Iran Super Thread- Merged

[ytz]

What's your actual experience in the MENA AO to justify your position?

No deployment there. Spent the majority of my childhood (11 years) there. And still have family there.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I’m doubtful Iran missed the nuclear site by over 10km. Is there any independent evidence they was their target?

According to this article from the Daily Kos, the missiles hit two cities; Arad which is 22 miles (35 km) north of the facility, and Dimona which is 12 miles (19 km) west.

 

[ytz]

Iran is a bully, I've done my own dance with the IRGC and think this is long overdue. An unrestricted Naval and Air Campaign is exactly the medicine needed.

I agree that Iran is a bully. But the regime has also been there for decades. Dismantling them is not a fun night in Caracas kind of operation. It requires a sustained op for which the Americans were wholly unprepared.

Contrast this with the Gulf War. George Bush built the largest coalition the world had ever seen. He got UNSC approval. He got participation and support of the Gulf States. He coordinated the release of the SPR the day operations commenced to reassure markets. He laid out defined objectives and ceased hostilities once they were achieved. That was real competence. Screaming on Truth Social about how your allies are a "PAPER TIGER" while begging them for ships is not the same thing.

 

[FJAG]

Contrast this with the Gulf War. George Bush built the largest coalition the world had ever seen. He got UNSC approval. He got participation and support of the Gulf States. He coordinated the release of the SPR the day operations commenced to reassure markets. He laid out defined objectives and ceased hostilities once they were achieved. That was real competence. Screaming on Truth Social about how your allies are a "PAPER TIGER" while begging them for ships is not the same thing.

You might enjoy this book which provides a deep dive into the issues which plagued the American military in their preparation for and execution of the Iraq campaign.

Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq: Gordon, Michael R., Trainor, Bernard E.: 9781400075393: Books - Amazon.ca

Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq: Gordon, Michael R., Trainor, Bernard E.: 9781400075393: Books - Amazon.ca

www.amazon.ca

 

[Brad Sallows]

If the Gulf States are quietly binding their time to bend the knee with Iran once Trump decides to walk away from the utter mess that he and Bibi created in order to getting their oil shipments flowing again, how does that line up with your sentence, 'Iran is no longer an aspiring regional middle power for some time to come?'

It'll be a while for Iran to recover to where it was. Whether the Gulf states are friendly or cordially hostile doesn't matter much in the world. The main pain point is Israel. For a while, it's going to be easier for Israel to fight Iran's proxies and to interfere with Iran's attempts to develop nuclear warheads and delivery systems.

For a while, Iran will be militarily weak. That might matter to Iraq, Pakistan, and Kurds, but I doubt any of them is in a position to take advantage even if they would like to.

Effects don't have to be permanent to matter. This has been a big setback for Iran. No amount of cultural chest-thumping about seeing off the Great Satan can change that, but it will make some people feel good for a few weeks. It has also demonstrated a significant Chinese vulnerability (point of pressure).

 

[FJAG]

I don't get that vibe from them. Haiti is some weird 7th level of Dantes Hell. Yet the Dominican Republic on the same Island can basically keep the crap together. I don't think the Cubans will go full Capitalist, but will form some sort of democratic socialism with a health layer of free market to pay most of the bills. I expect a lot of countries would step up to help them transition and likley a good role for Canada to get involved in as we have a good rep with them. A promise of aid tied to political reform.

This is going off thread a bit, but some of us remember a briefly softer socialist Cuba which became a pariah because it had to align with the USSR to resist American aggression. That caused it to foment and support, as a proxy for the USSR, revolutionary ideology and action in South and Central America and Africa.

While the country appears as a nice tourist haven, the countries most supportive of Cuba at this time are Russia and China (and formerly, Venezuela). In the absence of a thorough dive into whatever intelligence there is on Cuban influence operations in the Western hemisphere I'd approach any overtures to them with great caution.

That said, I don't think much of Trump's current approach. The US approach to that country is complex and greatly influenced by past anti-communist prejudices and the Cuban ex-pat community. There have been decades of missed opportunities to bring Cuba into the fold. If anything, the current US actions will drive it away.

 

[Lumber]

This is going off thread a bit, but some of us remember a briefly softer socialist Cuba which became a pariah because it had to align with the USSR to resist American aggression. That caused it to foment and support, as a proxy for the USSR, revolutionary ideology and action in South and Central America and Africa.

While the country appears as a nice tourist haven, the countries most supportive of Cuba at this time are Russia and China (and formerly, Venezuela). In the absence of a thorough dive into whatever intelligence there is on Cuban influence operations in the Western hemisphere I'd approach any overtures to them with great caution.

That said, I don't think much of Trump's current approach. The US approach to that country is complex and greatly influenced by past anti-communist prejudices and the Cuban ex-pat community. There have been decades of missed opportunities to bring Cuba into the fold. If anything, the current US actions will drive it away.

Is the American approach complex? Seems like it's nothing more than "choke them until they pass out and/or roll over".

 

[FJAG]

Is the American approach complex? Seems like it's nothing more than "choke them until they pass out and/or roll over".

Maybe I should have said that the issues that drive the US's approach are complex. I agree, On the surface the US's approach itself seems blunt and/or unsophisticated.

 

[ytz]

Curious to see how much influence the Cuban refugees have after this administration gets burned by a distorted picture from Iranian exiles.

 

[RangerRay]

Who in the US is benefitting financially?

I’m sure Jared, Steve and the Trump spawn have their greasy mitts in there…

 

[GK .Dundas]

Maybe I should have said that the issues that drive the US's approach are complex. I agree, On the surface the US's approach itself seems blunt and/or unsophisticated.

At the moment based on what I see , I'm beginning to suspect you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in this current administration.
Who could spell sophistication much less practice it in any form.
Unless you count Ponzi schemes of course.

 

[Baz]

Hasn’t this been characteristic of a lot of Trump’s actions. He has tapped into a feeling that a lot of the old ways of doing things are broken, a feeling that is not without merit. But even though he has broad support, he doesn’t actually have a better way of doing things.

In doing so, has he squandered an opportunity to deal with Iran?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Curious to see how much influence the Cuban refugees have after this administration gets burned by a distorted picture from Iranian exiles.

Cuban exiles have a fairly strong influence in florida which is why the US Administration acts the way it does. As for "distorted Iranian exiles" I have 50,000 living near me and they have a very good idea of what is going on in Iran , now and before as there was a constant flow of people and money to and from Iran. There is a tiny number of pro-regime Iranians here, but they generally keep a low profile.

 

[ytz]

In doing so, has he squandered an opportunity to deal with Iran?

His instinct on Iran was not wrong. The Islamic Republic is a cancer that grew because it was left unchecked. But it's exactly for that reason that competence in execution is paramount. This is probably the only chance the US will ever get in any of our lifetimes. Half assing all but guarantees that the regime that survives will go full North Korea in their quest for survival. Including with nukes. So if Trump wasn't willing to go all in, it was probably a bad idea to start the war in the first place.