Here comes trouble

[Kirkhill]

I humbly beg paracowboy's forgiveness. 

The shame I feel will prevent me posting until the next time. ;D

 

[Wookilar]

pc, did you borrow kg's hat? (The one made of tinfoil) Besides, we all know the EFWG (TM) is owned by a subsiderary of the U.S. State Dept.

The decline of China is going to be intersting to watch. Want a really good show? Watch India. The projections on them in the next twenty years are downright frightening. The amount of oil that they will need is mind boggling.

Unless some "emerging" technologies get out there, a resource war may be the only way for some of these up and comers to get the resources that their populations will be demanding.

 

[54/102 CEF]

India

Kut relief force 1916

Its their oil!

 

[a_majoor]

China will be interesting to watch. A recent article in "The Australian" points out their financial system is saddled with a trillion dollars in nonperforming loans http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19067992-36375,00.html. When Japan had a few billion dollars in nonperforming loans, their banking system virtually collapsed and Japan went into a deflationary spiral all through the 1990s, so we could expect something similar in China.

India will be a huge global player, and I think they, and not the Chinese, will be the leading power of the 21rst century. India has a market economy and a democratic system of government, and a reasonably flexible social structure. The middle class population of India is about the same as the entire population of the United States so they have the human resources to take advantage of opportunities and the social organisations to move quickly. The key advantage of India is they are part of the Anglosphere, and have powerful partners and allies across the globe, with the United States being their pre eminent partner. China on the other hand is rather insular and particularistic, and while they may be busy buying friends to gain access to resources, they may find their choices of partners like Iran and Sudan more trouble than they were worth.

Energy and resources will be important factors in the 21rst century world, but lets not get too fixated on what resources are important today. For example Turkey could become a giant in South West Asia due to its supply of fresh water, controlling the economies of its  neighbours. With changes in technologies, the supply of oil in South West Asia could become irrelevant, regulating so much of yesterday's realpolitik to the dustbin of history.

 

[a_majoor]

More on Russia, via Instapundit 11 May 06:

IS DEMOGRAPHY DESTINY? PUTIN THINKS SO:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/10/AR2006051001316.html

    Russian President Vladimir Putin offered women cash to have more babies on Wednesday as he tackled a decline in population that is leaving swathes of the country deserted and threatening to strangle economic growth. In his annual address to the nation, Putin said each year Russia's population fell by about 700,000 -- or about the same as the population of San Francisco. He proposed new financial incentives to nudge up the birth rate.

As Philip Longman has noted, there's a global baby bust http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040501faessay83307/phillip-longman/the-global-baby-bust.html, but it's worse in some places -- chiefly places of a statist bent -- than others. Also addressed in the story are efforts to address Russia's demographic problems by getting people to live longer, healthier lives, something where there's plenty of room for improvement in contemporary Russia. I've got more on that subject in a somewhat diffferent vein, here.http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=063004D

 

[jerrythunder]

i wonder what other country's threat maps look like, take for instance Iran

 

[paracowboy]

i wonder what other country's threat maps look like, take for instance Iran

I imagine it looks like a blue coloured shape roughly the same dimensions as the nation of Iran, surrounded by nothing but red. They mistrust their neighbours more than anyone (which is why they're working so hard to keep Iraq and A-stan destabilized), they don't trust non-Muslim states, they don't trust Muslim states they can't influence directly, and they don't really trust their own people.

Must suck to be them.

 

[George Wallace]

I imagine it looks like a blue coloured shape roughly the same dimensions as the nation of Iran, surrounded by nothing but red. They mistrust their neighbours more than anyone (which is why they're working so hard to keep Iraq and A-stan destabilized), they don't trust non-Muslim states, they don't trust Muslim states they can't influence directly, and they don't really trust their own people.

I imagine it looks like a red coloured shape roughly the same dimensions as the nation of Iran, surrounded by nothing but blue.  ;D

Depends on where their last 'prominent' military instruction came from; the Communists (Russia or China) or the US.

 

[paracowboy]

yeah, we definitely need a "shaking fist" smiley icon.

 

[pbi]

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered women cash to have more babies on Wednesday as he tackled a decline in population

Isn't that basically what the Quebec government does?

But, seriously, those Russians are organized! Imagine arranging all those women to have their babies on Wednesday! Woo! Scary...

Cheers

 

[Hot Lips]

:rofl:

HL

 

[Haggis]

Isn't that basically what the Quebec government does?

But, seriously, those Russians are organized! Imagine arranging all those women to have their babies on Wednesday! Woo! Scary...

And in true Soviet tradition, the Russians will press gang several battalions into assisting with the sowing of seeds and the harvest.... ;D

 

[a_majoor]

From Strategypage

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20060522.aspx

    If present trends continue, the population of Russia will decline from 143 million to 100 million by 2050. Not only that, but by 2050, most of the population may be Moslem. Currently, about 15 percent of Russians are Moslem, and the average Moslem family has three or more children, while the average non-Moslem family has one or two. While Christian (largely Slavic) Russians have seen their numbers tumble, the Moslem population of Russia has grown over 40 percent since 1989 (from births, migration and conversions). There has also been a religious revival, with the number of mosques growing from under a thousand when the Soviet Union collapsed, to over 8,000 today. That means Moslem men drink a lot less, and live healthier, and longer, lives. . . .

    The 70 years of communist rule was very damaging and demoralizing to most Russians, as it was to other nations that endured less of it in Eastern Europe. Prosperity and democracy have arrived in a fitful and threadbare state. Things are getting better, but that usually means that women have fewer children. It's been that way for thousands of years. The aristocrats were notorious for having small families, and the main reason was that the wealthy wives had better, and less arduous, things to do than pregnancy and child rearing. Because of that, Russia will probably have a larger Moslem minority by 2050, but not a majority, because even Moslem women have fewer children as they become educated and more affluent.