Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

I feel like this describes me pretty well right about now...

View attachment 100924

Schrodinger’s strait.

Trump is reportedly not happy with developments and is back to bluster and threats.

Iran-US war live: Trump threatens to ‘take over’ Iran if Strait of Hormuz is closed

US president’s threats come as Vance joins other US officials in Zurich to hammer out peace deal terms with a battery of Tehran's leaders

www.independent.co.uk

And a longer, more comprehensive Sunday morning read from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/21/trump-confronts-new-hurdles-bid-peace-deal-with-iran/

No paywall: https://archive.is/ZtJL8

Trump’s most present conundrum is that he’s now getting pressed on Israel in Lebanon, and Iran is threatening to again pull a lever that Trump has shown exceeds his pain threshold. Iran has shown they can survive existing U.S. actions taken to back deterrence, so the U.S. may need to come up with a new deterrence strategy. Bombing as we saw it wasn’t opening the Strait, and an open Strait seems to be the single key objective at this point.

We could see a bumpy week. As has been and remains the case, watch Israel, watch for any signs of them telegraphing deescalation in Lebanon, and watch for indications of Netenyahu’s willingness (if any) to shift gears and play ball with Trump. They’re communicating some willingness to cooperate with a ‘ceasefire’ with Hezbollah, but Iran’s demands are much more maximalist than that and include Israeli withdrawal. Not sure if Iran will be willing to flex at all. And if Israeli troops keep dying, I don’t personally think Israel will hold back from major reprisals. A lot hinges on Iran’s willingness and ability to constrain Hezbollah here.

 

[Altair]

While I find this debate about Israel interesting, I didn't want to chime in. This quote above made me stop, however.

It seems to me that when , as a young country with a history of about 80 years, you have been attacked on three occasions by your (then more powerful) neighbours, with a view to eradicate you, and then suffered constant biting at the ankle from these neighbours "dogs", that in and of itself would lead any country to view itself as under siege and turn you bellicose.

Listen, i understand the position Israel is in.

But those sets of circumstances do not lend itself to other western democracies.

And Israel, due to their bellicose nature tend to do things that only make their situation worse, example, settlements.

This is also out of step with other western liberal democracies.

So i think its fair to exclude them from the mindset of a typical western liberal democracy when they prove themselves to be a massive outlier in terms of western liberal democracies.

 

[suffolkowner]

Listen, i understand the position Israel is in.

But those sets of circumstances do not lend itself to other western democracies.

And Israel, due to their bellicose nature tend to do things that only make their situation worse, example, settlements.

This is also out of step with other western liberal democracies.

So i think its fair to exclude them from the mindset of a typical western liberal democracy when they prove themselves to be a massive outlier in terms of western liberal democracies.

they could remove the settlements in the WB like they did in Gaza. That worked out well
wouldnt want to kidnap the leaders of foreign countries or anything
or siphon money out of the country and promote hostile misinformation
Israel might not be Norway but its a lot closer than the alternative