Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Nvlgzr]

The

Ok, I'm not certain what to make of this news -

Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

Trump said the U.S. blockade will stop Iran from policing the strait and benefiting economically while the rest of the world suffers from its closure.

www.cnbc.com

Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail​

• President Donald Trump said the U.S. will blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks to end the Iran war ended without a resolution over the weekend.
• Trump also said the U.S. Navy will “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.”
• Iran is preparing to charge a toll on vessels seeking passage through the strait, a move that invoked Trump’s ire as Tehran tries to cement its grip on the passage amid a two-week ceasefire.

So now its the US that is blocking the Strait, not the Iranians? How will the US know if a ship has paid a toll to Iran? Ask to see the receipt? Check the companies bank statement? Ask them nicely?

The markets should be opening shortly; my prediction is prediction oil will bump upwards.

 

[Nvlgzr]

And how they react when a Chinese flagged tanker says “We are a Chinese registered vessel exercising our right of transit passage under international law. We wish you a good day.” Is the U.S. going to commit act ms of war against China to enforce this?

He hasn’t thought this through. He’ll come out of this still looking impotent.

TACO Tuesday again.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

“No understanding…without any understanding…etc”… All immediately obvious to you and the rest of the pretentious critics on the internet.

As obvious (and perhaps even as pretentious) as your conclusion that this is a just war and Trump is the answer.

Are there any of the potential second and third order effects that are listed that you think inaccurate or flat out wrong?

Y’all act like allowing Iran to continue its course was the best COA. And if you don’t, you offer no means of effectively dealing with them. Only extreme negativity. Take for example the comment up a few: “lost a war”, that is about as irrational a take as can be given the military outcomes for either country at this point.

Faulty assumption. I do in fact think that the status quo was the best COA - in fact I believe that the JCPOA was the right answer.....

 

[RangerRay]

As obvious (and perhaps even as pretentious) as your conclusion that this is a just war and Trump is the answer.

Are there any of the potential second and third order effects that are listed that you think inaccurate or flat out wrong?


Faulty assumption. I do in fact think that the status quo was the best COA - in fact I believe that the JCPOA was the right answer.....

The Iranians are now raking in more money now than they did under the JCPOA...

 

[brihard]

CENTCOM has provided more clarity. Beginning tomorrow morning, they will blockade all ships entering or exiting Iranian ports anywhere on the coast, including in the Gulf of Oman. So it’s a blockade on Iran, not on the Strait.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043432050921718194

I expect the strait will remain effectively closed to everyone as a result. I’m curious whether any American vessels will enter the straight and into the Persian Gulf again or if they’ll stay out in the Gulf of Oman.

Futures markets open in 30 minutes. Should be interesting.

 

[Cloud Cover]

What would be interesting is if he tries to declare Iran air space as a no fly zone to keep China out from resupplying arms and munitions that way.

 

[Genetk44]

It will be interesting to see how China reacts.

 

[Czech_pivo]

What would be interesting is if he tries to declare Iran air space as a no fly zone to keep China out from resupplying arms and munitions that way.

Can't Russia just send ships via the Caspian Sea? Not much they'll be able to do about that, short of destroying the docks of course

 

[Czech_pivo]

CENTCOM has provided more clarity. Beginning tomorrow morning, they will blockade all ships entering or exiting Iranian ports anywhere on the coast, including in the Gulf of Oman. So it’s a blockade on Iran, not on the Strait.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043432050921718194

I expect the strait will remain effectively closed to everyone as a result. I’m curious whether any American vessels will enter the straight and into the Persian Gulf again or if they’ll stay out in the Gulf of Oman.

Futures markets open in 30 minutes. Should be interesting.

Oil up over 8% in pre-market. Oil over 104$/barrel.