Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Humphrey Bogart]

Buddy. Selection and maintenance of the aim is a rather basic idea. Do you even know what the aim is in this war? Cause at this point, I'm not even sure the guy leading the parade has any idea.

Meanwhile, a whole bunch of people here are fantasizing about taking over random islands. And can't articulate to what end. Taking over Abu Musa and the Tunbs doesn't open the Strait. And Qeshm is the size of Okinawa. Not something a MEU could hold.

I think of the folks here as non-amateurs. So it's a little disappointing when some of the "ideas" are on par with Twitter level of analysis.

Edit. Will add too that I didn't mean to suggest no opinion below the rank of Major counts. That's a bad faith reading of my post. I specifically said I hope the people pushing uncritical thought here didn't reach leadership levels. Cause I sure as well wouldn't want someone in charge of me who can't think through more than one chess move.

What's your actual experience in the MENA AO to justify your position? Or have you ever served anywhere near the MENA? Iran is a bully, I've done my own dance with the IRGC and think this is long overdue. An unrestricted Naval and Air Campaign is exactly the medicine needed.

Added this edit to clarify:





I don't think it's unreasonable when asking troops to risk their lives and risking global chaos to expect leaders to articulate the goals and the plan.

Let's be real here. We (including me) thought we might get a real uprising a few weeks ago. That's not happening. But instead of articulating less maximalist goals and a new plan, Trump is flailing around and trying to blame allies.

Some of us have articulated our thoughts fairly coherently here. I'll reiterate what I posted a few days ago:

I believe there are two immediate military objectives:

Nuclear Disarmament: Preventing Iran from developing or pursuing nuclear weapons.
Military Capacity Reduction: Destruction of Iran's missile production, missile stockpiles, and navy.

These are ongoing and the Israeli/American coalition is achieving considerable success.

I believe this is a medium-term military objective:

Proxy Network Neutralization: Stripping away the "Axis of Resistance" (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah).

Israel is mobilizing and looks poised to invade Southern Lebanon. Iran has been considerably weakened in Syria and elsewhere. The Houthi problem still needs to be resolved but the Saudis/Gulf States may be able to make a move there with Iran tied up at home.

I believe these two are longer-term strategic objectives:

Regional Hegemony Control: Impoe a new, more stable regional security architecture and eliminating Iran's ability to project power.
Regime Change/Collapse: Topple the current Iranian leadership or make them subservient to American hegemony.

Ongoing but this will not happen overnight.


This move is being done at the behest of the Gulf States. The leadership there is encouraging Trump in private. They are our Allies in the region and want the Iranians weakened. They also get it done without really having a lift a finger. It's a win-win for them.

The can regarding Iran holding the entire region hostage, while also pursuing weapons of mass destruction had been kicked down the road long enough. It was time to exercise some might and assert American military prowess and put the theocratic terror state in their place. Iran closing the Strait, while also demonstrating that their missile capabilities were more advanced then previously publicly believed is only further justification that this was the right decision.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

If it was that easy the USN could roll up with a dozen frigates and get this done in a week or two.

No they couldn't because they haven't got any friggin' frigates at this time, due to their shortsightedness. They preferred to go with some dinky thing called Littoral Combat Ships, that funny enough can't fight in THAT littoral area.

 

[ytz]

MAGA is 100% behind their hero...

They would be true regardless of what he does. I mean look at some of the apologists here. And they don't even vote in the US.

The real question is what happens to his (and the wider movement's) popularity in the US. There's been reporting that he thought he'd get a popularity boost like Bush had after 9/11. Instead he's getting the popularity of 2006 Insurgency Iraq.

One would think he would know better given that he rode the unpopularity of the Iraq war (in part) to power:

 

[ytz]

Whatever happens, Iran is no longer an aspiring regional middle power for some time to come.

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Most people watching them holding the Gulf hostage wouldn't think this.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

How many times do I have to tell you people? It's KEN, KEN, KEN. I loved Alex, but he is gone.



I think the US may soon discover that, as much as they hate their government system, Cubans don't look at Americans as liberators after the US made ordinary Cubans suffer so much in the last 70 years, and even more lately.

There are a lot of Cubans that love the US and risked a lot to get there. If the regime finally collapses, those Cubans will be the ones to finance the rebirth of the country.

 

[Remius]

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Most people watching them holding the Gulf hostage wouldn't think this.

I suspect they are learning exactly how they can leverage their position to their advantage. When the 48 hours are actually up we’ll see what the US does or doesn’t do and then how Iran responds.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Most people watching them holding the Gulf hostage wouldn't think this.

Anyone in the region can hold the Gulf hostage. Makes them all equals, really.

 

[FJAG]

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Most people watching them holding the Gulf hostage wouldn't think this.

There are many here who identify with Ukraine as a David v Goliath situation and firmly back the Ukraine regime.

Unfortunately there are many states and organizations who identify with Iran and its position and see what is going on in the same way. If the US efforts do not result in a major regime change in Iran then the regime will recover its ability to fund and support its form of warfare and will be viewed by that crowd as heroes.

As an aside to being seen as a neutral peacekeeper in ship transit escorts, Canada has already declared Iran as a terrorist organization. I doubt they would see us as a neutral party.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There are many here who identify with Ukraine as a David v Goliath situation and firmly back the Ukraine regime.

Unfortunately there are many states and organizations who identify with Iran and its position and see what is going on in the same way. If the US efforts do not result in a major regime change in Iran then the regime will recover its ability to fund and support its form of warfare and will be viewed by that crowd as heroes.

As an aside to being seen as a neutral peacekeeper in ship transit escorts, Canada has already declared Iran as a terrorist organization. I doubt they would see us as a neutral party.

Unlike Ukraine, the majority of Iranians despise their government. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Pretty obvious that if you tell the enemy that, one thing it does is express confidence that you don't think it's needed in order to achieve whatever you really want, irrespective of what you claim as maximal war aims (or whatever maximal aims others seek to impose on you). Hoping to drag you into a quagmire on land isn't going to save your target.

Well, write your books. Here's a thing: decades after the fact, so much that everyone "just knows" about various battles and operations and campaigns of WW II is revealed as somewhere between mistaken and myth.

One thing that is fairly consistent: incompetence and corruption exist in substantial measure in all governments, and are worse (and therefore more debilitating) in true tyrannies. In the specific case you mention, there are Americans who think that parts of the FBI that are more interested in investigating unpopular presidents than in any more pressing concerns aren't fit for purpose and ought to be excised or repurposed. They won the election. Ranting about how much of those sorts of things you think I support doesn't change the domestic politics. An issue has more than one side. Maybe the US will suffer; politically, I can guess that one side will claim the other defanged the US and the other side will claim the first was sloppy about who it let into the country and wasted time pursing political revenge. Tsk, tsk.

Whatever happens, Iran is no longer an aspiring regional middle power for some time to come. Their "infrastructure deficit" has become rather larger than it was.

If the Gulf States are quietly binding their time to bend the knee with Iran once Trump decides to walk away from the utter mess that he and Bibi created in order to getting their oil shipments flowing again, how does that line up with your sentence, 'Iran is no longer an aspiring regional middle power for some time to come?'

 

[Czech_pivo]

Might need to do Cuba to distract from Iran. Lol.

A victory from the defeat that they are about to incur.

 

[ytz]

What's your actual experience in the MENA AO to justify your position?

No deployment there. Spent the majority of my childhood (11 years) there. And still have family there.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I’m doubtful Iran missed the nuclear site by over 10km. Is there any independent evidence they was their target?

According to this article from the Daily Kos, the missiles hit two cities; Arad which is 22 miles (35 km) north of the facility, and Dimona which is 12 miles (19 km) west.

 

[ytz]

Iran is a bully, I've done my own dance with the IRGC and think this is long overdue. An unrestricted Naval and Air Campaign is exactly the medicine needed.

I agree that Iran is a bully. But the regime has also been there for decades. Dismantling them is not a fun night in Caracas kind of operation. It requires a sustained op for which the Americans were wholly unprepared.

Contrast this with the Gulf War. George Bush built the largest coalition the world had ever seen. He got UNSC approval. He got participation and support of the Gulf States. He coordinated the release of the SPR the day operations commenced to reassure markets. He laid out defined objectives and ceased hostilities once they were achieved. That was real competence. Screaming on Truth Social about how your allies are a "PAPER TIGER" while begging them for ships is not the same thing.

 

[FJAG]

Contrast this with the Gulf War. George Bush built the largest coalition the world had ever seen. He got UNSC approval. He got participation and support of the Gulf States. He coordinated the release of the SPR the day operations commenced to reassure markets. He laid out defined objectives and ceased hostilities once they were achieved. That was real competence. Screaming on Truth Social about how your allies are a "PAPER TIGER" while begging them for ships is not the same thing.

You might enjoy this book which provides a deep dive into the issues which plagued the American military in their preparation for and execution of the Iraq campaign.

Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq: Gordon, Michael R., Trainor, Bernard E.: 9781400075393: Books - Amazon.ca

Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq: Gordon, Michael R., Trainor, Bernard E.: 9781400075393: Books - Amazon.ca

www.amazon.ca

 

[Brad Sallows]

If the Gulf States are quietly binding their time to bend the knee with Iran once Trump decides to walk away from the utter mess that he and Bibi created in order to getting their oil shipments flowing again, how does that line up with your sentence, 'Iran is no longer an aspiring regional middle power for some time to come?'

It'll be a while for Iran to recover to where it was. Whether the Gulf states are friendly or cordially hostile doesn't matter much in the world. The main pain point is Israel. For a while, it's going to be easier for Israel to fight Iran's proxies and to interfere with Iran's attempts to develop nuclear warheads and delivery systems.

For a while, Iran will be militarily weak. That might matter to Iraq, Pakistan, and Kurds, but I doubt any of them is in a position to take advantage even if they would like to.

Effects don't have to be permanent to matter. This has been a big setback for Iran. No amount of cultural chest-thumping about seeing off the Great Satan can change that, but it will make some people feel good for a few weeks. It has also demonstrated a significant Chinese vulnerability (point of pressure).

 

[FJAG]

Is the American approach complex? Seems like it's nothing more than "choke them until they pass out and/or roll over".

Maybe I should have said that the issues that drive the US's approach are complex. I agree, On the surface the US's approach itself seems blunt and/or unsophisticated.

 

[RangerRay]

Who in the US is benefitting financially?

I’m sure Jared, Steve and the Trump spawn have their greasy mitts in there…

 

[GK .Dundas]

Maybe I should have said that the issues that drive the US's approach are complex. I agree, On the surface the US's approach itself seems blunt and/or unsophisticated.

At the moment based on what I see , I'm beginning to suspect you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in this current administration.
Who could spell sophistication much less practice it in any form.
Unless you count Ponzi schemes of course.

 

[Baz]

Hasn’t this been characteristic of a lot of Trump’s actions. He has tapped into a feeling that a lot of the old ways of doing things are broken, a feeling that is not without merit. But even though he has broad support, he doesn’t actually have a better way of doing things.

In doing so, has he squandered an opportunity to deal with Iran?