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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Iran said Sunday that it will begin operation of the country's first nuclear power plant

A  great reason to go to war!

An announcement by whom ?

As Edward R Murrow would say "steady" - check your sources before you act.

Mr George  Bush wish had now with Iraq!
 
This article from the LA Times (via PrairiePundit) is intriguing.  It discusses the "who's in charge?" question.

BEIRUT -- Iran's supreme leader spoke not with the thunder of a man regarded in his country as God's representative on Earth, but with the exasperated tone of a corporate manager chastising his employees.

Ali Khamenei had ordered his deputies to start privatizing state-owned businesses: the telephone company, three banks and dozens of small oil and petrochemical enterprises.

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Jealously guarding their own sources of power and patronage, however, his underlings all but ignored him.

Months passed. Then Khamenei gathered the country's elite for an extraordinary meeting. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet ministers were there, as were important clerics, the leader of parliament and provincial governors, and the heads of state broadcasting and the Iranian chamber of commerce.

With television cameras rolling, Khamenei told them to pass some laws, sell off some businesses -- and be quick about it. "Those who are hostile to these policies are the ones who are going to lose their interests and influence," he declared.

The system shrugged. By November, nine months after his public scolding and almost a year and a half after Khamenei had first issued his order, almost nothing had happened. According to the Middle East Economic Digest, only two out of 240 state-owned businesses Khamenei targeted had been sold off......
Concentric circles of influence and power that emanate from the supreme leader include the clergy, government and military officials -- and at their farthest fringes, militiamen and well-connected bazaar merchants -- altogether perhaps 15% of Iran's 70 million people.

Even the man regarded in Iran as the highest-ranking cleric in Shiite Islam finds himself constrained and challenged.

Those inside Iran's circle of power, says Ali Afshari, an analyst and former student activist now living in Washington, operate according to unique rules.

"It is not a democracy or an absolute totalitarian regime," he said. "Nor is it a communist system or monarchy or dictatorship. It is a mixture."

Those who matter

In the parlance of Iran's ruling elite, those who truly matter are referred to as khodi, Persian for "one of us."........
 
Lets get our minds clouded by some facts
not
some ramblings of an LA Newspaper

The following from an interesting Fact Book put out by the CIA
- after all
-if you cant trust CIA
who can you trust??

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html



-


Political parties and leaders:
Definition Field Listing
[/b]
formal political parties are a relatively new phenomenon in Iran and most conservatives still prefer to work through political pressure groups rather than parties, and often political parties or groups are formed prior to elections and disbanded soon thereafter; a loose pro-reform coalition called the 2nd Khordad Front, which includes political parties as well as less formal pressure groups and organizations, achieved considerable success at elections to the sixth Majles in early 2000; groups in the coalition include: Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), Executives of Construction Party (Kargozaran), Solidarity Party, Islamic Labor Party, Mardom Salari, Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution Organization (MIRO), and Militant Clerics Society (Ruhaniyun); the coalition participated in the seventh Majles elections in early 2004; following his defeat in the 2005 presidential elections, former MCS Secretary General Mehdi KARUBI formed the National Trust Party; a new apparently conservative group, the Builders of Islamic Iran, took a leading position in the new Majles after winning a majority of the seats in February 2004
Political pressure groups and leaders:

The Islamic Revolutionary Party (IRP) was Iran's sole political party until its dissolution in 1987; Iran now has a variety of groups engaged in political activity; some are oriented along political lines or based on an identity group; others are more akin to professional political parties seeking members and recommending candidates for office; some are active participants in the Revolution's political life while others reject the state; political pressure groups conduct most of Iran's political activities; groups that generally support the Islamic Republic include Ansar-e Hizballah, Muslim Students Following the Line of the Imam, Tehran Militant Clergy Association (Ruhaniyat), Islamic Coalition Party (Motalefeh), and Islamic Engineers Society; active pro-reform student groups include the Office of Strengthening Unity (OSU); opposition groups include Freedom Movement of Iran, the National Front, Marz-e Por Gohar, and various ethnic and Monarchist organizations; armed political groups that have been repressed by the government include Mujahidin-e Khalq Organization (MEK or MKO), People's Fedayeen, Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), and Komala



Disputes - international:
Definition Field Listing

Iran protests Afghanistan's limiting flow of dammed tributaries to the Helmand River in periods of drought; Iraq's lack of a maritime boundary with Iran prompts jurisdiction disputes beyond the mouth of the Shatt al Arab in the Persian Gulf; Iran and UAE dispute Tunb Islands and Abu Musa Island, which are occupied by Iran; Iran stands alone among littoral states in insisting upon a division of the Caspian Sea into five equal sectors
 
Radioactive material trying to be smuggled into Iran via train.....

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/01/460cd9d5-93ea-424a-a68a-316142bcf3e1.html

I guess this was a CIA fabrication that Iran will report on state run media as being "A normal Occurrence"......my big toe.
 
Ahhhh......

Iran may or may not have anything to do with this current incident.... Iran just happened to be the train's destination.

Parts of the former Soviet Union are still littered with sites where lethal radioactive materials remain largely unsecured.

The cargo train belonged to a Tajik firm but the cargo was loaded by Kyrgyzstan's state railway company Temir in Kyrgyzstan with other material and was bound for Iran. Noruzbaev questioned how the train made it so far before being detected by Uzbek border guards.

"It passed through our border, the Kyrgyz border [and] it passed through two border checkpoints in Kazakhstan, entering and exiting [Kazakhstan]," Noruzbaev said. "Only on the territory of Uzbekistan was it discovered, and they [the Uzbeks] sent the train back to us."

Noruzbaev said the radioactive material should have been discovered long before the train arrived in Uzbekistan.

does everyone have a warm and fuzzy feeling yet?
 
Nice post Cheshire!

Hardly a smoking gun, but the only way I would feel "warm and fuzzy" about
Iran in all this, would be if Iran had turned it back at their border.

Yea - that would happen..... ;)
 
President Bush has been trucking around the Middle East the past few days. Not so much as you'd notice though.  Apparently he has been to more places than Israel/Palestine.  Hard to pick that up on the TV.

He visited Kuwait and the UAE. He talked to troops and women.  He seems to be in the process of arranging a permanent status of forces agreement with Iraq along the lines of those with Kuwait. This is on top of the news that the Iraqis have passed one of Congress's benchmarks - the reconciliation law and the Shiite clerics are calling for more rapid movement by the politicians on the rest of the benchmarks. 

Bush seems favourably inclined towards Jordan, Oman, Bahrain and Morocco as evidenced by Free Trade Agreements......

And in the middle of all this Iran sends out a couple of speed boats to tackle the US Navy.

Meanwhile, next door, in Iraq, the US launches a "massive U.S. military raid south of the capital Thursday, two B1-B bombers and four F-16 fighters dropped 48 precision-guided bombs on 47 targets,"

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/01/20080113-1.html
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/01/20080112-3.html

http://washingtontimes.com/article/20080112/FOREIGN/842215912/1003/foreign
http://www.newsweek.com/id/91651

And in Iran, apparently, people are burning townhalls when they run out of fuel.....in Iran.

All in all I wouldn't want to be trying to play Ahmadinejad's hand.  Internal instability.  Changed relations with the neighbours.  The US ensconced next door.  And it has had an opportunity to brush up its game and employ new technology and tactics.

Massive air strike.  2 Bombers and 4 Fighters.  48 Bombs. 47 Targets.
How many Bombers, Fighters and Bombs available?




 
They may have detected it, but did they secure it?
 
Un-spinning some American political manouevres:

http://www.damianpenny.com/archived/010809.html

It all depends on what the meaning of "nuclear weapons program" is

John Bolton takes on the US Director of National Intelligence:

    Today [Feb. 5], Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee (and Thursday on the House side) to give the intelligence community's annual global threat analysis. These hearings are always significant, but the stakes are especially high now because of the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran.

    [...]

    There are (at least) three things he should do:

    - Explain how the NIE was distorted, and rewrite it objectively to reflect the status of Iran's nuclear programs. The NIE's first key judgment is "we judge with high confidence that in fall, 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." Most of the world, predictably, never got beyond that opinion. Only inveterate footnote hunters noticed the extraordinary accompanying footnote which redefined Iran's "nuclear weapons program" to mean only its "nuclear weapon design and weaponization work," and undeclared uranium conversion and enrichment activities. Card sharks -- not intelligence professionals -- could be proud of this sleight of hand, which grossly mischaracterizes what Iran actually needs for a weapons program.

    The NIE later makes clear that Iran's nuclear efforts and capabilities are continuing and growing, that many activities are "dual use" (i.e., for either civil or military purposes), and that Iran's real intentions are unknown. Substantively, therefore, the NIE is not far different from the 2005 NIE, but its first sentence gives a radically different impression.

    Here is the first question for Congress: Was the NIE's opening salvo intended to produce policy consequences congenial to Mr. McConnell's own sentiments? If not, how did he miss the obvious consequences that flowed from the NIE within minutes of its public release?

    [...]

    If, on the other hand, Mr. McConnell and others missed the NIE's explosive nature, then this is at best a sin of omission, and perhaps far worse. Will Mr. McConnell say he saw nothing significant in how the NIE was written? Does he believe in fact that the first sentence is the NIE's single most important point? If not, why was it the first sentence?

    Why not start by using the NIE's very last key judgment, "we assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so." Who decided which sentence should be first and which last? This is not an exercise in style, but a matter of critical importance for American national security.

    [...]

    Mr. Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of "Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations" (Simon & Schuster/Threshold Editions, 2007).

Ambassador Bolton's view of the NIE receives support in an odd place--a piece (full text subscriber only) in the leftish London Review of Books by a professor emeritus of theoretical physics at the University of Sussex:

    The US defence and intelligence community launched a pre-emptive strike at George Bush and Richard Cheney on 3 December. The new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released that day concluded: ‘We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme.’ So Iran will not be the next target of this administration after all. The politicians’ attempt to blame the intelligence community for the absence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003 has rebounded: this time around the intelligence agencies have acted decisively to outflank those wanting to bomb Iran...

More, including a worrying estimate, after the jump.

Mark C.

Norman Dombey's assessment:

    A year ago I wrote that it would probably take two years for Iran to get its centrifuges running and another two years to enrich sufficient uranium to make a bomb.[†] I was wrong. In November 2007 the IAEA confirmed that all three thousand machines had been installed and tested with uranium hexafluoride gas. At present Iran is enriching to a level of about 4 per cent, which is appropriate for use in nuclear reactors. If the cascades were slightly modified, a store of 750 kg of low enriched uranium (LEU) could be used to produce a critical mass of 30 kg of highly enriched uranium within three months. Making reasonable assumptions about the efficiency of the centrifuges, Iran would need to feed between nine and 13 tonnes of uranium hexafluoride into the cascades to obtain this amount of LEU.

    The IAEA reported that between the end of August and the beginning of November Iran enriched 550 kg of uranium hexafluoride using 12 cascades. With the full 18 cascades Iran should be able to enrich five tonnes per year and thus accumulate 750 kg of LEU by 2010 or 2011 – earlier if it does better. These are my estimates, but they agree with those given in the NIE [emphasis added]...

Posted by markc at February 5, 2008 06:39 PM
 
Thucydides: Exactly.

Then there would only be the problem of boring out a three inch gun--the whole first link below is worth reading if one wants to know about basic HEU bombs (implosion plutonium ones are much more complex-second link).
http://www.cartage.org.lb/en/themes/Sciences/Chemistry/NuclearChemistry/NuclearWeapons/FirstChainReaction/FirstNuclWeapons/LittleBoy.htm
http://www.lanl.gov/history/atomicbomb/littleboyandfatman.shtml

Mark
Ottawa

 
Here is an artist's line drawing and a photo of the new Iranian "Peykaap" class fast missile boat, according to the ff. link: (the original poster of the photos at the ff.site didn't disclose his source)

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showpost.php?p=3066937&postcount=1

I'll leave it to the experts here to determine whether it poses a threat at all to the CPFs or any coalition nation's warships.

paykeepimprovesg9.jpg


PeeykapFAC.jpg


specs, according to wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_Iranian_Navy_vessels

Displacement: 13.75 tons
Dimensions: L 16.3 m, W 3.75m, Dr 0.67 m H 1.93m
Crew: 3
Endurance: 320 nm
Speed: 52kt
Powerplant: 2 x 1,200 hp (890 kW)
Armament: 2 x 324 mm (12.75”) torpedo tubes, small-arms, (missiles not specified in wiki)







 
Another small bit of news concerning Iran and it's internal stresses.

National Post article link

Shared with the usual disclaimers;

Canada silent on 'death to heretics'
Steven Edwards, National Post 
Published: Friday, February 29, 2008

UNITED NATIONS -Canada has shown international leadership by working within the UN to focus world attention on Iran's appalling human rights record.

Which makes it all the more regrettable Ottawa bureaucrats dropped the ball this week by letting the European Union speak out first against Iran's latest bid to persecute its people.

The outrage in question is draft legislation to impose the death penalty on men who seek to leave Islam and life imprisonment coupled with "hardship" on women who do.

Witchcraft and heresy would also be capital crimes if parliament approves the draft, as seems likely.

While death for apostasy is already mandated in Iran under shariah law, the EU points out parliamentary approval will formalize the punishment in Iran's criminal code.

"These articles clearly violate the Islamic Republic of Iran's commitments under the international human rights conventions to which Iran is party," the 27-nation bloc said in a statement on Monday.

From Ottawa, silence, even though Canada has distinguished itself since 2003 by driving through annual UN censures of the Islamic republic for human rights abuses.

Those efforts made Canada the point man for applying pressure on Iran's ruling mullahs. They have run as an important parallel to U.S.-and European-led efforts to strong-arm Iran into rolling back its nuclear program.

Maintaining pressure on the human rights front is arguably more crucial than ever. For many experts, the draft law is one of several recent regressive measures -- enforcing the Islamic dress code and press crackdowns are others -- that suggest the mullahs are under more pressure than at any time since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini replaced the Shah in 1979.

"The question is why now, 30 years after the revolution?" asked Payam Akhavan, a professor at McGill University and co-founder of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Centre in Connecticut.

"It's a reaction in part to a rising tide of reformism in Iran, where the vast majority of people are 30 years of age and under. They are largely a post-ideological, pragmatic generation that wants economic prosperity, freedom and open society.

"Against this, the hardliners sense they are losing their grip on power. So these various measures -- reinstating the wearing of the hijab for women, cracking down on human rights organizations and now reinstating shariah law with even greater vigour --are part of a desperate attempt to retrench their powers."

Canada took up the torch in 2003 after Zahra Kazemi, 54, an Iranian-Canadian photojournalist, was murdered in a Tehran jail.

Representatives of Canada's 30,000 Baha'is have met Foreign Affairs officials to point out one of the draft law's most worrisome provisions, which they believe targets their coreligionists in Iran.

This prescribes death for anyone claiming to be a prophet and says "any Muslim who invents heresy in the religion and creates a [contrary] sect" is considered an apostate.

According to Baha'i teachings, religious history has unfolded through a series of God's messengers, with Baha'i founder Baha'u'llah the most recent in 19th-century Persia, now Iran.

Islam considers Muhammad God's final prophet.

The Baha'i delegation gave the Ottawa bureaucrats a translation of the draft law. Where is Canada's condemnation?


The woman who cuts my hair is an Iranian B'hai
Makes you wonder where this world is going doesn't it?
 
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