Iran Super Thread- Merged

[CBH99]

Oh the geopolitics of it all...interesting times indeed!

...

By the way, I haven't seen this posted here yet. But what the actual f**k is this??

 

[ytz]

Trump is supposed to travel to China for a bilateral summit in two weeks. He’s now saying that may be on hold unless China agrees to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump signals possible delay to Beijing summit as U.S. pressures China to help reopen Strait of Hormuz

The remarks came as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng in Paris, paving the way for the summit scheduled for late March.

www.cnbc.com

Some Chinese oil is getting through and they have a substantial reserve. They are also willing to take Russian oil. Why would they sever their ties with Iran? And I suspect he doesn't want to go there and be embarrassed by them laughing off his threats.

… “the war-planning process was not as robust as normal, said one senior US official. The White House sharply downsized its National Security Council over the last year, undercutting the coordinating role that it’s typically played in gathering input from across the government and ensuring any key concerns or considerations don’t fall through the cracks.

“The NSC used to be the final synthesizer before going to deputy or principal meetings for approvals,” the senior US official said of the administration’s internal processes. “Without a real interagency process led by the NSC, the planning falls apart.”

That kinda genius thinking comes from this kind of d*ck riding:

Don't confuse my observations about hardball politics with "don't understand". There are people who worship "interagency" concensus on various matters, and people who figure elections have consequences. The latter are running the administration.

"I know more than the generals."

 

[ytz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2033344185793970543

Oil will be at $120 by week's end and possibly $150 in 2-3 weeks. They might have to add global economic crisis to the Iran War on the To-Do List.

At this point I see no options but spin up more MEUs and an airborne division, seize a bunch of island and hope to force sea control while negotiating. Otherwise, Khomeini can see the flop sweat from there. He knows he can keep the pressure up and Trump will leave. That will make the Gulf States bow to Iran. And have to consider a nuclear armed Iran ramping up proxies.

 

[GR66]

Chinese Oil Imports Through the Strait of Hormuz​

Importance of the Strait of Hormuz​

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil shipments, handling about 20% of the world's oil supply. It is particularly vital for Asian countries, including China, which relies heavily on this route for its energy needs.

China's Oil Dependence​

• China imports approximately 40% to 50% of its seaborne oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The strait is essential for China's energy security, as it accounts for a significant portion of its total oil consumption

Given the above, I would think they'd look pretty seriously at the offer.
Another choice would be to have all their tankers sanctioned so they would be out the 50% that comes through SoH.

And they may decide to wait it out. They've got a $1.2 million barrels in their Strategic Oil Reserve. Just a matter of how low they want to deplete that reserve.

Iran has stated that they are only targeting ships that are related the US/Israel and those nations supporting their attacks. China is not part of that, so their ships will not be targeted. So, if the tankers going to China can safely transit the Straights then why would they need to deploy ships to support the Americans?

[edited for clarity]