PrairieFella
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 3,857
- Points
- 1,110
And all it takes is one minstrike to halt shipping for a long time. The same concept as dummy fields.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 12,318
- Points
- 1,360
I've sailed through the Strait of Hormuz a couple of times. There are defined shipping lanes that deep seas stay in. Unlike, let's say, the Strait of Malacca, you don't see much in the way of small coastal traffic in the shipping lanes themselves as small vessels will draw the attention of the various Naval Task Forces operating in the area, who will probably board them, under the auspices of maritime security.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy patrols in small FIACs though. There are a couple of spots where they make their presence known and they have ongoing disputes with their neighbors.
Halifax Tar
Army.ca Legend
- Reaction score
- 18,204
- Points
- 1,260
Now there is an acronym I haven't heard in a while...
- Reaction score
- 7,102
- Points
- 1,260
Three cargo ships struck off Iran’s coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz
3 cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including in Strait of Hormuz
Three cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz
Is it? Why is POTUS telling tankers to simply run the blockade? Why is he offering government backed insurance and naval protection? Why are the G7 and IEA having emergency meetings on coordinated SPR release? Their actions certainly speak to how much they care about oil prices.
I would add to that people's tolerance for higher oil prices is highly dependent on the acceptability of the conflict causing the increases. And given how this particular war is polling, $1/gal more is going to be the end of a few political careers.
As Iran’s other capabilities are degraded, going harder at shipping is the obvious play. We’ll see more of this. Hormuz is their most potent leverage.
I won’t be surprised to see fiber spool drones employed in the strait. Some of the fiber optic drones used in Ukraine have 50km of cable. They can cover the entire width of the straight with drones that don’t emit or depend on EM if they use those.
- Reaction score
- 7,102
- Points
- 1,260
Again, the goal of Iran is to play the long game (6-8 weeks) and outlast the US
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 29,659
- Points
- 1,260
HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 2,797
- Points
- 1,040
This might be a long one. They're pulling THAAD missiles from South Korea.
It does make me wonder if another country with access to a similar level of drones and missiles decided to try something (like China), how high their chances for success would be now.
It does make me wonder if another country with access to a similar level of drones and missiles decided to try something (like China), how high their chances for success would be now.
At that point he’s just feeding troops to drones.
- Reaction score
- 7,102
- Points
- 1,260
Have a read of the history of how the Greeks managed in the 1919-1920 time period when they tired to hold the Turks coastline
History has a way of repeating itself.
- Reaction score
- 6,529
- Points
- 1,120
Gallipoli anyone....anyone....?
- Reaction score
- 17,179
- Points
- 1,160
My guess is they will grab some of the Islands first.
kkwd
Sr. Member
- Reaction score
- 150
- Points
- 730
Except for unarmoured landing boats, too much time spent on the beach, massive trench systems with dugouts, over the top charges into withering machine gun fire, never ending artillery, lack of surveillance systems to keep an eye on the enemy and none of the modern soldier's equipment.
- Reaction score
- 11,454
- Points
- 1,040
Americans gripe a lot, but have demonstrated high tolerance for wars and the costs and casualties attendant thereto. Their forces go out a lot; it's hard not to notice.
I don't expect governments to entirely ignore surging oil prices; I don't expect Americans to pack it in if gas prices increase by $1 at the pump. They really don't like Iran.
Look how much coast they have to cover. And, things can fly over (and past) landed forces. The only way to practically protect ships is convoys with naval pickets.
Polling mostly disagrees with your assertions here. I suspect your mixing up "Americans" with "Trump voters". Cause even a good chunk of Republicans aren't comfortable with this war. And the majority of Democrats and Independents are opposed.
Yeah. But that requires a fixed launch site. No shoot and scoot. Hope the launch crew is ready to eat a GMLRS.
- Reaction score
- 7,727
- Points
- 1,360
Maybe, maybe not ....
Most Americans say President Trump has not clearly explained U.S. goals in Iran
Six-in-ten expect U.S. military involvement in Iran to go on for an extended period of time
Early polls show doubt about Iran. What comes next?
Below are five charts examining the public's initial reactions to the strikes, the conditions that might shift public opinion, and how uncertainty could shape what comes next
Depends on how many they have left, and then can coordinate targeting and firing for. I'm seeing something in the region of 2000 drones and 500-600 missiles with the launch rates dropping more than 90% since day 1. They had most of their stockpiles and launch systems knocked out, had smaller stockpiles than anticipated, or are holding more in reserve to threaten shipping/infrastructure, or whatever combination there of. Even if they land troops they may figure saving them for infrastructure is a higher priority than hitting troops on the ground (who would hopefully have robust air defence and C-UAS if that happened). Not to say trying to take and hold the Iranian islands or coast is a good idea, or free of danger, but given how much of their potential arsenal they haven't fired (particularly low systems like Shaheds) than it seems like they either don't exist, or are being held back still.
These systems have been publicly revealed recently so they likely don't have mass production up yet, assuming they even are as claimed, or get adopted. But a Chinese startup has supposedly developed the YJK-1000, a $100k USD hypersonic missile, including the entire containerized launch system, 500-1300 km range (more than suitable for Taiwan) but no figures on warhead type or size (assuming smashing a mach stupid missile into the target isn't sufficient already). They also have at least two of their own Shahed clones, Feilong 300D and Loong M9, the Feilong is supposedly only $10k. Given China's production abilities, I can believe it if they built at scale. A million Feilongs would only be about $10 billion, a 100,000 YJK-1000s would be another $10 billion. You won't get that in a year, but even if they've only been secretly stockpiling their own Shahed equivalents they could easily have 10s of thousands or a 100,000+ in the past couple years.
If they build out for say 5 years, could anyone stop waves of 10,000-100,000 drones and hypersonic missiles daily for a week+, to say nothing of their regular cruise/ballistic missile arsenals and regular air attacks. Even as we all complain here about not taking things like air defence seriously enough, I think even we all under appreciate how badly these could potentially scale up. The largest Russian drone attack so far has supposedly been 741. I mentioned in another thread converting an auto plant in Canada if we're facing shutdowns to be a production center for our own equivalent. A car plant can pump out thousands of cars a day. The Alliston plant can pump out 400,000 cars a year. A drone plant of similar scale building Shaheds that are 1/10 the mass utilizing largely civilian electronics (you could add Starlink/Starshield receivers for what, a few hundred dollars each for live control). we may not be able or willing to put that money into it, unless it served as an alliance production center with allied investment, but China's a different story if they decided that was an easier solution. Of course you still need storage, handling, targeting, troops to handle launches, but that's the same as any other system, and you could train infantry to load up Shaheds onto a pneumatic catapult in short order. Long term storage you could swap out warheads as they degrade so long as the airframes and engines hold up.
I think constant air patrols and naval escorts is the only way to secure shipping. Trying to coordinate that before hand with allies would have been beneficial, but it's one area I think it's reasonable to ask for help with even now. It's the lifeline for the Gulf countries and Europe needs safe transit even more than the USA and Canada (we can make bank off high oil prices even if it hurts consumers). If the war is going to continue it's in all our interests to support an escort mission.
If they haven't already been working on it, then if the regime survives they certainly have to look at building autonomous anti-shipping drones. Even shitty ones are adequate to threaten shipping.
