-borne disease. Reduced flow in the Yangzi may make coastal water supplies vulnerable to intrusion by seawater and increase the potential for drought.

The financial cost is also high. Mr Sun puts the cost of the project at more than $62 billion—far higher than the original $15 billion price tag. His estimate does not include the running of the project or the building of 13 new water-treatment plants to clean the water.

By increasing supply, the government is failing to confront the real source of the problem: high demand for water and inefficient use of it. Chinese industry uses ten times more water per unit of production than the average in industrialised countries, according to a report by the World Bank in 2009. A big reason for this is that water in China is far too cheap. In May 2014 Beijing introduced a new system that makes tap water more expensive the more people use. But prices are still far from market levels. Officials turn a blind eye to widespread extraction of un-tariffed groundwater by city dwellers and farmers, despite plummeting groundwater levels.

Raising the price would cut demand and encourage more efficient use. It should also help lure industry away from water-scarce areas where prices would be set at higher rates. Arid areas that are forced by the government to pipe water into desiccated cities like Beijing could offset their losses by charging higher tariffs.

Yet such solutions make officials nervous. They do not want to scare industries away from cities by charging them more for water. They also do not want to face angry protests by residents. Hence they prefer shifting water around in pipes and canals. Britt Crow-Miller of Portland State University describes the diversion project as “a physical demonstration of political power”. In Henan giant billboards make this clear: they call on locals to support the project “to bring the capital clean water and blue skies”. No reciprocal signs ask Beijingers to thank their southern comrades.

In the absence of any grand plan to cut demand, the government will need to keep the water flowing north. This makes it more likely that a third part of the diversion project might one day go ahead. This would deploy tricky engineering at great altitude to transfer water from the headwaters of the Yangzi to the upper reaches of the Yellow river across the Tibetan plateau. Such a massive project would still not solve the problem. But it might keep water flowing for a few years more—and in China politics is thicker than water.

Raising the price of water is, indeed, part of the solution, but, despite the amazing changes that have occurred in the past 35 years, China is not, yet, a wealthy country. Until China can afford to "pay as it goes" then projects like these, with their environmental risks and social disruptions, will be needed.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I'm fairly certain that this will resolve itself peacefully.  As you've said, the HK population is generally indifferent to "how" they're being governed, as long as the money flows. 

The next few hours will be very important as, from what I'm reading/seeing at least, the crowds are still massive and blocking traffic in/out of the financial district.  Forget the police/government; I don't think most HKers will stand by while the financial sector is crippled.

That, according to a Wall Street Journal report, is Beijing's tactic: "Leung Chun-ying, Hong Kong's chief executive, has adopted a new strategy to marshal the city's widespread pro-democracy protests: allow the demonstrations to continue until the protesters tire or lose support from the wider public, according to a person familiar with the matter ... The impetus to resolve the standoff peacefully has come from the Chinese government in Beijing, this person said."

 

[tomahawk6]

The protestors are calling for the Chief Executive to step down.