Drones, the Air Littoral, and the Looming Irrelevance of the USAF

[HavokFour]

Hello Autowarcomm

Hegseth announces a new drone-focused warfare command​

The Pentagon chief announced the intention to create a new four-star command to oversee the rollout of autonomous and robotic capabilities in what he called “the fastest peacetime shift in modern military history.”

He acknowledged that “the pace of war is changing faster than the process to support it.” Iran commonly uses cheap drones, including those that have killed U.S. troops during the seven-month war. Hegseth pointed to Ukraine’s pioneering use of drones to combat Russian forces — something American forces have learned from firsthand.

“Ukraine’s lesson is not that one type of drone wins wars, but rather the need for a purpose-built system that maximizes the ability to adapt,” Hegseth said.

https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-pentagon-generals-job-cuts-67a20b026ee858895c7e5ff7fadbc029

Musk and Luckey get to pick out what the US Military needs to buy.

The store making the grocery list, as is the custom.

 

[Kirkhill]

Do as much as you can with a keyboard before you run out of options and have to send a rifle.

 

[Kirkhill]

T-7 in the Air Links Up with Simulators for LVC Flight in USAF First

A T-7 Red Hawk trainer jet connected with two simulators on the ground for a live-virtual-constructive flight for the Air Force on Sept. 16.

www.airandspaceforces.com

When does a simulator controlling a virtual aircraft become a controller for an uncrewed aircraft?

 

[ytz]

The FQ-44 had its first autonomous engagement test a few months ago. Here's a great documentary on CCAs:

I like this piece too. Excuse the AI. CCAs performed badly in some wargames. This has been used as a stick against them by those who don't get the context. Also, really helped inform requirements for next set of CCAs.

 

[Kirkhill]

The FQ-44 had its first autonomous engagement test a few months ago. Here's a great documentary on CCAs:

I like this piece too. Excuse the AI. CCAs performed badly in some wargames. This has been used as a stick against them by those who don't get the context. Also, really helped inform requirements for next set of CCAs.

300 MUSD - F47 - Battle Manager
30 MUSD - FQ42, FQ44, MQ28 - CCA
3 MUSD - Tomahawk, SM6, Valkyrie, Hypersonics
300 KUSD - Low Cost Cruise Missiles
300-3 KUSD - Brilliant sub-munitions carried by all the above

Autonomy in final engagement at every level.

 

[Kirkhill]

Increasing the available launch points.

Hanwha Aerospace unveiled its HPMRL rocket artillery for the Marine Corps - Naval News

At ADEX 2025, held in Seoul, South Korea, from October 17 to 24, 2025, Hanwha Aerospace unveiled its High-Performance Multiple Rocket Launcher (HPMRL) system for the Republic of Korea Marine Corps for the first time.

www.navalnews.com

A truck built to launch missiles in Sea State 5...

And the truck has an autonomous variant.

Max Flex.

 

[ytz]

300 MUSD - F47 - Battle Manager
30 MUSD - FQ42, FQ44, MQ28 - CCA
3 MUSD - Tomahawk, SM6, Valkyrie, Hypersonics
300 KUSD - Low Cost Cruise Missiles
300-3 KUSD - Brilliant sub-munitions carried by all the above

Autonomy in final engagement at every level.

This is the right thought process here. A cost pyramid that hopefully matches the target value and/or threat pyramids in a manner that negates cost asymmetry both of offence and defence.

This is also why I detest the Gripen. The CCAs could well be like 70% of the capability of a Gripen for half the acquisition cost and a third of the operating cost. One GCAP with 3 CCAs would be substantially more lethal than 6-8 Gripens, despite the package costing the same to buy.

 

[Kirkhill]

This is the right thought process here. A cost pyramid that hopefully matches the target value and/or threat pyramids in a manner that negates cost asymmetry both of offence and defence.

This is also why I detest the Gripen. The CCAs could well be like 70% of the capability of a Gripen for half the acquisition cost and a third of the operating cost. One GCAP with 3 CCAs would be substantially more lethal than 6-8 Gripens, despite the package costing the same to buy.

Personally, for Canadian defence, I would prefer 100 to 150 trailer laumched MQ58 Valkyries at 4 MUSD each over 6 to 8 Gripens at 70 MUSD apiece.

More sensors and effectors in the air faster with longer ranges in all weathers.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The FQ-44 had its first autonomous engagement test a few months ago. Here's a great documentary on CCAs:

I like this piece too. Excuse the AI. CCAs performed badly in some wargames. This has been used as a stick against them by those who don't get the context. Also, really helped inform requirements for next set of CCAs.

Their great great grandfathers did well in the Berka valley

 

[Kirkhill]

Forgot to mention:

The USMC Valkyrie solution is also being pursued by Airbus, but with a European pilot, for the Luftwaffe.

Update on the Euro-Valkyrie.

European U740 Variant Of The XQ-58A Valkyrie Has Flown

A team-up of Airbus and Kratos has put the U740 into the sky as Germany races to field advanced air combat drones by 2029. Airbus and Kratos fly the U740 in Europe as Germany races to field combat drones by 2029.

www.twz.com

 

[GR66]

Russia’s once-feared Lancet kamikaze drone is losing its edge

A Russian drone unit fired about 100 Lancet loitering munitions over three months and hit only three targets, according to pro-Russian militant Pavel Gubarev, who said Ukrainian air defenses brought down most of the rest. The account points to a

defence-blog.com

A Russian drone unit fired about 100 Lancet loitering munitions over three months and hit only three targets, according to pro-Russian militant Pavel Gubarev, who said Ukrainian air defenses brought down most of the rest. The account points to a sharp drop in the effectiveness of one of Russia’s most widely used strike drones

The three targets hit were a self-propelled artillery gun, an infantry dugout and a roadside shop, Gubarev said. Ukrainian air defenses neutralized most of the remaining drones, and Russian forces destroyed some of them themselves because of poor coordination between units.

Gubarev put the price of a single Lancet at 3 million to 5.5 million rubles ($37,000 to $67,000), meaning the unit spent roughly 300 million to 500 million rubles (about $3.7 million to $6.1 million) on the three hits. The Oryx open-source project has estimated the cost of a Lancet at about $35,000, in line with his figures.

He blamed the unit’s leadership rather than its operators, saying commanders used the expensive drones without proper preparation while sending reports of supposedly successful results up the chain of command.

Like any weapon there is a difference between having a capability and effectively using that capability. Handing out drones like candy won't automatically result in destruction of the enemy. There is a whole bunch of C4ISR required to make that capability effective.