Georgia and the Russian invasions/annexations/Lebensraum (2008 & 2015)

[geo]

It has also increased the self-confidence of Russians after a series of defeats on Iraq and Kosovo. 

Defeats in Iraq & Kossovo.... in the geopolitical sense ???  You can't mean Militarily...

You might as well throw in all the eastern european countries that used to form the USSR - cause every single last one of them was a political defeat... in the eyes of the Russians.

 

[JackD]

The latest: Russia moves SS-21 missiles into Georgia: US defense official
2 hours, 8 minutes ago



WASHINGTON (AFP) - Russia has moved short-range SS-21 missiles into South Ossetia, possibly putting the Georgian capital Tbilisi in range, a US defense official said Monday.


The development came amid other signs that Russia was adding ground troops and equipment to its force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, strengthening its hold over the breakaway regions, officials said.


"We are seeing evidence of SS-21 missiles in South Ossetia," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.


The official said the short-range missiles should be capable of targeting Tbilisi.


"We're seeing them solidify their positions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia," the official said, adding that "more troops and more equipment" were evident in the enclaves.


But the official said it was "hard to say" whether Russia has begun pulling any troops out of Georgia into the enclaves.


"I can't say whether they are actually moving people out right now or not, but we do expect them to start moving out. We expect them to move out slowly, so this may take some time," he said.

http://fe1.ca.news.a1.b.yahoo.com/s/afp/080818/usa/georgia_russia_conflict_us_missiles?printer=1

I had thought the ss 21 along with the pershing 2 was supposed to have been destroyed according to arms agreements...

 

[stegner]

Defeats in Iraq & Kossovo.... in the geopolitical sense Huh  You can't mean Militarily...

The geopolitical sense-not militarily. 

 

[vonGarvin]

The latest: Russia moves SS-21 missiles into Georgia:

Information is power:
SS-21 SCARAB (aka 9K79 Tochka)

On 21 October 1999 US satellites [reportedly the Defense Support Program] tracked two Russian short-range ballistic missile launched from the Russian city of Mozdok some 60 miles northeast of Grozny. The missiles slammed into a crowded Grozny marketplace and a maternity ward, killing at least 143 persons, according to reports from the region. The missiles are believed by intelligence analysts to have been SS-21s.

Точка="Point" in English.  FYI

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The US could fly in airborne units to `Protect the captial`which would cause the Russians to pause without forcing their hand to much, as they can say, that it is of no matter as they had no intention of attacking it anyways. So both Russia and the US can act while saving face, with lots of clear comms in the background so everyone knows where the hidden lines in the sands are.

 

[vonGarvin]

The US could fly in airborne units to `Protect the captial`which would cause the Russians to pause without forcing their hand to much, as they can say, that it is of no matter as they had no intention of attacking it anyways. So both Russia and the US can act while saving face, with lots of clear comms in the background so everyone knows where the hidden lines in the sands are.

I doubt that the US would do that.  Where to find the forces?  What if the Russians call "bluff" and attacked? (This, of course, is assuming that they wish to attack Tiblisi).

I don't think that the US is ready to trade blood for Georgia.  Not now, anyway. 

Anyway, I think that Russia has made its point.  Or points.  Not only will it take years for Georgia to recover its military, but Russia has just demonstrated (again) that it can move its divisions fairly quickly, albeit usually in pretty straight lines.  Still, sometimes that's all they need to do.
"Идет на запад, Иван"
"Да!"

 

[observor 69]

No Cold War over Georgian attack
TheSpec.com - Opinions - No Cold War over Georgian attack
After Russian troops leave the chill will dissipate

Gwynne Dyer
Independent

(Aug 15, 2008)
"Have you noticed," my wife asked, "that when one of America's allies thinks it has a green light to invade somewhere, they always do it in the summer?"

She was right: Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990; Israel invaded Lebanon in July 2006; Georgia invaded South Ossetia in August 2008.

Israel really did have a green light from Washington (not that it helped much), but Saddam Hussein was catastrophically wrong, and Mikhail Saakashvili was, too.

The difference is that the U.S. government continues to support Saakashvili even after his smash-and-grab assault on South Ossetia went so badly wrong. The Bush administration is just trying to save face -- sending in "humanitarian aid" in U.S. military aircraft and ships after the shooting stops, for example -- and Washington never really backed Georgia's aggression. But if the Russians don't understand that, we're heading for a new Cold War.

That would be a very stupid way to spend the early 21st century, but comically belligerent Vice-President Dick Cheney is not the only one declaring that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered." The U.S. and British media (but not those in most other western countries) are talking as if Communists still ruled in Moscow and Russia had committed a wanton act of aggression.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain declares "We are all Georgians now," and suggests expelling the Russians from the G8. Even relatively balanced people like Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are using Cold War analogies: "This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten a neighbour, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it." She's right about one thing -- it's not 1968 -- but the rest is nonsense.

Russia didn't threaten Georgia; it responded to a surprise Georgian attack on South Ossetia, a territory where there were Russian peacekeeping troops by international agreement. It has not occupied Georgia's capital, nor has it overthrown the government (though the Georgians may do that themselves when they realize what a fool Saakashvili has been).

It is true that Moscow was unhappy about Georgia's close ties with the U.S., which included American sponsorship of Georgia for NATO membership. It is also true that, presented with the opportunity by Saakashvili's attack, Russia has taken advantage of it to smash his shiny new American-trained army (which fled in panic from Gori on Monday).

It may even be true that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's government deliberately suckered Saakashvili into his attack by provoking him in various ways, but that is far from certain. Even if that did happen, it was still Georgia that launched an all-out assault on the enclave of South Ossetia on the night of Aug. 7, and Georgian peacekeeping troops who turned their weapons on their Russian colleagues.

If the Russians had not reacted as they did, Georgia would now control the whole territory, and the surviving South Ossetians would mostly be refugees in (Russian) North Ossetia. That does not give vengeful South Ossetians the right to drive the Georgian minority in the enclave out of their villages, as some reports suggest may now be happening, and it is the Russians' duty to stop it. But this is not Czechoslovakia in 1968.

Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia because he thought his American ties would frighten the Russians into silence, but in reality the U.S. was never going to fight a war against Russia over Georgia. So now we have the charade of the "humanitarian aid," and the brazen cheek of the U.S. special envoy to the region, Matthew Bryza, telling the BBC that the violence in the Caucasus strengthens Georgia's case to join the Nato alliance.

"Russia, a country with 30 times the population (of Georgia) decided to roll into its much smaller neighbour and tried to roll over it," said Bryza. "It failed to roll over Georgia, but it would never have even thought of doing this if Georgia were already a member of NATO." Happily, this grotesque misrepresentation of the truth will carry little weight with the larger Western European members of NATO, so that isn't going to happen.

The Russian troops will probably all be gone from Georgia within a week, and Saakashvili will also probably be gone within a year. There will be a certain chill in the air for awhile, but the Cold War is not coming back. At least, not over this incident.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

http://www.thespec.com/printArticle/418961

 

[Blindspot]

I can't think of anyone more arrogant and self-important than Gwynne Dyer... except Noam Chomsky.

Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia because he thought his American ties would frighten the Russians into silence, but in reality the U.S. was never going to fight a war against Russia over Georgia. So now we have the charade of the "humanitarian aid," and the brazen cheek of the U.S. special envoy to the region, Matthew Bryza, telling the BBC that the violence in the Caucasus strengthens Georgia's case to join the Nato alliance.

Does Dyer really believe that Georgia would take the risk to rouse the Russians with the pretext that the US would bail them out considering what's going on in the Middle East? It seems like a typical anti-american stretch. Too bad he wrote his peace before Merkel landed in Georgia.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

How does one "invade" ones own country?

 

[stegner]

How does one "invade" ones own country?

South Ossetia seceded from Georgia back in 1991-92.  With the exception of Akhalgori and other small pockets Georgia has not had any measure of control over that territory since that time and even before that.  The Permanent Committee on Geographical Names (PCGN) finding that,

South Ossetia was an autonomous oblast within Georgian territory from the beginning of the Soviet Union in 1922 until 1990, shortly after Georgia achieved independence...it has not featured as part of the official administrative-territorial structure of Georgia since 1990...

South Ossetia has held two referendums-both resulted in overwhelming yes votes. 

http://web.archive.org/web/20061128192630/http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/11/13/sossetia.independence.ap/index.html


The referendum wrongly excluded ethnic Georgians.  However, the 2007 population of South Ossetia according the PCGN is comprised as such,

Using the estimate of a total population of 70,000 as a basis, it is possible that South Ossetia currently possesses an ethnic Ossetian population of some 45,000 and an ethnic Georgian population of perhaps 17,500.

The majority of South Ossetia has spoken and they want independence. 

The PCGN report can be found here: http://www.pcgn.org.uk/Georgia%20-%20South%20Ossetia-Jan07.pdf

So to South Ossetians Georgia is not their country.   

 

[geo]

Given the overwhelming Russian presence in South Ossetia, sure looks like the Ossetians traded in one "tyrant" for another.

- Two independence referendums ? .... which excluded anyone who could possibly claim to have Georgian ethnic background... that sounds really democratic and "fair".  Are we to believe the population mix that these same ethnic South Ossetians (non Georgian) fairminded citzens have published?

Is it just possible that, the same way as in the Baltics where the Soviets encouraged their retiring servicemen to settle in these areas - have tipped the balance to the point where there are more russian South Ossetians than georgian South Ossetians in the SO gene pool?

 

[Edward Campbell]

I’ll see your Gwynne Dyer and raise you a Diane Francis with this column, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post:

http://www.financialpost.com/analysis/columnists/story.html?id=315361eb-b49a-4585-9c0a-0f76269a81ce

Stand up to Russian bully Bear

Diane Francis, Financial Post 

Published: Tuesday, August 19, 2008

The Russians overdid it by invading and destroying huge chunks of Georgia and the backlash builds, both diplomatically and economically.

The ruble and Russian markets have tanked and nobody in their right mind would do business with, or in, Russia.

Moscow was provoked into the invasion, perhaps by accident or on purpose, by a foolish Georgia President who sent troops into breakaway provinces where there were Russian peacekeepers.

Even so, there was no need to rape and pillage the tiny country. But, as one commentator suggested a while ago, all bully-boy leaders occasionally pick up some "crappy little nation and throw it against the wall" just to flex their muscles.

Canada, hardly a world power, still has moral standing in the world and much skin in the game. This is why Ottawa should grow a backbone and do three things immediately: prohibit any more Russians, or Russian entities, from acquiring any more Canadian corporations or assets; oppose WTO membership for Russia for the time being; and support the movement to kick Russia out of the G8, to which it has never really belonged.

By the way, these are not punitive policies but protective ones. The Putinocracy is neither a democracy nor a free-enterprise nation. The media has been gutted, the elections were fraudulent, the rule of law has never been in place. Just ask BP, whose CEO has just been booted out of the country, or any number of other foreigners who have been disenfranchised or gone missing unceremoniously. (Frank Stronach, Belinda Stronach, Magna, PetroCanada and others doing business there or with Russians, make note of their rough treatment.)

Meanwhile, the biggest future victims -- the Europeans -- must avoid becoming totally dependent on Russia's energy supplies. A big motivation for Russia's unnecessary conquest of Georgia was to worry owners of the so-called BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline, capable of carrying up to 10 million barrels a day of oil from Central Asian republics to a Turkish port via Georgia, thus bypassing Russian pipelines. (Owners include BP, Total of France, the Azerbaijani government, among others.)

But Vlad Putin may have overplayed his hand when he thumbed his nose last week at a ceasefire deal negotiated by France's Nicolas Sarkozy.

Within hours of signing off, and with Putin's thugs ignoring the "treaty," Poland agreed to join the U. S. missile shield, sparking a nasty nuclear threat from a Russian general. This weekend, Ukraine stood beside Georgia and is talking nuke protection too.

Strangely, this is good news for Canada. It makes our oil and mining sectors look like the best bets in the world, along with Australia's.

It also should wake up a pliant and naive Ottawa that Canada has been a target nation of the Russian Bear for nearly two years now. Several of our largest companies have been snapped up, plus goodness knows how many more are secretly owned or doing business with the Russians.

Canada should also make it known that it will absolutely oppose regime change in Georgia, will help rebuild the country and will be against World Trade Organization membership for Russia.

This is also because the next "crappy little country" to be thrown against the wall by the bully-boy might be Canada's Arctic territories.

dfrancis@nationalpost.com

She adds a third prescriptive measure to kicking Russia ass out of the G8 where, as Francis correctly observed, it never, ever belonged, and preventing it from joining the WTO: ” prohibit any more Russians, or Russian entities, from acquiring any more Canadian corporations or assets.” That’s a good policy for all Western nations – no truck or trade with the thugs.

She also makes two more good points:

• These (kick Russia out and keep Russia out) are not punitive policies but protective ones. The Putinocracy is neither a democracy nor a free-enterprise nation. It doesn’t belong in the ’club’ and its presence threatens the real progress that many former Russian colonies are making; and

• Canada, hardly a world power, still has moral standing in the world and much skin in the game. Canada does matter and Canada needs to work, very hard, in all aspects of world politics – including in the military domain – to keep its standing.

All in all and comme d’habitude, Dyer is so full of sh!t his eyes are brown and Francis is right.

 

[vonGarvin]

Does Dyer really believe that Georgia would take the risk to rouse the Russians with the pretext that the US would bail them out considering what's going on in the Middle East? It seems like a typical anti-american stretch. Too bad he wrote his peace before Merkel landed in Georgia.

IMHO, Dyer hit the nail on the head.  The facts are that The Georgians DID take the risk.  Why else would they move into South Ossetia?  They are trying to join NATO, and perhaps this was a move to try to force their hand.  Maybe it worked.  Their infrastructure has just been wrecked, and now Merkel is saying that Georgia will be part of NATO.  Maybe Saakashvili is smarter than we think.  He'll get brand new barracks, boats, tanks and whatever, all on the NATO Euro.
Yes, this all happened within the internationally recognised borders of Georgia, but until recently, Kosovo was within the internationally recognised borders of Serbia.  We use precision guided munitions.  Russians use Motor Rifle Divisions.  It's all about effective technology: the Russians use what works, not what's fancy.  After all, that's probably why they used pencils during the space race and the US used high tech (and expensive) pens.

I can't think of anyone more arrogant and self-important than Gwynne Dyer... except Noam Chomsky.

I agree; however, even sometimes, Chomsky got things right.

 

[JackD]

Don't bring up Chomsky - I'm editing two master's papers for former students and Chomsky's Universal Grammar is  a core component of both....

 

[vonGarvin]

Don't bring up Chomsky - I'm editing two master's papers for former students and Chomsky's Universal Grammar is  a core component of both....

Sounds like you could use a Motor Rifle Division of your own ;D

 

[JackD]

i know where I'd like to throw him and several other experts of his ilk.. Incidentally, I was downtown today (i live in Poland) I noticed that the tourist signs are no longer in Polish, English and German, but  are now Polish, English and Russian - Oh and the bank lady is taking Russian lessons  that are being offered by the bank management - coincidence..... ?

 

[vonGarvin]

Incidentally, I was downtown today (i live in Poland) I noticed that the tourist signs are no longer in Polish, English and German, but  are now Polish, English and Russian - Oh and the bank lady is taking Russian lessons  that are being offered by the bank management - coincidence..... ?

:rofl:

Now THAT'S comedy!

 

[stegner]

The ruble and Russian markets have tanked and nobody in their right mind would do business with, or in, Russia.

This was true from the early 1990’s to late 1990’s.  The Russian economy is doing much better at the moment.  It’s the U.S economy that is largely causing international investors concern. 

  She adds a third prescriptive measure to kicking Russia *** out of the G8 where, as Francis correctly observed, it never, ever belonged, and preventing it from joining the WTO

Well if we are kicking people out of the G8-we should note that Canada really doesn’t belong either.  There are many countries that are more deserving. 

That’s a good policy for all Western nations – no truck or trade with the thugs.

So when are we kicking the Saudi’s out of Canada? 

For the people who keep referring to South Ossetians as ethnic Russians.  Please don't-as they are not.  The majority South Ossetians are of Persian ethnicity.   

 

[CougarKing]

Interestingly. some Russian forces have been spotted retreating toward S. Ossetia and Azkhazia, IIRC after just tuning into CNN.

Still, at least one of these Russian columns has been spotted with Georgian prisoners aboard trucks as well as US-built Humvees in tow/being driven by Russian soldiers as war prizes.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/19/georgia.russia.war/index.html

NATO: Russia not honoring cease-fire terms
Story Highlights
NATO accuses Russia of not honoring agreed cease-fire with Georgia

Russian Foreign Minister says NATO announcement is "biased"

Russia-Georgia exchange prisoners captured during the fighting

However, at same time Russia imprisons Georgian forces in port city of Poti

BRUSSELS, Belgium (CNN) -- NATO has accused Russia of failing to honor the full terms of the cease-fire agreement brokered by the European Union last week aimed at ending the fighting in Georgia.

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said on Tuesday that Russian forces were still inside Georgia despite the agreement to withdraw -- and despite Moscow saying they had begun doing so on Monday.

"We do not see signals of this happening," Scheffer said. "There can be no business as usual with Russia under the present circumstances."

Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said NATO's accusations were "biased."

Lavrov said NATO was taking the side of Georgia, whose forces he said had failed to withdraw to their barracks.

"They blame us as if there were no requirements for the Georgian side in the six points (of the cease-fire agreement)," he said. "I mean the requirements to bring back their troops to the places where they are on a permanent basis."

Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of staff of Russia's armed forces, said Tuesday that some troops remained in place to protect South Ossetia's borders.

The conflict began when Georgian troops entered the breakaway territory to attack pro-Moscow separatists. Russia responded by invading the country on August 8, prompting heavy fighting with Georgian forces that spread to another breakaway territory, Abkhazia.

The fighting has devastated parts of Georgia and South Ossetia, with many casualties reported. The U.N. refugee agency said more than 158,000 people had been displaced by fighting in Georgia, mostly from districts outside the breakaway territories where the fighting began. Watch how Georgians are being affected by the conflict »

Both Russia and Georgia accuse the other of "ethnic cleansing" during the conflict.

Hopes of resolving the crisis had been boosted earlier on Tuesday when Georgia and Russia exchanged soldiers who had been captured during the fighting, then Russia agreed to a beefed-up monitoring mission for Georgia's disputed region of South Ossetia.

However, at the same time Russian soldiers took 21 Georgian military police officers prisoner at the port of Poti in western Georgia, interior ministry officials said. The Associated Press reported they also seized four American vehicles set to be returned to the U.S. following joint military exercises.

Georgian officials said that local police in Poti asked the military police to intercede when Russian forces entered the city and impeded the delivery of humanitarian aid. After a verbal exchange, the Russian forces took the Georgians into custody, according to the interior ministry officials.

The military police officers were disarmed and transferred to the nearby town of Senaki, where Russian forces have established a base, the officials said. The Russian military, however, said its forces were picking up roving Georgian forces who have not returned to their bases.

Scheffer's announcement came after foreign ministers from NATO member nations gathered in Belgium for an emergency meeting over the crisis which also involved U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

A statement from the ministers said: "Military action must cease definitively and military forces must return to their positions held prior to the outbreak of hostilities."

NATO members "remain concerned by Russia's actions," the statement said, calling Russian military action "disproportionate."

Ministers said they were "seriously" considering the implications of Russia's actions on the NATO-Russia relationship

"As long as Russian forces are basically occupying a large part of Georgia, I cannot see a NATO-Russia Council convene at whatever level," Scheffer said.

"I should add that we certainly do not have the intention to close all doors in our communication with Russia, but ... the future will depend on the concrete actions from the Russian side." Watch report on what actions West may take against Russia »

Scheffer said NATO would set up a NATO-Georgian Commission to oversee Georgia's relationship with the international alliance, supervise its bid to join the group and assist Tbilisi with support in the wake of the Russian invasion.

He said a team of 50 NATO staff would to go to Georgia to help assess needs of the Georgian military, help with air traffic resumption and assist in the investigation of cyber attacks.

The U.S. claims Russia is trying to undermine the government of Georgia's pro-Western leader, Mikheil Saakashvili.

The Bush administration wants suspension of the whole spectrum of programs of cooperation between NATO and Russia. Britain and several former Soviet republics support this idea, but other countries -- including France and Germany -- are less inclined to isolate Russia that aggressively.

The United States wants Europe to cancel the many exchanges of personnel and postpone an EU-Russia summit scheduled for November, and is also pushing Europe to start lessening its energy dependence on Russia.

Rice will travel to Warsaw to sign a formal agreement with Poland on Wednesday to base ballistic missile interceptors there. That move, along with the eastward expansion of NATO, has angered Moscow.

The chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said that Russia has agreed to allow the immediate dispatch of 20 of its observers to Georgia's capital of Tbilisi to supplement the nine already based in South Ossetia, with the aim of increasing the total to 100.

CNN's Jill Dougherty in Moscow contributed to this report

Copyright 2008 CNN. All rights reserved.

 

[JackD]

"Well if we are kicking people out of the G8-we should note that Canada really doesn't belong either.   There are many countries that are more deserving." - actually that depends on how you measure wealth - I'd say based on mineral wealth alone it is certainly a top country - Intellectual wealth, yes, infrastructure -yes. industrial processing/ yes.. I'd say Canada tops it... the Russian economy is shaky - where's the development? Where's the pollution controls? Where's the safety concerns? Who is paying salaries of top scientists? Where do people want to come and where do people want to leave? That answer to that question is the evidence on which country is superior.