It was the delay that was strange. After a US drone strike killed Iranian Quds Force leader Qassim Soleimani in the early hours of Friday morning, Iran and its various Iraqi proxies went into an expected period of mourning – except it wasn’t quite what it should have been.
Just hours after the strike the official Twitter feed for the Popular Mobilisation Front (PMF) – an umbrella of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq – tweeted out a simple message.
“Attention: The Hashd al-Sha’abi confirms the martyrdom of the deputy commander of Hashd Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and the commander of the Jerusalem Corps (Quds Force) by an American raid near Baghdad International Airport #IraqCommandostoMartydom.”
And then: almost nothing. Once the official PMF account had tweeted the various militia groups under its command, and their officials, should have immediately followed suit. But, in fact, it took several hours after that for all of the other groups to get on message.
The important PMF group, the Badr Organisation, didn’t update its ‘War News’ Facebook page until late in the day on January 3.
Eventually, the posters were printed and disseminated; the vigils were held. But it is clear that the PMF was thrown into confusion – and shock – by the deaths of its two most senior commanders (PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was killed alongside Soleimani).
This is significant. It is through them that Tehran will most likely seek to strike back hard against Washington.
As of now, the PMF is facing two problems that no one is talking about. The first is the death of its commander Muhandis whose assassination has been totally overshadowed by Soleimani’s.
Iran watchers have commented that Muhandis – who was tremendously loyal to the regime – was the thing that connected the different groups under the PMF umbrella, having created several of them. The group will recover but right now it is wobbling.
The second problem concerns the anti-Iran protests strafing Baghdad. The protesters have legitimate grievances and, as of now, remain firm in their anti-Iran messaging and demands.
Iraqi protesters block a road with burning tyres during an anti-government demonstration in the holy shrine city of Najaf, before Qassim Soleimani's death CREDIT: HAIDAR HAMDANI/AFP
Critically, among the protesters are fighters from the PMF. Good Shias but also Iraqi nationalists tired of Iranian meddling in their country.
The leadership must now wait to see which side they will ultimately choose. Will they remain loyal to the demonstrations or return to Iran? Until then a concerted effort against Iranian enemies will be difficult to mount properly, and if they are planning to retaliate with any sort of proportion for Soleimani’s death, they will need to be prepared like never before.
Right now Iran is on the back foot. Its greatest military commander has been killed and its primary means of retaliation cannot be relied upon. It is almost certain that the highly disciplined PMF will recalibrate quickly, but until then the uncertainty around this crisis grows ever more dangerous by the day.
David is Non-Resident Fellow at the School of Iranian Studies, St Andrews, and author of War In 140 Characters: How Social Media Is Reshaping Conflict In The Twenty-First Century.
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