Iran Super Thread- Merged

[PrairieFella]

Anyone have any idea how much routine small vessel traffic there is in the strait? Fishing, local coastal trade etc? I’m wondering if there’s a lot of small routine traffic that iAd hoc minelayers can blend into. I imagine it doesn’t take much of a vessel to drop a couple turds in the seaways.

And all it takes is one minstrike to halt shipping for a long time. The same concept as dummy fields.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Anyone have any idea how much routine small vessel traffic there is in the strait? Fishing, local coastal trade etc? I’m wondering if there’s a lot of small routine traffic that iAd hoc minelayers can blend into. I imagine it doesn’t take much of a vessel to drop a couple turds in the seaways.

I've sailed through the Strait of Hormuz a couple of times. There are defined shipping lanes that deep seas stay in. Unlike, let's say, the Strait of Malacca, you don't see much in the way of small coastal traffic in the shipping lanes themselves as small vessels will draw the attention of the various Naval Task Forces operating in the area, who will probably board them, under the auspices of maritime security.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy patrols in small FIACs though. There are a couple of spots where they make their presence known and they have ongoing disputes with their neighbors.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I've sailed through the Strait of Hormuz a couple of times. There are defined shipping lanes that deep seas stay in. Unlike, let's say, the Strait of Malacca, you don't see much in the way of small coastal traffic in the shipping lanes themselves as small vessels will draw the attention of the various Naval Task Forces operating in the area, who will probably board them, under the auspices of maritime security.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy patrols in small FIACs though. There are a couple of spots where they make their presence known and they have ongoing disputes with their neighbors.

Now there is an acronym I haven't heard in a while...

 

[Czech_pivo]

I've sailed through the Strait of Hormuz a couple of times. There are defined shipping lanes that deep seas stay in. Unlike, let's say, the Strait of Malacca, you don't see much in the way of small coastal traffic in the shipping lanes themselves as small vessels will draw the attention of the various Naval Task Forces operating in the area, who will probably board them, under the auspices of maritime security.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy patrols in small FIACs though. There are a couple of spots where they make their presence known and they have ongoing disputes with their neighbors.

Three cargo ships struck off Iran’s coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz​

3 cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including in Strait of Hormuz
Three cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz

 

[ytz]

Your fundamental assumption isn't particularly strong.

Is it? Why is POTUS telling tankers to simply run the blockade? Why is he offering government backed insurance and naval protection? Why are the G7 and IEA having emergency meetings on coordinated SPR release? Their actions certainly speak to how much they care about oil prices.

I would add to that people's tolerance for higher oil prices is highly dependent on the acceptability of the conflict causing the increases. And given how this particular war is polling, $1/gal more is going to be the end of a few political careers.

 

[brihard]

Three cargo ships struck off Iran’s coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz​

3 cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including in Strait of Hormuz
Three cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz

As Iran’s other capabilities are degraded, going harder at shipping is the obvious play. We’ll see more of this. Hormuz is their most potent leverage.

I won’t be surprised to see fiber spool drones employed in the strait. Some of the fiber optic drones used in Ukraine have 50km of cable. They can cover the entire width of the straight with drones that don’t emit or depend on EM if they use those.

 

[Czech_pivo]

As Iran’s other capabilities are degraded, going harder at shipping is the obvious play. We’ll see more of this. Hormuz is their most potent leverage.

I won’t be surprised to see fiber spool drones employed in the strait. Some of the fiber optic drones used in Ukraine have 50km of cable. They can cover the entire width of the straight with drones that don’t emit or depend on EM if they use those.

Again, the goal of Iran is to play the long game (6-8 weeks) and outlast the US

 

[KevinB]

Again, the goal of Iran is to play the long game (6-8 weeks) and outlast the US

Or POTUS has the Marines land on the Iranian coast….

I’m 50/50 on that

 

[HavokFour]

This might be a long one. They're pulling THAAD missiles from South Korea.

It does make me wonder if another country with access to a similar level of drones and missiles decided to try something (like China), how high their chances for success would be now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/1rqgqch/south_korean_media_published_an_image_yesterday

 

[brihard]

Or POTUS has the Marines land on the Iranian coast….

I’m 50/50 on that

At that point he’s just feeding troops to drones.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Or POTUS has the Marines land on the Iranian coast….

I’m 50/50 on that

Have a read of the history of how the Greeks managed in the 1919-1920 time period when they tired to hold the Turks coastline

History has a way of repeating itself.

 

[NavyShooter]

Gallipoli anyone....anyone....?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

My guess is they will grab some of the Islands first.

 

[kkwd]

Gallipoli anyone....anyone....?

Except for unarmoured landing boats, too much time spent on the beach, massive trench systems with dugouts, over the top charges into withering machine gun fire, never ending artillery, lack of surveillance systems to keep an eye on the enemy and none of the modern soldier's equipment.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Is it? Why is POTUS telling tankers to simply run the blockade? Why is he offering government backed insurance and naval protection? Why are the G7 and IEA having emergency meetings on coordinated SPR release? Their actions certainly speak to how much they care about oil prices.

I would add to that people's tolerance for higher oil prices is highly dependent on the acceptability of the conflict causing the increases. And given how this particular war is polling, $1/gal more is going to be the end of a few political careers.

Americans gripe a lot, but have demonstrated high tolerance for wars and the costs and casualties attendant thereto. Their forces go out a lot; it's hard not to notice.

I don't expect governments to entirely ignore surging oil prices; I don't expect Americans to pack it in if gas prices increase by $1 at the pump. They really don't like Iran.