Cuba next? (split from Iran, other threads)

[suffolkowner]

China and Vietnam enter the chat.

Are China and Vietnam really communist? Without market driven economic activity? Is Cuba?
Reality is Cuba is closer and maybe Trump needs a distraction from his Iran distraction

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

This is going off thread a bit, but some of us remember a briefly softer socialist Cuba which became a pariah because it had to align with the USSR to resist American aggression. That caused it to foment and support, as a proxy for the USSR, revolutionary ideology and action in South and Central America and Africa.

While the country appears as a nice tourist haven, the countries most supportive of Cuba at this time are Russia and China (and formerly, Venezuela). In the absence of a thorough dive into whatever intelligence there is on Cuban influence operations in the Western hemisphere I'd approach any overtures to them with great caution.

That said, I don't think much of Trump's current approach. The US approach to that country is complex and greatly influenced by past anti-communist prejudices and the Cuban ex-pat community. There have been decades of missed opportunities to bring Cuba into the fold. If anything, the current US actions will drive it away.

It's even a little more than that.

Castro made actual openings to the US shortly after they booted Batista out of there. It wanted a fair and open relationship. Castro was a socialist, but not a Marxist-Leninist, at that point. All he wanted was for the US to keep out of Cuban politics and to accept Cuba as a sovereign nation, in exchange for with, Cuba would accept US corporations operating in Cuba under Cuban rules.

But the Banana companies that made up the banana republic of Batista , who exploited Cubans to enrich themselves like the robber barons they were, could not tolerate ANY interference with their abusive behaviour (not to mention their immoral behaviour they could not get away with inside the US) and they had the ears of the Washington politicians (not to mention their wallets), and in the end, it is they who pushed Cuba into the arms of the USSR. Ever since that day, the US policy towards Cuba has been the one punishing them for what they are and actually making their government failure 9if any) what it is today with incredibly punishing sanctions that few nations could have withstood for so long.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Appearances can be deceiving...

Trump Thinks Cuba is Another Venezuela. Here’s Why He’s Wrong.​

As protests grip Cuba, some in D.C. see a replay of Caracas — but the reality is far more complicated.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/03/21/trump-cuba-protests-perspective-00836477

 

[FJAG]

But the Banana companies that made up the banana republic of Batista . . .

Don't forget Meyer Lansky and the other Mafia that ran the casinos. Which brings up the whole Mafia/JFK conspiracy thing.

 

[HavokFour]

And we have a blink.

Trump appears to relax oil blockade on Cuba as Russian tanker arrives

US president says he has ‘no problem’ with countries sending oil to Cuba, in potential lifeline to island nation

www.theguardian.com

EDIT: Additional source.

U.S. Allows Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Despite Blockade

The tanker full of crude oil could reach its expected destination by Monday, providing a lifeline to the island amid intense U.S. pressure.

www.nytimes.com

 

[brihard]

And we have a blink.

Trump appears to relax oil blockade on Cuba as Russian tanker arrives

US president says he has ‘no problem’ with countries sending oil to Cuba, in potential lifeline to island nation

www.theguardian.com

EDIT: Additional source.

U.S. Allows Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Despite Blockade

The tanker full of crude oil could reach its expected destination by Monday, providing a lifeline to the island amid intense U.S. pressure.

www.nytimes.com

Decent of them to decide not to engage in piracy I guess.

 

[HavokFour]

Uh oh.

Exclusive: U.S. eyes attack-drone threat from Cuba

Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels and possibly Key West, Fla., 90 miles north of Havana, according to classified intelligence shared with Axios.

With certain Russian and Iranian drone technology, more than just Key West could be in range.

 

[GR66]

Uh oh.

Exclusive: U.S. eyes attack-drone threat from Cuba



With certain Russian and Iranian drone technology, more than just Key West could be in range.

Please tell me in what alternate universe it would make any sense for Cuba to launch a preemptive military attack against the United States.

With all the rhetoric from the US about Cuba being "next" would it be possible for Cuba to seek to obtain drones to counter some type of US military action against Cuba? Sure. But any suggestion that Cuba is planning an attack on the US if frankly pure BS or preparation of political justification for US military action against Cuba.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It frankly will be better to get regime change in Cuba, sooner than later. This removes it from the threat matrix. Lot's of pressure and back door for select individuals to leave safely and a promise to drop sanctions, along with a lease extension for the base.

 

[brihard]

It frankly will be better to get regime change in Cuba, sooner than later. This removes it from the threat matrix. Lot's of pressure and back door for select individuals to leave safely and a promise to drop sanctions, along with a lease extension for the base.

“Threat matrix”? What real threat is Cuba to the U.S.?

The U.S. sanctions on Cuba are arbitrary and unilateral. It’s not the 1960s anymore. Cuba’s no more shitty a government than many the U.S. happily does business with, and it’s less awful than some. There’s no justified grounds for continuing decades of U.S. subjugation of Cuba’s economy over political difference. It’s nothing more than ‘screw you, we do it because we want to and we can’.

Want Cuba to embark on a path to democratization? Let its people have an honest shot at economic opportunity and growth, and if their government chooses to stand in the way of that, let it be clear that they’re the only obstacle- not some arbitrary external blockade.

 

[Maxman1]

This!!!! If the US had been treating with Cuba in the same way they have been treating with Vietnam for the past 40 years there is a very good chance that Cuba would be a much more capitalist oriented, social-democratic country today. To the point its authoritarian government would soon be a complete democracy a la Scandinavia just by a sort of osmosis.

There's just one problem with that:

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Did you have to drag Bill Clinton in the picture?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

“Threat matrix”? What real threat is Cuba to the U.S.?

The U.S. sanctions on Cuba are arbitrary and unilateral. It’s not the 1960s anymore. Cuba’s no more shitty a government than many the U.S. happily does business with, and it’s less awful than some. There’s no justified grounds for continuing decades of U.S. subjugation of Cuba’s economy over political difference. It’s nothing more than ‘screw you, we do it because we want to and we can’.

Want Cuba to embark on a path to democratization? Let its people have an honest shot at economic opportunity and growth, and if their government chooses to stand in the way of that, let it be clear that they’re the only obstacle- not some arbitrary external blockade.

If the regime continues, other State actors will eventually try to use Cuba as a launching point and it would mean another Cuban missile crisis. The US must spend time and effort making sure that does not happen. Getting rid of their shitty government will help eliminate that issue. Plus make life better for the average Cuban

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Plus make life better for the average Cuban

When has making life better for the people of another country been on the USA's list of "things to do"?