Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Altair]

Everyone should know better by now than to count on interceptions.

The more interesting part is that the soldier in question got that out in the first place.

Discontent?

 

[brihard]

The more interesting part is that the soldier in question got that out in the first place.

Discontent?

Probably a simple matter of troops are dumb.

 

[Altair]

Probably a simple matter of troops are dumb.

SM?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Probably a simple matter of troops are dumb.

Coupled with the USAF senior leaders never having to really face enemy fire on their bases since Vietnam and thinking it won't happen to them....

 

[brihard]

Coupled with the USAF senior leaders never having to really face enemy fire on their bases since Vietnam and thinking it won't happen to them....

It occurred to me earlier that in this war - US has at least 16 KIA and at least 400 WIA so far - the casualties will predominately be non-combat trades. Bit of a change from what we were accustomed to in GWOT.

 

[Good2Golf]

Or at least a new GWOT…as undertaken by Iran.

 

[McG]

Standing out during a missile attack? What a complete dumbass.

Are there bunkers there? I remember a lot of combat troops who started poker games in the compound during rocket attacks on KAF in the months before there were bunkers anywhere near where the BG slept.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

The patriot either needs ramped up production or it's obsolete for the task at hand.

Start buying KM-SAM instead?

 

[armrdsoul77]

 

[Altair]

You need one of three things

High intercept rate at highcost , low intercept rate at low cost, high intercept rate at low cost. Any of these will do.

But you cannot have low intercept rates at high costs.

And more importantly than that, you need to just flat out HAVE interceptors. It doesn't matter if the patriot was the best AD system in the world, if Iran fires more drones and missiles than there are patriots.

Unless the patriot or whatever AD system is used, can be mass produced quickly, it bodes ill for western militaries. Iran, (IRAN) single handedly drew down the stockpiles of the gulf nations and the USA over 6 weeks. The USA has used years worth of production in 2 months of fighting. They are running into the same issues the Russians are having versus Ukraine, they now need to draw in AD for other regions opening more and more strategic vulnerabilities.

Imagine if China kicks something off in Taiwan right now. Imagine what they could do if Iran was able to bleed US AD dry over 2 months. Brutal.

 

[Czech_pivo]

You need one of three things

High intercept rate at highcost , low intercept rate at low cost, high intercept rate at low cost. Any of these will do.

But you cannot have low intercept rates at high costs.

And more importantly than that, you need to just flat out HAVE interceptors. It doesn't matter if the patriot was the best AD system in the world, if Iran fires more drones and missiles than there are patriots.

Unless the patriot or whatever AD system is used, can be mass produced quickly, it bodes ill for western militaries. Iran, (IRAN) single handedly drew down the stockpiles of the gulf nations and the USA over 6 weeks. The USA has used years worth of production in 2 months of fighting. They are running into the same issues the Russians are having versus Ukraine, they now need to draw in AD for other regions opening more and more strategic vulnerabilities.

Imagine if China kicks something off in Taiwan right now. Imagine what they could do if Iran was able to bleed US AD dry over 2 months. Brutal.

Devils advocate - but this is the plan!

 

[Altair]

Devils advocate - but this is the plan!

China's plan.

 

[Jarnhamar]

He might have expected some form of AD.

It's just generational

 

[KevinB]

You need one of three things

High intercept rate at highcost , low intercept rate at low cost, high intercept rate at low cost. Any of these will do.

But you cannot have low intercept rates at high costs.

And more importantly than that, you need to just flat out HAVE interceptors. It doesn't matter if the patriot was the best AD system in the world, if Iran fires more drones and missiles than there are patriots.

Unless the patriot or whatever AD system is used, can be mass produced quickly, it bodes ill for western militaries. Iran, (IRAN) single handedly drew down the stockpiles of the gulf nations and the USA over 6 weeks. The USA has used years worth of production in 2 months of fighting. They are running into the same issues the Russians are having versus Ukraine, they now need to draw in AD for other regions opening more and more strategic vulnerabilities.

Imagine if China kicks something off in Taiwan right now. Imagine what they could do if Iran was able to bleed US AD dry over 2 months. Brutal.

AD/C-UAS needs be be a multilayer network.
Patriot has a few different interceptor options, depending on threat. But it is just part of the theatre network. From longer range/higher altitude interceptions to shorter range and altitude missiles, as well as DE, Cannon, and other systems.

Only using one system will leave serious holes (and I am not saying that has occurred), but based on a lot of OS footage there seems to be some gaps in systems for whatever reason, as well as the Patriot’s in Jordan seem to be loaded for a different type of threat.

While it is OS that a number of interceptor options have been pushed into accelerated production at rates 5-10x previous, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand the drawdown gap that @Altair has mentioned above.

Generally one tends to go into a conflict with these sort of things setup, and maybe a coalition too.

 

[Lumber]

Devils advocate - but this is the plan!

China's plan.

"I had to make the strategic decision to withdraw my promise to defend Taiwan because I wasted all my interceptors on Iran. Oops."

 

[Altair]

"I had to make the strategic decision to withdraw my promise to defend Taiwan because I wasted all my interceptors on Iran. Oops."

You forgot to add all the winning he would be doing with this decision.

Same way he's won versus Iran around 20 times now.

 

[childs56]

You need one of three things

High intercept rate at highcost , low intercept rate at low cost, high intercept rate at low cost. Any of these will do.

But you cannot have low intercept rates at high costs.

And more importantly than that, you need to just flat out HAVE interceptors. It doesn't matter if the patriot was the best AD system in the world, if Iran fires more drones and missiles than there are patriots.

Unless the patriot or whatever AD system is used, can be mass produced quickly, it bodes ill for western militaries. Iran, (IRAN) single handedly drew down the stockpiles of the gulf nations and the USA over 6 weeks. The USA has used years worth of production in 2 months of fighting. They are running into the same issues the Russians are having versus Ukraine, they now need to draw in AD for other regions opening more and more strategic vulnerabilities.

Imagine if China kicks something off in Taiwan right now. Imagine what they could do if Iran was able to bleed US AD dry over 2 months. Brutal.

Guns lots of A/D guns Cheap and easy compared to missiles.

 

[PrairieFella]

What about Saudi? UAE? Qatar?

Theyd be irrelevant backwaters. The only reason we care about them is their resource. No other reason.

 

[Altair]

Guns lots of A/D guns Cheap and easy compared to missiles.

You would need to blanket the region in them.

Guns have a relatively short range.

But at this point...

 

[PrairieFella]

Muwaffaq Salti may have been a bad hit; some of the online OSINT types are saying NASA FIRMS (fire monitoring satellite) data is showing fires burning on an area of the base likely comprising troop accommodations. Not much solid on this yet but it bears watching.

Reading over Al Jazeera’s morning coverage, it looks like attacks on civilian infrastructure by both sides are escalating. AJ report two of Kuwait’s nine desalination plants have been hit… That could be a really, really big deal, and if attacks on desalination plants continue it could be devastating. On the other side, the U.S. seems to be going hard after civilian telecommunications infrastructure in southern Iran, plus the bridges and such we’ve seen for the last two days. I fear a really ugly turn is being taken here, and one that will make deescalation harder.

It really feels like we're sering shaping operations for land operations...targeting communications, railways, bridges, highways, etc. I hope Im wrong. What a fucking bloodbath thatd be.