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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

And the anti-Xi exercise is having an impact in Iran.


We already know he has had an impact in Venezuela and Cuba and Latin America more broadly.
 
The Telegraph article references on of the risks Trump is facing is his approval rating


He is still above 40.

He was under 40 in 2018, 2021 and 2022 and was re-elected in 2024.

He is still polling higher than Joe Biden was.
 
Meanwhile - how secure is China's position.
Not very. Until about 2021, China's GDP as a share of US GDP was climbing, peaked around 78% of US GDP, and has since declined to about 64%. That doesn't mean China is failing; it does mean the US is running away from China (and every other country).
 
Israel also banned them from their bases as well, after buying them and issuing to officers.....

I wonder what the rules will be when they eventually come to the US (albeit manufactured in the US). Ford is already talking about a Joint Venture with BYD. And I'm guessing that will be one of the announcements coming out of the Putin - Xi summit. Is an American assembled vehicle with Chinese software American or Chinese for base access purposes?
 
The only real odd one out is Eswatini, which is maintaining it's ties to Taiwan.


Going to be fun when Trump announces that he doesn't care about Taiwan and won't fight for it, after the summit with Xi.

The PBOC just has to buy some Trump coin through proxy accounts which will mysteriously end up on his books, after he leaves office ...... Last time around they just had to grant his baby girl some copyrights.
 
Xi Jinping’s ‘Chinese Dream’ unravels
Protests over depressed wages and broken promises have erupted across the country in rare show of dissent

In early May, thousands of angry Chinese workers lined the streets of the southern city of Yulin.

Demonstrators blocked the roads, climbed onto rooftops and draped banners which read “Give me back my hard-earned money”.

They were protesting about unpaid wages, offering a rare glimpse into unrest in a country where all forms of protest are prohibited and those who speak out are swiftly, and often violently, punished.

The demonstration, which lasted at least four days and came barely two weeks before Donald Trump’s visit, is one of a growing number erupting across China as citizens grow exasperated with the country’s sluggish economy, strangled wages and corrupt practices.

The rest of it is behind a paywall

 
Bullying Taiwan isn't going to fix China's demographic crisis or replace all the wealth flushed down the toilet building empty cities or satisfy Chinese consumers or stabilize the millions of oppressed not-quite-Chinese minorities.
 
Bullying Taiwan isn't going to fix China's demographic crisis or replace all the wealth flushed down the toilet building empty cities or satisfy Chinese consumers or stabilize the millions of oppressed not-quite-Chinese minorities.
so in your mind, what will be the Chinese version of bread and circuses? Will they use a flat out war? Their current policy of building islands probably doesn't truly register with the general population so Xi will need something that creates drama and patriotism.
 
China will never have a better opportunity to move on Taiwan that now or the near future. Taiwan sees the Trump abandonment coming, and has every incentive to make an attack on the island as costly as possible. The proliferation of defensive firepower via SUAS continues to expand, but Taiwan is highly likely not yet as armed up as they'll need to be. The U.S., through Trump, is as vulnerable to Chinese bribery, chicanery, and leverage as they're ever likely to be before Taiwan becomes too tough to take.

If China is of a mind to forcibly invade and occupy Taiwan, probably the timing doesn't get better than within the next year or so.

Taiwan is a major thorn in their side, and a disproportionate military focus. A successful seizure of Taiwan would allow China to then refocus its military development and posture in whatever was suits them without the need to have so much built around the ability to fight and take Taiwan. I don't know in practical terms what that means, but probably with Taiwan seized, China would be happy to continue building a true blue water navy and basically be a bully throughout Southeast Asia in pursuit of larger economic and political objectives and regional hegemony- 'their hemisphere'. The rest of the world would only stay pissy at them for so long before the need to normalize trade and diplomatic relations in the face of a fait accomplit.
 

I note this, from the article:

"The comments from the president — who acknowledged that Xi raised U.S.-Taiwan arm deals in their discussion — could amount to a fairly dramatic shift. One of the commitments that the administration of President Ronald Reagan made to Taiwan in 1982 — known as the Six Assurances — was that the U.S. wouldn’t consult with Beijing on weapon sales to the island.


But Trump insisted he wasn’t marking any change to American foreign policy in his conversation with the Chinese president.

“He brought that up,” Trump said of Xi. “He talked about that to me, obviously. So what am I going to do, say ‘I don’t want to talk to you about it because I have an agreement that was signed in 1982?’”


Well, yes, that is exactly what you were supposed to say. That's what DIPLOMATS who KNOW all the likely things that may come up or Head of States that have ACTUALLY READ THE BRIEFS INSTEAD OF RELYING ON GUTS would have said, but in diplomatic terms.

(Hey! How do you like my posts written "Trump-style"?)
 
so in your mind, what will be the Chinese version of bread and circuses? Will they use a flat out war? Their current policy of building islands probably doesn't truly register with the general population so Xi will need something that creates drama and patriotism.
The possibility is that China may invade some of the islands close to the mainland, but avoid the main island. That bite by bite strategy will work with minimal causalities and minimal international pushback. Taiwan already knows those islands are indefensible and they and all the troops/civilians will be lost.
 
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