Demography and the future of the West

[a_majoor]

Mark Steyn has a long article which spells out one possible future for the nations of the West. A short exerpt to start:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110007760

THE CENTURY AHEAD

It's the Demography, Stupid
The real reason the West is in danger of extinction.

BY MARK STEYN
Wednesday, January 4, 2006 12:01 a.m. EST

Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries. There'll probably still be a geographical area on the map marked as Italy or the Netherlands--probably--just as in Istanbul there's still a building called St. Sophia's Cathedral. But it's not a cathedral; it's merely a designation for a piece of real estate. Likewise, Italy and the Netherlands will merely be designations for real estate. The challenge for those who reckon Western civilization is on balance better than the alternatives is to figure out a way to save at least some parts of the West.

One obstacle to doing that is that, in the typical election campaign in your advanced industrial democracy, the political platforms of at least one party in the United States and pretty much all parties in the rest of the West are largely about what one would call the secondary impulses of society--government health care, government day care (which Canada's thinking of introducing), government paternity leave (which Britain's just introduced). We've prioritized the secondary impulse over the primary ones: national defense, family, faith and, most basic of all, reproductive activity--"Go forth and multiply," because if you don't you won't be able to afford all those secondary-impulse issues, like cradle-to-grave welfare.

Americans sometimes don't understand how far gone most of the rest of the developed world is down this path: In the Canadian and most Continental cabinets, the defense ministry is somewhere an ambitious politician passes through on his way up to important jobs like the health department. I don't think Don Rumsfeld would regard it as a promotion if he were moved to Health and Human Services.

Read the rest

 

[zipperhead_cop]

Some other poignant quotes from that article:

"One way "societies choose to fail or succeed" is by choosing what to worry about. The Western world has delivered more wealth and more comfort to more of its citizens than any other civilization in history, and in return we've developed a great cult of worrying."

"The default mode of our elites is that anything that happens--from terrorism to tsunamis--can be understood only as deriving from the perniciousness of Western civilization. As Jean-Francois Revel wrote, 'Clearly, a civilization that feels guilty for everything it is and does will lack the energy and conviction to defend itself.'"

" When it comes to forecasting the future, the birthrate is the nearest thing to hard numbers. If only a million babies are born in 2006, it's hard to have two million adults enter the workforce in 2026 (or 2033, or 2037, or whenever they get around to finishing their Anger Management and Queer Studies degrees). And the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they're running out a lot faster than the oil is. "Replacement" fertility rate--i.e., the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller--is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?"

"So the world's people are a lot more Islamic than they were back then and a lot less "Western." Europe is significantly more Islamic, having taken in during that period some 20 million Muslims (officially)--or the equivalents of the populations of four European Union countries (Ireland, Belgium, Denmark and Estonia). Islam is the fastest-growing religion in the West: In the U.K., more Muslims than Christians attend religious services each week.
Can these trends continue for another 30 years without having consequences? Europe by the end of this century will be a continent after the neutron bomb: The grand buildings will still be standing, but the people who built them will be gone. We are living through a remarkable period: the self-extinction of the races who, for good or ill, shaped the modern world. "

"A decade and a half after victory in the Cold War and end-of-history triumphalism, the "what do you leave behind?" question is more urgent than most of us expected. "The West," as a concept, is dead, and the West, as a matter of demographic fact, is dying. "

So it looks like the way to save our society is to have more babies (how Bloc of an idea).  I'm all for tryin' > but how do we make it affordable?

 

[48Highlander]

just get rid of all those silly anti-child-labour laws.  Put the little buggers to work as soon as they hit 5.  Not only will this provide for their own upkeep, but the reduction in costs to companies will allow us to compete on the global marketplace without needing to subsidize our industries!  ;D

 

[GO!!!]

For example, one day in 2004, a couple of Canadians returned home, to Lester B. Pearson International Airport in Toronto. They were the son and widow of a fellow called Ahmed Said Khadr, who back on the Pakistani-Afghan frontier was known as "al-Kanadi." Why? Because he was the highest-ranking Canadian in al Qaeda--plenty of other Canucks in al Qaeda, but he was the Numero Uno. In fact, one could argue that the Khadr family is Canada's principal contribution to the war on terror. Granted they're on the wrong side (if you'll forgive my being judgmental) but no one can argue that they aren't in the thick of things. One of Mr. Khadr's sons was captured in Afghanistan after killing a U.S. Special Forces medic. Another was captured and held at Guantanamo. A third blew himself up while killing a Canadian soldier in Kabul. Pa Khadr himself died in an al Qaeda shootout with Pakistani forces in early 2004. And they say we Canadians aren't doing our bit in this war!

It's good to see that someone besides me sees a problem with the Khadr's fighting the war on terrorism from the other side!

 

[Infanteer]

...and allow polygamy.  If I can convince wife #1 that #2 and #3 are for the good of Western civilization, then why should the state stop me.... :blotto:

 

[Infanteer]

A third blew himself up while killing a Canadian soldier in Kabul.

Stein should do his research - that guy is alive and well and being extradited to the United States....

 

[GO!!!]

...and allow polygamy.  If I can convince wife #1 that #2 and #3 are for the good of Western civilization, then why should the state stop me.... :blotto:

There is'nt any reason for it not to be allowed; gays can "marry", common law spouses have the same rights as real spouses, is there really a good reason to continue outlawing polygamy?

Arguing "taste" or "morals" is out - the gays proved that, so the only thing holding us back is the law!

I bet that there will be a constitutional challenge to include polygamous marriage within the legal definition within my lifetime, especially given the high rates of immigration from muslim countries - before you laugh - remember 40 years ago, the thought of gay men kissing each other on the National after their "marriage" would have been a sick joke, now it is law!

I can't wait for my 3 other wives - no more houswork for me!  >

 

[3rd Herd]

Go move to the East Kootneys, recent Kimberley Advister article complaining about wife numbers 2 and 3 from the sects just accross the boarder taking up space at battered womens shelter in Cranbrook. Local MP said "this requires serious study on a provinical/state/national level". Reminiscent of the underground railroad. Three wives and all the extra nagging, ones enough, no wait I got rid of her.

 

[Infanteer]

I think that is a problem with polygamy - it tends to feature young girls farmed off to relationships that they don't really concent to.  But then again, we have certain sub-cultures in Canada doing this all the time with arranged monogamous marriages, so maybe it isn't polygamy itself that is the problem.

 

[TCBF]

Well, we can have these girls towing kids around Jane and Finch looking for the fathers of the children, or have four or five of them married to one oil worker in Fort Mac, with the kids getting looked after, or else the wives feel 'the hand' at the end of the day.  What is your bet for 2056?

Tom

 

[Infanteer]

What is your bet for 2056?

That Afghan hillmen will be chuckling at our piles of dust....

 

[GO!!!]

Well, we can have these girls towing kids around Jane and Finch looking for the fathers of the children, or have four or five of them married to one oil worker in Fort Mac, with the kids getting looked after

So true, plus, just think of how prosperous a five income household could be!

Perhaps this is the future of Canada!

Think, a house full of Cpls x5....52,000/yr = 260,000/yr

And saying I grace one of my wives with a child every year, until I'm 65 (keeping in mind that the wife stock will have to be rotated to ensure continued fertility)

I could do the patriotic duty of 25 or 30 conventional nuclear families - although it would be a life of pious service to Canada! 

Do you guys think my present wife will agree with my patriotic polygamy? 

 

[Infanteer]

Do you guys think my present wife will agree with my patriotic polygamy? 

...and there in lies the rub.  Female reproductive strategy favouring a single mate is hard to fight against, no matter what the law says.... :warstory:

 

[48Highlander]

...and there in lies the rub.  Female reproductive strategy favouring a single mate is hard to fight against, no matter what the law says.... :warstory:

Naw, that's just cultural indoctrination.  If you look at our closest genetic cousins in the animal kingdom, there's very little of the pairing-off that occurs in human society.  We just need to convince our women-folk to be more open-minded

 

[Infanteer]

"C'mon hun; the Gorillas and Chimpanzees do it....."

 

[a_majoor]

And the strange tangent award of the year goes too....

How did we go from the Khadrs to polygamy to Infanteer and GO planning to repopulate Canada?

The sheer beauty and creativity of Mark Steyn's writing, of course... ;D

 

[GO!!!]

And the strange tangent award of the year goes too....

How did we go from the Khadrs to polygamy to Infanteer and GO planning to repopulate Canada?

This is a thread about demographics no?

I plan to be a sire of the level of promiscuity of Genghis Khan - with my oats sown far and wide, as is my patriotic duty!

Besides, "Scottish Canadians" are what made this country great - how could we be wrong with more of us? Have you ever heard of "Scottish Gangsters" or the "Scottish Triads"? Of course not!

 

[Infanteer]

Whatever, you fail to understand that it is the blood of the Norse that drives Canada forward!!!  :dontpanic:

 

[mover1]

HEll I am polygamous right now,


Just don't tell my wife ;D

 

[Dog]

While I do think that the article is slightly alarmist, the population issue IS a conundrum that we are unlikely to solve... go down to your local mall and you can see all that our society aspires to... there are few babies; merely smaller cell-phones... one of the real problems with the population issue is that you can't even discuss it without someone thinking it's a complete joke.

I think another quote worth looking at is:

"The Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry, the Royal 22nd Regiment and other Canucks have been participating in Afghanistan, on one side of the conflict, and the Khadr family had been over there participating on the other side. Nonetheless, the prime minister of Canada thought Boy Khadr's claims on the public health system was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate his own deep personal commitment to "diversity." Asked about the Khadrs' return to Toronto, he said, "I believe that once you are a Canadian citizen, you have the right to your own views and to disagree."

That's the wonderful thing about multiculturalism: You can choose which side of the war you want to fight on. When the draft card arrives, just tick "home team" or "enemy," according to taste. The Canadian prime minister is a typical late-stage Western politician: He could have said, well, these are contemptible people and I know many of us are disgusted at the idea of our tax dollars being used to provide health care for a man whose Canadian citizenship is no more than a flag of convenience, but unfortunately that's the law and, while we can try to tighten it, it looks like this lowlife's got away with it. Instead, his reflex instinct was to proclaim this as a wholehearted demonstration of the virtues of the multicultural state. Like many enlightened Western leaders, the Canadian prime minister will be congratulating himself on his boundless tolerance even as the forces of intolerance consume him."