Failing Islamic States - 2011

[Redeye]

I have the same sentiment (and share Technoviking's).

I'm actually eavesdropping on a coversation right now between an Egyptian expat and a colleague, very interesting.  He sounds concerned about what the implications of removing Mubarak, and what could happen.  He just said, "Obama is being stupid" siding with the protestors. However, he then went on to suggest that it's his public moves that are stupid, but that he's not a stupid man and is likely working behind the scenes to try to stabilize things.

The problem as I see it - and as this gentleman (who, it turns out, is here on vacation and now looking to apply to immigrate - is that democracy as we know it is a foreign concept to most of the world, and isn't something that can be exported.  You can't just expect it to spontaneously appear somewhere it hasn't evovled over the years.  While Mubarak may be a corrupt autocrat, he's provided a measure of stability and constancy, and kept the influence of Islamists at bay.  That said, the Muslim Brotherhood are not fundamentalists in the Al Qaeda or Iranian-style theocracy sense of the term, they're much more moderate, but still, the potential for them being the strong ones emerging from the crisis is there, it's real, and it's not really in anyone's interest.

What the gentleman really stressed was that Egypt's problems are rooted mainly in economics, and a young, often well educated population that hasn't got jobs or good future prospects.  If some way, he suggested, could be worked out for Mubarak to stay (or at least a new leader to emerge that's reasonably similar, with some decent reforms), then the focus must be on the economy and that might turn things around.  It sounds like quite a challenge.  I hope that Western leaders are quietly working at this.  I understand why they would want to appear low-key though, for fear of a situation like the hatred of the Western-installed Shah Reza Pahlavi of Iran.

It's going to be an interesting situation to watch unfold.

In my limited experience WRT international affairs,  I do not think the state of Egypt will be anymore demcratic than that of North Korea once the current government is ousted.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and I'd be dollars to donuts that the next government will be far more restrictive that the government of Mubarak. Or am I right out to lunch?

 

[vonGarvin]

I'm also concerned that what we are seeing isn't the "whole truth", as it were.  We all know that journalists are in a private venture, with a view to not only inform, but to make money.  "If it bleeds, it leads", and Egypt, at least parts of it, are bleeding. 

Interestingly enough, tonight on my drive home, the CBC news not only talked about the demonstrations, etc, but also about other parts of Cairo.  The journalist mentioned that it was like any other day in that city: traffic jams, people going to and fro, etc.  And one shop keeper who was interviewed mused that "Mubarek is our president, and will remain our president".

As with reporting that we see from Afghanistan, for example, we who have been there know that there is a ground truth over there, and the reported truth.  Same with anyone who happened to be in Toronto last summer.  A foreign observer may have thought that the whole city was ready to explode, when it wasn't, when in fact most Torontonians were just going about their business.  Is that the case in Cairo?  I don't know.

I just felt a chill when some of our politicians here, from afar, were arrogant enough to tell Mubarek what to do.  I think the best to do is to STFU, maybe proclaim such niceties as "be peaceful, let's all get along, etc", but we who profess democracy know better than to listen to the loudest.



Oh, wait, I said that last part with a straight face.....

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Airport Fees

First Canadian flight leaves Egypt after airport 'fee'

31/01/2011 3:23:44 PM
CTV.ca News Staff

LINK


About 200 Canadians are in the first group to have escaped the chaos in Egypt in a plane chartered by the Canadian government. But before they could board in Cairo, they were asked to pay the airport a "fee," CTV News has learned.

CTV's National Affairs correspondent Lisa LaFlamme, who travelled into Cairo with the first Air Canada Boeing 777, says the scene when they arrived was chaotic. Passengers were processed slowly through security, then held and told they could not go through the glass doors to board the bus that would take them across the tarmac to the plane.

"Finally, an Egyptian airport person walked around, literally with a hat, asking for American dollars, saying it would be really beneficial for them to thank the people who worked so hard to help them leave the country," LaFlamme told CTV News Channel Monday afternoon.

The passengers put as much U.S. cash as they had into the hat.

"It was not enough money, we are told. So someone got on a loudspeaker and said, ‘We need to raise US$2,000 in order to open the glass doors and let you on that bus'," LaFlamme reported.

"People were stunned, as you can imagine."

LaFlamme says one person came forward and put in the lion's share of the $2,000. The passengers were then allowed on the plane.

"For the people here, having been through the city, there have been other experiences of bribes; it's not that unusual, they call it baksheesh. But certainly under the guise of an airlift out of the country, it was a very unusual experience," LaFlamme said.

Canadian officials have contacted the Egyptian ambassador in Ottawa to raise concerns about the fee.

The plane, carrying 206 passengers, took off Monday for Frankfurt, Germany, where passengers will have to find their own way back to Canada on their own.

Another plane that will airlift out more Canadians is expected to arrive in Egypt later Monday.

The second plane will be chartered through SkyLink Travel, and is scheduled to arrive in Cairo from Amman, Jordan, at 5 p.m. on Jan. 31. It will then take off at 7 p.m., destined for Frankfurt, via Amman.

Further flights in coming days would be headed to London and Paris, in addition to Frankfurt, Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon told reporters.

More than 6,000 Canadians are believed to be in Egypt, which is in the midst of massive street protests against autocratic President Hosni Mubarak.

Cannon said priority for the evacuation flights will be given to people holding a Canadian passport and their immediate family members, defined as a spouse and children.

Canadians will be required to sign a contract committing to pay their share of the flight cost from Egypt to Europe before they are allowed to board. Passengers will also be required to purchase their own tickets to leave Europe.

In a statement Monday morning, Cannon said the Canadian government is looking into options for evacuating citizens from cities other than Cairo. In the meantime, for safety reasons, those outside of Cairo should stay where they are, Cannon said.

Canadians in Egypt hoping to reserve a spot on one of the flights should call the embassy in Cairo at 20 (2) 2791-8700, or call the Foreign Affairs emergency response centre in Ottawa collect at 613-996-8885, or send an email to SOS@international.gc.ca.

On Sunday, Cannon said to date no Canadians are known to have been injured or killed, but Ottawa is recommending that Canadians leave the country.

Just a little bit of graft.  :-\

 

[57Chevy]

Even though Egypt is not an oil producer, the Egyptian uprising will have an impact on global energy prices.

Markets fear higher oil prices
Brent crude topped $101 (U.S.) a barrel today as the uprising in Egypt gathered force, sparking fears of shipping disruptions in the crucial Suez Canal
In Egypt, a popular uprising. For oil, an unpopular price

The canal, and an adjacent pipeline, continued to operate normally, but speculation mounted nonetheless, also pushing up the price of West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark.

"The political tension in the Middle East is far from over, and as such the market for oil will be particularly sensitive and subject to upside surges," said Scotia Capital currency strategist Sacha Tihanyi.

The Suez Canal runs for almost 200 kilometres, and is estimated to have brought Egypt almost $5-billion in revenue last year, according to Reuters. A shutdown of the canal would mean about an extra 10 days for Mideast oil to get to the United States, and 18 days to northern Europe, The Wall Street Journal says.

Millions of barrels of crude a day pass through the canal, representing an estimated 3 per cent of global output.

article continues at link...
                                    (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

[Jed]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.


Just a little bit of graft.  :-\

This happened to me when I went through the Cairo Airport on the way to Damascus in July 2001. They drove me around on a bus then demanded some Bacsheesh to drop me off at the plane. When I got to the plane some different dudes asked for more to load my bags on the aircraft. I told them to take a hike the second time. I didn't think I would see my luggage again but it did eventually get through.

 

[FoverF]

I wonder how big of a cut Air Canada got from that money?

After all, they probably didn't get their booking fee, their handling charge, their check-in fees, etc  >

 

[Nfld Sapper]

I wonder how big of a cut Air Canada got from that money?

After all, they probably didn't get their booking fee, their handling charge, their check-in fees, etc  >

I would guess zero as they don't normally fly to Egypt.....

 

[George Wallace]

A rather interesting media report.  A question of TRUST that I don't even think the citizens of Canada have.  We shall see where this one goes:
Faith in the Armed Forces


Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Egypt's army says it won't fire on protesters


31/01/2011 6:56:23 PM
CTV.ca News Staff

LINK


The Egyptian army announced on Monday it would not fire on the tens of thousands of protesters calling for President Hosni Mubarak to step down.

An army spokesperson made the announcement on state TV saying, "freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody."

Egypt's government is dominated by former military officers, but the opposition parties are not considering the military's announcement a victory.

Egypt's new vice president, Omar Suleiman, also said that he had been authorized to talk to the opposition about political reform but did not offer details.

Protests continued as Mubarak brought in a new government Monday, as a determined coalition of opposition groups planned a million-person march to ratchet up the pressure on his regime.

Mubarak announced the change in government on state television on Monday afternoon.

The 82-year-old Egyptian leader dumped several prominent businessmen from his cabinet, as well as interior minister Habib el-Adly, who was widely despised for the brutal tactics used by the security forces under his control. Culture Minister Farouq Hosni was also let go.

Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and the country's defence minister, Hussein Tantawi, kept their posts in the hastily announced shakeup. Zahi Hawass, a well-known Egyptian archaeologist was given the new posting of state minister for antiquities.

The announcement of a new government came on the seventh day of protests in Egypt, where Mubarak is blamed for widespread poverty, inflation and various abuses during his 30 years in power.

Dozens of people have died during the protests and thousands have been injured.

A coalition of opposition groups is currently organizing a massive march from Tahrir Square, a plaza in downtown Cairo that has become the focal point of the anti-government protests. The goal is to have one million Egyptians take part in the march that is scheduled for Tuesday.

Opposition groups say they are also in the midst of discussions to determine their strategy for pushing Mubarak from office. Their desire is for Mubarak to step down by Friday.

Mohamed ElBaradei -- the former head of the UN nuclear watchdog and a Nobel Peace laureate -- may become the lead spokesperson for the many thousands of protesters in Cairo.

CNN correspondent Fred Pleitgen told CTV News Channel there were thousands of protesters in Tahrir Square on Monday, as they continued their protests against the Mubarak regime.

Inside Cairo, banks, schools and the stock market remain closed Monday, as are government offices and most private businesses. Garbage collectors and police could be seen on the streets and Cairo subway stations reopened are being closed overnight.

CTV's Middle East Bureau Chief Martin Seemungal said the Egyptian army was directing traffic in Cairo throughout the morning, and was trying to keep the peace in Tahrir Square.

There have been rumours that Egyptian police could return to the streets at any time, but Seemungal said they have made few appearances in Cairo on Monday.

"We are seeing traffic police who have come back in … and so far the interface between the people, the public and the police seems to be good," Seemungal reported to CTV's Canada AM from Cairo on Monday.

"But again, we know that on Friday there was tremendous friction between the riot police and the people, so we're still waiting to see if they are deployed."

At the international airport in Cairo, thousands of foreigners tried to book flights out of Egypt. Canada was among the many governments working to get planes into Cairo so that their citizens could fly out.

With files from The Associated Press

LINK

 

[57Chevy]

From wikipedia:
Egypt's new vice president: Omar Suleiman

Political role and accession to the vice presidencySuleiman is seen as a very close and trusted ally of President Mubarak, sharing many of his views on key issues such as Iran, Egyptian relations with Israel and the United States, and treatment of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although he was a military man who by law is not a member of Mubarak's National Democratic Party, he preferred suits to military uniforms and is seen as a major link between Egyptian political and military elites. Due to his role in the regional political scene and the lack of an alternative candidate acceptable to Hosni Mubarak, some have speculated that Suleiman will succeed Mubarak as President. In particular, he is seen as the choice of the Egyptian military establishment. On January 29, 2011, he was named Vice President of Egypt during the civil unrest, ending a vacancy in the position that lasted almost 30 years.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Foreign Ministerretained) Ahmed Aboul Gheit
started his career as Third Secretary in the Embassy of Cyprus, and moved into being the First Secretary for Egypt's Ambassador in the United Nation, Political Consultant in the Egyptian Embassy in Russia in 1984, and moved into being the Ambassador of Egypt in Rome, Macedonia and San Marino, and by 1999 he was the head of Egypt's permanent delegation in the United Nations.

Regarding the Pope Benedict XVI Islam controversy, he said "this was a very unfortunate statement and it is a statement that shows that there is a lack of understanding of real Islam. And because of this we are hopeful that such statements and such positions would not be stated in order to not allow tension and distrust and recriminations to brew between the Muslim as well as the west."

Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit opened Sunday, December 26, 2010, the first Egyptian consulate outside Baghdad in the northern city of Irbil in a one-day visit to Iraq, where he also held talks with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.

In a statement to the Qatari newspaper Al-Sharq, Abul-Gheit pointed out that Egypt is the second biggest African economic power with the most powerful army in Africa and is also the most effective diplomatic player in the continent. Consequently, no African country could isolate Egypt from the continent.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Defence ministerretained) Hussein Tantawi
is a Field Marshal and the outgoing Egyptian minister of defense and military production and commander-in-chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces.

Tantawi received his commission on 1 April 1956 serving in the infantry, and he has participated in the wars of 1956, 1967, and 1973. He has held various commands and been assigned as military attaché to Pakistan. Tantawi became minister of defense and military production and commander-in-chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces in 1991 following the dismissal of Lt. General Yousef Sabry Abo Taleb, becoming the first Egyptian since 1989 with the rank of Field Marshal. In that period, he also participated in the First Gulf War on the coalition side.
Tantawi is being seen as a possible contender for the Egyptian presidency.
Among the commands Tantawi has had, are Commander of the Presidential Guard and Chief of the Operations Authority of the Armed Forces.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
The new posting of State Minister for Antiquities: Zahi Hawass
Hawass has appeared on television specials on channels such as the National Geographic Channel, The History Channel and Discovery Channel.

Return of artifacts to Egypt
In July 2003, the Egyptians requested the return of the Rosetta Stone from the British Museum. Hawass, as secretary general of the Supreme Council of Antiquities in Cairo, told the press, "If the British want to be remembered, if they want to restore their reputation, they should volunteer to return the Rosetta Stone because it is the icon of our Egyptian identity." Referring to antiquities at the British Museum, Hawass said “These are Egyptian monuments. I will make life miserable for anyone who keeps them.” Britain has refused to return them.

Statements about Jews
Hawass has been a long-standing opponent of normalized relations between Israel and Egypt.

In January 2009, Hawass wrote in Al-Sharq Al-Awsat that "The concept of killing women, children and elderly people... seems to run in the blood of the Jews of Palestine" and that "the only thing that the Jews have learned from history is methods of tyranny and torment - so much so that they have become artists in this field." He explained that he was not referring to the Jews' "[original] faith" but rather "the faith that they forged and contaminated with their poison, which is aimed against all of mankind."
In an interview on Egyptian television in April 2009, Hawass stated that "although Jews are few in number, they control the entire world" and commented on the "control they have" of the American economy and the media. He later clarified that he was using rhetoric to explain political fragmentation among the Arabs and that he does not believe in a "Jewish conspiracy to control the world".
Criticism[/color]
Hawass has been widely accused of domineering behaviour, forbidding archaeologists to announce their own findings, and courting the media for his own gain after they were denied access to archaeological sites because, according to Hawass, they were too amateurish. Others however, including several Egyptologists, have said in interviews that most of what Hawass has done for the field was long overdue. Hawass has typically ignored or dismissed his critics, and when asked about it, he indicated that what he does is for the sake of Egypt and the preservation of its antiquities. Hawass has instituted a systematic program for the preservation and restoration of historical monuments, while training Egyptians to improve their expertise on methods of excavation, retrieval and preservation.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
                                    (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

edited for color troubles  ;D

 

[George Wallace]

I know you took all that from Wikipedia, but it is fairly much unintelligible.  For instance, what the frack is this:

Return of artifacts to Egypt
Zahi Hawass displays a Ptolemaic statue discovered at Taposiris Magna on 8 May 2010 Hawass is currently spearheading a movement to return many prominent unique and/or irregularly taken Ancient Egyptian artifacts, such as the Rosetta Stone, the bust of Nefertiti, the Dendera zodiac ceiling painting from the Dendera Temple, the bust of Ankhhaf (the architect of the Khafra Pyramid), the faces of Amenhotep III's tomb at the Louvre Museum, the Luxor Temple's obelisk at the Place de la Concorde and the statue of Hemiunu, nephew of the Pharaoh Khufu, builder of the largest pyramid, to Egypt from collections in various other countries.....

That is just horrid use of the English language.

 

[57Chevy]

I think the picture from the wiki site got slipped in there  ;D sorry about that.

 

[George Wallace]

I think the picture from the wiki site got slipped in there  ;D sorry about that.

No.  It is just the way that their topics are formated and the way they show up on this site when copied over.......hard on the eyes and not really that easy to read. 

 

[57Chevy]

from article:
Canadian citizens in Egypt wishing to book a flight out of the country are now asked to contact the Canadian Embassy in Cairo at 20 (2) 2791-8700 or the Foreign Affairs Emergency Operations Centre at 613-996-8885 or 613-943-1055. The government has also increased the number of staff at the call centres.
                                                              ____________________

Canada should take tougher stand on Egypt unrest: Opposition
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper is under pressure to take a stronger stand against his Egyptian counterpart in the wake of massive anti-government protests in the streets of Cairo that have left about 125 people dead and prompted several countries, including Canada, to airlift their citizens out of harm’s way.

The first legislative session of the year kicked off Monday with questions about Canada’s approach to the crisis in Egypt, with Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff demanding to know whether the Conservatives are “speaking up” for democratic values, freedom of assembly and freedom of speech.

NDP leader Jack Layton later described Canada’s approach to the situation in Egypt as “tepid.”

“We’d like to see the government of Canada be more active in assisting in a peaceful transition to democracy there, make sure that elections are conducted properly and fairly,” he said. “We’ve been disappointed in the lack of enthusiasm in the government’s response to date.”

article continues....
                                    (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

No.  It is just the way that their topics are formated and the way they show up on this site when copied over.......hard on the eyes and not really that easy to read.

Yes you are quite right.
I have noticed that sometimes when copying an article it will carry over an advertisement
or some other unwanted doodad and end up in the middle of it all.

 

[Old Sweat]

This article from the Global Security Org newsletter is reproduced under the Fair Dealing Provisions of the Copyright act.

Muslim Brotherhood: Radical Islamists Or Reluctant Democrats?
January 31, 2011

By Robert Tait

For more than 30 years, the specter of the Iranian Revolution, with the overthrow of a strategically vital and friendly government by fundamentalist Islamists, has stalked Western policymakers on the Middle East.

Now, the dark fear of a calamitous repetition has been brought resoundingly to life by the turmoil gripping Egypt.

In place of the pro-Khomeini forces that ushered in the rule of the theocratic mullahs in 1979 Iran, in today's Egypt we have the Muslim Brotherhood -- at least in the world view expressed by some Western leaders.

Even The Name Strikes Fear

The very name -- redolent in liberal minds of an intolerant, unbending brand of religious authoritarianism -- seems to strike dread in their hearts.

Amid temporizing calls for an "orderly transition" from the autocratic -- and pro-Western -- regime of President Hosni Mubarak, U.S. officials have indicated that President Barack Obama harbors misgivings that any new government might be dominated by the Brotherhood or other Islamist forces.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague voiced that concern bluntly on January 30 when he said: "Certainly we would not want to see a government based on the Islamic Brotherhood."

Even actor Omar Sharif, Egypt's most famous international celebrity and co-star of David Lean's epic 1962 film "Laurence Of Arabia," displayed disquiet over the future while calling on Mubarak to resign. "I don't want the Muslim Brotherhood. They were trapped and now are starting to come out," Sharif told Reuters. "They have 20 percent of the population," he added, alluding to the Brotherhood's most recent electoral showing, "and it's frightening for me."

Fears have been further fueled by reports that hundreds of jailed Brotherhood members were among thousands of prisoners who escaped during a mass breakout from four Egyptian prisons over the weekend. They included 34 of the organization's leading figures, arrested in a crackdown by the Mubarak regime as it tried to quell last week’s mass protests.

Founded In The 1920s

It is quite a bogeyman status for what is Egypt's oldest and biggest Islamist organization. Founded in the 1920s by Hassan al-Banna initially to spread Islamic morals and good works, the group later became embroiled in the fight to end British colonial control and drive Western influence out of Egypt. Defined by its slogan, "Islam Is The Solution," its expressed aim is to create a state based on Shari'a law.

Yet, said Fawaz Gerges, the director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, the Brotherhood's radical history should not blind Western policymakers to the fact that it has evolved into a pragmatic modern force. He said he believes the group's main objective is to expel Mubarak -- who has exploited international and domestic fears of its goals to brutally suppress membership.

"The Muslim Brotherhood wants to get rid of Mubarak. Also, the Brotherhood wants to play a key role in the political process, no doubt about it,” Gerges said. “But the Muslim Brotherhood has made it very clear; they are not equipped; they are not ready to govern Egypt, so the question is not whether [the] Muslim Brotherhood wants to seize power.”

Accepting El-Baradei ...

As evidence of the Brotherhood's new realism, commentators point to its acceptance of the Nobel laureate and former International Atomic Energy Agency chief, Muhammad El-Baradei, a conspicuously secular individual, as an opposition figurehead to lead negotiations for Mubarak's removal. The Brotherhood’s leaders have adopted a deliberately low profile and avoided playing a leadership role in the upheaval, analysts say.

Maha Azzam, an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based Chatham House think tank, said the organization has taken a moderate reformist line both before and during the current protests:

"The stance of the Muslim Brotherhood has been and is at the moment one of a call for political reform and an inclusive political order that includes all political parties,” Azzam said. “You need to remember also that when El-Baradei was calling for signatures for his Facebook [page] calling for reforms, the Muslim Brotherhood helped him collect those signatures. So there are common interests and I think at this stage, they are willing to work together to bring down the regime."

That tone of reason and compromise is stressed by Mohammed Habib, a former deputy leader of the Brotherhood, who rejected suggestions that the Brotherhood’s aim is to create an Islamic theocracy based on Iran.

"No, of course [not],” Habib said. “We want a democratic government based on genuine political plurality and peaceful circulation of power -- a government which considers the people as the source of power and authority. We believe in separation between, judicial, legislative, and administrative institutions in [the] state."

Relations with the U.S., he said, should remain friendly as long as they are "based on mutual respect and equality, which results in the welfare, peace, and security of both nations."

... But Not Yet As The Face Of New Egypt

Yet, just as principles can be open to compromise, so too does pragmatism have its limits. While the Brotherhood is happy to recognize the liberal El-Baradei as a de facto opposition leader, it is much less certain about him as the long-term face of the new Egypt.

Asked by RFE/RL if the group was supporting El-Baradei as Egypt's next president, Habib pointedly stopped short:

"No. We are of course against the personalization of the issue that way,” he said. “There must be a transition government, a government of salvation. There is no observation against El-Baradei being a member of that government. But as the demonstrators demand, before establishing such a government, the president should resign."

Other Brotherhood figures have dismissed Western fears of an Islamic state. Kamel el-Helbawy, another of the group's senior figures, told Reuters that Egypt was entering a "new era of freedom and democracy." "That's more important than declaring that a 'new Islamist era is dawning,' because I know Islamists would not be able to rule Egypt alone," he said. "We should and would cooperate -- Muslims, leftists, communists, socialists, secularists."

Whither Camp David?

The elephant in the room for Western leaders is the Brotherhood's stance on the 1979 Camp David peace accords with Israel, the issue that cost Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat, his life to an Islamist assassin. The movement has said it would put the matter to a referendum if it took power.

Habib, perhaps reflecting the Brotherhood's acceptance that it is unlikely to be governing alone, suggested the matter should be decided by a freely elected parliament:

"This is an issue in which any government should return to the legislative institutions that elected by people in free, fair, and transparent elections," he said.

So far, so democratic. Yet inexact as the parallels between Egypt today and Iran of the 1970s may be, Western politicians will be mindful that the Iranian Islamic republic was heralded by democratic means -- in the form of a popular referendum vote. Moderate words alone are unlikely to exorcize the ghosts haunting the West.

Radio Free Afghanistan's Sultan Sarwar contributed to this report



Source: http://origin.rferl.org/content/muslim_brotherhood_feature/2293237.html

Copyright (c) 2011. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Spirit of Cairo


Tunisia protests against Ben Ali left 200 dead, says UN
1 February 2011 Last updated at 07:31 ET
BBC

LINK


At least 219 people died during the protests that toppled Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali last month, a UN team has said.

Team leader Bacre Waly Ndiaye said this figure included 72 people who died during prison riots.

The government previously said that 78 people had died, although the opposition said the figure was higher.

Mr Ndiaye was speaking at the end of a week-long human rights team investigation into the unrest.

He added that the figure was not final and the UN would continue its investigations.

After a month of protests, Mr Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia.

A unity government has been sworn in but some protests continue, by demonstrators who want anyone linked to the former regime to leave power.

Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi has promised elections within six months.

The toppling of Mr Ben Ali after 23 years in power helped inspire the current anti-government protests in Egypt.

On Monday, the European Union announced it had frozen the assets of the former leader and his wife.

More on LINK

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Huge protests fan Egypt unrest
1 February 2011 Last updated at 09:17 ET
BBC

LINK

The BBC's John Simpson describes the scene at Tahrir Square


Egyptian protesters are holding huge rallies in Cairo and other cities as they step up their efforts to force President Hosni Mubarak from power.

Organisers say they hope one million will come on to the streets of the capital in what is expected to be the biggest demonstration yet.

The atmosphere has been festive, with protesters singing and chanting.

Protest leaders, including Mohamed ElBaradei, have called on Mr Mubarak to step down by Friday at the latest.

"They hope that this will end today or Friday at the latest, and they called the coming Friday 'the Friday of departure', but I hope that President Mubarak will take heed before then and leave the country after 30 years of rule and give the people a chance, and I don't expect that he wants to see more blood," Mr ElBaradei told al-Arabiya TV.

Festive atmosphere

BBC correspondents in Cairo's Tahrir Square say the crowds there are already much bigger than on the previous seven days of protests.

Journalists at the scene estimated that hundreds of thousands of people - men, women and children from a cross-section of Egyptian society - have gathered, although in the absence of official estimates, there is no way of finding out the exact numbers.

Egypt's powerful army has vowed it will not use force against the protesters.

Many carried placards and banners daubed with anti-Mubarak slogans. Earlier, crowds cheered as an effigy of the president was hung from a set of traffic lights in the square.

Meanwhile, new Vice-President Omar Suleiman said he would hold cross-party talks on constitutional reform.

Mr Mubarak reshuffled his cabinet on Monday to try to head off the protests, replacing the widely despised Interior Minister Habib al-Adly.

But analysts say the army's statement has been a major blow for President Mubarak, and appears to have encouraged protesters, who are flocking to central Cairo in their thousands.

The feeling that change is coming in Egypt is getting stronger, says the BBC's Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen in Cairo. Too much has happened too quickly to go back to the way things were before, he says.

The UN human rights chief, Navi Pillay, says 300 people may been killed across the country since the protests began a week ago. They followed an internet campaign and were partly inspired by the ousting of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia last month.

Egypt has since cut off the internet in the country and text messaging services have been disrupted.

Google announced late on Monday that it was operating a special service to allow people in Egypt to send Twitter messages by dialling a phone number and leaving a voicemail.

Meanwhile as tensions mounted, the US state department announced it had ordered all non-emergency US embassy and government personnel to leave Egypt.

'We're not leaving'

In Egypt's second biggest city, Alexandria, thousands of people have gathered to call for the president to step down.

Thousands more were out in the streets in Suez, and the Associated Press news agency reported protests in Mansoura, north of Cairo, and the southern cities of Assiut and Luxor.

With limited bus, train and internal flight services, access to the capital has been restricted.

Unnamed security officials were reported as saying all roads and public transportation to Cairo had been shut down.

Some protesters camped out in Tahrir Square on Monday night, saying they would stay there until Mr Mubarak's 30-year rule ended.

One demonstrator, Tarek Shalabi, told the BBC that groups were camped out in tents or sleeping out in the square, and described the atmosphere as "overwhelming".

"We're here because we want to make a statement. We're not going until Mubarak steps down," he said.

He said a stage had been set up where people could go up and make speeches, read out poetry or sing or chant political slogans.

Meanwhile, crowds of pro-Mubarak demonstrators held counter-protests elsewhere in the capital, raising fears of possible confrontations between the different groups.

'Legitimate'

On Monday, the Egyptian army said it respected the "legitimate rights of the people".

Mubarak supporters have been holding counter-demonstrations in the Egyptian capital
In its statement, carried on Egyptian media, the military said: "To the great people of Egypt, your armed forces, acknowledging the legitimate rights of the people... have not and will not use force against the Egyptian people."

Correspondents say the announcement is absolutely critical because it takes away a huge measure of uncertainty from the mind of any potential demonstrator.

A coalition of political opposition groups - incorporating the Muslim Brotherhood, political parties such as that led by Mr ElBaradei, and other prominent figures - has reportedly met, and told the Egyptian government that it will begin talks on its demands only after Mr Mubarak has stood down.

Meanwhile, the US has despatched a special envoy to Cairo, former ambassador to Egypt Frank Wisner.

Concerns have also grown about the economy, as global oil prices on Monday topped $100 (£62) a barrel amid fears over the ongoing unrest.


At the scene
Wyre Davies
BBC News, Alexandria
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The great strength of this popular uprising is that it is happening across Egypt.

Hundreds of thousands of people, young and old, men and women of all faiths are taking to the streets.

In the northern city of Alexandria the main focus was the famous Ibrahim Mosque in the centre of this historical coastal city.

Tens of thousands descended on the square. They climbed on roofs and the tops of cars and in trees to get a vantage point, all calling for the removal of Hosni Mubarak.

I saw one effigy of the president being hanged and another man threw shoes at it. Other people carried aloft a coffin representing the end of the Mubarak regime.

These are scenes that would have been unthinkable only days ago in such an authoritarian country.

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[The Bread Guy]

Shared in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright  Act.

Egypt

Egypt's Islamists say no talks till Mubarak goes
Reuters,Tue Feb 1, 2011 6:48am EST
Article link

A coalition of opposition groups have told the Egyptian government that they will only begin talks on a transition to democracy once beleaguered President Hosni Mubarak stands down, the Muslim Brotherhood said on Tuesday.

"Our first demand is that Mubarak goes. Only after that can dialogue start with the military establishment on the details of a peaceful transition of power," said Mohammed al-Beltagi, a former member of parliament from the Brotherhood.

Beltagi said the opposition was operating under an umbrella group, the National Committee for Following up the People's Demands, which includes the Brotherhood, the National Association for Change headed by Mohamed ElBaradei, political parties and prominent figures including Coptic Christians.

Beltagi's comments were echoed by ElBaradei and another opposition official.

Political Vacuum Seen As Egypt's Regime Pressured
Jennifer Ludden, NPR, 31 Jan 11
Article link

After three decades of systematic and brutal repression in Egypt, there is no obvious successor to President Hosni Mubarak, a challenge that analysts consider cause for both concern and hope.

"You can't talk about the 'secular opposition' because it doesn't exist," says Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Mubarak has ruled under a 30-year state of emergency, barring opposition parties from running against him. Credible opponents have been quashed or co-opted, with some small parties allowed to exist to provide an illusion of political plurality.

But there is no charismatic figure in exile, no single jailed dissident who carries the nation's hopes. As analysts try to assess who might emerge to fill a possible political vacuum, the overriding assessment is that it's anyone's guess.

Still, here's a list of some key players to watch:

Grass-Roots Opposition Groups

The protests were originally organized by Internet-based opposition groups, tens of thousands of members strong, who have been laying out their grievances online for several years.

Their calls for strikes and protests had largely fizzled, until the example of Tunisia's uprising lit a fire among Egyptians. Cook, of the Council on Foreign Relations, was in Cairo last week and calls the street protests a "flash mob uprising." There was no leader — they simply happened. Cook says that poses a problem.

He believes the Mubarak regime is "counting on a strategy to sow uncertainty among the population," to instill fear of chaos since there is no other obvious leader.

Nader Hashemi, of the University of Denver, agrees that this is adding to the current confusion, but he also sees a potential long-term benefit. The protests, he says, are "non-ideological. They speak to widespread discontent that exists across social and political classes."

Hashemi says this could prevent one group from consolidating power in the way that Islamists did during Iran's revolution in 1979.

Muslim Brotherhood

Though officially banned, this fundamentalist group is Egypt's largest opposition movement — and once held a sizable number of seats in parliament.

For years, the U.S., Israel and others have worried that in Mubarak's absence, the Brotherhood would convert Egypt into an Islamic regime, reminiscent of Iran's revolution. The group is certainly the most organized opposition movement, able to coordinate through the country's mosques.

The Brotherhood is believed to have the hard-core support of perhaps 20 percent of Egyptians, and some think it could garner 30 percent or 35 percent of the vote in open elections. But Hashemi says this depends on the alternative.

"If you open up the political spectrum," he says, "you'll see support for the Muslim Brotherhood diminish."

Hashemi also believes the Brotherhood today looks less to Iran as a model than to Turkey, where a moderate government has presided over a vibrant democracy and strong economy. The Brotherhood claims among its ranks academics and others who support a secular government.

The Brotherhood was cautious in its initial approach to the current demonstrations, though its members have been increasingly evident at the protests in recent days. The group has joined others coalescing behind Nobel laureate and opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei. But Cook says that could change.

"Historically, they've only sought to cooperate with others when they felt it necessary for their own survival," he says. "In the event the state collapses, maybe they won't feel that need to be in a coalition."

Mohammed ElBaradei

The Nobel laureate and former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog group, began frequent trips back to Egypt from his longtime home in Vienna last year with an aim to foment opposition to the Mubarak regime. A coalition of opposition groups has coalesced around him, calling themselves the National Coalition for Change.

"What ElBaradei has succeeded at is articulating an agenda that a lot of Egyptians could support," says Michele Dunne, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a co-chair of the Working Group on Egypt.

Hashemi, of the University of Denver, says ElBaradei is seen as a neutral compromise figure, and could play an important role in any political transition. Still, ElBaradei hasn't explicitly said he would stand in elections if they were held, and it's not clear how much support he would garner.

"He's more well-known outside Egypt than inside," Hashemi says.

Omar Suleiman

Suleiman's recent appointment as vice president was the first sign that President Mubarak may intend to concede power, but few believe this key Mubarak ally can play anything but a transitional role, if that. He is close to the army, and could prove pivotal as the dance between soldiers and protesters plays out in the streets.

But as a longtime former director of intelligence, "Frankly he's associated with human rights abuses, with widespread torture," Dunne says.

For him to survive as a transitional leader, she says, would depend on what promises he might make: a constitutional change to allow opposition? Free elections by a specified date?

On the other hand, Cook says he can imagine Suleiman declaring a continued state of emergency and trying to put off elections now scheduled for September.

Ayman Nour

In 2005, Nour was the first true opposition figure allowed to contest elections, a move seen as a bow to pressure from the Bush administration. The official results gave him 12 percent of the vote, though the vote was not considered free and fair.

Shortly after, Nour was tried on trumped-up charges and sentenced to five years in prison. He was released in 2009.

The Mubarak regime "worked hard and somewhat successfully at besmirching his reputation," Dunne says. "But I do think he gets a certain amount of begrudging admiration from people in Egypt for the fact that he was targeted by the regime over many years and never abandoned his principles."

Still, whether Nour can reorganize his political party, El Ghad, and foster a broad base of support remains to be seen.

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

JORDAN

Jordan's king sacks PM amid protests

Last Updated: Tuesday, February 1, 2011 | 10:07 AM ET
The Associated Press
CBC


LINK


Jordan's King Abdullah II fired his government Tuesday in the wake of street protests and asked an ex-prime minister to form a new cabinet, ordering him to launch immediate political reforms.

The dismissal follows several large protests across Jordan — inspired by similar demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt — calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai, who is blamed for a rise in fuel and food prices and slowed political reforms.

A Royal Palace statement said Abdullah accepted Rifai's resignation tendered earlier Tuesday.

The king named Marouf al-Bakhit as his prime minister-designate, instructing him to "undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms, which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan," the palace statement said.

Al-Bakhit previously served as Jordan's premier from 2005-07.

The king also stressed that economic reform was a "necessity to provide a better life for our people, but we won't be able to attain that without real political reforms, which must increase popular participation in the decision-making."

Correct mistakes of past, king instructs

He asked al-Bakhit for a "comprehensive assessment … to correct the mistakes of the past." He did not elaborate. The statement said Abdullah also demanded an "immediate revision" of laws governing politics and public freedoms.

When he ascended to the throne in 1999, Abdullah vowed to press ahead with political reforms initiated by his late father, King Hussein. Those reforms paved the way for the first parliamentary election in 1989 after a 22-year gap, the revival of a multiparty system and the suspension of martial law in effect since the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.

But little has been done since. Although laws were enacted to ensure greater press freedom, journalists are still prosecuted for expressing their opinion or for comments considered slanderous of the king and the royal family.

Some gains been made in women's rights, but many say they have not gone far enough. Abdullah has pressed for stiffer penalties for perpetrators of so-called "honour killings," but courts often hand down lenient sentences.

Still, Jordan's human rights record is generally considered a notch above that of Tunisia and Egypt. Although some critics of the king are prosecuted, they frequently are pardoned and some are even rewarded with government posts.

It was not immediately clear when al-Bakhit will name his cabinet.

Al-Bakhit is a moderate politician, who served as Jordan's ambassador to Israel earlier this decade.

He holds similar views to Abdullah in keeping close ties with Israel under a peace treaty signed in 1994 and strong relations with the United States, Jordan's largest aid donor and longtime ally.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2011/02/01/jordan-king-abdullah-government.html#ixzz1CirNxZX6

 

[The Bread Guy]

Is Syria next? Facebook and Twitter campaigns call for protests in Damascus in a 'day of rage'
Elizabeth A. Kennedy, Canadian Press, 1 Feb 11
Article link

Syrians are organizing campaigns on Facebook and Twitter that call for a "day of rage" in Damascus this week, taking inspiration from Egypt and Tunisia in using social networking sites to rally their followers for sweeping political reforms.

Like Egypt and Tunisia, Syria suffers from corruption, poverty and unemployment. All three nations have seen subsidy cuts on staples like bread and oil. Syria's authoritarian president has resisted calls for political freedoms and jailed critics of his regime.

The main Syrian protest page on Facebook is urging people to protest in Damascus on Feb. 4 and 5 for "a day of rage." It says the goal is to "end the state of emergency in Syria and end corruption."

The number of people who have joined Facebook and Twitter pages calling for protests on Friday and Saturday is still relatively small, and some are believed to live outside the country.

Social networking sites were integral to rallying protesters in Tunisia and Egypt.

Facebook is banned in Syria, which makes organizing more difficult — even though many Syrians manage to access the social networking site anyway. More than 2,500 people have joined the page calling for protests on Feb. 4-5, with another 850 joining a page in favour of President Bashar Assad ....

More on link and from Google News here.

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Unrest in the Arab World


Europe's Double Dealing with Despots

02/01/2011
Spiegel ONLINE

LINK

The European Union sanctioned Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko on Tuesday. But when it comes to autocrats in the Arab world, Brussels still hasn't taken off its kid gloves. The EU needs to be more decisive in its support of human rights.

The European Union is capable of bearing down. When it wants to. On Tuesday, EU foreign ministers gathered in Brussels agreed to harsh sanctions against Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko as a result of his crackdown against the opposition in December. The president and 150 members of his regime are no longer allowed to travel to the EU.

But when it comes to the regime of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Europe's leading diplomats are not nearly as decisive. Despite a week of protests which have seen hundreds of thousands of Egyptians take to the streets to demand an end to Mubarak's reign, EU foreign ministers have stopped short of adopting a firm position. Instead, the group preferred to call for "free and fair elections."

"We don't yet know how the situation in Egypt will develop," one foreign minister described the dilemma. "We can't support one side over the other."

Worried about Chaos

The EU's indecision when it comes to Egypt was on full display at the meeting. Of those present it was German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle who had most recently visited the Middle East: He arrived directly from Israel where he had met with his counterpart Avigdor Lieberman. Westerwelle told his EU colleagues that the Israeli government is worried about the chaos in Egypt, which borders Israel to the south. Egypt, after all, was the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with Israel and Hosni Mubarak's regime is the Jewish state's most important ally in the region. According to Westerwelle, Israel is especially afraid that radical Islamists could seize power in Cairo.

Jean Asselborn, foreign minister of Luxembourg, was quick to counter. Israel's concerns, he said, are certainly understandable, but the country could have contributed to the stabilization of the Middle East had it not been so stubborn when it came to negotiating peace with the Palestinians.

The EU, Asselborn said, has paid too little attention to the needs of its people and noted that Brussels had supported Mubarak's moderate regime in order to hinder radicals. The Luxembourg minister did not, however, go so far as to call this a mistake. "We wanted stability because stability means peace," he said.

These days, however, one can no longer speak of stability in the region. The Tunisians have driven out their long-time dictator and the Egyptians are defying Mubarak -- and the EU finds itself confronted with the question of whether it does too little for human rights across the globe.

Indeed, despite the EU's commitment to human rights at home, things look murkier in practice abroad. Egypt, where elections are neither free nor fair and where regime opponents are regularly tortured, received €150 million from Brussels. The European Commission wants to send refugees back to Libya, even though their security under dictator Muammar Gadhafi is far from guaranteed.

Robust Dialogue

And last week, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso received Uzbekistan dictator Islam Karimov, primarily a function of the EU's interest in Uzbek natural gas reserves. There wasn't even a press conference following the meeting -- Karimov threatened to cancel his visit should he be required to speak to reporters. After the meeting, Barroso said he prefers "robust direct dialogue" and said he had demanded in private that Karimov uphold human rights.

Foreign policy officials from the Commission point out that so-called "human rights dialogues" have been ongoing with many of these countries for years. They argue that extensive exchanges with Europe had, in part, helped whet Tunisians' appetite for freedom and democracy. "If we were to make human rights the be-all and end-all we would have to sever our diplomatic relationships with half the world," said one high-ranking EU diplomat.

That may well be true when it comes to the period prior to the recent uprisings. But since then, the EU has shown no signs of shedding its hesitancy. It took Brussels until last Monday to freeze the assets of Ben Ali and his wife -- more than two weeks after Ben Ali turned his back on Tunisia. Hardly a sign of newfound decisiveness.

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