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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Given that “Iran doesn’t follow the rules” was one of the predicates for this entire war, and given how utterly predictable closures of the straits been, the abject failure to adequately plan for and safeguard against this is inexcusable. There’s no way the U.S. military didn’t anticipate and plan for this eventuality, so there was a profound decision making failure somewhere in the senior executive.
I do admire the tenacity of some people trying to spin all this as a positive…
 
I do admire the tenacity of some people trying to spin all this as a positive…

It was the same thing when Iraq started going to shit. By 2026, you couldn't find anybody who supported the war or any Americans who helped re-elect Bush.

The only thing interesting here is that people can't hide their past today with social media. Maybe that makes it harder for people to change their minds. There sure are people doubling down despite very credible and knowledgeable ex Republicans (like Jim Mattis for example) calling this a blunder.
 
Wild that Iran can - while getting absolutely pounded - mostly effectively close an international strait and deny innocent passage through same, and force shipping (that it so allows) on a toll basis through its internal waters. And that this can be seen as anything but a major strategic blunder.

The rest of the developed world may indeed have to part of cleaning up this mess, but only because those who made it can’t or won’t.

I struggle with what the rest of us can do.

The USN can't establish positive control of the strait. What exactly would the rest of us be able to do that they can't?

Pretty clear the argument that the rest of us should get involved is so he can others to share the loss with.

The only way out is for some negotiation that includes the Gulf States. And unfortunately having established dominance, Iran is doing to get good terms sooner or later.

If we want Iran to outright lose? Who wants to sign up to deploy back to the sandbox again?
 
If you need me this weekend I'll be stationed close to the TV with a case of beer, secretly hoping for Option 5: All of the above ;)

US said mulling ‘final blow’ options if Iran talks fail, including sending troops to seize key assets​

Axios says possibilities include seizing islands in Strait of Hormuz, blockading ships carrying Iranian oil, sending troops to take regime’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium​


The US is working on options for a “final blow” to Iran that could see American ground troops deployed on Iranian soil, as well as a major bombing effort, the Axios outlet reported Thursday, citing two US officials and two sources with knowledge of the matter.

The sources said that if attempts to negotiate an end to the conflict with Iran do not bear fruit, and the Iranians continue to hamper shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the US could initiate a major strike that would serve a dual purpose — improving the American position in possible further talks with Tehran, and potentially allowing US President Donald Trump to end the war unilaterally with an ostensible victory image.

The officials told Axios that four options are under discussion.

The first would entail seizing or blockading Kharg Island, Iran’s key hub for the export of oil.

A second would be to take Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, which houses Iranian bases and radars that track ships transiting Hormuz, and hosts small boats that can attack civilian ships. Tehran has largely blocked the passage of oil through the vital strait in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks, pushing up global energy prices.

A third possibility would be to invade Abu Musa Island in the eastern Persian Gulf, which gives Iran control over ships leaving the Gulf. The island — and the nearby Greater and Lesser Tunb islands — are held by Iran but claimed by the United Arab Emirates, a key US and Israeli ally.

Finally, the US could simply block or take control of ships exporting Iranian oil.

 
If you need me this weekend I'll be stationed close to the TV with a case of beer, secretly hoping for Option 5: All of the above ;)

US said mulling ‘final blow’ options if Iran talks fail, including sending troops to seize key assets​

Axios says possibilities include seizing islands in Strait of Hormuz, blockading ships carrying Iranian oil, sending troops to take regime’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium ...​

The bingo card is set :)
Don't worry, I'm certain nobody in this administration would ever use insecure comms for secret information.
... again ...
 
If they got into his email, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got into a bunch of other stuff where his email address is the username and the same password was recycled.

Well, considering he apparently wasn't even using 2FA that's probably likely.

Reminds me of that one time Trumps official X account was breached, his password was "maga2020!".
 
Given that “Iran doesn’t follow the rules” was one of the predicates for this entire war, and given how utterly predictable closures of the straits been, the abject failure to adequately plan for and safeguard against this is inexcusable. There’s no way the U.S. military didn’t anticipate and plan for this eventuality, so there was a profound decision making failure somewhere in the senior executive.
Some things that were widely known beforehand:

  • A squeeze on Persian Gulf oil exports doesn't discommode all nations equally. In particular, the US is less affected than most. The degrees of vulnerability could be calculated based on what went where.
  • Any nation willing to attack a few ships can close the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Other exporters would be collectively in the catbird seat if the Strait were effectively closed.
  • The nations most dependent on Gulf oil would be in the most worrisome positions.

I can only wonder what the contingency plans to force Iran to stop attacking shipping are, and whether there are any that actually have a prospect of success. If there aren't really any, and Iran was always likely to go this route, then closure was inevitable. That would reshuffle all calculations.
 
I do admire the tenacity of some people trying to spin all this as a positive…
Ummm...that is not at all what the OP said. He said, and I agree - that this is a failure of command decisions above the military. Having served with the US in echelons above reality my belief is founded on experience.

I admire your predeliction for seeing everything through a partisan lens. Sure does provide a short cut to any conclusion one wishes to jump to
 
Some things that were widely known beforehand:

  • A squeeze on Persian Gulf oil exports doesn't discommode all nations equally. In particular, the US is less affected than most. The degrees of vulnerability could be calculated based on what went where.
  • Any nation willing to attack a few ships can close the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Other exporters would be collectively in the catbird seat if the Strait were effectively closed.
  • The nations most dependent on Gulf oil would be in the most worrisome positions.

I can only wonder what the contingency plans to force Iran to stop attacking shipping are, and whether there are any that actually have a prospect of success. If there aren't really any, and Iran was always likely to go this route, then closure was inevitable. That would reshuffle all calculations.
Right, and the dumb bastards apparently didn’t think of fertilizers, or petrochemical feedstock for generic medications… A failure to view Hormuz through anything but an oil lens is excusable at some levels, but not at the level of those who make decisions about going to war and managing the consequences thereof.
 
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