- Reaction score
- 33
- Points
- 560
Although you can't really be enthused about having too much of a population "boom", the facts of a population "bust" are equally appalling. It isn't only "old Europe" which is in demographic trouble although there has been the most visibility), Russia is in a spiral, and even the far East could be facing a demographic melt down by mid century, with Japan leading the way, and China, who's demographics are wildly skewed by the "one child per family" policy meeting the cultural preference for male children, following along soon after.
Although there are some schools of thought which equate overall population growth with GDP growth, I think this overlooks the fact that economic growth is determined by cultural factors, such as the free exchange of goods, ideas and capital. Societies where these factors are hindered (i.e. fundamentalist Islamic nations, communist or socialist economies, autocracies or anarchistic failed states) will do poorly regardless of population. The vast explosion of people in the Middle east or Africa has not translated into increased wealth (indeed, GDP per capita is declining as static GDP is divided among more and more people). My prediction is that India will be the economic superpower in mid century, given the relative ease which goods, ideas and capital can move (compared to their peer group nations), and perhaps South America will be moving briskly along behind.
Mark Steyn points out that young Europeans will not be sitting about waiting to be absorbed into Islam or working their ***es off to support a bloated geriatric welfare state, they will be heading to the multi-cultural nations of the West, preferentially the United States and Australia. We might get a shot in the arm if we can get our act together and become attractive to this new pioneer class; I doubt they want to go from Old Europe to "Neo Old Europe" if there is a choice.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,18159605%255E7583,00.html
Although there are some schools of thought which equate overall population growth with GDP growth, I think this overlooks the fact that economic growth is determined by cultural factors, such as the free exchange of goods, ideas and capital. Societies where these factors are hindered (i.e. fundamentalist Islamic nations, communist or socialist economies, autocracies or anarchistic failed states) will do poorly regardless of population. The vast explosion of people in the Middle east or Africa has not translated into increased wealth (indeed, GDP per capita is declining as static GDP is divided among more and more people). My prediction is that India will be the economic superpower in mid century, given the relative ease which goods, ideas and capital can move (compared to their peer group nations), and perhaps South America will be moving briskly along behind.
Mark Steyn points out that young Europeans will not be sitting about waiting to be absorbed into Islam or working their ***es off to support a bloated geriatric welfare state, they will be heading to the multi-cultural nations of the West, preferentially the United States and Australia. We might get a shot in the arm if we can get our act together and become attractive to this new pioneer class; I doubt they want to go from Old Europe to "Neo Old Europe" if there is a choice.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,18159605%255E7583,00.html
