Election 2015

[Infanteer]

The majority of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi.  Therefore, invade Afghanistan and Iraq.

However, the wahhabi/salafist inspired ideology of AQ only sees and speaks to Dar-al-Islam and Dar-al-Harb, so your western logic based upon western imposed state lines does not work.

 

[dapaterson]

I'm looking at it more from the perspective of state sponsors of activity.  Cut off the water, and the tree will wither.  While the ideology may well remain, it's more difficult to have any significant effect without money.

 

[DBA]

In my opinion politicians, especially Conservative politicians are already basing their platforms on the wishes of the 34 to 75% voter cohorts. The wishes and views of the 18 to 34 year old cohorts should matter, but since they don't vote their views don't really count all that much.

I think that is overstated, their views do count - they cast 20% of the votes in the previous election and are 28% of the eligible population.

 

[a_majoor]

An example of the Pareto principle in action. The amount of effort needed to get that last 20% is disproportionate to the results expected, while the same effort placed in other demogrraphics (which are collectively more numerous and more inclined to vote) produces a much greater result.

This is sometimes known as the 80-20 rule, or the "Law of the vital few"

 

[Brad Sallows]

> being squeezed out like tothpaste from a tube....

Squeezed out like something from something, in any event...

 

[Edward Campbell]

Remember this, from two years ago?

The National Post is reporting on a poll that predicts a Liberal majority in a 308 seat HoC if an election were held today and if Justin Trudeau were leading the LPC.

The poll results are:

BQ:                      6%         
Conservatives:  30%
Greens:              2%
Liberals:            41%
NDP:                20%

But when names, especially the Trudeau name, are taken away the results are that the Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie with 32% and 30% respectively. Still, that represents a dip for the Conservatives and a real, measurable surge for the Liberals.

It is likely that, in 2015:

1. Justin Trudeau will lead the Liberals and the party will get a celebrity bump at the polls from that;

2. There will be a 338 seat HoC ~ advantage to the Conservatives; and

3. There will have been expensive, aggressive and nasty advertising campaigns between now and then ~ advantage Conservatives because they have, by far and away, the most money to spend on advertising.

Consequently: another Conservative majority government seems likely.

Journalist David Akin just posted to sets of current poll results:

Latest polls from Abacus Data and Ekos Research find identical Conservative Party of Canada - Parti conservateur du Canada and NDP support. But Abacus has Liberal Party of Canada | Parti libéral du Canada at 33 vs Ekos 29.[/img]

                And

In commentary accompanying his firm's latest poll, Frank Graves writes: "The Liberals are now below 29 points for the first time in a long time and the long-term trend is not positive.
The Conservatives, while down from a high of 35 points, now enjoy a small but statistically significant lead based on the Liberal decline.

The real story here, however, may be a gradual but significant rebound in NDP fortunes, who have climbed from below 18 points to just over 23 and they now trail the Liberals by just five points." Plus there's this interesting response:

I still believe that the CPC, led by Prime Minister Harper will form the next government. I think he has two things going for him:

    1. The expansion of seats in the suburbs where the 35+ and socially conservative immigrant community is centred; and

    2. The "two front war" which M. Trudeau and the Liberals must wage against both Prime Minister Harper and Opposition Leader Mulcair.

 

[a_majoor]

While Tom Mulcair can run circles around the Young Dauphin in any debate or discussion of political platforms, philosophies or proposed courses of action, his biggest disadvantage is the cone of silence the media has placed over him. The few times I have been able to see him in action is actually quite scary (as in scary smart), which would work to scuttle the Liberals in the urban Ontario ridings that the LPC need to grow outside of Quebec.

This makes it very difficult for the NDP to score points, and reduces them to trying for the knockout blow in the debates (remember "You had a choice, sir!"), which in reality is much harder to accomplish.

 

[ModlrMike]

Yes, I think the debates might actually mater a great deal this time. Mr Harper really just has to control himself and look Prime Ministerial, while letting the others petulantly whip themselves into a frenzy.

 

[Brad Sallows]

A petulant frenzy?

Not safe for sensitive and/or aggrieved folks.  "Honey Don't You Want A Man Like Me" (3:18)

 

[Edward Campbell]

Graeme MacKay, editorial cartoonist of the  The Hamilton Spectator, comments on the LPC's defence policy:

 

[Fishbone Jones]

:goodpost:

This

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Finance Minister, Joe Oliver, will bring down his budget on Tue, 21 Apr 15.

Mercedes Stephenson tweeted that "Oliver says 2 basic truths: govt can't spend more than it earns and can't tax self out of problems."

This will be the CPC's electuion year budget and based on Mr. Oliver's signbals we can safely assume that:

    1. It will be a balanced budget, with not too much slight of hand to make that happen;

    2. There will be tax breaks, mostly for middle aged, middle class suburbanites;

    3. There will be no major tax increases; and

    4. Therefore, defence spending will continue to stagnate, at best, but there will be announcements about new things to come - to be made in Canada - in the not too distant future.

 

[a_majoor]

So when it is time to get off the X for the election, it is the Disco era all over again:

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michael-den-tandt-the-budget-and-the-liberal-response-to-it-will-yield-the-ultimate-ballot-question

Michael Den Tandt: The budget — and the Liberal response to it — will yield the ultimate ballot question
Michael Den Tandt | March 29, 2015 | Last Updated: Mar 31 2:08 PM ET
More from Michael Den Tandt | @mdentandt

Here’s a bet: Joe Oliver’s budget — current whereabouts unknown, somewhat like the Finance Minister himself — and the Liberal response to it, will yield the ultimate ballot question in the 2015 election. That’s because, security craze aside, the economy is the only big remaining file on which the two front-running parties, Conservatives and Liberals, are still battling over the same turf. And it is prime real estate.

That’s right. Intriguingly, after years of policy convergence among Grits, Tories and Dippers, we’re seeing a divergence this election year, with each moving into a pattern that will feel oddly familiar to anyone who remembers disco.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau crossed a Rubicon of sorts this past month. March 9 in Toronto he planted his flag on a defence of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The speech was nominally about liberty; practically, it was a party-defining moment in which Mr. Trudeau cast himself as a champion of pluralism, and Stephen Harper as its foe. The ensuing howls of outrage merely solidified the frame. Then last Tuesday, Mr. Trudeau declared his opposition to the government’s motion to extend and expand its military mission in Iraq.

Practically, since the motion was bound to pass anyway, this was of little moment. But symbolically, it is significant. It marks a shift away from the Liberals’ vaunted Responsibility to Protect doctrine, under which they launched the Afghan mission in 2002, expanded it in late 2005, and voted to extend it in 2008, and back towards a non-interventionism more characteristic of the Chrétien years, and especially the Pierre Trudeau era. This is the Liberal party, on social and foreign policy, deliberately stepping leftward.

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.
What’s fascinating is the contrast this creates between the Blue and the Red, now deadlocked in public support. For each seems content to let the other carve out its territory. The Liberals are not equivocating about bombing the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham, as they were last fall; they’re dead-set against it. And the Tories, with the exception perhaps of Multiculturalism Minister Jason Kenney, seem content to become the Party for Those Who Fear and Mistrust Islam. Mr. Harper certainly has not uttered a word in weeks to suggest otherwise. Liberal doves vs. Tory hawks: It’s 2003 again, or 1983 for that matter.

And the same goes for the New Democrats. Friday, former Quebec Liberal Thomas Mulcair gave the clearest signal yet that he intends to run a traditional social-democratic campaign, promising to seize tax benefits from stock-option holders and turn the proceeds over to the poor. In strategic terms this acknowledges the obvious: Stuck at just above 20% in public support, according to aggregated polls tracked by threehundredeight.com, the NDP’s best hope of retaining seats is to make like Robin Hood, as of old.

In other words, each party is targeting traditional supporters, except on the economy, where the Liberals and Tories are seeking the same prize, which is also the largest voting block: the middle class, broadly defined as anyone earning above $44,701, the second-lowest federal tax bracket, up to and including anyone earning less than $138,586, the second-from-highest tax bracket.

Even with Conservatives hyperventilating non-stop about security, the Canadian habit of voting on pocketbook issues is not likely to change, barring an outbreak of total war. It has been reinforced, ironically, by years of Tory messaging. And polls show the government is vulnerable here: An Ipsos Reid survey in February found half the respondents worried about retirement. With the price of crude below $50/barrel and job growth at a 40-year low, that sentiment can be expected to grow.

To check this, Mr. Harper has income-splitting, worth up to $2,000 for a couple with children under 18; the enhanced universal child benefit, which amounts to a $60-a-month increase for children under six and an additional $60/m for children aged 6-17; and a $1,000 rise in the maximum claimable child-care expense deduction. The latter two measures will appeal to many, especially when the money starts flowing in July.

But the biggest-ticket item, income-splitting, is a dud. The C.D. Howe Institute and more recently the Parliamentary Budget Office say it benefits only the wealthiest 15% of families, confirming an earlier criticism of the late Jim Flaherty’s, while costing the Treasury $2-billion a year. This is heaven-sent for the Liberals, who are planning measures that will more broadly benefit middle-income earners. Something to watch: Unlike the NDP, the Grits have not explicitly ruled out tax increases on the wealthy, typically defined as those earning over $150,000 a year.

It boils down to this: Heading into spring, the Finance Minister is under pressure to come up with something juicier than income-splitting, to keep Main Street out of Mr. Trudeau’s clutches. But he has little room to work, thanks to the oil-revenue slide, while still keeping the budget in balance. It’s an intractable problem, the solution to which is not obvious. Small wonder Mr. Oliver has been too busy to attend Question Period lately. A budget date is expected any day.

 

[Edward Campbell]

OK, it is election year so polls are starting to matter ...

iPolitics has published the results of a large Ekos poll:

And

Two things leap out at me:

    1. While the Liberals have chewed into the CPC's support (especially in Atlantic Canada), they have really done a number on the NDP, but;

    2. Even in Quebec the CPC outpolls the Liberals, as they do everywhere except in Atlantic Canada which has 32 of 338 seats. 

Methodology:

This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are March 25-31, 2015. In total, a random sample of 3,901 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

 

[McG]

This will be the CPC's election year budget ...

And according to a Nanos poll, it is still economy that voters are giving the most weight when judging prospective governments.  90% will base thier vote on a party's economic plan, in contrast to only 4% who will base their vote on terrorism.  Clearly, the government knows this and it will spend $7.5 million to advertise the budget in the coming year.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I would be surprised if the Liberals don't do better here in Atlantic Canada.  There is deep mistrust and hatred towards the CPC if what I hear on the talk radio call in sessions and letters to the editor are correct.  You can hear the crickets chirp mostly when it comes to approval for the Harper camp.  I would expect that Peter MacKay will have a hard battle ahead of him this round if he runs once more.  It won't be a shoe in this time.

 

[FSTO]

I would be surprised if the Liberals don't do better here in Atlantic Canada.  There is deep mistrust and hatred towards the CPC if what I hear on the talk radio call in sessions and letters to the editor are correct.  You can hear the crickets chirp mostly when it comes to approval for the Harper camp.  I would expect that Peter MacKay will have a hard battle ahead of him this round if he runs once more.  It won't be a shoe in this time.

Atlantic Canadians are still smarting over Harper's "culture of defeat" comment.
Anyway, the only MP's that matter are the ones from the golden horseshoe and the major cities. The rest of the MP's in the regions are only useful as trained baboons!

 

[Rocky Mountains]

Atlantic Canadians are still smarting over Harper's "culture of defeat" comment.
Anyway, the only MP's that matter are the ones from the golden horseshoe and the major cities. The rest of the MP's in the regions are only useful as trained baboons!

The Liberals can't do much better in Atlantic Canada.  They have almost all the seats.

As a Westerner, the source of the culture of defeat stories are from Newfies, Spuds, Bluenosers, and Herringchokers who come out here to work.  They don't have a lot of respect for their poor cousins back home.  The world is still waiting for the first example of a society become rich through receiving welfare.  Everyone on the entitlement train seems to get buried deeper into the economic mire.

 

[Edward Campbell]

In this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen, Jason Fekete looks at Justin Trudeau's travels and concludes a bit about his election strategy:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/trudeaus-travels-liberal-leader-intensely-focused-on-gta-and-montreal

Trudeau's travels: Liberal leader intensely focused on GTA and Montreal

JASON FEKETE, OTTAWA CITIZEN

Published on: April 5, 2015

The road to victory for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in the upcoming federal election goes through ridings in and around Toronto and Montreal, judging by his travels over the past six months.

Trudeau, a Montreal MP, also made multiple stops and participated in several events in the Vancouver area and southwestern Ontario, other regions with a lot of seats expected to be in play for the federal election scheduled for Oct. 19, 2015.

A review of Trudeau’s travels since the beginning of September, up to March 9, shows that more than 80 per cent of his stops over the past half year were in Ontario and Quebec — with a huge focus on the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along with Montreal and its suburbs.

“Where his (seat) pickups have to come are from the NDP in Toronto, and there’s also a couple of Tory seats that should be in play for him in the 416 (region of Toronto),” said pollster Darrell Bricker, chief executive of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“In Montreal, he’s got to pick up seats from the NDP, because all those anglophone/allophone seats around Montreal were always Liberal seats … they should be low-hanging fruit for him.”

Much like Prime Minister Stephen Harper since the fall, Trudeau has not held any public events in several provinces over the past six months, including most of Atlantic Canada — where the Liberals have a large lead in the polls — or Saskatchewan.

The Liberal leader, who does not face the same demands as the prime minister, held far more public events and travelled to a larger number of ridings in more parts of the country than did Harper.

But as did the prime minister, Trudeau spent a large chunk of his time in seat-rich Ontario, with many of his stops in Toronto and surrounding area.

Trudeau was in the GTA 25 times (for 36 public events) between September and mid-March, good for just over one-third of his more than 70 stops across Canada. He participated in 135 events across the country during those stops, in both his role as a parliamentarian and leader of the Liberal party.

His travels included nine stops in Toronto, four in Mississauga, two each in Richmond Hill and Markham, as well as events in Scarborough and Oakville.

Some of Trudeau’s events in Toronto included a roundtable with Ukrainian community leaders, a celebration for Black History Month, a speech to CARP (a national organization largely representing Canadians age 50-plus), Chinese New Year festivities and the opening ceremonies for the Aga Khan Museum, among several other events.

The Liberal leader also stopped in Whitby four times (for 12 different events) and in Oshawa in the lead-up to and during last fall’s byelection campaign that saw the Grits post a strong second to the Conservatives in the late Jim Flaherty’s old riding.

Thirty new federal seats are being added to the electoral map in the next federal election, including 15 in Ontario, with the majority of those new seats in the GTA. Another six seats will each be added in B.C. and Alberta, with three new seats in Quebec.

The third-party Liberals currently have 36 seats in the House of Commons, including 13 in Ontario and seven in Quebec.

While Harper’s focus in La Belle Province was around the capital of Quebec City, Trudeau spent significant time in Montreal and surrounding communities, where the Liberals are looking to either hold on to or pick up a number of seats.

The MP for the Montreal riding of Papineau, Trudeau stopped in the city eight times for 15 public events, including several in his home constituency. He also participated in events in Montreal-area communities Longueuil, Greenfield Park, Brossard, Mirabel and a handful of others.

He attended a few events in the riding of Mount Royal, currently held by Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Irwin Cotler. Cotler’s decision not to seek re-election means the seat could be up for grabs, and it’s being eyed by the Conservatives.

The Liberal leader also visited Vancouver twice, holding nine different events, as well as a stop in the neighbouring community of Surrey. The party currently holds only two seats in B.C., but Bricker said it’s fertile ground for the Liberals.

The ridings in the core of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver will be key for the Liberals if they’re to win the election, he said.

“Harper is a suburban candidate and Trudeau is a city candidate,” Bricker said. “These guys (Liberals) have to win in the downtown if they’re going to win.”

Trudeau was unavailable for an interview.

Officials in his office wouldn’t comment on the strategy behind where he travels, but said Trudeau has attended more than 1,000 events in more than 140 cities and communities across Canada since becoming Liberal leader in April 2013.

“Mr. Trudeau has made engaging with Canadians his top priority,” Liberal spokesman Cameron Ahmad said in an emailed statement.

The Grits also hold 12 seats in Atlantic Canada — four seats in Newfoundland and Labrador, four in Nova Scotia, three in Prince Edward Island and one in New Brunswick.

Trudeau’s only stop in Atlantic Canada since the fall was in St. John’s, Nfld., in December for an address to the board of trade, a meet-and-greet with Liberal candidate and close friend Seamus O’Regan, and a chat with provincial Liberals.

Multiple polls in recent months have pegged the Liberals with a more than 20-point lead in the four Atlantic Provinces over the Conservatives and NDP.

Southwestern Ontario also was a popular destination for Trudeau, with multiple stops and several events in London, as well as visits to Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Strathroy and Oldcastle.

Trudeau also stopped twice in Winnipeg for nine events in a province where the Liberals currently have one seat, and he did an extended tour of Canada’s North, with stops in Inuvik and Yellowknife, N.W.T., and Iqaluit and Rankin Inlet in Nunavut.

It looks like M. Trudeau is confident of his ability to (nearly) sweep Atlantic Canada (I'm guessing he can get 19 or 20 of the 32 seats there) and that he recognizes that he will have trouble in the West (my guess is that he will campaign, hard, in MB, SK and BC in September and October and my guess is that he can get 10 to 15 seats in the West. But I think that he knows that he must defeat Thomas Mulcair's NDP in ON and QC is he even wants to be opposition leader. My current guesstimate is that he cannot do it, not well enough, anyway, and that he will get 40-45 seats in central Canada for a total of about 75 seats, nationally, about the same as I guess the NDP will get.

(My current guesstimate is:

BQ or other Quebec Nationalists:            8
Conservatives:                                    169
Greens:                                                5
Liberals:                                              75
New Democrats:                                  75
Independents and Others:                      6)

 

[George Wallace]

Is he making a calculated assumption that he does not need to visit the Maritimes and Newfoundland Labrador, or a mistake?