Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Nvlgzr]

The

Ok, I'm not certain what to make of this news -

Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

Trump said the U.S. blockade will stop Iran from policing the strait and benefiting economically while the rest of the world suffers from its closure.

www.cnbc.com

Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail​

• President Donald Trump said the U.S. will blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks to end the Iran war ended without a resolution over the weekend.
• Trump also said the U.S. Navy will “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.”
• Iran is preparing to charge a toll on vessels seeking passage through the strait, a move that invoked Trump’s ire as Tehran tries to cement its grip on the passage amid a two-week ceasefire.

So now its the US that is blocking the Strait, not the Iranians? How will the US know if a ship has paid a toll to Iran? Ask to see the receipt? Check the companies bank statement? Ask them nicely?

The markets should be opening shortly; my prediction is prediction oil will bump upwards.

 

[Nvlgzr]

And how they react when a Chinese flagged tanker says “We are a Chinese registered vessel exercising our right of transit passage under international law. We wish you a good day.” Is the U.S. going to commit act ms of war against China to enforce this?

He hasn’t thought this through. He’ll come out of this still looking impotent.

TACO Tuesday again.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

“No understanding…without any understanding…etc”… All immediately obvious to you and the rest of the pretentious critics on the internet.

As obvious (and perhaps even as pretentious) as your conclusion that this is a just war and Trump is the answer.

Are there any of the potential second and third order effects that are listed that you think inaccurate or flat out wrong?

Y’all act like allowing Iran to continue its course was the best COA. And if you don’t, you offer no means of effectively dealing with them. Only extreme negativity. Take for example the comment up a few: “lost a war”, that is about as irrational a take as can be given the military outcomes for either country at this point.

Faulty assumption. I do in fact think that the status quo was the best COA - in fact I believe that the JCPOA was the right answer.....

 

[RangerRay]

As obvious (and perhaps even as pretentious) as your conclusion that this is a just war and Trump is the answer.

Are there any of the potential second and third order effects that are listed that you think inaccurate or flat out wrong?


Faulty assumption. I do in fact think that the status quo was the best COA - in fact I believe that the JCPOA was the right answer.....

The Iranians are now raking in more money now than they did under the JCPOA...

 

[brihard]

CENTCOM has provided more clarity. Beginning tomorrow morning, they will blockade all ships entering or exiting Iranian ports anywhere on the coast, including in the Gulf of Oman. So it’s a blockade on Iran, not on the Strait.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043432050921718194

I expect the strait will remain effectively closed to everyone as a result. I’m curious whether any American vessels will enter the straight and into the Persian Gulf again or if they’ll stay out in the Gulf of Oman.

Futures markets open in 30 minutes. Should be interesting.

 

[Cloud Cover]

What would be interesting is if he tries to declare Iran air space as a no fly zone to keep China out from resupplying arms and munitions that way.

 

[Genetk44]

It will be interesting to see how China reacts.

 

[Czech_pivo]

What would be interesting is if he tries to declare Iran air space as a no fly zone to keep China out from resupplying arms and munitions that way.

Can't Russia just send ships via the Caspian Sea? Not much they'll be able to do about that, short of destroying the docks of course

 

[Czech_pivo]

CENTCOM has provided more clarity. Beginning tomorrow morning, they will blockade all ships entering or exiting Iranian ports anywhere on the coast, including in the Gulf of Oman. So it’s a blockade on Iran, not on the Strait.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043432050921718194

I expect the strait will remain effectively closed to everyone as a result. I’m curious whether any American vessels will enter the straight and into the Persian Gulf again or if they’ll stay out in the Gulf of Oman.

Futures markets open in 30 minutes. Should be interesting.

Oil up over 8% in pre-market. Oil over 104$/barrel.

 

[HavokFour]

Can't Russia just send ships via the Caspian Sea? Not much they'll be able to do about that, short of destroying the docks of course

China could get a land route going for arms through Afghanistan too.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

CENTCOM has provided more clarity. Beginning tomorrow morning, they will blockade all ships entering or exiting Iranian ports anywhere on the coast, including in the Gulf of Oman. So it’s a blockade on Iran, not on the Strait.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043432050921718194

I expect the strait will remain effectively closed to everyone as a result. I’m curious whether any American vessels will enter the straight and into the Persian Gulf again or if they’ll stay out in the Gulf of Oman.

Futures markets open in 30 minutes. Should be interesting.

I think you are going to see the USN focus on keeping the southern lanes open. Also on this chartlet, I suspect they will redirect the Eastbound lane on the left as a Westbound lane and add a new lane to the south that is Eastbound, moving traffic away from the Iranian coast.

Iran has lost almost all of it's mine laying capability, so once a lane is cleared, it should remain cleared. The main threat to ships will be drones.

 

[brihard]

I think you are going to see the USN focus on keeping the southern lanes open. Also on this chartlet, I suspect they will redirect the Eastbound lane on the left as a Westbound lane and add a new lane to the south that is Eastbound, moving traffic away from the Iranian coast.

Iran has lost almost all of it's mine laying capability, so once a lane is cleared, it should remain cleared. The main threat to ships will be drones.

That could quickly turn into a prolonged and indefinitely military engagement, where U.S. ships may be regularly getting shot at.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

What that chart doesn't tell people who don't know ships is just how tight that turn is when you are a VLCC drawing 85 to 90 feet and weighing more than half a million tons loaded. You are not repet not going through that turn at 25 knots. Between three and eight, with five on average is more like it and that provides a lot of opportunity to become a target. All within 50 NM of a few hundred miles of Iranian coast.

What is the traveling time of a missile for 50 NM again?

 

[HavokFour]

I think you are going to see the USN focus on keeping the southern lanes open. Also on this chartlet, I suspect they will redirect the Eastbound lane on the left as a Westbound lane and add a new lane to the south that is Eastbound, moving traffic away from the Iranian coast.

Iran has lost almost all of it's mine laying capability, so once a lane is cleared, it should remain cleared. The main threat to ships will be drones.

I wouldn't say the mine threat has been entirely negated. The traditional methods of mine laying may be gone but there are several models of Shahed for example with the carrying capacity to accommodate sea mines on the smaller end of the scale. We've already seen alternative payloads being used in the Ukraine by Russia, like putting air to air missiles on their versions of the drone for example.

It doesn't have to sink anything, they only need a hit for insurance companies to nope out to shut down shipping again.

 

[OldSolduer]

What is the traveling time of a missile for 50 NM again?

By my calculations really fast. Blink and you'll miss it.

 

[HavokFour]

As for which mystery countries Trump has claimed will be involved in the blockade.

Not the UK.

UK will not join any Trump blockade of strait of Hormuz

UK’s willingness to consider role in removing mines from strait is seen as distinct from Trump’s blockade proposal

www.theguardian.com

And Australia hasn't received any requests, so probably not.

Live: Australia not asked to help Hormuz blockade as PM names new defence chief

Australia has not received a request to participate in US President Donald Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Anthony Albanese says. Follow live.

www.abc.net.au

 

[brihard]

As for which mystery countries Trump has claimed will be involved in the blockade.

Not the UK.

UK will not join any Trump blockade of strait of Hormuz

UK’s willingness to consider role in removing mines from strait is seen as distinct from Trump’s blockade proposal

www.theguardian.com

And Australia hasn't received any requests, so probably not.

Live: Australia not asked to help Hormuz blockade as PM names new defence chief

Australia has not received a request to participate in US President Donald Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Anthony Albanese says. Follow live.

www.abc.net.au

If it’s a blockade solely of Iranian ports, maybe some gulf partners? But that might invite further reprisal they’d rather avoid. I dunno. I’m inclined to think he was just making that up the way he tends to do.

 

[HavokFour]

If it’s a blockade solely of Iranian ports, maybe some gulf partners? But that might invite further reprisal they’d rather avoid. I dunno. I’m inclined to think he was just making that up the way he tends to do.

I'm getting the feeling he didn't give anyone a heads up again, just like the initial attack. The drop everything and help strategy he seems to favour regardless of it's lackluster track record.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

That could quickly turn into a prolonged and indefinitely military engagement, where U.S. ships may be regularly getting shot at.

True, but the US has mostly expended the effectiveness of the air campaign and a sea campaign is likely preferably to landing ground troops into Iran, although I suspect the smaller islands are due for a management change. You are looking for a quick resolution, but there is unlikely to be one. The west has been at war with the Islamic Republic for 47 years, even if we did not always realize it. Why do you think it will end soon? You want it to end soon, then flood Iran with small arms and let the people finish them.

 

[ytz]

What would be interesting is if he tries to declare Iran air space as a no fly zone to keep China out from resupplying arms and munitions that way.

Iran still have over land and over sea (through the Caspian) options.