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Iran Super Thread- Merged

They really might be entirely alone if they decide to put boots in Iran. The Kurds don't want to go round 4 (?) with being left holding the bag.

US-Israeli plan for Kurdish invasion of Iran reportedly collapsed amid leaks, distrust

Well sure. Why would the Kurds want to get screwed over and left hanging again? If the regime collapses I’m sure they’ll happily fight to carve out their territory, but why would they take the risk of kicking things off at the behest of an unreliable partner that cannot be trusted to pull them out of a bad spot?
 
If in the end the investigation shows that a US strike hit the school, there are only two ways it happened. Either it was deliberate, or it was the culmination of a chain of errors.
In a way it was both but not quite the way you put forward.

The targeting cycle for air strikes is a fairly exact process. The results are more than likely one of the following two situations:

1) a target close to the school was the intended target but there was a technical glitch (mechanical or data entry) that caused the bomb to go "off target;" or

2) the school was the target to be hit but an intelligence failure caused the targeting team to evaluate the school as still being a part of the adjacent base without knowing that it had been turned into a school.

From the material in the press to this point, my guess is that it will turn out to be the latter.

🍻
 
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If in the end the investigation shows that a US strike hit the school, there are only two ways it happened. Either it was deliberate, or it was the culmination of a chain of errors.

Keeping this sort of stuff in mind, now try to imagine whether critics' assertions that the US should have tried to build "a coalition" were ever realistic. (Leave aside the time factor and information security risk.) Which ME nations are going to jump into a coalition in which Israel is the second-ranking partner in a war against a majority Muslim country? Which European nations with restless Muslim minorities?
Not just that girls school, but those bombs dropped on their universities too. Again the US and Israel are making the propaganda for them.
 
In a way it was both but not quite the way you put forward.

The targeting cycle for air strikes is a fairly exact process. The results are more than likely one of the following two situations:

1) a target close to the school was the intended target but there was a technical glitch (mechanical or data entry) that caused the bomb to go "off target;" or

2) the school was the target to be hit but an intelligence failure caused the targeting team to evaluate the school as still being a part of the adjacent base without knowing that it had been turned into a school.

From the material in the press to this point, my guess is that it will turn out to be the latter.

🍻

Mistakes happen in war. Even the Iranian people will understand that. It's the absolute lack of contrition and all the other messaging that routinely makes it sound like they are at war with the Iranian people not just the regime that is the problem.

Also, there's a disturbing pattern here where Trump disavows a certain target set and then Israel bombs it. Makes it look like Israel is the lead partner. Not the US.

Not just that girls school, but those bombs dropped on their universities too. Again the US and Israel are making the propaganda for them.

The university bombed was part of their nuclear program.
 
I'm guessing that Melania still has him sleeping in the guest bedroom.....


“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” he said in a post on Truth Social on Monday morning.

if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.”

If the US deliberately 'blows' up their desalinization plants, would that constitute a 'war crime' under the current definitions? Would that include blowing up their electric generating plants? Also, by blowing up their oil and gas facilities, I believe that this would effectively push the world economy into a dead recession lasting 2026 and into the first half of 2027. Given that Qatar has had 17% of its Nat Gas production knocked out for 3-5yrs, adding whatever Nat Gas production that Iran produces to the Qatari losses would only compound this issue. Lastly, if this sort of thing occurs and if the Iranians in turn are able to knock out additional UAE, Kuwaiti, Saudi, Bahrain or Qatari oil/gas facilities, this may only serve to strengthen Canada's hand in the ongoing CUSMA discussions, which not a word has been mentioned over the last 3+ weeks.
 
I'm guessing that Melania still has him sleeping in the guest bedroom.....


“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” he said in a post on Truth Social on Monday morning.

if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.”

If the US deliberately 'blows' up their desalinization plants, would that constitute a 'war crime' under the current definitions? Would that include blowing up their electric generating plants? Also, by blowing up their oil and gas facilities, I believe that this would effectively push the world economy into a dead recession lasting 2026 and into the first half of 2027. Given that Qatar has had 17% of its Nat Gas production knocked out for 3-5yrs, adding whatever Nat Gas production that Iran produces to the Qatari losses would only compound this issue. Lastly, if this sort of thing occurs and if the Iranians in turn are able to knock out additional UAE, Kuwaiti, Saudi, Bahrain or Qatari oil/gas facilities, this may only serve to strengthen Canada's hand in the ongoing CUSMA discussions, which not a word has been mentioned over the last 3+ weeks.
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Yeah he’s threatening some pretty explicit war crimes / crimes against humanity there. There’s absolutely no way strikes against desalination plants could be defended as necessary, discriminated, or proportionate. As numb as I am to his threats and bluster at this point, this breaks through as monstrous.
 
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Yeah he’s threatening some pretty explicit war crimes / crimes against humanity there. There’s absolutely no way strikes against desalination plants could be defended as necessary, discriminated, or proportionate. As numb as I am to his threats and bluster at this point, this breaks through as monstrous.
Monstrous but unsurprising.
 
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