Collapse of the Assad Regime

[Czech_pivo]

I don't think they want Iran in Syria, as for the Russians, I suspect they will allow a complete withdrawal or allow them to hold the naval, airbase (minus bombers) for a annual fee. The State is going to need a revenue flow.

I bet KSA and UAE are very busy offering deals to HTS and others to provide aid as long as they keep things calm and avoid going full Islamic Retard. Syria is going to need access to the coastal ports to facilitate that aid.

The West should be jumping on this moment to provide support to build up the Lebanese army and their allies within that country. With Iran losing a ground link to Hezbollah and it has been so heavily hit by Israel, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to give that country some autonomy and real self rule.

Would need massive assurances that any funding/arms/training doesn't somehow make its way to Hezbollah supporters within the Lebanese Armed Forces

 

[PrairieFella]

Would need massive assurances that any funding/arms/training doesn't somehow make its way to Hezbollah supporters within the Lebanese Armed Forces

Easy, work with the Christian militias along with the Armed Forces (which is primarily led by Christians as well). It's not perfect but they are certainly better partners than the alternatives.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Would need massive assurances that any funding/arms/training doesn't somehow make its way to Hezbollah supporters within the Lebanese Armed Forces

They also could keep the Russians as a ticket against other actors. The war isn't over yet, it's just entered a new phase and you have a whole bunch of external actors all meddling around: Turkey, Israel, USA, Iran, etc.

Plus the Kurds:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1866157175770390810

 

[Quirky]

Wonder how many thousands of Syrian refugees will be introduced to Canada, let alone passport holders?

What? All these refugees should be going back to Syria….

 

[PrairieFella]

What? All these refugees should be going back to Syria….

Many of them are now PRs or Citizens.

 

[Czech_pivo]

They also could keep the Russians as a ticket against other actors. The war isn't over yet, it's just entered a new phase and you have a whole bunch of external actors all meddling around: Turkey, Israel, USA, Iran, etc.

Plus the Kurds:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1866157175770390810

You know, one thing that I'm not reading/hearing/seeing anything about is how this potentially affects Jordan and what short term, medium term and potentially long term short impacts there could be for them.

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

Easy, work with the Christian militias along with the Armed Forces (which is primarily led by Christians as well). It's not perfect but they are certainly better partners than the alternatives.

The US has provided something like 3 Billion dollars of aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2006, and they have provided military aid to Lebanon for decades before that. Many Lebanese Armed Forces officers have received training at US schools. Three of my fellow 14 International Military Student Officers on my course with the US Army in the 90s were from the Lebanese Armed Forces. I bumped into one on the job fifteen years later Lebanon - came in handy! The US and others (including Canada) train LAF units in Lebanon as well.

The LAF are a respected, multi-faith government institution in Lebanon. While their CDS is by custom a Maronite Christian, the LAF are seen as being above sectarian politics. That was certainly my impression living there for a year.

We do not want to stoke a civil war in Lebanon by creating/funding militias. They went through a terrible civil war that ended not that long ago. The Lebanese parliament is somewhat paralyzed by parties that are aligned on religious lines, and it may surprise some to know that the political block to which Hezbollah belongs contains a Christian political party. There is another Christian political element that supports the Sunni-led political block. There are enmities between some Christian groups that date back to the Civil War. We also have to remember that not all Shia are Hezbollah. There is also the Amal party.

Anyhoo.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

You know, one thing that I'm not reading/hearing/seeing anything about is how this potentially affects Jordan and what short term, medium term and potentially long term short impacts there could be for them.

It may take the heat off of Jordon for a bit, but I suspect Iran may divert it resources to toppling the government of Jordon to gain more access to Israel and Lebanon.

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

It may take the heat off of Jordon for a bit, but I suspect Iran may divert it resources to toppling the government of Jordon to gain more access to Israel and Lebanon.

That would be quite a trick, given that Jordan is something like 95% Sunni, aligned with the West and a relatively stable country. Not to mention that Saudi Arabia borders Jordan. Iran can get money and weapons to Hezbollah in a variety of ways, and it doesn't have to be overland.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It may take the heat off of Jordon for a bit, but I suspect Iran may divert it resources to toppling the government of Jordon to gain more access to Israel and Lebanon.

Yes, that very well could be the case. The shared border between Shia Iraq and Jordan does mean a potential conduit into Jordan. I could see the Saudi's not wanting this to happen.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

That would be quite a trick, given that Jordan is something like 95% Sunni, aligned with the West and a relatively stable country. Not to mention that Saudi Arabia borders Jordan. Iran can get money and weapons to Hezbollah in a variety of ways, and it doesn't have to be overland.

I get the Sunni angle, but there are also a lot of Palestinians, who might be sympathetic to Iran as they see them as their only "friend" in the region. I can't see the IRGC sitting back and do nothing. Jordon has seen an increase in problems in the country due to outside actors, it may not be the IRGC first priority, but I suspect they put more resources at it, while they attempt to rebuild a land access route to Hezbollah.

 

[DBNSG]

That would be quite a trick, given that Jordan is something like 95% Sunni, aligned with the West and a relatively stable country. Not to mention that Saudi Arabia borders Jordan. Iran can get money and weapons to Hezbollah in a variety of ways, and it doesn't have to be overland.

What might Turkey be up to in all of this . Creating a buffer zone or full Ottoman Empire if they could?

 

[KevinB]

I get the Sunni angle, but there are also a lot of Palestinians, who might be sympathetic to Iran as they see them as their only "friend" in the region. I can't see the IRGC sitting back and do nothing. Jordon has seen an increase in problems in the country due to outside actors, it may not be the IRGC first priority, but I suspect they put more resources at it, while they attempt to rebuild a land access route to Hezbollah.

The Jordanians have zero fucks given about taking folks on one way rides out to the desert if they see them as being disruptive.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... as for the Russians, I suspect they will allow a complete withdrawal or allow them to hold the naval, airbase (minus bombers) for a annual fee. The State is going to need a revenue flow ...

Careful -- ask Ukraine how well leasing to the Russian military as legacy tenants worked for them ...

 

[quadrapiper]

Careful -- ask Ukraine how well leasing to the Russian military as legacy tenants worked for them ...

Bit of a different dynamic. Is there any reason that the new Syrian government wouldn't feel they have the absolute upper hand in any leasing agreements with Russia? How much, in USD or other internationally accepted negotiable thank you very much, is a base on the Med worth to the Russians?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Bit of a different dynamic. Is there any reason that the new Syrian government wouldn't feel they have the absolute upper hand in any leasing agreements with Russia? How much, in USD or other internationally accepted negotiable thank you very much, is a base on the Med worth to the Russians?

The upper hand they feel they have may not be the upper hand they actually have. We'll see how things unfold in SYR to see how much of an upper hand - and how sustained it is - the new team & coaches have over USSR 2.0.

The other side of the "how much money is it worth?" coin (no pun intended) is how willing would RUS be to "International Mafia" up to KEEP a base in the Med? Don't seem to be afraid to use the stick elsewhere.

Another question: any other potential bidders for said port?

Interesting times.

 

[KevinB]

The upper hand they feel they have may not be the upper hand they actually have. We'll see how things unfold in SYR to see how much of an upper hand - and how sustained it is - the new team & coaches have over USSR 2.0.

Generally the first few folks in a Regime change don't last long, then you get a Stalinesque type fellow who will hang on for a while.
I doubt anyone in Syria is making long term plans, or at least doing that confidently.

The other side of the "how much money is it worth?" coin (no pun intended) is how willing would RUS be to "International Mafia" up to KEEP a base in the Med? Don't seem to be afraid to use the stick elsewhere.

I suspect Russia will consider it a cost of doing business, both in trying to keep it open, but also accepting that the juice maybe not worth the squeeze in keeping it.
It's current value to Russia is questionable with the Black Sea currently closed for business, other than being an annoyance position to run D/E Subs from in the Med to piss of NATO.

Another question: any other potential bidders for said port?

Tartus is ~86NM almost due East from Asia Napa in Cyprus, less than 25NM from Tripoli, and less than 60NM from the Turkish border to the North.
While it is a Mediterranean Port, it isn't really secure from anything, and with the situation on the ground in Syria being erratic, I doubt anyone would want to do much with it currently. IF one was interested into muscling a position into the ME it wouldn't be a bad spot to use, but that sort of thing is about two centuries late unless you are the Chinese...

Interesting times.

 

[Kirkhill]

Iran’s armed forces ‘at war with themselves’ over fall of Assad

Blame game being played out in Tehran over how and why Syria fell – and whose fault it was

www.telegraph.co.uk

I do love a bit of dry wit.

Asked about the military’s view of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader whose Oct 7 attack on Israel sparked the past 14 months of war, the (IRGC) official said: “I can just tell you that he is no longer a celebrity here.”

What do you reckon? Sandhurst or Eton?

....

A furious blame game is unfolding among Iran’s armed forces over the fall of Bashar al-Assad, The Telegraph has learned.

Officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said commanders of the elite military force were blaming each other “in angry terms” for the collapse of Assad’s regime and the loss of Iranian influence in the region.

“The atmosphere is like something between almost punching each other, punching the walls, yelling at each other and kicking rubbish bins. They are blaming each other, and no one is taking responsibility,” one official from Tehran told The Telegraph.

“No one ever imagined seeing Assad fleeing, as the focus for 10 years had been only on keeping him in power. And it was not because we were in love with him, it was because we wanted to maintain proximity to Israel and Hezbollah.”

Iran spent billions of dollars propping up Assad’s regime after intervening in the Syrian civil war in the mid-2010s.

... behind the scenes, Tehran is in crisis.

The first IRGC official mentioned rumours suggesting that Maj Gen Qaani could be replaced by Khamenei because “many are now calling for it”.

He said Khamenei had summoned commanders several times in recent days as Syrian rebels were advancing towards Damascus.

“The situation is bizarre and heated and angry discussions are taking place – the other concern is what to tell supporters in Iran,” he added.

Arash Azizi, an Iranian historian and author of a book about Soleimani, said others in the Iranian leadership may seize the opportunity for a fundamental reset of foreign policy.

“There is a big segment of the Iranian establishment which realises the gig is up: revolutionary Islamism devoted to confronting America is not going to get them anywhere,” he said.

“That doesn’t mean they want to be a liberal democracy, but they want to be more like Turkey or India, a big power in pursuit of their own interests.”

Some ordinary Iranian citizens, however, are celebrating the fall of Assad and told The Telegraph they hope the Ayatollah will go the same way.

“I celebrated with a bottle of aragh sagi [Iranian moonshine] and the hope for the fall of the mullahs,” one Tehran resident said. “The region deserves peace, and that won’t happen until they are gone.”

“More than 90 per cent of the people are happy and celebrating it, the mullahs should know that this is what will happen if they don’t have the people’s support,” he said.

“The repression of people leads to dictators’ downfall,” he added. “The mullahs will soon regret their actions in Moscow.”

 

[Underway]

The upper hand they feel they have may not be the upper hand they actually have. We'll see how things unfold in SYR to see how much of an upper hand - and how sustained it is - the new team & coaches have over USSR 2.0.

The other side of the "how much money is it worth?" coin (no pun intended) is how willing would RUS be to "International Mafia" up to KEEP a base in the Med? Don't seem to be afraid to use the stick elsewhere.

Another question: any other potential bidders for said port?

Interesting times.

Russia has already abondoned the base in Tartus. I've seen the OS satellite images. Them losing that base and the airfield means that their African supply chain is heavily disrupted. So their Libyan faction is now under threat (because that's the next step in the supply chain) and all those irriating Russian mercs in Africa are going to be on their own for a while. France is laughing their ass off as is Italy I'm sure.

Russia may try to take this opportunity to create a port in Libya instead. We'll have to see where this goes.

 

[brihard]

Russia has already abondoned the base in Tartus. I've seen the OS satellite images. Them losing that base and the airfield means that their African supply chain is heavily disrupted. So their Libyan faction is now under threat (because that's the next step in the supply chain) and all those irriating Russian mercs in Africa are going to be on their own for a while. France is laughing their ass off as is Italy I'm sure.

Russia may try to take this opportunity to create a port in Libya instead. We'll have to see where this goes.

Did Russia abandon the base, or did they simply sail their vessels as a precaution?