Georgia and the Russian invasions/annexations/Lebensraum (2008 & 2015)

[JackD]

The Georgian prisoners - never see them again... As to accusations of NATO bias - well great big whoppy-do....

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
Well if we are kicking people out of the G8-we should note that Canada really doesn’t belong either.   There are many countries that are more deserving.   
...  

Oh? here are the OECD data. Russia, of course, is not an OECD member because it is not even remotely qualified. (In 2007 it (along with Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia) was invited to exploratory talks which have progressed - but I'm confident they will, now, be cancelled.)

(Countries with GDP in excess of $900 Billion, only)
Country - GDP (billions) - GDP per capita (PPP - IMF data)
USA  -  $13,759.9  -  $45,845
Canada  -  $1,425.6  -  $38,435
Australia  -  $948.1  -  $36,258
UK  -  $2,764.4  -  $35,134
Germany  -  $3,317.4  -  $34,181
Japan  -  $4,378.5  -  $33,577
France  -  $2,589.8  -  $33,188
Italy  -  $2,101.6  -  $30,448
Spain  -  $1,436.9  -  $30,120
(South) Korea  -  $969.8  -  $24,783
Mexico  -  $904.9  -  $12,775

Who should replace us? What in hell does "deserving" mean when we are talking about an organization of 'leading' economies? Does Spain "deserve" to replace Canada? Why? In what area does in 'lead' anyone? Is Korea somehow more deserving than Canada? Russia never should have been invited into the G7. It was a significant blunder by the Clinton (1997) and Bush (2002) administrations. There is now a golden opportunity to clean up one of Billary's and Dubya's messes.

I agree that the G8 should be reformed - my previously expressed preference is for a smaller organization representing blocks and free trade areas. I suspect we will end up weakening the influence of the G8 by admitting more and more members, few of which will be properly qualified (see link above) for membership.

 

[Edward Campbell]

... 
So when are we kicking the Saudi’s out of Canada? 
...

I couldn't agree more with the sentiment. Saudi Arabia is a major sponsor of Islamic terrorism - it is not, in any way at all, a friend to anyone in the West. It is odd that President Bush so often grovels in front of Saudi princelings.

 

[CougarKing]

Oh? here are the OECD data. Russia, of course, is not an OECD member because it is not even remotely qualified. (In 2007 it (along with Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia) was invited to exploratory talks which have progressed - but I'm confident they will, now, be cancelled.)

(Countries with GDP in excess of $900 Billion, only)
Country - GDP (billions) - GDP per capita (PPP - IMF data)
USA  -  $13,759.9  -  $45,845
Canada  -  $1,425.6  -  $38,435
Australia  -  $948.1  -  $36,258
UK  -  $2,764.4  -  $35,134
Germany  -  $3,317.4  -  $34,181
Japan  -  $4,378.5  -  $33,577
France  -  $2,589.8  -  $33,188
Italy  -  $2,101.6  -  $30,448
Spain  -  $1,436.9  -  $30,120
(South) Korea  -  $969.8  -  $24,783
Mexico  -  $904.9  -  $12,775

Is Korea somehow more deserving than Canada? Russia never should have been invited into the G7. It was a significant blunder by the Clinton (1997) and Bush (2002) administrations. There is now a golden opportunity to clean up one of Billary's and Dubya's messes.

Regarding your (rhetorical) question about South Korea, this is because the ROK is an economic powerhouse and one of the four original Asian economic Tigers. Whenever I think of that country, I often classify it in the same league as Japan, Singapore and Taiwan because of their standard of living. If you've travelled to Southeast Asia recently, you can see South Koreans everywhere, from learning Mandarin in Beijing's universities to settling in Manila in large numbers because their money there goes a long way since the cost of living is much less. And anyone who has taught ESL here in Vancouver will notice that an increasing number of their students are coming from South Korea, although they have yet to reach the number of the mainland Chinese and Taiwanese being sent here, although I think the South Koreans have surprassed the number of Japanese studying English here.

 

[greentoblue]

US trainers say Georgian troops weren't ready http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/18/AR2008081801446_2.html

Quote: "They inherited bad habits from the Red Army ... The Georgian army has five regular infantry brigades, each with some 2,000 troops. Only one of them _ the 1st, which was rushed home from Iraq by U.S. planes after fighting broke out _ has been trained to a NATO level ....

The Americans were training them to use the U.S. military's M-4 rifles, he said. But when fighting broke out, the Georgians went back to the Soviet AK-47, the only weapon they trusted. They appeared incapable of firing single shots, instead letting off bursts of automatic fire, which is wildly inaccurate and wastes ammunition, he said.

Another problem was communications: As soon as combat began, the army's communications network largely collapsed, he said, so troops conducted operations using regular cell phones. That left their communications easily accessible to Russian intelligence."
----

I was wondering why the M4 rifles the Russions were displaying looked so new - turns out they were brand new! Wonder if they captured the bolts as well?

 

[geo]

M4 rifles... never fired in anger ??? :warstory:

WRT military communication gear, the russians would've been well versed in jamming their old Soviet era kit...  so that you are stuck with a choice of breaking comms security OR not communicating at all.

 

[time expired]

NATO sends Russia an unmistakable message,do what you
like we wont interfere,its very difficult not to be cynical about
the crap that comes out of Brussels, like the rabbit frozen before
the snake they are terrified to make any move that will further
antagonise the Russian thugs.Tante Angela's (Merkel)tough
words meant nothing.
 The thing that upsets the most is the total lack of will,imagine
if you will that the USAF closed that tunnel connecting Russia
to Georgia and subjected the Russian invaders to a weeks Shock
and Awe,what could the Russians do? launch a nuclear strike
at the US,I don't think so.The next cold war would start for sure,
but does anyone think its not around the corner anyway,we have
just encouraged the Russian to continue on their expansionist
journey with our total lack of will.
                                     Regards  

 

[cameron]

Hmmmnn the Russians are taking some great liberties with the work 'withdrawal'

 

[stegner]

The thing that upsets the most is the total lack of will,imagine
if you will that the USAF closed that tunnel connecting Russia
to Georgia and subjected the Russian invaders to a weeks Shock
and Awe,what could the Russians do?

Shock and Awe only works in countries that don't have real Air Forces.  Russia has a real Air Force as well as a very able  SAM fleet, including the S-400 that would make short work of F-15 and F-16's.  You don't think that the Bear bombers would retaliate?   

 

[geo]

The Syrians have spent a bundle on the purchase of state of the art, russian air defence weapons... S400 included.
That didn't help much when the israelis decided to dispose of that North Korean facility that doesn't exist (any more).

I certainly wouldn't write off those F15s and 16s if I were you

 

[aesop081]

 SAM fleet, including the S-400 that would make short work of F-15 and F-16's. 

Making broad assumptions that you are not qualified to make.

 You don't think that the Bear bombers would retaliate?   

Bear bombers are a political threat, not a military one. Again, your lane is on the left.

 

[vonGarvin]

Shock and Awe only works in countries that don't have real Air Forces.   Russia has a real Air Force as well as a very able   SAM fleet, including the S-400 that would make short work of F-15 and F-16's.   You don't think that the Bear bombers would retaliate?   

Russia WOULD retaliate, and let's not forget that the "great game" is still afoot in the North Atlantic.  Subs parked off of the coast could make very short work.  Implausible?  Heck, it's what we all feared in the Cold War.  The scary thing about Georgia is that it could have, very quickly, gotten out of hand.  
Remember the US flying in the Georgians from Iraq?  Russia could have argued that as an act of war (providing logistical support to an enemy) and shot down those planes (in spite of the "gentleman's agreement" they apparently had).  Having said that, I doubt that Russia would want to go to blows over Georgia.  Neither would NATO.  Or the US especially.

 

[vonGarvin]

S-400 Triumph (aka "SA-20")
Information is power.

It went operational in the Moscow Oblast last year.  I don't think Syria has the S-400.  From what I could find online, they have (had?) the S-300.
As for them being able to take out F15s and F16s, well, where would said fighters be launched?  Turkey?  Iraq?  If anything, any US Air Strike in support of Georgian operations would most likely involve strategic bombers.  How the S-400s would fare against strategic bombers, including stealth, is probably a guessing game.  I don't even know if they are deployed in the Georgian Strategic Direction for that matter.  Probably S-300s, but since they are mobile systems, I'm sure that Vlad could have his Army move them there.  I guess. 

 

[stegner]

It went operational in the Moscow Oblast last year.  I don't think Syria has the S-400.  From what I could find online, they have (had?) the S-300.
As for them being able to take out F15s and F16s, well, where would said fighters be launched?  Turkey?  Iraq?  If anything, any US Air Strike in support of Georgian operations would most likely involve strategic bombers.  How the S-400s would fare against strategic bombers, including stealth, is probably a guessing game.  I don't even know if they are deployed in the Georgian Strategic Direction for that matter.  Probably S-300s, but since they are mobile systems, I'm sure that Vlad could have his Army move them there.  I guess.

Fair enough. 

The Syrians have spent a bundle on the purchase of state of the art, russian air defence weapons... S400 included.
That didn't help much when the israelis decided to dispose of that North Korean facility that doesn't exist (any more).

I certainly wouldn't write off those F15s and 16s if I were you

Those were Israeli F15 and F15 with Israeli avionics and systems-they are not the same as the USAF fleet.  I wouldn't write off the Russians.  Again, the Russians have a real Air Force the Syrians do not-nor have they since 1982.    The west needs to stop thinking itself as invincible.  For instance, the much maligned Iraqi Air Force got some kills of top American jets during the First Gulf War, including a Mig-25 kill of a F/A-18.  I reckon that the Russian Air Force would put up a much better fight.   
   

Bear bombers are a political threat, not a military one. Again, your lane is on the left.

I will respectfully disagree.  The Bear Bombers are still a threat despite your assertions as the Tu-95MS6 can carry 6 Kh-55  and on the updated Tu-95MS16 16 Kh-55 with ranges up to 3,000 km.  In sum this constitutes a very serious threat.  Would you consider none of the Russian bombers a threat or is it just the Tu-95? 

 

[aesop081]

I will respectfully disagree. 

I know you do but i have training and education on my side. The TU-95 is what you mentioned and that is what i commented on. I would be more worried about TU-160s than anything else.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Russia WOULD retaliate, and let's not forget that the "great game" is still afoot in the North Atlantic.  Subs parked off of the coast could make very short work.  Implausible?  Heck, it's what we all feared in the Cold War.  The scary thing about Georgia is that it could have, very quickly, gotten out of hand.  
...

I'm inclined to agree, and that's why our response ought to be less 'thuggish.' We need to use social, diplomatic, political and above all economic weapons.

We beat the Russians last time by offering them a stark choice: stand down or, as the price of 'keeping up,' force the Russian people to eat grass. Military power costs money - to the degree that we can restrict Russia's money we can restrict their power. They have oil; they can and will sell it; we can make sure they can't sell much else or buy what they need. The Russian people have seen the outside world and they want a share; if we can close the doors they will be less and less content with Vlad the Thug.

 

[stegner]

I know you do but i have training and education on my side. The TU-95 is what you mentioned and that is what i commented on. I would be more worried about TU-160s than anything else.

Okey dokey. 

 

[CougarKing]

update:

 

POTI, Georgia - Russian soldiers took about 20 Georgians in military uniform prisoner at a key Black Sea port in western Georgia on Tuesday, blindfolding them and holding them at gunpoint, and commandeered American Humvees awaiting shipment back to the United States.



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26284851

POTI, Georgia: Even as Russia began to withdraw some of its troops from central Georgia on Tuesday, its forces bound and blindfolded 21 Georgian soldiers at the Black Sea port of Poti, displaying them along with five seized U.S. Humvees as a pointed reminder of their grip on the country.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/19/europe/georgia.php#

 

[The Bread Guy]

A little "bigger picture" action from the U.S. Congressional Research Service, via the Federation of American Scientists (.pdf)

Russia-Georgia Conflict in South Ossetia: Context and Implications for U.S. Interests
Jim Nichol, Congressional Research Service report RL34618, 13 Aug 08

Summary:
In the early 1990s, Georgia and its breakaway South Ossetia region had agreed to a Russian-mediated ceasefire agreement that provided for Russian “peacekeepers” to be stationed in the region. Moscow extended citizenship and passports to most ethnic Ossetians and supported the regional economy. Simmering long-time tensions erupted on the evening of August 7, 2008, when South Ossetia and Georgia accused each other of launching intense artillery barrages against each other. Georgia claims that South Ossetian forces did not respond to a ceasefire appeal but intensified their shelling, “forcing” Georgia to send troops into South Ossetia that reportedly soon controlled the capital, Tskhinvali, and other areas.

On August 8, Russia launched large-scale air attacks across Georgia and dispatched seasoned troops to South Ossetia that engaged Georgian forces in Tskhinvali later in the day. Reportedly, Russian troops had retaken Tskhinvali, occupied the bulk of South Ossetia, reached its border with the rest of Georgia, and
were shelling areas across the border by the morning of August 10. Russian warplanes bombed the Georgian town of Gori and the outskirts of the capital, Tbilisi, as well as other sites. Russian ships landed troops in Georgia’s breakaway Abkhazia region and took up positions off Georgia’s Black Sea coast.

On August 12, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev declared that “the aim of Russia’s operation for coercing the Georgian side to peace had been achieved and it had been decided to conclude the operation.... The aggressor has been punished.”  Medvedev endorsed some elements of a European Union (EU) peace plan presented by visiting French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The plan calls for both sides to pull troops back, allow humanitarian aid into the conflict zone, and facilitate the return
of displaced persons. After Russia and Georgia sign a binding text, the plan reportedly will be endorsed at a meeting of the U.N. Security Council. On August 13, the Russian military was reported to be pulling back from some areas of Georgia but also reportedly continued “mopping up” operations.

President Bush stated on August 9 that “Georgia is a sovereign nation, and its territorial integrity must be respected. We have urged an immediate halt to the violence [and] the end of the Russian bombings.” On August 13, he announced that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would travel to France “to rally the free world in the defense of a free Georgia,” and to Georgia, where the United States was launching a major humanitarian aid effort. Congress had begun its August 2008 recess when the conflict began, but many members spoke out on the issue. Senators John McCain and Barack Obama condemned the Russian military incursion and urged NATO to soon extend a Membership Action Plan to Georgia. On August 12, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden warned Russia that its aggression in Georgia jeopardized Congressional support for legislation to collaborate with Russia on nuclear energy production and to repeal the Jackson-Vanik conditions on U.S. trade with Russia.

 

[RangerRay]

From <a href="http://www.samefacts.com/archives/georgia_/2008/08/georgia_on_my_mind.php#comments">Mark Kleiman</a>, where I found the reference to at <a href="http://transmontanus.blogspot.com/2008/08/special-kind-of-pathology.html">Terry Glavin's</a> blog...

Footnote I don't have the time or the patience for a full fisking of the Katherine vanden Heuvel piece linked to above, but I would like to list some of the facts it omits, and ask any reader, including Ms. vanden Heuvel, to either challenge the facts themselves or explain why their omission does not constitute deception.

1. A substantial minority of the population of South Ossetia is ethnically Georgian.

2. For years, Russian "peacekeepers" have been assisting South Ossetian "irregulars" (the distinction is largely notional) in attacking ethnic Georgians.

3. The pace of those attacks was picked up, on Russian orders, after the declaration of Kosovan independence, as a way of baiting Saakashvili into taking military action to which Russia could "respond."

4. The forces Russia sent into South Ossetia could not have been assembled between the time of the attack on Tskhinvali and the time of the Russian intervention. The operation had been planned well in advance.

5. When the USSR broke up, there was also a large population — perhaps constituting a majority — of ethnic Georgians in Abkhazia. The Russian puppet regime there systematically drove them out in 1990, and there are 200,000 refugees from Abkhazia in Georgia proper.

6. That purge of Georgians from Abkhazia was the only substantial act of ethnic cleansing in the post-Soviet history of Georgia. The post-Soviet Georgian government never engaged in anything resembling the genocide Serbia attempted in Bosnia or the massive ethnic cleansing it carried out in Kosovo.