Failing Islamic States - 2011

[George Wallace]

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Middle East

Iraq PM Nouri Maliki 'will not seek third term'
5 February 2011 Last updated at 10:22 ET
BBC World News

LINK

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has said he will not seek a third term in office when his mandate runs out in 2014, state media say.

Mr Maliki returned for a second term after polls last year but endured nine months of wrangling before a unity government could be formed.

He said he would back the insertion of a clause in the constitution bringing in a two-term maximum.

The move comes amid continuing pro-democracy protests in the Middle East.

There has been widespread unrest, including in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Jordan.

'Change is necessary'
Mr Maliki told Agence France-Presse: "The constitution does not prevent a third, fourth or fifth term, but I have personally decided not to seek another term after this one.

"I support the insertion of a paragraph in the constitution that the prime minister gets only two turns, only eight years, and I think that's enough."

Referring to Egypt, he said: "The people have the right to express what they want without being persecuted.

"One of the characteristics of a lack of democracy is when a leader rules for 30 or 40 years. It is a difficult issue for people, it is intolerable and change is necessary."

Mr Maliki this week decided to give half his pay back to the treasury in a gesture viewed as an acknowledgement of the income gap between rich and poor.

Mr Maliki faces a number of key challenges in his second term, including the continuing instability and violence, the division of oil wealth and the planned withdrawal of US troops by the end of 2011.

Mr Maliki's Shia bloc fell two seats short of a majority early last year, triggering a political crisis that gave Iraq the unenviable record of the longest time ever to form a working government.

Mr Maliki eventually pulled together a unity government that included a number of MPs who are followers of staunchly Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

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[Edward Campbell]

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ElBaradei on Democracy's Chances in Egypt

'We Could Experience an Arab Spring'

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Be a bit cautious when listening to El Baradei: he's a foreigner, now. He was born and raised in Egypt but, largely, educated overseas (Geneva and New York) and, after a stint in the Egyptian diplomatic service he made his (distinguished) career internationally, most notably, from 1984-2009 (25 years) in the Vienna based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While I have no doubt that Mohamed El Baradei is well connected and respected I seriously doubt he can spring, fully formed - like a warrior bred from a dragon's tooth, into a leadership position in Egypt.

 

[George Wallace]

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Tunisia suspends ruling party activities


06/02/2011 3:29:53 PM
CBC News



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Tunisia's interior minister has suspended all activities of the former ruling party after the deaths of two people in one of the most violent protests since president Zine el Abidine Ben Ali fled the country.

Fahrat Rajhi declared that all Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD) meetings be suspended and RCD party offices and meeting places be shut down. He added the party will eventually be dissolved.

Rajhi said the move was taken because of the "extreme urgency" of the situation in the country.

The statement, released through the official TAP news agency, came hours after police fired at an angry crowd of about 1,000 attacking the police station in the northwestern town of Kef on Saturday, killing two people and injuring 17 others, the interior ministry said.

The official Tunisian news agency said the crowd had turned on police after the police chief "abused" a member of the community.

A local journalist said the police chief slapped a woman during a demonstration, triggering the violence between police and citizens.

A statement by the interior ministry, which is in charge of police, said that citizens threw stones and small firebombs at the police station in a surge of anger after the "abuse" by the police chief.

The crowd burned two cars, one a police vehicle, a ministry statement said.

Police fired tear gas, then fired into the air in a vain effort to disperse the crowd, then began firing on demonstrators, the ministry said.

The statement did not specify the nature of the abuse by the police chief that triggered the incident, but the witness said a woman was slapped.

The ministry confirmed the police chief was under arrest and said investigators had been sent to Kef.

Tunisia remains tense since demonstrations pushed President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali into exile in Saudi Arabia on Jan. 14.

Police, in particular, have been long distrusted by the population for carrying out the repressive policies of Ben Ali's regime.

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[OldSolduer]

Be a bit cautious when listening to El Baradei: he's a foreigner, now. He was born and raised in Egypt but, largely, educated overseas (Geneva and New York) and, after a stint in the Egyptian diplomatic service he made his (distinguished) career internationally, most notably, from 1984-2009 (25 years) in the Vienna based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While I have no doubt that Mohamed El Baradei is well connected and respected I seriously doubt he can spring, fully formed - like a warrior bred from a dragon's tooth, into a leadership position in Egypt.

Kinda like Ingnatieff....

 

[George Wallace]

;D

Anyway.....Back to the News on day 15 of the demonstrations in Cairo.

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Bittersweet Anarchy


Days of Rage in Alexandria


02/07/2011
By Alexander Smoltczyk in Alexandria, Egypt
SPIEGEL ONLINE



LINK

For days, residents of Egypt's second-largest city, Alexandria, have been living in a largely lawless zone. And while there is anger and rage on the streets, there is little of the enthusiasm and joy that usually marks a revolution.

There are revolutions that smell like jasmine, but not this one. There are revolutions where people celebrate what they've accomplished and are so happy that they can only repeat the word "crazy" in stunned disbelief. The revolution in Alexandria isn't one of these either. Instead, the revolution here reeks of growing piles of garbage, and it sounds like the sticks the revolutionaries beat upon the empty pavement to bolster their courage.

For days, Alexandria's four million inhabitants have been living without a state. Near Alexandria Stadium, a young man in a hoodie pulls a board studded with nails into the street to stop cars. What looks like a 15-year-old boy with a hockey stick resting on his shoulder helps him out. Others have steel rods, pipes and machetes. They have now tasted what it feels like to have power.

The police station behind the stadium in the Bab Sharqi (or "eastern gate") district of the city has been burnt down. Torched personnel carriers once belonging to elite police units are now lying on the street surrounded by soaked bundles of files and drawers.

An old man with a book on his knees is sitting in the midst of this debris. He is Mahmud Rushdi, a retired professor of cybernetics. He and a friend hastily cleared some space in the hallway and stuck a piece of paper on the wall with packaging tape that reads: "Public Committee for Citizens' Issues."

For now, Rushdi is the state. "If someone is missing their car, where should they go?" he asks. "There are no longer any public offices here or any police." Given these circumstances, Rushdi decided to step in for the authorities. He logs all the reports, notifications and complaints in his book, which he will take to the military outposts later on.

Rushdi says that the people must learn that the police are not only responsible for tear gas and bribes. "The military has promised not to shoot. Good. But it's also not shooting at Mubarak," Rushdi adds. "So the mood is subdued. Our revolution hasn't experienced its moment of joy yet. The Bastille is still standing."

Days of Rage

People come to visit the Bab Sharqi police station to take pictures of the ruins and of themselves standing in front of them. All of a sudden, a stout man wearing sunglasses jumps out of his car and yells: "What's going on here?" before laying into the elderly men. "You traitors! You spies!" he shouts, beside himself with rage because foreigners are being shown the humiliation of the state authority. The man cannot be calmed down. When he starts throwing punches, the shoulder holster peeks out from under his leather jacket. The bystanders just look on.

The Bastille might still be standing, but the counter-revolution has already begun. The revolution in Alexandria skipped a few stages: the rapture, the feeling of airy anticipation of empowerment, the carnival.

There are only a few people on the streets and hardly any women. The people are in hiding, as if it were somehow too eerie to be left to their own devices. Only the yellow-and-black Lada taxis continue to race through the run-down streets of the old town as they always have -- like a roused swarm of wasps.

Not far from the main railway station, two archaeologists are standing guard in front of the Roman amphitheater. They have hidden two police cars on the site behind Corinthian columns to protect them from the popular rage. They ask for no photographs to be taken, saying: "Things are chaotic here. So you have to follow the rules." Across the way, a man covered in filth is squatting on the street and sorting through the garbage around him as contentedly as a young boy with his pieces of Lego.

'The Brain of Egypt '

There are families living in the streets of the old city who can only afford to eat once a day. Radi Atalla Iskandir says that the rage is understandable. The Anglican minister is standing on the roof of his rectory, looking down on the groups of people carrying homemade placards while making their way to the square outside the train station for another day of rage. The minister feels uneasy about what's happening. From up here, you can gaze out over almost the entire city. You can see the residences of the patriarchs and the archbishop as well as the rooftop restaurant of the Hotel Cecil, which used to be frequented by the singer Umm Kulthum, the poet Constantine Cavafy and the writers Lawrence Durell and Giuseppe Ungaretti.

Alexandria was once "the brain of Egypt," Iskandir says, the "first city of the eastern Mediterranean." And yet, in history, it has always been too early or too late. "We have lived here for almost 2,000 years," he says. "Under Nasser, we Christians lost our property. Under Sadat, we were stripped of our right to do business. Under Mubarak, they have burned our churches." He stops there with his train of thought.

Iskandir feels uneasy these days when he goes out to the Corniche, the city's long coastal road, and sees a pick-up truck drive by with its bed packed with young men shouting "Allahu akbar!" Iskandir wrote his doctoral dissertation of the "rebirth" of Islam. He knows the members of the Muslim Brotherhood in his neighborhood. He says that they no longer have beards, "but they have their plan."

Unlike in Cairo, the Muslim Brotherhood has come to assume a leading role in the protests in Alexandria. In other places, regime opponents might be organizing themselves via Facebook. But, in Alexandria, every demonstration starts on the front stairs of the Qaed Ibrahim Mosque in a somewhat more traditional way: with bullhorns and crowds of people chanting "Enough!"

The BMW and Mercedes dealerships on the road leading to the airport have been plundered, as well as the Carrefour hypermarket. Rumor has it that a police officer was tied up and dragged behind a car all the way to the Italian Cultural Institute.

Opening a Window to Freedom

The days of rage have pushed open a window to freedom, and the people have been able to look out of it. Not everyone has been pleased with what they've seen. One man sitting in the small street-side cafe "Sultan," who only gives his name as "Monsieur Robert," would like to see that window quickly shut. "Egyptians need order," he says. "Freedom is not enough." Monsieur Robert is your classic Alexandrian: a Christian whose family came here ages ago from the Levant, fluent in five languages and a chain smoker with the build of a Giacometti sculpture, almost too lean to even cast a shadow.

Monsieur Robert, who used to manage the local Kuwait Airways office, also hates the regime's stupidity, including the ministers who protect their vested rights and the obscene wealth of the Egyptian upper class, which can't even muster the decency to build houses or hospitals for the poor. "A liter of milk costs 6 Egyptian pounds, and the average salary is maybe 300 pounds. How is that supposed to work?" he asks. Every year, there are only new promises. "The demands are justified," he says, "but now we have anarchy." And that makes him nervous.

The fiercest battles have been fought right where he lives, on Sheik Ibrahim Street. When the police fled, the concierges of the houses formed a "national guard." Though their opinions might differ, they man the posts together. Mahmud does it for the revolution, but Ahmed -- who has actually found the president and his "30 years of peace" rather good -- does it because he's afraid of looters. They have written the name of their street on white clothes tied around their upper arms. They've organized a phone chain and emergency numbers. From night to night, their supply of arms has gotten progressively better. One insurance broker shows off his stun gun.

At around 11 p.m., the sea lying beyond the wall of the coastal road is a dark, slowly pulsating emptiness. Some demonstrators approach us. One elderly man, still intoxicated by the day's activities, calls out to Monsieur Robert: "I am a martyr. I intend to die for freedom." To which Robert responds: "OK, do what you want. But not here on our street."

Then they continue on their way. In a voice above a whisper, the insurance broker says: "We need another revolution to save this country." There are revolutions that smell like jasmine. And there are revolutions where the people involved know each other too well to allow themselves to celebrate their freedom.

'Alexandria Declaration'

The Library of Alexandria, the most famous of the ancient world, was burnt down when Julius Caesar captured the city in 48 BC. Standing in its place since 2002 is the "Bibliotheca Alexandrina," which faces the sea like a large tilted disk.

Over the years, the institution has hosted workshops and lectures on democracy, reforms and religion. In one room, there is a copy of Salman Rushdie's "Satanic Verses." In March 2004, Arab intellectuals and civil society institutions composed the "Alexandria Declaration" here, a sort of "Charter 77" for reform in the Arab world. While police stations were being burnt down and the court buildings and the governor's residence were stormed, students formed a protective chain in front of their library. They don't want to see another fire destroy their written treasures.

"It's a wonderful moment," says Ismail Serageldin, the library's director and one of Egypt's leading intellectuals, breaking the complete silence in his office. Serageldin holds 30 honorary degrees and a professorship at the "Collège de France," the Pantheon of intellectual life in France. Despite everything that's happening, Serageldin is still convinced this revolution will reach its goal.

"Victor Hugo once wrote: 'No one can resist an idea whose time has come,'" Serageldin says. "Everything you are seeing -- the fighting, the looting -- are merely ripples on the surface."

A Triangle of Power

Instead, Serageldin says, the real issue is the deep undercurrents -- and these are being driven by the secular youth. "In Egypt," he explains, "there is a triangle of power: the Islamists, the statists of the Ancien Régime and us, the liberals. And we will win." Serageldin doesn't view the current uprising as being part of Islamist movement. "Don't worry," he says. "The times when Arab rulers could treat their people like naughty children are over."

Serageldin then goes into the library's conference room to look out the window upon the square where legend holds that Alexander the Great ordered the city to be founded. Hanging in the room is a tapestry bearing the face of the president. "After all," Serageldin says by way of explanation, "Mubarak made this library possible, and his wife chairs our board of trustees. But take a look at this."

Serageldin presses a switch, and a screen comes down in front of the tapestry -- covering first the hair and then the eyes, mouth and chin of Egypt's ruler. Then Serageldin hits the switch again and the screen goes back up so that the "raïs" or president is visible once more.

When you live in a port city, you know just how deceptive the ripples and currents can be.

Translated from the German by Josh Ward

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Muslim Brotherhood's Rashad al-Bayoumi


'The Revolution Will Continue Until Our Demands Are Met'


02/07/2011
SPIEGEL ONLINE



LINK

The West is worried that the Islamist group Muslim Brotherhood will take on an influential role in post-Mubarak Egypt. SPIEGEL spoke with the group's deputy leader, Rashad al-Bayoumi, about what the Brotherhood wants, the West's "refusal to listen," and non-violence.

SPIEGEL: Are we seeing the beginning of a new era for Egypt?

Bayoumi: After 30 years of oppression, corruption and dictatorship, we are definitely standing at a crossroads. The question now is do we want to make way for democracy and human rights, or do we still want dictatorship? The revolution will continue until our demands are met.

SPIEGEL: And what are they?

Bayoumi: First, we need a regime change. We want a new government. Second, we need new elections. The current parliament has no legitimacy and only took office following massive election fraud. Third, all political prisoners must be released immediately. We want justice. And, finally, we need a transitional government that includes representatives from all opposition groups.

SPIEGEL: Does this transitional government also include leading opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei? Do you accept him as a candidate?

Bayoumi: Our demands are compatible with the demands of all opposition groups, including the young people -- and not just from within the political parties. It is, however, too early to talk about new leaders. Now the people will first have to decide -- let's let the people speak.

SPIEGEL: The Muslim Brotherhood is widely regarded as the largest opposition movement in Egypt. Why are you not present at the demonstrations?

Bayoumi: That is ridiculous! Of course we are present. But we are keeping a low profile as an organization. We are not marching with our slogans. We don't want this revolution to be portrayed as a revolution of the Muslim Brothers, as an Islamic revolution. This is a popular uprising by all Egyptians.

SPIEGEL: In the West there is the fear that the Brotherhood is preparing to take power -- that they want to transform Egypt into an Islamic state.

Bayoumi: The West refuses to listen to us. We are not demons. We want peace, not violence. Our religion is not a diabolical religion. Our religion respects people of other faiths, these are our principles. But this regime purposely misrepresents us and manipulates public opinion.

SPIEGEL: How many members does your movement have?

Bayoumi: I don't know -- we don't count them. The government says that there are over three million of us. All I know is that we are everywhere, in every city, every village, every neighborhood. We are an essential part of the people.

SPIEGEL: How many Egyptians would vote for you if free elections were actually held in the near future?


Bayoumi: Let's wait until the people speak. This is a period of upheaval and democratic transition. That is what we want to talk about now, not election results.

SPIEGEL: Will calm return to Egypt?

Bayoumi: The government is solely responsible for the chaos. I promise you that the Muslim Brotherhood has not called for violence, nor will we do so.

Interview conducted by Daniel Steinvorth and Volkhard Windfuhr

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[George Wallace]

An interesting development.  Some of you may be familiar with this location.


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Possible Exile in Germany


Clinic Near Baden-Baden Considered For Mubarak

02/07/2011
By Björn Hengst and Christoph Schwennicke
SPIEGEL ONLINE


LINK

Will Hosni Mubarak travel to Germany as a patient as part of a graceful exit strategy for the Egyptian president? Plans for a possible hospital stay here appear to be more concrete than previously believed. SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that a luxury clinic near Baden-Baden is being favored.

The United States government's scenario for an end to the political chaos in Egypt appears to be this: President Hosni Mubarak travels to Germany for a "prolonged health check" that would offer the 82-year-old a dignified departure. Over the weekend, the New York Times reported that secret talks to that effect were being held between the US government and Egyptian military officials.

According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, plans for a possible hospital stay in Germany are far more concrete than had been assumed so far. Talks are already being held with suitable hospitals, particularly with the Max-Grundig-Klinik Bühlerhöhe in the southwestern town of Bühl near Baden-Baden, SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned from sources close to the clinic. The hospital management declined to comment.

The luxury clinic has an excellent reputation, as well as a respected oncology department, and says on its website it offers "first-class medical care" and the "comfort and service of a top hotel." Patients are accommodated in suites up to 200 square meters (2,152 square feet) in size. Former Ukrainian President Vickor Yushchenko and former Russian Economics Minister German Gref have been treated there.

In the past there have been rumors that Mubarak is suffering from cancer. During the spring of 2010, Mubarak had his gallbladder and an intestinal polyp removed in the Heidelberg University Clinic. Doctors in Heidelberg quashed the cancer rumors at the time.

Currently, Mubarak is residing in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh in a holiday villa. Politicians from Germany's center-right coalition government under Chancellor Angela Merkel have said in recent days they were open to a hospital stay by Mubarak in Germany.

"We need a peaceful transition in Egypt. If Germany can make a constructive contribution in an international framework, we should receive Hosni Mubarak -- if he wants that," said Andreas Schockenhoff, a senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party.

Elke Hof, security policy spokeswoman for the business-friendly Free Democratic Party, the junior coalition partner to the CDU, said: "I would welcome an early departure by Mubarak if this can contribute to stabilizing the situation in Egypt.

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[The Bread Guy]

I'll bet one of these ....

... that before week's end, the new leader of EGY's going to have a rank as part of his name/title.

 

[George Wallace]

With talks with Omar Suleiman being the topic of the news today (2011/02/07) this may be an indicator of what European leaders are discussing.


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The World from Berlin


'The West Must not Place Too Much Faith in Suleiman'

02/07/2011
SPIEGEL ONLINE


LINK

The West has no credibility with the Egyptian opposition because its response to the uprising was divided and hesitant, say German commentators. It must now keep a distance to Vice President Omar Suleiman and avoid interfering in the talks underway -- or risk damaging Egypt's transition to democracy.

Public life is gradually returning to normal in Egypt, with banks and stores reopening at the weekend as Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman met opposition groups including the officially banned Muslim Brotherhood for talks about the country's political future. President Hosni Mubarak remains in office, and the West still isn't explicitly calling on him to step down now.


In Germany, top Western officials at the annual Munich Security Conference warned at the weekend that a transition to democracy must not be rushed, otherwise the crisis could worsen and the Middle East could become more destabilized.

Meanwhile Egyptian opposition figure Mohammed Elbaradei criticized the talks on Egypt's future, saying the negotiations were being managed by the same people who had ruled the country for 30 years. He said the negotiations were not a step toward the change protesters have demanded in 13 days of demonstrations calling for the removal of Mubarak.

Retired US diplomat Frank Wisner, sent by President Barack Obama to talk to Mubarak, said he should remain for an unspecified period to steer through reforms. The remarks were criticized by European diplomats and the US State Department also distanced itself from them, saying it did not necessarily share Wisner's views.

German media commentators criticize the mixed messages about Egypt and say the West must refrain from placing too much faith in Omar Suleiman, the country's former intelligence chief who was appointed vice president by Mubarak on Jan. 29.

Business daily Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"The West is just an onlooker and it should make do with that role. It was surprised by the uprising and has been divided ever since on how to react to it -- there is a cacophony among the Americans, EU representatives and European governments. The West should concede that its influence on events in Cairo is marginal in any case. It can offer money and good advice. But anything that would create the impression that the West was trying to influence the reform process to suit its own interests would be only be damaging."

"The EU countries and the Americans have lost credibility with the Egyptians because they turned a blind eye for too long to the true situation in the country. They tolerated that Mubarak locked away and suppressed the opposition. Whoever the West now supports as opposition leader will be discredited by that backing. If the Europeans and Americans now oppose the Muslim Brotherhood because they fear their Islamic zeal, that will end up strengthening them. Besides, it would make no sense, because no one can ignore the biggest and oldest opposition group in the country."

"The Europeans and Americans should learn from this: If you stick for too long with a dictator -- because he acts in the interests of the West -- you won't have enough credibility to intervene in times of change."

Center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"Mubarak's regime is weakened. But it's still standing.

"And the opposition? A colorful crowd that has been occupying Cairo's central square and mobilizing people in astonishing numbers. No more. The protestors are now supposed to negotiate with the representative of a system that won't give any guarantees: When will the prisoners be freed? Who will guarantee freedom from prosecution? The opposition's only leverage at present remains constant demonstrations. It needs a second source of pressure. That could come in the form of credible support from outside, in the form of a critical distance to Suleiman. If the Americans and Europeans place too much faith in the vice president, they could soon find themselves on the side of an Egyptian autocracy with a new face and old methods. That would provoke the Egyptians even more. Then a different kind of revolution may loom: anti-American, anti-Israeli, anti-Western and maybe Islamic."

Mass-circulation Bild writes:

"President Mubarak is a ruler without a people. No one in Egypt supports him anymore, apart from the profiteers of his regime, and paid thugs. What an opportunity for the Munich Security Conference. The top politicians of Western democracies gathered there should have sent the revolutionaries on the Nile a clear message: Mubarak must go and Egypt is ripe for democracy -- for the rule of the people. But the conference failed, didn't side with freedom and human rights. Instead, the Europeans and Americans are hesitating and manoeuvring."

"The West must unconditionally side with those who are calling for self-determination -- like in 1989 with the peaceful revolution against the communist regime. Our message must be: democracy -- and now."


The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"She wasn't and isn't a revolutionary. But among the western government leaders currently agonizing about the popular uprisings in the Arab world and the opportunities and risks posed by them, German Chancellor Merkel is the only one with personal experience of post-revolutionary politics. Everyone should heed her advice that notwithstanding all the enthusiasm for the Egyptians' right to freedom and self-determination, one must remember that democracy and the rule of law don't just materialize out of nothing. In a country like Egypt that has never experienced democracy, it's not enough to hold elections to make everything right. The political decision-making process must be organized and channelled. And even that wouldn't guarantee that the acclaimed 'Festival of Freedom' doesn't produce a different, and possibly even worse autocratic regime. There are plenty of radical forces in Egypt that would wish for such an outcome."

"The hesitancy over the removal of Mubarak and his system shouldn't immediately be seen just as a sign of European or German indecisiveness or cowardice. The Americans and the Europeans know that there is no going back to the way things were before. But they want to do everything in their -- in this case not especially considerable -- power to prevent the most populous and politically most important Arab country from descending into civil war or into a dictatorship of Islamists."

David Crossland

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Fragile Dream


Egypt's Fight for Freedom

02/07/2011
SPIEGEL ONLINE


LINK

The Egyptian revolution is fragile, and it isn't yet clear where it will lead. Still, it does provide reason for hope: Those reaching for power are not bearded old men, but young people who yearn for democracy. They have impressed the world, inspired their neighbors and forced the West to allow an old ally to fall. By SPIEGEL Staff

The drive from Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo to the home of Mohammed ElBaradei on Alexandria Desert Road is a trip in fast motion, through all layers of modern, sorely afflicted Egypt and through almost all ages of this miracle land of mankind.


The square smells of burning tires. Stones have been torn out of its pavement, and since late last week, tanks and barricades have separated the few supporters of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his many opponents.

The route leads past the Egyptian Museum, which is being strictly guarded by the army. Hardly any other country on earth can look back on a cultural history that is more than 5,000 years old and remains present today, and nowhere else do the people live with and within their past in quite the same way.

Then comes the bridge across the Nile, the river to which the people here owe their very existence. From Zamalek Island, with its upper middle-class residential neighborhood, we drive across another bridge to the western bank of the river. The outlying districts are filled with rows of apartment buildings, with illegal, primitive huts erected on their roofs. Then one of the world's wonders emerges from the smog, admired since the days of the Greek historian Herodotus: the pyramids of Cheops, Chephren and Mykerinos, like a serrated Fata Morgana.

Alexandria Desert Road leads into an upscale residential neighborhood, where those who are envied by ordinary mortals live, behind high walls and gates with guards posted outside. It is a wealthy neighborhood, where our host, who is expecting us, is already waiting at his front door, as friendly and diffident as ever.

'The Face of the Revolution'

Anyone trying to picture the opposite of a charismatic revolutionary would probably hit upon someone who looks like Mohammed ElBaradei, 68. The bald intellectual, with his horn-rimmed glasses, is no tribune of the people. How is it, then, that many in the West see this gentle man, with a passion for golf and opera, as what the German national daily Süddeutsche Zeitung calls Cairo's "face of the revolution?"

ElBaradei, 68, has nothing left to prove to himself. He headed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005 for his efforts there. Encouraged by the enthusiasm of the Egyptian revolution, ElBaradei says that he would be willing to serve as transitional president. "Egypt was long gripped by a culture of fear," he says. "Only a few months ago, I felt as if I were in a country of dead souls. Now that this fear has been overcome, so quickly and comprehensively, everything is possible," he says.

At the moment, ElBaradei is the man everyone wants to talk to: those in power, the revolutionaries and people abroad. A contact within the army has just reported to him where the street fighting is taking place on this particular day. He has an afternoon meeting planned with the activists who are pulling the strings at many of the protest events. Generally regarded as a bookworm, ElBaradei has apparently joined forces with the Facebook generation, uniting the young liberals with the Muslim Brotherhood to form a loose "Alliance for Change" under his leadership. Can ElBaradei be Egypt's liberator?

The world learned an Arab word this week, Tahrir, or "liberation," the name of the square in Cairo where tens and sometimes hundreds of thousands have congregated day and night to protest against the regime of President Mubarak and for a new, democratic Egypt.

For the rest of the world, Tahrir Square became a stage where the Egyptians' impressive struggle for their freedom was on display, a place where they sang together, chanted slogans and supported each other -- with food, blankets and fire -- and where they prayed, Muslims and Christians alike.

But it was also the setting for the brutal acts of a regime that refuses to be driven out, a regime that deployed thugs armed with rocks and guns against peaceful protesters, with orders to mow down anything that resisted them, and to target foreign journalists and their cameras in an effort to prevent the world from witnessing what was happening in Cairo.

Destroyed Prejudices

The week on Tahrir Square was one full of hopes for a better future, but it was also a week full of horror and uncertainty. The fact that the protesters persevered destroyed prejudices -- namely that the Islamic world is rigid, backward and aggressive, and that it will never find a way to join the modern, democratic world. And, of course, the young Egyptians inspired people in other Arab countries, who are now rising up to demand their own freedom.

The Arab revolution has spread like wildfire, a torch of freedom carried by many. It began in Tunis, where the pressure of the street brought down a despotic regime less than four weeks ago. Then came the uprising on the Nile, which has already turned the country upside down in less than two weeks. And now there are also protests in Yemen, Jordan and Algeria, and even in Syria and Sudan.

Whether a domino effect will ensue, toppling one regime after another, is still unclear. What is clear, however, is that the world is experiencing a twilight of the dictators.


It took an entire week, an agonizing, glorious and nightmarish week, until Barack Obama, the leader of the Western superpower could bring himself to characterize the Arab revolution as an "inspiration" for the whole world.

It was one of those rare weeks in which history was being made in small and large ways alike. It was being made in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, where a mother was mourning a son who had set himself on fire, and it was being made on a round plaza in the center of a world city of 16 million people. And suddenly what is happening in the Middle East has become relevant in all the places around the world where kings and despots fear that they could soon be suffering the same fate as Mubarak.

It's also relevant in Washington, DC, of course.

More on LINK



Part 1:  Egypt's Fight for Freedom (Top of Page)

Part 2:  Washington Struggles to Find Its Role

Part 3:  Germany Uncertain Where to Turn in Egypt

Part 4:  The Israeli Paradox

 

[tomahawk6]

Not much faith in Suleiman,but we have all the faith in the world with the Muslim Brotherhood ? It would be a real coup for Iran to bloodlessly topple the pro-Western regimes of North Africa,Jordan and SA. They already control Lebanon. The noose is going to tighten on Israel while the West watches. Once the nukes start going off the hand wringing will commence because Israel wont go quietly to their destruction.

 

[George Wallace]

If things go "nuclear" there will be a great deal of damage in effect creating a large "NO GO ZONE" stretching from most of North Africa through the Middle East into all the 'Stans" bordering China; perhaps even into western China.  Would even NW Europe be safe from 'Fallout'?  I am sure that those controlling the 'buttons' know this and are not totally mad, although if one wanted to become a martyr, that would be a heck of a way to go.

 

[George Wallace]

Not all is smooth sailing for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Middle East


Egypt protests: Muslim Brotherhood's concessions prompt anger

By Dan Murphy, Staff writer / February 7, 2011 
The Christian Science Monitor


LINK

Egypt protests have sought Mubarak's removal. The Muslim Brotherhood suddenly dropped that demand in talks Sunday, angering participants in Egypt protests and causing an apparent split in the group's ranks.

Cairo

Three senior leaders of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, all of whom have suffered arbitrary imprisonment and torture at the hands of President Hosni Mubarak’s regime, sat shoulder to shoulder at a press conference in what should have been a moment of great triumph.

Two Brothers had just come from the group's first formal talks ever with a government that has hounded the Brotherhood, Egypt’s oldest and best-organized opposition group, for generations. Along with secular democracy activists and reform-minded tycoons, they sought to present a united front for reform to Vice President Omar Suleiman, the former spymaster whose career was largely built on crushing Islamist movements.

But the moment had a hint of a climbdown. The Brotherhood backed off its demand that Mr. Mubarak step down immediately and make other concessions, for apparently little concrete in return. Suddenly, the one clear demand uniting them with the youths in Cairo's Tahrir Square – Mubarak's resignation – was gone.

The Sunday afternoon talks drew outrage in the square, where protesters described the Brother's concessions as helping the establishment buy time and find a way to preserve one-party rule here beyond September elections, in which Mr. Mubarak has promised not to run. They also expressed concern that Mr. Suleiman was leading the reform movement into a trap.

“I don’t know what [senior Brotherhood leader Esam el-] Erian is thinking, I really don’t,” said a secular protest leader, who’s spent years trying to bring the Brotherhood into a broader reform camp. “We all know who Suleiman is and what he’s capable of. This is splitting the Brotherhood and could leave all of us isolated and in danger.”

The Brothers, ever cautious and aware that they bear the brunt of regime repression when they join protests, were slow to participate in the demonstrations that broke out on Jan. 25 and have struggled to craft a united front ever since.

A split Brotherhood?

A sign of the split came soon after Mr. Erian, who has done at least eight stints in jail, and his two colleagues spoke. He declared the current parliament “illegitimate," but said that the Brotherhood will give negotiations a chance to work, particularly regarding Mr. Suleiman’s promise of constitutional reform.

“We wanted the president to step down but for now we accept this arrangement,” said Mohamed Saad El-Katatni, a member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council. “It’s safer that the president stays until he makes these amendments to speed things up because of the constitutional powers he holds.”

An influential Brotherhood member of the reform camp then took to Al Jazeera and appeared to contradict the official line.

“The Muslim Brotherhood went with a key condition that cannot be abandoned ... [Mubarak] needs to step down in order to usher in a democratic phase," Brotherhood leader Abdel Moneim Aboul Futuh said on Al Jazeera. “If they were serious, the parliament would have been dissolved [and there would have been] a presidential decree ending the emergency law.”

Key demand: Lifting of emergency laws

Egypt’s emergency laws have been in place since Mubarak took power in the wake of Anwar Sadat’s assassination in 1981. Ostensibly designed to deal with the militant Islamist movements behind Sadat’s murder, they have been used ever since to extrajudicially detain tens of thousands of people, from peaceful Brotherhood members to labor activists to human rights workers, and to override the orders of the Egyptian courts.

Unlike the more complex question of constitutional reform, the emergency laws could be ended with the stroke of a pen. The fact that they remain, the hardcore of democracy activists say, is a sign of Suleiman’s ultimate intent.

Suleiman, who has been taking the lead in dealing with the opposition as Mubarak is relegated to lame-duck status, is currently presiding over security forces that continue to arbitrarily detain and torture activists from all sides.

He acknowledged last night that Wael Ghonim, a Google executive and a major online organizer of the protests who’s been missing for almost two weeks, has been in government detention. He was reportedly released today and joined protesters in Tahrir Square, according to Twitter updates.

Suleiman's vague promises

In his statement last night, Suleiman said “the state of emergency will be lifted based on the security situation and an end to the threats to the security of society.” That has essentially been the government’s position for the past 30 years, with new and vaguely defined threats to “security” found each year to maintain the supposedly temporary laws.

Suleiman’s statement also included vague promises of constitutional reform to allow for fair elections, a “peaceful transition of authority,” and investigations into the killings of activists.

In his statement, which was written as if fully supported by all of the opposition figures he met with, Suleiman praised Egypt’s democracy protesters while also ominously sticking with the government’s line of recent days that the uprising has somehow been stirred up by outside powers.

He referred to “foreign intervention into purely Egyptian affairs and breaches of security by foreign elements working to undermine stability in implementation of their plots.”

State television has been filled with warnings that Iranian, Palestinian, and Israeli plotters are behind Egypt’s largely spontaneous uprising, a message that has gained traction among large segments of Egyptian society.

Egyptians say protests fomented by outside powers

Outside Tahrir Square, a suspicious member of state intelligence stopped two journalists as they left. As he flipped through all 400 pictures on one of their cameras, he gestured towards the thousands of Egyptians massed yards away. “Those people aren’t Egyptians. They’re with foreigners sent here to destroy our country for money. The real Egyptians hate them,” he says.

In Shubra, a sprawling working class Cairo neighborhood, a member of one of the “popular committees” that have provided security for most of the past week, and appear to be melting away now that the police are returning to work, says many of his friends who originally supported the uprising have been swayed by what they’ve seen on TV.

“They think all foreigners are spies now, and that the protesters are being used to destabilize Egypt,” he says by phone. “I can’t guarantee your safety or mine if you come over here.”

More on LINK



Special Report:  How the Egyptian revolt will recast the Middle East

Egypt protests:  An endgame seems to be approaching, but whose?

Egypt street battles:  How Cairo's Tahrir Square turned into a war zone overnight

 

[57Chevy]

;D We can at least forsee keeping the seal on the "Egypt Nuke Button". (hopefully for ever)
Irans push for the Muslim Brotherhood gaining a political stance in Egypt is essential to its
intended future power exertion over the west and any alliances with Israel.
The Suez Canal will remain the hard bargain and it will not come easy. Although it can possibly be disrupted,
its' operations remaining fluid are likely due to the naval presence.
An interesting article:
Egypt: Will U.S. And NATO Launch Second Suez Intervention?
 
On February 1 General James Mattis, commander of United States Central Command whose area of responsibility includes Egypt on its western end, stated that Washington currently has no plans to reinforce naval presence off the coast of that country, but added that in the event of the closure of the Suez Canal:

“Were it to happen obviously we would have to deal with it diplomatically, economically, militarily….”

continued at link...

* of note
Egypt is too strategically important to the U.S. and its European and Israeli allies to permit its citizens to exercise control over the nation’s military and energy policies, over what passes through the Suez Canal. Before that will be permitted to occur, the threats of a military takeover and intervention loom over the nation.


                                  (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

 

[MarkOttawa]

An exceptionally well-researched post at Taylor Empire Airways (one of the best-designed Canadian blogs, Chris Taylor used to post at The Torch):

On Egypt
http://taylorempireairways.com/2011/02/on-egypt/

Pity our major media do not do similar research.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Bo]

Great article. Lots of interesting statistics.

 

[Journeyman]

I have to agree that this is a well-written blog article, with obvious efforts made at providing both a degreee of empirical data and the 'so what' -- an interpretation of the 'evidence.'

Personally, I've never been a fan of a Pavlovian COIN response of "give them democracy and market economy and all will be well." The same situation is extant here. As such, the final paragraph may be the most worthy of reinforcement for we folks in the non-Islamic west:

One can see why the decision is difficult for the President; support a tyrant who is a “friend”, or hang the tyrant out to dry and—even in the best case—he will be replaced by a profoundly hostile democratic government.

Edit: In fact, thank you very much for posting the link to that blog. Reading his thread, "What Grinds my Gears," not only have I learned a new word ("concupiscent"), but I've found his writing to be variously spot on, hilarious, or simply well done. 

 

[VinceW]

Here's a poll done last year in Egypt,

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/crisis-in-egypt/poll-shows-egyptians-favour-democracy-and-stoning-for-adultery/article1892414/

The Egyptians contradictions show there is a likely chance that they'll support a Islamic extremist government.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
Personally, I've never been a fan of a Pavlovian COIN response of "give them democracy and market economy and all will be well ..."

Bingo! But it is the classic American and Canadian, instant gratification/"better results every quarter" mindset: we have a and b and we are "happy" "good" "peaceful" "rich" and so on (delete which not applicable) so if we build a pale, weak imitation of what we think we have, i.e. elections = democracy, then all will be well.

The social, political and economic institutions and the all pervasive mindset (culture) cannot be transplanted or "given" to someone else. It took us 2,500 years of trial and error to make what works for us, it's taken the Chinese even longer to get to their state of "civilization," why in hell would anyone with the brains the gods gave to green peppers expect Afghans or Kenyans or even Mexicans to get there overnight?

 

[57Chevy]

From Guns and Patriots:

No Heroes in This Story! Why Does Egypt Matter, Where is it Headed, and US Policy?