Iran Super Thread- Merged

[PrairieFella]

Anyone have any idea how much routine small vessel traffic there is in the strait? Fishing, local coastal trade etc? I’m wondering if there’s a lot of small routine traffic that iAd hoc minelayers can blend into. I imagine it doesn’t take much of a vessel to drop a couple turds in the seaways.

And all it takes is one minstrike to halt shipping for a long time. The same concept as dummy fields.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Anyone have any idea how much routine small vessel traffic there is in the strait? Fishing, local coastal trade etc? I’m wondering if there’s a lot of small routine traffic that iAd hoc minelayers can blend into. I imagine it doesn’t take much of a vessel to drop a couple turds in the seaways.

I've sailed through the Strait of Hormuz a couple of times. There are defined shipping lanes that deep seas stay in. Unlike, let's say, the Strait of Malacca, you don't see much in the way of small coastal traffic in the shipping lanes themselves as small vessels will draw the attention of the various Naval Task Forces operating in the area, who will probably board them, under the auspices of maritime security.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy patrols in small FIACs though. There are a couple of spots where they make their presence known and they have ongoing disputes with their neighbors.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I've sailed through the Strait of Hormuz a couple of times. There are defined shipping lanes that deep seas stay in. Unlike, let's say, the Strait of Malacca, you don't see much in the way of small coastal traffic in the shipping lanes themselves as small vessels will draw the attention of the various Naval Task Forces operating in the area, who will probably board them, under the auspices of maritime security.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy patrols in small FIACs though. There are a couple of spots where they make their presence known and they have ongoing disputes with their neighbors.

Now there is an acronym I haven't heard in a while...

 

[Czech_pivo]

I've sailed through the Strait of Hormuz a couple of times. There are defined shipping lanes that deep seas stay in. Unlike, let's say, the Strait of Malacca, you don't see much in the way of small coastal traffic in the shipping lanes themselves as small vessels will draw the attention of the various Naval Task Forces operating in the area, who will probably board them, under the auspices of maritime security.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy patrols in small FIACs though. There are a couple of spots where they make their presence known and they have ongoing disputes with their neighbors.

Three cargo ships struck off Iran’s coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz​

3 cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including in Strait of Hormuz
Three cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz

 

[ytz]

Your fundamental assumption isn't particularly strong.

Is it? Why is POTUS telling tankers to simply run the blockade? Why is he offering government backed insurance and naval protection? Why are the G7 and IEA having emergency meetings on coordinated SPR release? Their actions certainly speak to how much they care about oil prices.

I would add to that people's tolerance for higher oil prices is highly dependent on the acceptability of the conflict causing the increases. And given how this particular war is polling, $1/gal more is going to be the end of a few political careers.