Iran Super Thread- Merged

[dapaterson]

The IRGC is a business/mafia masquerading as a State entity. Sort of like Russia…

People living in White Houses shouldn't throw stones.

 

[ytz]

The IRGC is a business/mafia masquerading as a State entity. Sort of like Russia…

In some ways worse than Russia or China where there's more control in the centre.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

In some ways worse than Russia or China where there's more control in the centre.

It was somewhat tightly controlled, with the IRGC slowly and quietly taking power from the Clerics. However the rapid leadership churn and pulverising of their command and control centres in the last 2 months has broken what central control they had.

 

[ytz]

It was somewhat tightly controlled, with the IRGC slowly and quietly taking power from the Clerics. However the rapid leadership churn and pulverising of their command and control centres in the last 2 months has broken what central control they had.

Many years ago I remember the curiosity about the black hole that was North Korea for a lot of allied int. I am starting to wonder if Iran is similar. Israel has hooks. But maybe they're not as deep as we all imagined?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A view from what the other side thinks

https://twitter.com/x/status/2046525366278168746

 

[ytz]

They aren't wrong. This is existential for the regime. And most of us hope they lose.

 

[Brad Sallows]

A view from what the other side thinks

Ah, the Mother Of All Battles rhetoric. Those were heady days.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Many years ago I remember the curiosity about the black hole that was North Korea for a lot of allied int. I am starting to wonder if Iran is similar. Israel has hooks. But maybe they're not as deep as we all imagined?

Israel is good at HUMINT and cypher intelligence, notably how they took out so much of the leadership of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. I suspect their Iranian network is growing by the day, as the large population that hates the IRGC is a big sea for the fish to swim in. However they have to grow carefully as the IRGC will do their best to insert double agents in hopes have capturing a Mossad agent and leaders of the resistance.

The Houthi's are much harder nut to crack as they rightly paranoid and use family/tribal ties to bind their leadership. Plus there is no direct land connection to develop the HUMINT networks with.

 

[OldSolduer]

A view from what the other side thinks

https://twitter.com/x/status/2046525366278168746

Did Trump’s father smell of….elderberries?

 

[KevinB]

Many years ago I remember the curiosity about the black hole that was North Korea for a lot of allied int. I am starting to wonder if Iran is similar. Israel has hooks. But maybe they're not as deep as we all imagined?

To me Israel is also a questionable player in this. I have no doubt their hooks are deeper than they let on, and are playing their own game here.

The same way that a lot of NK int is US Eyes only SAP, I suspect that the Israelis act the same way for various reasons.

 

[lenaitch]

This is wild. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this, but the news outlet is credible.

Mariners stranded in the Gulf have apparently been targeted by scams purporting to be Iranian officials levying tolls for transit, with requirement to pay in crypto. One of the ships shot at by the IRGC a few days ago may have been a victim of this scam.

A “pay the strait of Hormuz toll” crypto scam is just next level.

Beware scam messages offering ships safe transit through Hormuz Strait, says security firm

Unknown actors demanded shipping companies pay transit fees in cryptocurrencies for clearance. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

Beats the heck out of scamming a granny for iTune gift cards to clear a CRA debt.