Iran Super Thread- Merged

[couchcommander]

I don't think anyone should be surprised that the US is scouting targets.

Re: the use of tactical nukes. The US had been exploring and developing limited nuclear options all through the Cold War. They seem to believe that nuclear weapons can be used to acheive certain objectives, within the context of a conventional war, without necessarily leading to an escalation.

In fact the <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/policy/dod/jp3_12fc2.pdf">Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations, circa 2005</a> specifically states that nuclear weapons will be considered when there is a threat of an enemy using a WMD, to attack enemy WMD in hardened bunkers, to stop WMD proliferation to proxies, and just plain old to "demonstrate US intent or capability to use nuclear weapons to deter enemy use of WMD".....scary, especially when you realize this is all pre-emptive. For us lefties this caused quite a stir...

 

[Cliff]

Re: the use of tactical nukes. The US had been exploring and developing limited nuclear options all through the Cold War. They seem to believe that nuclear weapons can be used to acheive certain objectives, within the context of a conventional war, without necessarily leading to an escalation.

Agreed.

Yet, I still don't think they'll be used in Iran (it would destabilize the ME and further polarize the various sects).

For us lefties this caused quite a stir...

LOL.

 

[zipperhead_cop]

IMO I don't see nukes happening.  If there was one way to polarize the planet against the US, nukes would be it.  I have to believe with bunker buster technology, and other smart weapons, they could get the job done there (hopefully it won't come to that) with conventional ordinance. 
Besides, they are going to need all of those warheads to turn India into a glass parking lot when the Red Wave that we are all paying to build starts to flow out of China.  But I will leave it to ChCdr or one of the other better edumacated members to shoot down or support that wild hare opinion. ;D

 

[couchcommander]

I agree that nuking Iran isn't likely, but then again I thought that the US wouldn't pull out of the ABM treaty as well (too destabilizing)... I just wouldn't rule it out IMO.

*edited.... so that it actually made sense, i suppose... yup definately edumacation*

 

[Long in the tooth]

Iran may be the most complex geo-political problem since NATO was formed.  The US knows this and has made overtures towards India, which is of course the world's largest democracy.  Pakistan and China complicate the issue, but I believe concerns about China are quite over-rated.  The chinese must worry about 10 million men who will never find wives due to the (now obvious) one child policy.  Once China has a significant middle class democracy will hopefully follow.

Iran's young population (half under twenty five years old), religious government and military improvements do not bode well.  They have recently released news that they've developed a torpedo based on Soviet designs that can travel at 200 knots.  It's powered by a rocket motor and uses 'super cavitation' technology to minimize resistance through the water.  Iranian subs have been routinely patrolling as far as the South African coast and interdiction of oil tankers of the straits of Hormuz would be disasterous for the western economies.

I think the US will draw a very public line in the sand that is acceptable to the public and even world opinion, and then goad Iran to cross it.  The theocrats in Tehran will have to be careful as any misstep on their part could lead to massive international opposition to them.

 

[A O G 101]

I think the US will draw a very public line in the sand that is acceptable to the public and even world opinion, and then goad Iran to cross it.  The theocrats in Tehran will have to be careful as any misstep on their part could lead to massive international opposition to them.

I agree that the us will have to draw a line ,I think more so they will have to draw a line that is acceptable to the rest of the world and the Israeli's.

 

[Cliff]

I agree that the us will have to draw a line ,I think more so they will have to draw a line that is acceptable to the rest of the world and the Israeli's.

The ROW also needs to get their butts and act before it's too late.

 

[Long in the tooth]

OK, out on a limb... but I believe the USA believes better earlier than later.  This balance of power probably gives the US more latitude, and they have definitly learned a lesson from the 'wonder bra'... gotta have some fun here, ask and I'll tell...

 

[couchcommander]

Right, I'll bite... what do you mean by the US's "wonder bra"... other than their getting to be middle aged and needing "more support" to feel good about themselves in public?

 

[zipperhead_cop]

OK, out on a limb... but I believe the USA believes better earlier than later.  This balance of power probably gives the US more latitude, and they have definitly learned a lesson from the 'wonder bra'... gotta have some fun here, ask and I'll tell...

I'll bite too.  WTH are you talking about?

 

[Long in the tooth]

OK, both the NVA vs US and Afghan vs USSR recieved sp from external allies.  Tthis is where I get "no visible means of support".  They all received sp, but not acknowledge it as it would made it direct conflict with the other super power.  In Iraq etc right now there is no external sp..... The ultimate Wonderbra omercial should be shot in Havana.

 

[1feral1]

Face it nukes or conventional, one day on the news you'll hear that their reactor(s) will be destroyed by either the US or Israel. in my opinion, this is certain.

Cheers,

Wes

 

[Long in the tooth]

Iraq is very difficult as they have spread scientific  sites all over the country.. and it is a Big country with 60,000,000 people, as many as Nazi Germany....

But Iraq has no external means of sp..., all its own. The US has done an incredible job in isolatiing Iran.  Iran is now a festering problem that most countries would like to see lanced.

 

[A O G 101]

I think a lot is going to have to do with the russian's picking up on the re-construction at the Bushehr reactor site,that germany vacated after the revolution in  Iran,If the US wants to find a diplomatic solution to this problem their going to have to form closer ties with russia over this thing.Russia is bidding to supply them with the fuel for the reactor and disposing of the spent fuel themselves,If all goes has planned,great, if not this could be the ultimate ' Genie in a bottle' for all of us.

 

[tomahawk6]

Iran is determined to have nuclear weapons negotiations are just a stalling tactic until they have workable nuclear weapons. It took South Africa only 10 years time and $250m to produce 7 weapons capable of being employed by their Bucaneer's. Their method was the gun type uranium model. Iraq also was using that method to produce a nuclear weapon. It takes a metric ton for a Scud warhead and 500 pounds for an advanced Scud [longer range]. The Iranian's have both. Our choice will be either to do nothing and see Iran gain nuclear weapons or try to take out their ability to make nuclear weapons. For Israel its really no choice at all - for their very survival they must act.

http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/overview/technical2.asp?print=true

 

[zipperhead_cop]

Agreed, Tomahawk
Now, stand by for the shrieking and wailing about Bush loving war and being part of a Zionist doctrine :

 

[MarkOttawa]

A useful counter-weight to the New Yorker and Washington Post stories by William Arkin (no fan of the Bush administration) of the Washington Post--who has uncovered a lot of relevant facts.
http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2006/04/goldilocks_and_.html

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

More facts from William Arkin:
http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2006/04/wild_speculatio.html

Mark
Ottawa

 

[tomahawk6]

The Iranian's announced that they have enriched uranium.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,191334,00.html

 

[Armymatters]

My personal opinions on Iran:

To me, the real heads of state (not the nutbag Iranian President) sincerly do not believe that they want nuclear weapons. The IAEA in a February 2006 report reported that all declared nuclear materials in Iran are accounted for by the IAEA (http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2006/gov2006-15.pdf) indicating to the IAEA that there is no diversion of such nuclear materials towards a weapons program, but the IAEA cautions that there may be undeclared nuclear materials and activity in Iran. They came to this conclusion due to issues in the past about the scope nuclear programme, and lack of information on the enrichment, and the supposed weapons designs the Iranians got.

Taking out the Iranian nuclear facilites will be a tough task. Most of these facilites are buried deep underground, and are heavily dispersed throughout the country. Taking them out using air strikes will not gurantee total destruction and shutdown of all of the facilities. This is not Iraq and the Osirak reactor, as Iraq back in the 1980's had only one reactor and research facility. Iran has many reactors and research facilities. The only way to permenantly shut them down in Iran is to do a ground assault, but that would be iffy in prospects, as the Iranian military is well trained, well armed, well motivated, and very large, compared to the paper tiger that Iraq was. Also, there is a very real and big chance that such an invasion would ignite a Islamic Holy War against the West, a prospect that would be very alarming for the security of Western nations.

Iran does have the right to a civilian nuclear power programme under the NPT. Proliferation of nuclear weapons around the world is of great concern for the security of all nations on this planet, and as such, proliferation of nuclear weapons technology should be curtailed and prevented.

Edit: to summarize, yes, I think that the Iranian nuclear programme is of concern regarding its possible size and its intentions and goals, but one must see the bigger picture, and think about the security of all of the neighbours of Iran and of the rest of the world if attempts are made to shut down the program by force.

Edit 2: I am also asking the following questions:
1. What is the cost of shutting down Iran's nuclear program by force in terms of lives and the security of other nations? Is it worth it to attack Iran to shut down the nuclear program, compared to the increased security risks that may be encountered due to the fallout of such an attack?
2. Can we trust the Iranians with the program? So far, cooperation with the IAEA has been above that the IAEA requires. Can we trust them with being more forthcomming about the scope of their program?
3. What are the risks to other nations in the region? Will it destabilize other governments?