Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Humphrey Bogart]

Buddy. Selection and maintenance of the aim is a rather basic idea. Do you even know what the aim is in this war? Cause at this point, I'm not even sure the guy leading the parade has any idea.

Meanwhile, a whole bunch of people here are fantasizing about taking over random islands. And can't articulate to what end. Taking over Abu Musa and the Tunbs doesn't open the Strait. And Qeshm is the size of Okinawa. Not something a MEU could hold.

I think of the folks here as non-amateurs. So it's a little disappointing when some of the "ideas" are on par with Twitter level of analysis.

Edit. Will add too that I didn't mean to suggest no opinion below the rank of Major counts. That's a bad faith reading of my post. I specifically said I hope the people pushing uncritical thought here didn't reach leadership levels. Cause I sure as well wouldn't want someone in charge of me who can't think through more than one chess move.

What's your actual experience in the MENA AO to justify your position? Or have you ever served anywhere near the MENA? Iran is a bully, I've done my own dance with the IRGC and think this is long overdue. An unrestricted Naval and Air Campaign is exactly the medicine needed.

Added this edit to clarify:





I don't think it's unreasonable when asking troops to risk their lives and risking global chaos to expect leaders to articulate the goals and the plan.

Let's be real here. We (including me) thought we might get a real uprising a few weeks ago. That's not happening. But instead of articulating less maximalist goals and a new plan, Trump is flailing around and trying to blame allies.

Some of us have articulated our thoughts fairly coherently here. I'll reiterate what I posted a few days ago:

I believe there are two immediate military objectives:

Nuclear Disarmament: Preventing Iran from developing or pursuing nuclear weapons.
Military Capacity Reduction: Destruction of Iran's missile production, missile stockpiles, and navy.

These are ongoing and the Israeli/American coalition is achieving considerable success.

I believe this is a medium-term military objective:

Proxy Network Neutralization: Stripping away the "Axis of Resistance" (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah).

Israel is mobilizing and looks poised to invade Southern Lebanon. Iran has been considerably weakened in Syria and elsewhere. The Houthi problem still needs to be resolved but the Saudis/Gulf States may be able to make a move there with Iran tied up at home.

I believe these two are longer-term strategic objectives:

Regional Hegemony Control: Impoe a new, more stable regional security architecture and eliminating Iran's ability to project power.
Regime Change/Collapse: Topple the current Iranian leadership or make them subservient to American hegemony.

Ongoing but this will not happen overnight.


This move is being done at the behest of the Gulf States. The leadership there is encouraging Trump in private. They are our Allies in the region and want the Iranians weakened. They also get it done without really having a lift a finger. It's a win-win for them.

The can regarding Iran holding the entire region hostage, while also pursuing weapons of mass destruction had been kicked down the road long enough. It was time to exercise some might and assert American military prowess and put the theocratic terror state in their place. Iran closing the Strait, while also demonstrating that their missile capabilities were more advanced then previously publicly believed is only further justification that this was the right decision.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035616702122377472

Cuba next up for Regime change

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

If it was that easy the USN could roll up with a dozen frigates and get this done in a week or two.

No they couldn't because they haven't got any friggin' frigates at this time, due to their shortsightedness. They preferred to go with some dinky thing called Littoral Combat Ships, that funny enough can't fight in THAT littoral area.

 

[ytz]

MAGA is 100% behind their hero...

They would be true regardless of what he does. I mean look at some of the apologists here. And they don't even vote in the US.

The real question is what happens to his (and the wider movement's) popularity in the US. There's been reporting that he thought he'd get a popularity boost like Bush had after 9/11. Instead he's getting the popularity of 2006 Insurgency Iraq.

One would think he would know better given that he rode the unpopularity of the Iraq war (in part) to power:

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I'll take "Only allowed staff jobs and not to lead soldiers for a $100" Alex.

How many times do I have to tell you people? It's KEN, KEN, KEN. I loved Alex, but he is gone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035616702122377472

Cuba next up for Regime change

I think the US may soon discover that, as much as they hate their government system, Cubans don't look at Americans as liberators after the US made ordinary Cubans suffer so much in the last 70 years, and even more lately.

 

[ytz]

Whatever happens, Iran is no longer an aspiring regional middle power for some time to come.

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Most people watching them holding the Gulf hostage wouldn't think this.

 

[ytz]

I think the US may soon discover that, as much as they hate their government system, Cubans don't look at Americans as liberators after the US made ordinary Cubans suffer so much in the last 70 years, and even more lately.

Might need to do Cuba to distract from Iran. Lol.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

How many times do I have to tell you people? It's KEN, KEN, KEN. I loved Alex, but he is gone.



I think the US may soon discover that, as much as they hate their government system, Cubans don't look at Americans as liberators after the US made ordinary Cubans suffer so much in the last 70 years, and even more lately.

There are a lot of Cubans that love the US and risked a lot to get there. If the regime finally collapses, those Cubans will be the ones to finance the rebirth of the country.

 

[Remius]

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Most people watching them holding the Gulf hostage wouldn't think this.

I suspect they are learning exactly how they can leverage their position to their advantage. When the 48 hours are actually up we’ll see what the US does or doesn’t do and then how Iran responds.

 

[Remius]

There are a lot of Cubans that love the US and risked a lot to get there. If the regime finally collapses, those Cubans will be the ones to finance the rebirth of the country.

Or Cuba could go the way Haiti has and turn into a mess with a massive brain drain that it will never recover from. Time will tell.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Most people watching them holding the Gulf hostage wouldn't think this.

Anyone in the region can hold the Gulf hostage. Makes them all equals, really.

 

[Brad Sallows]

There are a lot of Cubans that love the US and risked a lot to get there. If the regime finally collapses, those Cubans will be the ones to finance the rebirth of the country.

Love of exiles/expats for the US is almost a given. Sentiment of Cubans in Cuba is harder to judge. Generally, though, peoples who got out from under tyranny over the decades have shown that they hated the tyrants more than outsiders the tyrants tried to blame for their troubles.

 

[FJAG]

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Most people watching them holding the Gulf hostage wouldn't think this.

There are many here who identify with Ukraine as a David v Goliath situation and firmly back the Ukraine regime.

Unfortunately there are many states and organizations who identify with Iran and its position and see what is going on in the same way. If the US efforts do not result in a major regime change in Iran then the regime will recover its ability to fund and support its form of warfare and will be viewed by that crowd as heroes.

As an aside to being seen as a neutral peacekeeper in ship transit escorts, Canada has already declared Iran as a terrorist organization. I doubt they would see us as a neutral party.

 

[ytz]

There are a lot of Cubans that love the US and risked a lot to get there. If the regime finally collapses, those Cubans will be the ones to finance the rebirth of the country.

I doubt it. Really depends on what regime emerges after. They can replace the commies with some corrupt dictatorship. Meets American goals. Won't do squat for the average Cuban and I doubt it attracts investment. If you're some wealthy Cuban-American why would you go invest where some warlord is just going to take your shit? Getting rid of a regime, doesn't necessarily guarantee the rule of law needed to secure investment.

There's a distinction between legal and illegal war and war crimes committed within that war.

Just wanted to say your whole post was fantastic. Thanks for the thought and nuance.

But honestly I think whether it is or isn't a war crime is probably less relevant than whether it helps win the war. Whatever winning is at this point...

Anyone in the region can hold the Gulf hostage. Makes them all equals, really.

Only one of them has enough of a suicidal disposition to hurt themselves while hurting others. And, unfortunately, that gives them escalation dominance.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Or Cuba could go the way Haiti has and turn into a mess with a massive brain drain that it will never recover from. Time will tell.

I don't get that vibe from them. Haiti is some weird 7th level of Dantes Hell. Yet the Dominican Republic on the same Island can basically keep the crap together. I don't think the Cubans will go full Capitalist, but will form some sort of democratic socialism with a health layer of free market to pay most of the bills. I expect a lot of countries would step up to help them transition and likley a good role for Canada to get involved in as we have a good rep with them. A promise of aid tied to political reform.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I think the US may soon discover that, as much as they hate their government system, Cubans don't look at Americans as liberators after the US made ordinary Cubans suffer so much in the last 70 years, and even more lately.

That is most of the places the U.S. seeks influence.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There are many here who identify with Ukraine as a David v Goliath situation and firmly back the Ukraine regime.

Unfortunately there are many states and organizations who identify with Iran and its position and see what is going on in the same way. If the US efforts do not result in a major regime change in Iran then the regime will recover its ability to fund and support its form of warfare and will be viewed by that crowd as heroes.

As an aside to being seen as a neutral peacekeeper in ship transit escorts, Canada has already declared Iran as a terrorist organization. I doubt they would see us as a neutral party.

Unlike Ukraine, the majority of Iranians despise their government. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Pretty obvious that if you tell the enemy that, one thing it does is express confidence that you don't think it's needed in order to achieve whatever you really want, irrespective of what you claim as maximal war aims (or whatever maximal aims others seek to impose on you). Hoping to drag you into a quagmire on land isn't going to save your target.

Well, write your books. Here's a thing: decades after the fact, so much that everyone "just knows" about various battles and operations and campaigns of WW II is revealed as somewhere between mistaken and myth.

One thing that is fairly consistent: incompetence and corruption exist in substantial measure in all governments, and are worse (and therefore more debilitating) in true tyrannies. In the specific case you mention, there are Americans who think that parts of the FBI that are more interested in investigating unpopular presidents than in any more pressing concerns aren't fit for purpose and ought to be excised or repurposed. They won the election. Ranting about how much of those sorts of things you think I support doesn't change the domestic politics. An issue has more than one side. Maybe the US will suffer; politically, I can guess that one side will claim the other defanged the US and the other side will claim the first was sloppy about who it let into the country and wasted time pursing political revenge. Tsk, tsk.

Whatever happens, Iran is no longer an aspiring regional middle power for some time to come. Their "infrastructure deficit" has become rather larger than it was.

If the Gulf States are quietly binding their time to bend the knee with Iran once Trump decides to walk away from the utter mess that he and Bibi created in order to getting their oil shipments flowing again, how does that line up with your sentence, 'Iran is no longer an aspiring regional middle power for some time to come?'

 

[Czech_pivo]

Might need to do Cuba to distract from Iran. Lol.

A victory from the defeat that they are about to incur.

 

[ytz]

I don't get that vibe from them. Haiti is some weird 7th level of Dantes Hell. Yet the Dominican Republic on the same Island can basically keep the crap together. I don't think the Cubans will go full Capitalist, but will form some sort of democratic socialism with a health layer of free market to pay most of the bills. I expect a lot of countries would step up to help them transition and likley a good role for Canada to get involved in as we have a good rep with them. A promise of aid tied to political reform.

I'm not sure we can say with any certainty what would emerge. Look at Iraq. The Americans thought purging everybody with the slightest ties to the regime was a good idea. In reality, de-Baathification massively fueled the insurgency there when a whole bunch of fighting age men who just got Baath party memberships to get government were now threatened with permanent unemployment.

I hope Cuba doesn't go that way. And I hope you're right. And I do hope we help. A stable Cuba would be great for us too. But it's a gamble, nevertheless.

Unlike Ukraine, the majority of Iranians despise their government. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

It's more complex.

They hate the regime. They also resent the sanctions. And fear balkanization, possibly even more than anything else.

Don't take my word for it. Just look at how even the diaspora reacts to the idea of arming the Kurds or attacks on infrastructure. The exiled Shah is calling on Trump not to attack infrastructure right now.

Saying they hate the regime is incredibly one note and ignores the nuance of what Iranians actually think about their situation. And unfortunately not understanding that might lead to decisions that actually don't cause them to rebel. Floating the idea of arming the Kurds, for example.