Warning: :deadhorse:
This
commentary by
Michael Adams of Environics, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s
Globe and Mail, allows me to revisit one of my hobby-horses:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080326.wcoadams26/BNStory/specialComment/home
Commentary
The seeds of electoral realignment
The urban-rural divide is overtaking region as a predictor of how Canadians will vote
MICHAEL ADAMS
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
March 26, 2008 at 7:35 AM EDT
Last week's federal by-elections represent the most recent chapter in a narrative that has been unfolding in this country for decades: the divergence of urban and rural Canada. As in the United States, where Democratic districts are overwhelmingly urban and Republican ones overwhelmingly rural, the urban-rural dimension in Canada is overtaking region as a predictor of how people will cast their votes.
In the last federal election, Stephen Harper's Conservatives did not win a single seat in any of Canada's three largest cities. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver belonged to the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois. In last week's by-elections, prominent Liberals sailed to victory in two Toronto ridings while a Tory took a seat in rural Saskatchewan. In Vancouver Quadra, the Conservative candidate came remarkably close to edging out Liberal Joyce Murray, but this outcome speaks more to the departure of a popular Liberal incumbent, Stephen Owen, and to surging Greens than to a strong embrace of the Tories.
It is not surprising that Canada's cities and rural areas vote differently; they are very different places. The 2006 census reveals significant demographic disparities between people living in our 33 census metropolitan areas (CMAs), places with 100,000 people or more and now home to 80 per cent of Canadians, and those living elsewhere in the country.
To begin with, urban Canadians are younger. More than a third of urban dwellers (35.7 per cent) are between 20 and 44. In rural areas, just over a quarter (27.7 per cent) fall into this age group. With fewer residents in the prime of adulthood, rural areas have higher proportions of their labour markets made up of people in their late 50s and early 60s - on the brink of retirement.
Much of the youth and vitality of Canada's cities comes from the steady inflow of immigrants from elsewhere (the average age of immigrants to Canada is 30). Seven in 10 newcomers settle in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal. The rest head for other urban areas, increasingly booming Western cities such as Calgary. According to Statistics Canada, only 3 per cent of newcomers who arrived between 2001 and 2006 settled in rural areas.
Immigrants, of course, are most often drawn by the promise of economic opportunity - and incomes in urban and rural Canada tell them where to go. In federal electoral ridings within CMAs, the average household income is nearly $79,000. In ridings outside CMAs, incomes are just over $63,000.
The differences between urban and rural Canada do not stop at demography: Strong psychographic differences emerge when we examine the social values of Canadians. Not surprisingly, given the concentration of immigrants in cities, urban Canadians are more likely to report a sense of global citizenship and feelings of connectedness with people and events in other countries. By contrast, rural Canadians tend to identify more strongly with their own regions.
Urban Canadians register greater comfort with change and complexity, reporting that, when they think about the changes happening around them, they see more opportunities than threats. They say they love seizing on new technologies, they enjoy mixing with people of different backgrounds, and they think diversity - whether in family models or ethnocultural backgrounds - enriches society.
Rural Canadians say they are not so sure about all this change: They are less eager to buy and learn about new technology. They express greater wariness of social changes, whether related to immigration or growing sexual permissiveness. They are more likely than other Canadians to say that religion is an important part of their life, that they prize family bonds above all else, and that they are heavily involved in their local communities.
These divergent attitudes are surely reinforced by the economic outlooks in each milieu: People in cities generally have a lot to look forward to, situated as they are in places that are relatively vibrant both economically and culturally.
Some rural Canadians are living idyllic existences in intimate small towns, but many are clinging to relatively isolated communities where economic opportunity seems to be waning and morale is going with it. Intermittent resource booms like those in Newfoundland and Alberta will keep spirits up in some pockets, but many of the family farms and local resource jobs and manufacturing plants that once yielded small-town self-sufficiency are fading away.
If current trends continue, these two Canadas will be even more different in 2017 (our 150th birthday) than they are today. One result of this divergence will be growing pressure for electoral reform that would allow the two Canadas to be more accurately represented in federal politics. Currently, while 80 per cent of Canadians live in CMAs, only 68 per cent of federal ridings fall within CMAs. Sparsely populated rural ridings - such as Prince Edward Island's Egmont (population: 35,747) or Labrador (26,928) - send MPs to Ottawa who have no less voice or influence than ridings with many times the population.
This arrangement might have made sense when Canada was a rural country and a riding meant a riding - as in a candidate riding on horseback to meet constituents. In a Canada where four out of five people live in densely populated urban constituencies, it makes much less sense. And with municipal budget crises and other jurisdictional irritants, it may not be long before city dwellers join their politicians and begin to cry foul.
It used to be difficult for urbanites to push for more electoral influence because the struggle would often be cast as rich city folk who already hold too much power trying to steal whatever meagre influence good country people exerted. Today, though, with increasing proportions of Canada's cities made up of immigrants, the narrative might be very different: Should eighth-generation pure laine WASPS in rural ridings hold more sway than immigrant citizens struggling to build new lives in cities? It almost has the whiff of a Charter of Rights case about it.
Michael Adams, president of the Environics group of companies, is also the author of "Unlikely Utopia: The Surprising Triumph of Canadian Pluralism."
Off the top I need to reiterate that I am a card-carrying Conservative and a regular financial contributor to my party and I understand that what I propose will
not serve the partisan best interests of my party – but it will serve democracy and Canada, so we Conservatives should be behind it, 75% of us anyway.
We must appreciate that the central thesis of democracy is:
government with the consent of the governed. We, in Canada, use periodic elections to measure that consent.
Central to the idea of the “consent of the governed” is equality – we, all citizens, should be equal when we enter the voting booth; my vote ought not to be worth more than yours just because I am richer or better educated or white or because I served in the military. Equally yours ought not to be worth more than mine just because you vote in the riding of Egmont while I vote in Ottawa Centre. We do a pretty good job of ensuring that wealthy white males with medals do not get greater electoral
authority than poor women of colour but we fail, miserably, as democrats, at ensuring that a vote in Ottawa Centre is worth as much as a vote in Egmont.
The first problem is Constitutional.
The Constitution (1867) requires (in §51/51.A) that seats in the HoC are allocated on a
’rep-by-pop’ basis
except that no province, not even PEI, may have fewer MPs than it has senators and (§24) PEI gets four senators so, no matter how small its population, it must have four MPs. Amending this part requires
unanimous approval by the Parliament of Canada and all provincial legislatures (see:
Constitution (1982) §42). Thus, absent a full blown
Constitutional congress – the kind that would, probably, make us a Westminster style federal
republic (à la India or Germany) with only, say, five provinces (BC, Canada West), Ontario, Québec, Atlantic Canada) and some territories, we are going to remain in a situation where PEI gets four MPs – about
one per 34,500 residents (of all ages and regardless of citizenship).
Using that StatsCan data and their
projections for the future and 1:37,500 and 1:42,500 factors (for the current situation and the 2025 situation, respectively) we can conclude that, if equality matters, seat distributions should be:
Current Pop ('000s)/
Seats 2025 Pop ('000s)/
Seats
Canada 32,976.000/
881 37872.6/
892
Newfoundland 506.3/
14 522.7/
12
and Labrador
Prince Edward 138.6/
4 149.6/
4
Island
Nova Scotia 934.1/
25 997/
23
New Brunswick 749.8/
20 788.3/
19
Quebec 7,700.80/
205 8273.7/
195
Ontario 12,803.90/
341 15210.5/
358
Manitoba 1,186.70/
32 1306.9/
31
Saskatchewan 996.9/
27 980.9/
23
Alberta 3,474.00/
93 3789.5/
89
British Columbia 4,380.30
117 5732.7/
135
Yukon Territory 31
1 36.9/
1
Northwest 42.6
1 53.3/
1
Territories
Nunavut 30.1/
1 30.8/
1
The first and most obvious objection is:
We don’t need more politicians!
There is a simple work around for that, one which could be managed by parliamentary
convention rather than Constitutional change: two classes of Mps with two workloads. All MPs would be elected as
part time members – likely to serve in Ottawa for about 10 working days (two one week session) in each of three parliamentary seasons (mostly to vote on bills). All MPs would have an appropriate, but generous,
part time salary of, say, $1,500.00/’working’ day ($45,000/year) plus, say, $500.00/day ($15,000/year) for hotels, meals and incidentals in Ottawa (less for local members) and appropriate (business class) travel allowances for three or four round trips/year. Some members would earn as much as $75,000/year – a few (from Ottawa) would get just $50,000. The members themselves, in caucus, would elect about 25% of their membership to be
permanent MPs – these 225 or so members (far fewer than the 308 we have today) would be required to spend more than 150 days/year in Ottawa and would serve on committees, debate in the HoC, etc. They would get salaries at least as generous as we see today.
The alternative is to continue with a
retarded democracy – one which, intentionally, Constitutionally, enshrines
inequality as a fundamental value. If we are going to discriminate on the basis of
provinciality why not on the basis of education, or land ownership or gender? Why not, indeed, on the basis of race or creed?