Iran Super Thread- Merged

[RangerRay]

I think the only thing that would dislodge the Khomeinists would have been a full scale invasion that would dwarf the invasion of Iraq, with allies. They have solid institutions that go beyond the personalities, especially since the death of the first ayatollah. The institutions of the Islamic Republic need to be uprooted and destroyed. Only a full invasion or large armed popular revolution would come close to accomplishing that.

No western leader would commit to that, especially after the debacle in Iraq.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I think the only thing that would dislodge the Khomeinists would have been a full scale invasion that would dwarf the invasion of Iraq, with allies. They have solid institutions that go beyond the personalities, especially since the death of the first ayatollah. The institutions of the Islamic Republic need to be uprooted and destroyed. Only a full invasion or large armed popular revolution would come close to accomplishing that.

No western leader would commit to that, especially after the debacle in Iraq.

So far ...

 

[ytz]

I think the only thing that would dislodge the Khomeinists would have been a full scale invasion that would dwarf the invasion of Iraq, with allies. They have solid institutions that go beyond the personalities, especially since the death of the first ayatollah. The institutions of the Islamic Republic need to be uprooted and destroyed. Only a full invasion or large armed popular revolution would come close to accomplishing that.

No western leader would commit to that, especially after the debacle in Iraq.

I'm not sure it's that impossible either. Let's not forget, they are so scared of their own people, they considered moving the capital away from Tehran and building a brand new city in the desert. Some kind of maximum pressure sanctions campaign stopping oil. And maybe even some kind of persistent mow the lawn strategy against their missile and nuclear programs might well have worked. But it would require a lot of work to get the Arabs onside and sustained effort over years. Not sure the Americans (least of all Trump) has that kind of patience.

But it's highly likely that they wouldn't have triggered a Strait crisis if they were facing harsh sanctions enforcement. It was probably the attempted decapitation that got them playing for broke.

I also think the IRGC aren't morons. They saw the SPR, the lack of minesweepers and Air Defence and probably decided this was right time to play the maximalist card. They probably can't believe their luck in Tehran.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

At this point arming the people is likley the best option, they don't need to much high tech, rifles, grenades, ammunition and RPG's, throw in some DJI drones as well.

 

[ytz]

At this point arming the people is likley the best option, they don't need to much high tech, rifles, grenades, ammunition and RPG's, throw in some DJI drones as well.

It depends who you arm. Talking about arming the Kurds and Balochis literally triggered centuries old anxiety about Balkanization in every Iranian. They gotta find like some ethnic Persians and train them. That's going to be a long project. Something like that they did in Afghanistan against the Soviets. But also, we know how that went too.....

 

[RangerRay]

After having 30,000 of their mates slaughtered and dodging American/Israeli ordinance, I’m guessing revolutionary fervor has cooled for a while. The regime has shown it will take more than wiping out the entire leadership to back down.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

At this point arming the people is likley the best option, they don't need to much high tech, rifles, grenades, ammunition and RPG's, throw in some DJI drones as well.

To a population that is now galvanized against U.S. strikes on their homeland?

The Iranian people have made it clear in previous reports that they view the Regime and the U.S. through the same lense, and see nothing but ugliness.

The strikes and their associated civilian casualties have created a new generation of "Death to America" chanters, vice a population that was struggling to be pacified.

 

[brihard]

To a population that is now galvanized against U.S. strikes on their homeland?

The Iranian people have made it clear in previous reports that they view the Regime and the U.S. through the same lense, and see nothing but ugliness.

The strikes and their associated civilian casualties have created a new generation of "Death to America" chanters, vice a population that was struggling to be pacified.

I mean, yeah, shit’s gonna happen in war… But right at the start they smoked a girls’ elementary school and killed some 100+ kids. “We’re here to help” will be a tough sell when that’s the start point. Trump told Iranians help was coming, but then just hung out for a couple weeks, and then has not clearly made regime change a war aim. I don’t think many Iranians will be dumb enough to rise up on an assumption of U.S. help through to the end game.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It depends who you arm. Talking about arming the Kurds and Balochis literally triggered centuries old anxiety about Balkanization in every Iranian. They gotta find like some ethnic Persians and train them. That's going to be a long project. Something like that they did in Afghanistan against the Soviets. But also, we know how that went too.....

I suspect the Kurds can get small arms already, not sure about the Balochs. There is already a network formed/forming of ethnic Persians, the questions remains to how best get them arms. Airdrop likley.