Collapse of the Assad Regime

[Underway]

Did Russia abandon the base, or did they simply sail their vessels as a precaution?

I suppose that they might come back.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, in the U.S., DoJ's been busy ...

Criminal Charges Unsealed in Chicago Against Two Former High-Ranking Syrian Government Intelligence Officials for War Crimes Against Americans and Other Civilians

“We remain steadfastly committed to bringing justice to the victims of these heinous war crimes," said Acting U.S. Attorney Morris Pasqual.

www.justice.gov

Indictment attached

 

[quadrapiper]

Tartus is ~86NM almost due East from Asia Napa in Cyprus, less than 25NM from Tripoli, and less than 60NM from the Turkish border to the North.
While it is a Mediterranean Port, it isn't really secure from anything, and with the situation on the ground in Syria being erratic, I doubt anyone would want to do much with it currently. IF one was interested into muscling a position into the ME it wouldn't be a bad spot to use, but that sort of thing is about two centuries late unless you are the Chinese...

Iran?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Iran?

They will have to request tranist through the Suez, but it is a possibility. Then possibly transferred to their East Pacific Fleet

 

[Kirkhill]

Russia has already abondoned the base in Tartus. I've seen the OS satellite images. Them losing that base and the airfield means that their African supply chain is heavily disrupted. So their Libyan faction is now under threat (because that's the next step in the supply chain) and all those irriating Russian mercs in Africa are going to be on their own for a while. France is laughing their ass off as is Italy I'm sure.

Russia may try to take this opportunity to create a port in Libya instead. We'll have to see where this goes.

I wonder what that means to the cross-Mediterranean smuggling of humans into the EU.

Britain has already called a halt to asylum seekers.

Asylum cases on hold amid fears of jihadists returning to Britain

Battle-hardened Islamic State fighters from the UK could be freed from prisons in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad

www.telegraph.co.uk

Asylum cases on hold amid fears of jihadists returning to Britain​

Battle-hardened Islamic State fighters from the UK could be freed from prisons in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad

The UK is at risk from British jihadists returning from Syria, security sources have told The Telegraph, as all asylum claims from the country were suspended following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

Around a dozen hardened Islamic State fighters from the UK are being held in prisons in northern Syria controlled by Kurdish forces. However, the overthrow of Assad has raised the prospect of camps and jails holding foreign fighters being shut down and the jihadists freed to head to Britain.

On Monday afternoon, the Home Office announced it was suspending decisions on Syrian asylum applications, after calls to do so from Conservative and Reform MPs.

Several countries in Europe had already taken that step, with Austria going further and preparing to deport Syrians already settled in the country.

There are currently more than 6,500 Syrians claiming asylum in the UK, most of whom have arrived by small boats across the Channel rather than through any resettlement scheme. Their applications will now be paused.

Germany announced on Monday it was freezing Syrian asylum applications, as did Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Greece. Austria went further, with its interior ministry instructed to start preparing to deport Syrians already living there.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

The War Zone has a collection of videos supposedly showing an underground bunker for his brother.** Which would make a great location for the next Bond villains lair. other videos show personal photos of the President and his family; possible drug making equipment and the former Presidents exotic car collection.

Descend Into The Depths Of The Assad Regime’s Massive Bunker

The labyrinth of an installation is remarkably modern and deeply buried, filled with creature comforts and regime oddities. The labyrinth of an installation is remarkably modern and deeply buried, filled with creature comforts and regime oddities.

www.twz.com

** I didn't know there was another brother. There was an older brother who was supposed to succeed Old Man Assad, but he went off and got himself killed, IIRC a car accident. Bashir who was a dentist by trade ended up taking over and was just as bloodied minded as the old Man. And, again if IIRC, Bashirs wife is actually British!

 

[KevinB]

Iran?

Not exactly a good spot for them. Would just be a colossal target

 

[RangerRay]

The West should be jumping on this moment to provide support to build up the Lebanese army and their allies within that country. With Iran losing a ground link to Hezbollah and it has been so heavily hit by Israel, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to give that country some autonomy and real self rule.

This apparently what the incoming president of the US had to say about the situation (sorry, no link).

“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

Doesn’t sound like he’s seeing the big picture, if this is accurate.

In other news, Terry Glavin is uncharacteristically optimistic about the situation.

The Syrian Revolution: Victorious At Last

It's a decade overdue. Nobody knows what comes next, but can we please, for at least this one glorious moment, let the Syrian people rejoice?

open.substack.com

 

[Cloud Cover]

My UN time was mostly in Lebanon, but I did a quick exchange on the Golan and our mission had a Golan aspect. The Civil War was raging (2014/15) so we tracked the situation very closely.

You don't need to be a military genius to see why Israel took the Golan Heights in the 1967 war. It dominates the Sea of Galilee region of Israel. While Israel eventually withdrew from the Sinai which they also seized in the 1967 war, I don't believe that they will ever leave the Golan Heights due to how much it dominates a densely inhabited region. Stopping the Syrian offensive in the 1973 war was a near-run-thing and it gave the IDF quite a scare. the 1974 cease-fire agreement established the zone of separation which included UNDOF forces and UNTSO observation posts on both sides (the A Line and B Line). The idea was to have a buffer zone where you would not have Israeli and Sryian soldiers facing each other.

In 1981, Israel officially annexed the portion of the Golan Heights that they seized in 1967. There are small Israeli settlements/kibbutz in the region. There are also pre-existing towns and villages where the inhabitants are considered permanent residents of Israel and able to apply for Israeli citizenship. Some are Druze and others are Alawite. The Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan is right up against the zone of separation on the Israeli side and was where the Hezbollah rocket killed the kids playing soccer in July.

There is a fascinating Alawite town called Ghajar which is in the Israeli-occupied portion of the Golan Heights. It then grew across the Lebanese border during the Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon. When the Israelis withdrew in 2000 they built their new Technical Fence around the northern part of the town that is in Lebanon. It is considered a "standing Blue Line violation" but the residents have no intention of moving out. They hold Israeli citizenship.

During the 2014 period the Syrian rebels took the Syrian side of the zone of separation (I think it was Jabat-Al-Nusra?). The UN elements moved to the Israeli side of the ZOS until the Syrian army retook the area.

All that to say, I would be stunned if new settlements were built in the quite narrow zone of separation. I imagine that the Israelis are waiting to see what type of government will arise in Syria and whether they need to iron-out a new "cease-fire" agreement or if the new regime will be content to follow the existing agreement. I imagine that the Syrian rebels that are taking control of the country have some other things on their mind right now!

Looks like IDF armour is now only 10KM from Damascus.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Looks like IDF armour is now only 10KM from Damascus.

 

[FJAG]

Doesn’t sound like he’s seeing the big picture, if this is accurate.

When does he ever?

 

[OldSolduer]

The War Zone has a collection of videos supposedly showing an underground bunker for his brother.** Which would make a great location for the next Bond villains lair. other videos show personal photos of the President and his family; possible drug making equipment and the former Presidents exotic car collection.

HEY what about Dr Evil????

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Looks like IDF armour is now only 10KM from Damascus.

I suspect people can't read a map, GE shows the Mountain/buffer zone 34km away from the SW edge of Damascus?

 

[Cloud Cover]

No they drove up through Lebanon and turned right. I wonder if they have an interest in that huge underground prison…

 

[dimsum]

HEY what about Dr Evil????

Well there are no volcanoes.

That we know of.

 

[Cloud Cover]

No they drove up through Lebanon and turned right. I wonder if they have an interest in that huge underground prison…

Edit: they are consolidating on the Bravo line. Apparently that means they have occupied the UN buffer zone.

 

[OldSolduer]

Well there are no volcanoes.

That we know of.

But he also had a submarine and an island

 

[GR66]

No they drove up through Lebanon and turned right. I wonder if they have an interest in that huge underground prison…

Aiming to seize or destroy WMD's and precursors/production equipment before the hardcore Islamist rebels get them?

 

[Maxman1]

Yes, that very well could be the case. The shared border between Shia Iraq and Jordan does mean a potential conduit into Jordan. I could see the Saudi's not wanting this to happen.

I suspect Jordan wouldn't want that to happen, either.

The Jordanians have zero fucks given about taking folks on one way rides out to the desert if they see them as being disruptive.

I doubt they're interested in taking chances after Black September.

 

[KevinB]

Well so much for no US involvement.

US believes Marine vet is alive after disappearing in Syria in 2012

President Joe Biden says the U.S. government believes Austin Tice is alive and Washington is committed to bringing him home after Bashar Assad’s ouster.

www.marinecorpstimes.com