Iran Super Thread- Merged

[jollyjacktar]

That was careless of them.  ;D

 

[57Chevy]

Quote from article:
"This caused damage to the facilities in Isfahan, particularly to the elements we believe were involved in storage of raw materials," said one military intelligence source."


IMO the explosion may not have actually affected the uranium enrichment facility. (Centrifuges)

Here's why,

Natanz is a hardened Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) covering 100,000 square meters that is built 8 meters underground and protected by a concrete wall 2.5 meters thick, itself protected by another concrete wall. In 2004, the roof was hardened with reinforced concrete and covered with 22 meters of earth.

 

[cupper]

The last thing they heard before the Boom?

OOPS!

 

[a_majoor]

Editorial from Investor's Business Daily:

http://news.investors.com/Article.aspx?id=593823&p=2

Whoever's Behind Sabotage, Attacks In Iran: Keep It Up
Posted 12/05/2011 06:57 PM ET

Proper Response: Iran's military bases are blowing up and its nuclear scientists are dying early. Who's responsible? Hard to tell. But it appears someone recognizes that Tehran is at war with civilization and is fighting back.

In the last two years, there have been more than two dozen mysterious explosions at Iranian military facilities, including one last week that the New York Times characterized as a "major setback for Iran's most advanced long-range missile program."

Many of Iran's nuclear scientists have also been terminated under similarly peculiar circumstances. They've been "assassinated" by masked motorcycle riders who attach magnetic bombs to their cars, common car bombs, radioactive poisoning and other clandestine-looking attacks. There have also been a few "accidental" deaths among the scientists.

Additional plagues that have afflicted Tehran's nuclear weapons program include the Stuxnet cyberworm that sent centrifuges out of control, and a covert campaign that, according to the Los Angeles Times, has supplied it with "faulty parts, plans or software."

Who's behind the apparent sabotage?

Some say the U.S. and Israel's Mossad have been working together to derail Tehran's nuclear weapons ambitions. Others suspect European involvement, either alone or in association with the U.S. and/or Israel.

Given the nature of the attacks and the idiosyncracies of a world that indulges rogue nations such as Iran and loathes open and respectable nations such as Israel and the U.S, it's impossible to know.

But we say: Whoever you are, please keep it up.

Iran is neither an ally nor a benign nation that doesn't need to be watched. It is run by a militant regime and its president is an Islamist who has made it clear that the destruction of Israel is one of Tehran's ultimate goals.

A cabal of religious clerics — the mullahs — rule behind the scenes and have trafficked heavily in both domestic and international terrorism.

The reality is Iran has been at war with the U.S. since radicals invaded the U.S. embassy in 1979 and took Americans hostage. A new generation of radicals just last week overran the British Embassy in Tehran.

In between these acts of war, Iran has supported and armed terrorists in Iraq who have killed American soldiers; attacked Israel through surrogates Hezbollah, Hamas and a number of other Palestinian groups; shipped weapons to Afghanistan and trained the Taliban there; and plotted to assassinate Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the U.S. on American soil.

The Iranian government has been designated as a state sponsor of terrorism by the State Department since 1984 and "remained the most active state sponsor of terrorism in 2010."

The regime has not only serially ignored the many United Nations sanctions aimed at stopping it from becoming a nuclear arms proliferator, it has taunted the U.N. and the West over those sanctions.

Clearly this is not a government that should be allowed to acquire the power and status that a nuclear weapons arsenal would provide. It is a government that needs to be brought down and replaced with one dedicated to peace abroad and freedom at home.

While the long-term goal is regime change — provided Iran isn't plunged into an Islamist winter — the immediate priority is to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear power. If that requires an outright military attack, then the West has to accept that and respond decisively.

In the meantime, though, it's comforting to see that someone is softening up the inside.

 

[OldSolduer]

Crazy thought here - hear me out:

What if elements within the Iranian government itself is blowing these things up?

:Tin-Foil-Hat:

 

[a_majoor]

Michael Ledeen has floated that idea, as well as this being the work of the Green Revolution. Internal dissent is probably the best way to crack the problem, but it needs to have the classical external support and safe area to become a successful insurgency; neither of which seem to be offered at the present time.

 

[TN2IC]

No Fly Zone: Iran shoots down US drone

Try not to laugh at this quack job   ;D

 

[a_majoor]

More on the internal factor:

http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2011/12/14/whos-really-blowing-up-iran/?print=1

Who’s REALLY Blowing Up Iran?

Posted By Michael Ledeen On December 14, 2011 @ 7:37 pm In Uncategorized | 1 Comment

It just has to be Israel, according to the pundit class.  You know, that warmonger Netanyahu.  Or maybe it’s us.  Maybe it’s Obama, who after all killed bin Laden and Qadaffi, toppled Mubarak and bin Ali, and has proclaimed that “Assad must go.” Who else could be behind the “mysterious” wave of assassination, sabotage and explosions all over the country, from military bases to factories, from pipelines carrying natural gas to the Turks to automobiles in downtown Tehran carrying nuclear physicists to or from work?

Until recently, I was the only one writing about the systematic campaign of sabotage.  Now it’s all the rage.

The latest attack [1] against a major Iranian target came a few days ago against a plant that manufactures “special steel” that is used, inter alia, for nose cones and other parts of missiles.  It’s the fourth major attack in the past couple of months, three of which you’ve probably read about, and one which has largely escaped notice.  The three you know are the steel plant three days ago, the monster blast at Karaj on November 12th, and the explosion on November 28th at a military complex at Isfahan.  The one you didn’t hear about  took place on yet another military facility in Khorramabad, near the Iraqi border, a couple of days after Karaj.

And then there are “minor” events, such as a couple of Basij gunned down in Balouchistan the other day.

Before we get to the whys and wherefores, a bit of detail:  the huge detonation at Karaj, which, as I have explained, surprised the attackers and distorted our understanding.  The operation was aimed at the Revolutionary Guards Corps, specifically at General Hassan Tehrani Moghadam, who was both the architect of the national missile program and one of the nastiest officials in that legendarily nasty organization.  The attackers did not know that there was a large quantity of rocket fuel on the base that day (which was the reason Moghadam was there).  The special fuel came from North Korea, and it was supposed to double tne range of Iran’s missiles.  The explosion that killed Moghadam and scores of his comrades ignited the rocket fuel, with dramatic results.  To date, 377 dead have been reported to the supreme leader’s office.  Among the dead are the attackers–they couldn’t escape the big explosion–and at least four North Korean officials, who were there for the celebration.

The attackers came from the internal opposition, and so far as I know they had no ties to any foreign anything, not a foreign intelligence service, not a foreign military organization, not a foreign government.

Of course, as always with things Iranians, you’ve got to caveat what you think you know.  It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been misinformed.  But, on the other hand, I’ve been a lonely voice for quite a while, saying that the opposition (call it the Green Movement, for lack of an updated logo) would become more violent, that the movement was, if anything, more powerful than it was at the time of the big demonstrations a year and two years ago, and that the regime was full of opposition sympathizers and collaborators.

Because it’s obvious that whoever’s blowing up Iran, they’ve got a lot of help from some very important insiders.  Don’t take it from me;  ask Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  He knows that if his enemies can blow up those installations, they can blow up most anything.  Of late, Khamenei hasn’t been particularly active in public events.  Like his buddy, Hezbollah chief Nasrullah, he’s keeping his head down and his profile low.

Not that Khamenei has taken vows of solitude and silence.  He’s fired several top Revolutionary Guards generals and colonels.  Al Arabiya  and other lovers of fairy tales would have us believe that Khamenei was the target [2] of the Karaj bombing, and therefore he purged the Guards.  But Khamenei wasn’t the target (there was no reason to believe he would attend the ceremony;  after all, he didn’t even show up for the inauguration of the Bushehr nuclear plant), and while some of the Guards were indeed fired because of the bombings–they came from the counter-intelligence and “defense” organizations who are supposed to protect such facilities–others were fired because of their involvement in the burgeoning financial scandal.  Other “analysts” suggest that Khamenei’s son had joined President Ahmadinejad in trying to kill the old man, but there is nothing to it.  Ahmadinejad might well want Khamenei to reach paradise with all due speed, but he wasn’t involved in this affair.

The sources upon whom I rely for such information tell me there is more to come, and I’m sure that the supreme leader believes just that.  He may not know the provenance of the army amassed against him and his regime, and he may well convince himself, as our own entrail readers have convinced themselves, that he is under siege from the satanic forces in Washington and Jerusalem.  But I don’t believe it.  Maybe–probably, even-Stuxnet.  I don’t think the Greens are up to that one.  Maybe, if you insist, some of the assassinations of the physicists, although I rather suspect they were suspected of disloyalty and were rubbed out by the regime.

But this is a major campaign, and I think it represents the revenge of the Iranian people against their torturers, murderers and oppressors.

Who could blame them?

Article printed from Faster, Please!: http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen

URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2011/12/14/whos-really-blowing-up-iran/

URLs in this post:

[1] The latest attack: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4160500,00.html

[2] Khamenei was the target: http://kleinonline.wnd.com/2011/12/13/reporters-notebook-4-iran/

 

[a_majoor]

More reports of explosions. No links or second sources, however:

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2011/12/20/wow-theyre-still-blowing-up-iran/

Wow, They’re Still Blowing Up Iran

Two more explosions today.  One at the big refinery in Isfahan, the other at the very important Revolutionary Guards base in Kerman, which is the headquarters for the RG’s operations in the East (think Afghanistan, etc.).

I don’t have casualty figures yet, but the Kerman blast was a biggie.

I am told that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei hasn’t made a public appearance in more than two weeks.  I don’t have any way to check this, but he certainly hasn’t been hogging the spotlight of late.  That role is being played by the Iranian currency, the rial, which is in the same death spiral as the regime.  It’s dropped from 1300-and-change to the dollar to 1500-plus in a couple of weeks.  Maybe Khamenei doesn’t want to talk about the resounding success of his regime?

Ledeen's theory is these activities are the work of the "Green Revoution", since their calls for help went unheeded after the last election. Most people would believe this is the work of the Mossad or CIA, or perhaps another "black" outfit. The story, when it comes out, will be very interesting.

 

[a_majoor]

Sanctions are starting to work, and may be the cause of the downfall when the Iranian economy collapses:

http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2012/01/02/iran-in-convulsion-the-death-spiral-continues/?print=1

Iran in Convulsion (the death spiral continues)
Posted By Michael Ledeen On January 2, 2012 @ 8:51 pm In Uncategorized | No Comments

Big news today from Iran, confirming once again that the hapless regime in Tehran proceeds down its death spiral. The first is the spectacular collapse of the national currency, which has lost 35% of its value since September. The second headline, in an extraordinary press conference by the effective commander of the revolutionary guards, is the admission that the incarcerated leaders of the green movement have so much powerful support that the regime dares not arrest them.

The crash of the rial him has been linked to the latest round of sanctions, the ones aimed against the Iranian central bank. These are, at least for the moment, unilateral American sanctions, but their import is global, since they are aimed at anyone doing business in Iran’s oil sector. Those transactions invariably go through the central bank, and the American sanctions confront would-be purchasers of Iranian crude oil with an unpleasant choice: either do business with America or do business with Iran.

The ayatollahs, in their usual blustery way, have pooh-poohed the effect of the sanctions, insisting that Iran is so strong that even such harsh measures will have little effect.  But nobody in Iran believes that.  There are long lines at the money changers, and one leading government supporter puts the matter in chilling perspective [1]:  Iranian industry “cannot continue to exist” [2] with the rial at today’s level.

As the Washington Post’s man in Tehran says, [3] this is a devastating blow to the regime, both because it further exposes their inability to cope with the Great Satan—whose destruction, after all, is the core mission of the Islamic Republic—and because the Iranian people know that their oppressors are making  out like bandits, as Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen explains [4]:

The 39 percent difference between the central bank’s official rate and market rates on Dec. 21 was the largest in almost two decades, economists in Tehran and Washington said in interviews.

U.S. Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen said the gap between the two rates has provided an arbitrage opportunity exploited by officials and businesses affiliated with the IRGC, the elite military arm that’s under international sanctions for suspected nuclear weapons work and terrorism. They are among regime elements able to obtain foreign currency at the favorable official exchange rate and sell it for a profit in exchange bureaus at the market rate, he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in written testimony Dec. 1.

“Ordinary Iranians are urgently seeking out foreign currency such as dollars or euros for safety, yet they are having trouble accessing hard currency, and when they can, they have to pay the unofficial market rate,” said Cohen, the Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

There are stories from Tehran about people desperately trying to buy commodities, from gold to steel,  about people selling cars and motorcycles to get cash they can convert to hard currency, and, inevitably, about people offering their kidneys for sale (a story we’ve heard about desperate people everywhere from Africa to China.  Is it true?).

So the regime is failing to meet the basic needs of the Iranian people (nothing really new there; strikers at the Shiraz Telecommunications Factory haven’t been paid for 26 months), and the people don’t like it.

This debacle coincides with an amazing confession of weakness from the highest level of the regime:  Ali Saeedi is the supreme leader’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards, and since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei commands the Guards, Saeedi’s words are authoritative.  Asked why Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi–the two Green Movement leaders who have been held in isolation for more than ten months—Saeedi publicly stated that it can’t be done, because the two have such powerful support. The opposition leaders can’t be prosecuted, he said [5],  “because they have supporters and followers” as well as “a few turban-heads [clerics] who continue to back elements within the sedition.”

Indeed, Karroubi’s wife has been released from captivity, and she communicates her husband’s thoughts to the Green Movement.  Most recently, this consisted of instructions to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for March.  This is yet another direct challenge to Khamenei, who has always boasted (often falsely) that Iranian elections produce huge turnouts.

Those who believe the Green Movement has been crushed need to reflect on these developments, which seem to me to prove the opposite:  the regime fears the movement, doesn’t dare take decisive action against its leaders, and faces further protests against a background of mounting failure.

And yet, Khamenei’s killers continue to attack us in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we still have not openly supported his opponents, any more than we have supported Assad’s opponents in Syria.  How many Americans have to die at the hands of this wicked regime before we help the Iranian and Syrian people put an end to their long national agony?

Article printed from Faster, Please!: http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen

URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2012/01/02/iran-in-convulsion-the-death-spiral-continues/

URLs in this post:

[1] one leading government supporter puts the matter in chilling perspective: http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/1/2/the-latest-from-iran-2-january-the-currency-is-falling.html
[2] Iranian industry “cannot continue to exist”: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=42914
[3] the Washington Post’s man in Tehran says,: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/irans-rial-slides-under-latest-us-sanctions/2012/01/02/gIQAHX8MWP_story.html
[4] Undersecretary David Cohen explains: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-30/iran-regime-profiting-from-currency-decline-u-s-treasury-says.html
[5] The opposition leaders can’t be prosecuted, he said: http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2012/jan/03/3436

 

[HavokFour]

UK signals ready to use force to keep Strait open​

Source

(Reuters) - Britain on Thursday signaled its readiness to use military force if necessary to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, warning Iran not to miscalculate over the West's determination to prevent disruption to the key shipping route.

Iran threatened last week to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if foreign sanctions were imposed on its crude exports over its nuclear ambitions, a move that could trigger military conflict with economies dependent on Gulf oil.

"Alongside the U.S. 5th Fleet in the Gulf, we have naval assets, we have mine counter-measures capability, we have a frigate present there, and we are an integrated part of the allied naval task force in the Gulf and one of the missions of that task force is to ensure that those shipping lanes remain open," British Defence Secretary Philip Hammond told Sky News.

Iran had made similar threats before, but "there should be no miscalculation by the Iranians about the importance that the international community attaches to keeping the Straits of Hormuz open," Hammond said, speaking from Washington where he has gone for talks with his U.S. counterpart Leon Panetta.

Fears of supply disruptions due to rising tensions between the West and Iran have sent oil prices higher.

"Any attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz would be illegal and we need to send a very clear message to Iran that we are determined that the straits should remain open," Hammond said.

Britain's Royal Navy participates in the Combined Maritime Forces, a U.S.-led, Bahrain-based naval flotilla drawn from 25 nations whose missions include counter-piracy, counter-terrorism and security in the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz was one of the world's great commercial arteries and its closure would have very significant consequences for the economies of the world, Hammond said.

He said in a speech in Washington earlier that any attempt by Iran to close the strait would fail.

OLIVE BRANCH

At the same time, Hammond held out an olive branch to Iran by urging it to return to negotiations to find a peaceful solution to its nuclear dispute with the West.

The West suspects Iran of seeking to develop a nuclear bomb although Tehran insists its nuclear program is peaceful.

The last round of talks between Iran and six major powers, including Britain, in Istanbul a year ago, got nowhere. Turkey delivered a Western offer for a resumption to Tehran on Thursday and expressed hope they could restart soon.

Britain shut Iran's embassy in London and expelled all its staff after the British Embassy in Tehran was attacked last November by a crowd angry at British sanctions. Britain also closed its Tehran embassy and evacuated its staff.

Hammond, appointed to the job last October, made his first trip to Washington as defence secretary as President Barack Obama unveiled a new defence strategy in line with Pentagon plans to cut spending after a decade of war.

Hammond said there was a "clear view both in the UK and the U.S. and indeed in many other allied countries that we will be seeking to avoid prolonged boots-on-the-ground engagements ... of the type that we had in Iraq and that we currently have in Afghanistan (and) that we should invest more in prevention."

"At the same time, of course, the U.S. has to have an eye on the emerging strength of China as a new major military power," he said.

(Reporting by Adrian Croft; Editing by Mohammed Abbas)

 

[57Chevy]

                      From the Huffington Post and shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Various Iran War Games videos at link

UK Warns Iran Over Strait Of Hormuz Threat
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/05/uk-warns-iran-over-strait_n_1186686.html

LONDON -- Britain's defense secretary warned Iran Thursday that any attempt to block the key global oil passageway the Strait of Hormuz would be illegal and unsuccessful – hinting at a robust international response.

During his first visit to the Pentagon for talks with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Philip Hammond told the Atlantic Council in Washington that the presence of British and American naval ships in the Persian Gulf would ensure the route is kept open for trade.

Iran has threatened to close the route in possible retaliation to new U.S. and European economic sanctions, a tactic the U.S. already has said it would not tolerate.

About one-sixth of the world's oil passes on tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and analysts have warned the price of Brent crude could temporarily jump to as high as $210 if the strait is closed.

"Disruption to the flow of oil through Strait of Hormuz would threaten regional and global economic growth. Any attempt by Iran to do this would be illegal and unsuccessful," said Hammond, who was appointed as Britain's top defense minister in October.

U.S. officials have said the Navy's Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, is prepared to defend the shipping route.

Britain has already downgraded ties with Iran following a major attack on its embassy in Tehran in November, which it insists was sanctioned by the country's ruling elite.

In response, Britain pulled all of its diplomats out of Iran and expelled Iranian diplomats from U.K. soil.

Though Hammond did not specifically threaten a military response if Iran blocks the movement of oil tankers, he warned Tehran that both British and U.S. forces would be close at hand.

"It is in all our interests that the arteries of global trade are kept free, opening and running," Hammond said. "For example, our joint naval presence in the Arabian Gulf, something our regional partners appreciate, is key to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for international trade."

The U.S. and the 27-nation EU have both imposed sanctions against Iran over its contentious nuclear program, which the West insists is aimed at producing atomic weapons. Iran denies the charge, claiming the program aims to generate civilian electricity and produce medical radioisotopes needed to treat cancer patients.

"My working assumption is that they are working flat out" to produce a nuclear weapon, Hammond said during a question session at the Atlantic Council. However, he also insisted that Britain "would not be in favor of a pre-emptive strike on Iran."

 

[ht90]

This is starting to sound more and more like something big is going to happen... :facepalm:

 

[The Bread Guy]

Stephen Harper has called the escalating standoff between Iran and the West the greatest threat to world peace. The prime minister offered that assessment of the growing tensions in the Persian Gulf during an interview Thursday on an Alberta radio program. "Your listeners should be under no illusion, Iran is a very serious threat to international peace and security. In my judgment, it is the world's most serious threat to international peace and security," Harper said during an appearance on the Rutherford Show, an Alberta-wide radio call-in program. Harper also said he has no doubt Iran wants a nuclear weapon and would be prepared to use one ....

The Canadian Press, 5 Jan 12

A Federal Court judge has temporarily halted the deportation of the mother of an alleged former employee of Iran's nuclear program, after both women defected and fled to Canada. A Jan. 4 decision by Justice Michel Shore, posted on the Federal Court website, grants a stay of execution on an immigration removal order of the unnamed woman, pending a judicial review of her case. The woman's daughter claims to have been an employee of the state organization responsible for Iran's controversial nuclear program, which many fear is developing weapons as well as energy-producing capabilities. Shore's order says that "the controversy in regard to Iran's nuclear program and intentions have a direct (internal and external) bearing on this case." ....

CBC.ca, 5 Jan 12

 

[Old Sweat]

While highly speculative, the story from the National Post's website, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act, does provide a scenario which could appear attractive to the Iranian regime. It does make a certain amount of sense as an explanation of the current round of sabre rattling.

A secret nuclear test could be Iran’s trump card in Strait of Hormuz showdown: Goodspeed analysis

Peter Goodspeed Jan 6, 2012 – 10:56 AM ET | Last Updated: Jan 6, 2012 12:59 PM ET

Iran’s ultimate trump card in its current showdown with the international community isn’t merely to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the world’s oil supply – it is to secretly test a nuclear device.

By dramatically ending the guessing game over their nuclear intentions, Iran’s leaders could bolster their political position at home — just in time for parliamentary elections in March — while transforming the regional military balance.

Any kind of nuclear test, similar to North Korea’s ambiguous 2006 one megaton explosion, could give the Iranians exactly what they want – an uncertain standoff that will pre-empt any conventional attacks by its enemies.

Iran’s bluster about closing the Strait of Hormuz is really more diversion than danger. Any move to choke off oil shipments would leave Iran utterly isolated on the world stage and could trigger a conventional conflict that Iran can’t possibly win. An Iranian attack on an oil tanker or a U.S. Navy ship would be an open invitation to a massive counterattack that would lay waste to Iran’s air defence systems in a matter of days, if not hours.

That in turn would leave Iran’s nuclear program vulnerable to repeated attacks by U.S. or Israeli aircraft. Simply laying mines in the Strait could trigger a similar response, being regarded by the rest of the world as an act of war that justifies a massive military response.

In any conventional conflict, Iran is at a distinct disadvantage. Despite last week’s carefully choreographed display of anti-ship missiles and attack boats during 10 days of naval war games, Iran lacks a modern navy or air force. Tehran never really rebuilt its conventional armed forces after the 1979 Iranian Revolution deposed the Shah. It relies extensively on equipment the Shah bought more than 30 years ago.


During the Iran-Iraq War, when Tehran had to resort to using children as human mine sweepers, it tried unsuccessfully to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic and damaged a U.S. guided missile frigate, the USS Samuel B. Roberts with a mine. The U.S. response was to launch Operation Praying Mantis, the largest U.S. naval engagement since World War Two, in which U.S. forces simultaneously attacked Iran’s oil export platforms, destroyed an Iranian frigate, a gunboat and three speed boats.

The attack was so devastating it pushed Iran to end its eight-year war with Iraq.

Iran doesn’t want to see history repeat itself. In fact that is one of the main reasons it is seeking nuclear weapons. Iran’s ayatollahs firmly believe a nuclear deterrent can make up for the weakness of their conventional forces and will force the rest of the world to treat them with a little more caution.

So, like North Korea before it, Iran may be rushing right now to prepare even the smallest of nuclear test explosions, in an effort to shift the international debate on what to do with Iran to an entirely different plane. Just two weeks ago U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta predicted Iran could have nuclear weapons in “probably about a year . . . perhaps a little less”. About the same time, Washington’s Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre published a report that predicted: “If Iran were to now make an all-out effort to acquire nuclear weapons, it could probably do so in two to six months.”

That timeline could be sped up considerably, if Iran has an as-yet undetected clandestine nuclear enrichment facility, the study said.

Don’t be surprised to wake up some morning soon to hear Iran has gone ahead with a nuclear test and is suddenly ready to reopen diplomatic talks with its critics.

National Post

 

[Rifleman62]

Any kind of nuclear test, similar to North Korea’s ambiguous 2006 one megaton explosion, could give the Iranians exactly what they want – an uncertain standoff that will pre-empt any conventional attacks by its enemies.

Possibly the world has learned it's lesson that sitting on your hands leads to more problems.

Take the risk that Iran has set off it's one and only devise and strike very hard and fast. Is that the reason for the saber rattling by GB, Canada and the USA?

 

[57Chevy]

Who's to say that they don't already have Nuclear Weapons.

According to this article shared with provisions of The Copyright Act and
published by The Washington Times in Oct 2011, it suggests that they do.


Washington Times makes it official: Iran already nuclear armed
Sean Osborne
http://homelandsecurityus.com/archives/5304

30 October 2011: Last Thursday, 27 October 2011, The Washington Times published an article written by the pseudonym and former-CIA mole within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard corps (IRGC) ‘Reza Khalili.’ The article, “KAHLILI: Iran Already Has Nuclear Weapons,” should come as no surprise to long-time readers of the Northeast Intelligence Network. I began reporting the same information back in March 2005 with updates and additional information published in 2006, 2007, 2008 and then in 2009 with my *2008 report carried by Canada Free Press. Not to steal any thunder from Reza Kahlili’s report, but the Northeast Intelligence Network was ahead of the curve on the nuclear-armed Iran issue by a whopping six years, or just enough time to put the finishing touches on a working warhead design to mount on a validated ballistic missile delivery system.

Kahlili’s report provides several paragraphs of necessary background information on the Iranian nuclear weapons program given the acuteness of the American public’s attention deficit disorder. Apparently most of us believed our Bush Administration’s stated position that Iran under an apocalyptic-minded “Twelver” regime would never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapons production capability. In November 2008 a majority of American’s opted for “change you can believe in” and the Obama Administration’s pledge that sanctions along with our allies nuclear non-proliferation regime was up to the task.

Americans were wrong on both counts. Kahlili reveals in this article that former US Air Force Captain Mathew Nasuti attended a U.S. State Department briefing in March 2008 in which the briefer asserted it was “common knowledge” that Iran had “acquired tactical nuclear weapons from one or more of the former Soviet republics.” Oh, you mean like the Kh-55 cruise missiles with their 200kT nuclear warheads smuggled out of the Ukraine? Kahlili also reports that Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer of “Able Danger” fame said his sources reveal that Iran has ” two workable nuclear warheads.”

What amazes me is that it took this long, six full years, for an American mainstream newspaper to finally publish something more than prima facia evidence of a clear and present Iranian nuclear threat to these United States. Remember, Iran has been at war with the United States since the current regime of Ayatollah’s invaded our Embassy in Tehran 32 years ago. What will amaze me even further is if the Obama Administration will actually act in the defense of the United states and our allies against this Iranian threat. If only a true Ronald Reagan-minded Conservative with the testicular fortitude to act were present and accounted for we might have a fighting chance before an Iranian nuke turns off our electrical grid.
                            __________________________________________________


*2008 report carried by Canada Free Press


Iran Launches Space Vehicle
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/4520
18 AUGUST 2008: Yesterday Iran sent into earth orbit it’s “Safir” (Emissary/Ambassador) satellite launch vehicle (SLV). According to some uncorroborated reports the sudden launch caught Western intelligence agencies, the U.S. and Israel in particular, by surprise.

The launch vehicle is known as the IRILV (Islamic Republic of Iran Launch Vehicle) and is assessed by many to be an Iranian Shahab 5/6 ICBM with a projected range of 5,000 to 7,000 km (3,000-4,300 miles). As a suborbital ICBM this launch vehicle places all major European capital cities easily within range of an Iranian nuclear warhead, and, theoretically, as an orbital warhead launch vehicle virtually any location on earth could be targeted by a programed de-orbiting of the warhead. The Iranian payload launched on Sunday is reported to be orbiting the earth at an atltitude of 400 miles once every four hours.

The launch was conducted on the birthday of the 8th century Shi’a Imam Mahdi who disapeared as a boy and who the current regime is commited to hastening his return as their Islamic messiah. Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad is reported to have personally conducted the launch countdown.

 

[GAP]

Turkey and Iran carve up a ruptured Arab world
Many analysts say the Middle East is the focus of a geopolitical power struggle between the United States and Iran. That misses the primary thread of events – namely, the ongoing soft partition of the Arab republics between Turkey and Iran, with Turkey the stronger power.
Article Link
By Jason Pack and Martin van Creveld / January 6, 2012

During the last decade many right-wing American and Israeli analysts have described the geostrategic struggles unfolding in the Middle East as a new “cold war” pitting the United States against Shiite Iran. They have warned of an Arab “Shiite crescent” – stretching from Lebanon to Iraq – connected to Iran via ties of religion, commerce, and geostrategy.

The new year has started with an attempted Shiite power play by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to dominate the government, and an Iranian demonstration of missile and nuclear fuel rod capacity coupled with threats to close the Straits of Hormuz if Iranian oil exports are blocked.

These events can be interpreted as ample evidence of Iranian expansionism, combined with fears that Iran will obtain a nuclear weapon, rendering its present regime and regional clients untouchable.

What this view of the Middle East overlooks is the fact that both the US and Iran are mired in internal political and economic difficulties. Simultaneously, inside the region, both are being outmaneuvered by an ascendant Turkey.

Moreover, Western observers have missed the primary thread of events – namely, the ongoing asymmetric Turkish-Iranian soft partition of the Arab republics. Concomitantly, the American position as regional hegemon is vanishing. Today, only the Arab monarchies and Israel continue to look to the US as their primary patron.

To investigate how these changing dynamics are seen by actors within the region, Mr. Pack spent his Christmas holidays in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq.

Following the US withdrawal from Iraq, KRG officials bemoaned their need of a regional patron to protect them from dominance by Baghdad. Landlocked Iraqi Kurdistan also needs a conduit to export its oil to the West. The only country that can fulfill both roles is Turkey. That is why KRG officials, instead of supporting their ethnic brethren inside Turkey, have often sided with Ankara against the Kurdish separatist PKK.

All this explains why a bombing on Dec. 28, in which the Turks killed 35 Kurdish smugglers whom they mistook for terrorists, provoked little outrage in Iraqi Kurdistan. On the streets of Erbil there are no signs of protests against Turkey. Instead, one notices Turkey’s ubiquitous presence in the form of construction, investment, consumer goods, and tourists.

Should more pipelines leading from Iraqi Kurdistan to the Mediterranean via Turkey be built, the result will be the de facto creation of an Iraqi-Kurdish buffer state. Dependent on Turkey for its survival, such a state would also form a barrier to Iranian (or American, or PKK) interference in Turkish affairs.

In the southern part of Iraq, the situation is just the opposite. There, a Shiite Arab buffer state, buttressed by Iran as a bulwark against Turkish, American, or Saudi encroachments, is being created. The last two weeks’ events have removed any doubt that Prime Minister Maliki is “Iran’s man” in Baghdad.
Yet despite this de facto partitioning of Iraq over the last month, Turkey and Iran are not challenging each other’s spheres of influence. Thus, Iraq has reverted to its traditional position as the Poland of the Middle East.

In post-Arab Spring North Africa, too, Turkey and Iran have essentially partitioned the resurgent Islamist movements between themselves. The Turks support the victorious “moderate” Islamists from Tunisia to Egypt. Iran backs the Salafist spoilers, even though they are Sunni.

In the Egyptian and Tunisian elections, and in Libya’s inter-militia civil strife, both wings of Islamist opinion have supported each other against Western-backed secularists and neo-liberals. Since North Africa lacks indigenous Shiite populations and the “moderate” Islamists have now emerged as the main players in the region, it is Sunni Turkey, along with Qatar, that appears to be the rising political and commercial patron in North Africa.
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[tomahawk6]

New Iranian nuclear underground facility complete with SAM's.

 

[vonGarvin]

I have to admit that I'm all rather confused as to *why* Iran is doing all of this.  What level of a Maslowian heirarchy of needs are they trying to fulfil by doing all of this?  Is the Iranian government just seeking to remain in power and is therefore presenting "us" as a legitimate threat?  If they wish to be a regional power, I get that, but if they want to do more than just secure their borders, why would they seek The Bomb?