Don Martin: Tories to warn of second coalition
September 09, 2009
Now that Iggy is no longer iffy in his official government opposition, the prospect of parliamentary elections becoming the corporate equivalent of an annual general meeting is no longer in much doubt.
Sadly, seemingly unavoidably, off we go for the second vote in a year with only the writ-drop date and the precise trigger providing the suspense for this insane $300-million ego-stimulus package.
Given the drift of most polling, the inevitable result would seem pre-ordained as either a minority government under Conservative or Liberal rule.
But hold on a second. The Conservatives would have you believe there's a third option -- and ringing the alarm against that prospect will be the big fear factor in their campaign strategy.
Bear with me here, but they're going to warn voters to beware the Liberal coalition.
It seems preposterous at first blush. The Liberals are under new leadership from Michael Ignatieff, who was the last and most reluctant MP to endorse last December's short-lived coalition with the New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois that would have given us, ugh, Prime Minister Stéphane Dion. Besides, raising the coalition bogeyman will peeve Quebecers all over again as their separatist BQ option is ridiculed as unworthy of a federal role in governing.
But the way Conservatives plan to spin it, any election result that puts Mr. Ignatieff within a dozen or two seats of them will induce an opposition party partnership to seize power.
It's not as implausible as it sounds. A parliamentary do-over with Prime Minister Stephen Harper attempting a third conciliation under minority rule would seem unworkable given the partisan hostility he brings to the Commons.
So what would Mr. Ignatieff do if he came within a brass-ring grab of 24 Sussex Drive? Hell, he'd lunge for it -- with a little help from his left-leaning friends.
The Liberals would have to be within 20 seats of the Conservatives, but the prospect of a snap non-confidence vote by an opposition trio demanding the right to rule cannot be discounted.
After all, a Liberal party beaten down to 77 seats had the gall to attempt a government grab from a ruling party with 144 MPs, just two months after the last vote, a mutiny only prevented when Gov.-Gen. Michaelle Jean granted Mr. Harper an emergency adjournment of Parliament.
But she could not reject a Liberal-led coalition's pitch to govern if the alternative was the THIRD election inside of 15 months, a unimaginable scenario that would unleash a fed-up fury across the land.
"Is it fair game to say the coalition is a plausible government-in-waiting? Yes," argued one senior Conservative strategist on Wednesday. "After all, what is this election about if it's not about power?"
True enough, although in New Democrat leader Jack Layton's case, it could be a question of survival.
He's scrambling to find the escape route from a shark tank in which his party's 36 seats are the dinner menu, but finds himself trapped between a government he can't support and a prime minister who won't deal him a get-out-of-jail-free card.
Having Mr. Layton find a way out of that mess is the only election-prevention option, which is why most parties have given up and are unleashing attack ads and war room press releases to test their campaign readiness.
Of course, the spectre of a Liberal-led coalition is far from perfect attack material. A better target would be savaging Michael Ignatieff as a visitor who has spent too much time overseas, vacations out of the country and advertises himself as a world traveller. There's undoubtedly plenty of Conservative attack ads with that drift ready to fill the airwaves.
But it makes more sense than campaigning against the Liberals as giddy tax-and-spenders, given how the Harper Conservatives have escalated spending and boosted debt at a pace unmatched in Canadian history, with no firm plan to balance the budget.
Besides, the coalition bogeyman fits with the Conservatives' other campaign strategy. A recent Nanos poll found 55 per cent of Canadians have a positive view of minority governments because they force political antagonists to co-operate. But that perception is tainted by the view they can be inefficient.
If the government falls as expected early next month, it will be proof positive that minorities are inefficient and uncooperative and give public opinion a boost to endorse a majority mandate for somebody.
If the Conservatives can successfully fearmonger the masses into believing a Liberal coalition is the alternative to giving them total parliamentary control, Iggy's fall election gamble will look increasingly iffy.
National Post
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