Schrodinger’s strait.
Trump is reportedly not happy with developments and is back to bluster and threats.
Iran-US war live: Trump threatens to ‘take over’ Iran if Strait of Hormuz is closed
US president’s threats come as Vance joins other US officials in Zurich to hammer out peace deal terms with a battery of Tehran's leaders
www.independent.co.uk
And a longer, more comprehensive Sunday morning read from WaPo.
No paywall: https://archive.is/ZtJL8
Trump’s most present conundrum is that he’s now getting pressed on Israel in Lebanon, and Iran is threatening to again pull a lever that Trump has shown exceeds his pain threshold. Iran has shown they can survive existing U.S. actions taken to back deterrence, so the U.S. may need to come up with a new deterrence strategy. Bombing as we saw it wasn’t opening the Strait, and an open Strait seems to be the single key objective at this point.
We could see a bumpy week. As has been and remains the case, watch Israel, watch for any signs of them telegraphing deescalation in Lebanon, and watch for indications of Netenyahu’s willingness (if any) to shift gears and play ball with Trump. They’re communicating some willingness to cooperate with a ‘ceasefire’ with Hezbollah, but Iran’s demands are much more maximalist than that and include Israeli withdrawal. Not sure if Iran will be willing to flex at all. And if Israeli troops keep dying, I don’t personally think Israel will hold back from major reprisals. A lot hinges on Iran’s willingness and ability to constrain Hezbollah here.
