Iraq Unravels

[Kirkhill]

So yes, Muhandis and Soleimani were Allies.  Has a lot to do with this:

Treading tentatively here - recognizing that some wear their t-shirts legitimately.

Aren't there a couple of other overlays for that map?  It refers to Kurds and Arabs.  Aren't the Arabs traditionally seen as the desert wanderers and culturally different from the people of the cities, each of which has its own distinct identity?  And, in addition to the religious, linguistic differences I might expect to find Persian cultural influences in the Shia inclined areas, particularly in Mesopotamia proper, "the land between the two rivers"?

All of which is to say life is complicated over there and has been ever since farmers started defending their flocks and field from starving nomads.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I bet he avoids any high profile trips to Iraq for the time being.

If he listens to the IRGC Health & Safety Committee, he will  :nod:

Meanwhile, Russia's initial take:

The Russian Defense Ministry has highlighted the contribution of Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a US strike at Baghdad airport, to combating the Islamic State (IS terrorist group, outlawed in Russia) in Syria.

"Under the direct leadership of Qasem Soleimani, armed resistance against international terrorist groups ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, former name of the IS - TASS) and Al-Qaeda (outlawed in Russia) was organized in Syria and Iraq long before the so-called international coalition led by the US. His personal contribution to the fight against ISIL on the territory of Syria is undisputed," the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement published on Friday ...

How do you say "grossly misunderstood man" in Russian?  ;D

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Interesting piece, and good for critical thinking...however...the author seems to pre-judge that the M.E. is the only significant source of medium and heavy crude to round out the light shale. 

If only there were a source of medium/heavy crude that America could influence that was closer than the M.E. and wasn’t an OPEC member easily influenced by the GCC...

I see that her note of “best estimates” of 5-10 years to Peak for US shale went without a reference...

We’ll see how America’s ‘continuing dependency’ on OPEC oil plays out...

Regards
G2G

There is another source obviously (It's us) but again, it all comes down to price and profit margins.  Middle Eastern Oil will always have competitive advantage due to significantly lower extraction costs.

The Shale industry is also doing terribly btw. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-The-Shale-Boom-Running-On-Fumes.html

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Here is a link to the November 2018 copy of the Sentinel magazine which is produced by the Combating Terrorism Centre at West Point which has a detailed biography of the late, great General Qassem Solieman.

https://ctc.usma.edu/november-2018/

 

[BlueFalcon109]

The assassination of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis was reckless and to be frank, stupid. There are going to be severe long term ramifications for this.

 

[brihard]

Here is a link to the November 2018 copy of the Sentinel magazine which is produced by the Combating Terrorism Centre at West Point which has a detailed biography of the late, great General Qassem Solieman.

https://ctc.usma.edu/november-2018/

Their website is slow as hell right now. I cannot imagine why that would be.

Thanks for the good read.

 

[Navy_Pete]

The assassination of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis was reckless and to be frank, stupid. There are going to be severe long term ramifications for this.

Pretty much classic Trump so far though; he's been impeached, and this will look good in the polls to his base, and bolster his support in the Senate (because they will be more afraid of being kicked to the curb then getting their soldiers killed). Bullying people is easy to do when it's not your kids that will go to the front lines to die.

He's said he would start a war rather then lose the presidency, so no real surprise. He's doing great at handing over the M.E. to Russia and Chinese interests though; pretty impressive to undermine a generation of diplomacy in a few short years. Expect Iraq is super happy that they killed a general of their neighbour with a drone strike in their country.

Not looping in Congress or any NATO allies was a nice touch; kind of a schizophrenic approach to isolationalism.

I don't doubt this guy wasn't exactly a humanitarian, but the US blew through any credibility with the Iraq WMD intelligence fiasco, so hard to believe anything coming out of the Pentagon or Whitehouse about this preventing an imminent attack, especially given the obvious political gains. These guys are like really bad cartoon villains.

 

[BlueFalcon109]

Pretty much classic Trump so far though; he's been impeached, and this will look good in the polls to his base, and bolster his support in the Senate (because they will be more afraid of being kicked to the curb then getting their soldiers killed). Bullying people is easy to do when it's not your kids that will go to the front lines to die.

He's said he would start a war rather then lose the presidency, so no real surprise. He's doing great at handing over the M.E. to Russia and Chinese interests though; pretty impressive to undermine a generation of diplomacy in a few short years. Expect Iraq is super happy that they killed a general of their neighbour with a drone strike in their country.

Not looping in Congress or any NATO allies was a nice touch; kind of a schizophrenic approach to isolationalism.

I don't doubt this guy wasn't exactly a humanitarian, but the US blew through any credibility with the Iraq WMD intelligence fiasco, so hard to believe anything coming out of the Pentagon or Whitehouse about this preventing an imminent attack, especially given the obvious political gains. These guys are like really bad cartoon villains.

100% spot on. It's insane how much Trump has single-handedly eroded US soft power and diplomatic prowess on the global stage during his tenure as POTUS. I'm terrified of the prospects of Trump getting a second term.

 

[TheHead]

These tweets of his aged like milk. There are countless others.  This is a case of projection and hypocrisy like many other documented times.  Attack someone for doing or not doing something and then do a 180 and do it yourself.  It's part of his playbook. 

*Edited to change negative tone*

 

[PuckChaser]

I find it absolutely hilarious that the same people who think POTUS is an incompetent fool with no geopolitical skills or knowledge is now somehow smart enough to know exactly the 3 terrorists to kill that Iran will risk a hot war with the United States.

Absolutely this act was an escalation, but likely a much needed change of a broken record. "Soft power" with Iran hasn't worked in 40 years. They are a massive destabilizing force in the Middle East, and Soleimani has been compared to Bin Laden/Al-Baghdadi for his leadership in exporting terror to other countries to further Iranian influence in the area. We're also not privy to the high level intelligence that would lead the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs or Director CIA/NSA/DIA to brief POTUS on a direct connection between Soleimani and the rocket attack in Kirkuk, and also a window where they would be able to prosecute the target outside the territory of Iran.

 

[OldSolduer]

I remember the siege of the US Embassy and subsequent hostage taking of US diplomats in 1979 in Tehran.

It lasted 444 days and six hostages were evacuated through the Canadian Embassy. Like it or not, I don't think Iran has forgotten that.

As I have said before, I'm glad these two terrorists were dispatched.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Shale is not the panacea it is made out to be.  It's a short-term solution and the United States needs to be ready to set the conditions for future success going forward.

I think this linked article lays out why:

https://www.mei.edu/publications/shale-oil-and-illusion-us-energy-independence

Middle Eastern Oil is still the cheapest game in town.  If anything, US reliance on Shale for Energy independence puts them in bed even more with the Gulf States.

Why?

Because the Gulf States have the ability, through OPEC, to control the price of oil. ARAMCO would be still making money at $15 per barrel, Shale is reliant on prices remaining high IOT be economically feasible.

Shale destroys OPEC power to control the price of oil, while our extraction costs are higher, the ME social costs per barrel is higher, if OPEC pushes the price shale production grows quickly. Saudi is burning through it's cash reserves. because it still must pay out something like $45-50 a barrel to maintain it's population, allies, proxies and to buy western loyalty, regardless of the actual price of oil. 

 

[Weinie]

I remember the siege of the US Embassy and subsequent hostage taking of US diplomats in 1979 in Tehran.

It lasted 444 days and six hostages were evacuated through the Canadian Embassy. Like it or not, I don't think Iran has forgotten that.

As I have said before, I'm glad these two terrorists were dispatched.

Amen to that :nod:

 

[PPCLI Guy]

US fatigue.

Yup.  I am guessing that Iraq is getting tired of the US - and all the other players - from what they see as interference (notwithstanding that whole ISIS thing, which they believe they defeated....with an element of truth to it other than that whole ISR and fires aspect of things). 

I feel sorry for them as the remnants of the Persian, Ottoman and Arabic empires pick over the bones of her corpse, with the remains of the Russian and American empires placing sidebets, while the Chinese empire counts its Yuans...

 

[BlueFalcon109]

I find it absolutely hilarious that the same people who think POTUS is an incompetent fool with no geopolitical skills or knowledge is now somehow smart enough to know exactly the 3 terrorists to kill that Iran will risk a hot war with the United States.

Absolutely this act was an escalation, but likely a much needed change of a broken record. "Soft power" with Iran hasn't worked in 40 years. They are a massive destabilizing force in the Middle East, and Soleimani has been compared to Bin Laden/Al-Baghdadi for his leadership in exporting terror to other countries to further Iranian influence in the area. We're also not privy to the high level intelligence that would lead the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs or Director CIA/NSA/DIA to brief POTUS on a direct connection between Soleimani and the rocket attack in Kirkuk, and also a window where they would be able to prosecute the target outside the territory of Iran.

Sir, with all due respect, how do you think this is going to be portrayed in the region and on the international stage? The United States just assassinated a high ranking military official of sovereign country "A" during a visit to sovereign country "B" at the behest of country "B"'s internationally recognized government along with the commander of a government-sanctioned paramilitary entity of country "B". The Iraqi government's response to the first US airstrike killing 25 members of said militia was condemnation, literally calling it "a treacherous stab in the back" - how do you think this is going to go over with them?

I know it's easy to just label anyone who opposes American forces in the Middle East as a "terrorist", but the reality of both that region and diplomacy behind the scenes is much more nuanced than that.

Also to reiterate the point above: Soleimani has been compared to Bin Laden/Al-Baghdadi for his leadership in exporting terror to other countries to further Iranian influence in the area <--- When was the last time Soleimani or the Quds Force flew an airplane into a skyscraper filled with civilians or hunted down nuns and priests in Syria to be raped and beheaded?

I'm a pragmatist who firmly believes in realpolitik and looks at all global developments through a prism of "does this help or hinder Canada's national interests"? You want to blatantly violate international law in order to advance Canada's national interest? Great, you have my support; however, all these actions have done is potentially put at risk the 850 Canadian Forces members deployed in Iraq and I'm still left scratching my head as to how this is good for us?

 

[PPCLI Guy]

As I have said before, I'm glad these two terrorists were dispatched.

So, both are members of the apparatus of legitimate states.  While we may chose to label them as "terrorists", that is oversimplifying the situation by a long shot.  Not everyone who competes, contests, confronts or even combats us is a terrorist.  An adversary?  Absolutely.  A "terrorist"?  Not necessarily.  It is however conceivable that we are on the cusp of above the threshold state on state conflict

Terrorist is, after all, a label - one that has in fact been applied to CENTCOM and its Commander:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-rouhani/iran-designates-as-terrorists-all-us-troops-in-middle-east-idUSKCN1S61GB

Iran designates as terrorists all U.S. troops in Middle East

LONDON (Reuters) - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani signed a bill into law on Tuesday declaring all U.S. forces in the Middle East terrorists and calling the U.S. government a sponsor of terrorism.

The bill was passed by parliament last week in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s decision this month to designate Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards a foreign terrorist organization.

It was not clear what the impact of the new Iranian law might have on U.S. forces or their Middle East operations.

Rouhani instructed the ministry of intelligence, ministry of foreign affairs, the armed forces, and Iran’s supreme national security council to implement the law, state media reported.

The law specifically labels as a terrorist organization the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

“These two forces (Guards and CENTCOM) that are designated as terrorist groups reciprocally might confront (each other) in the Persian Gulf or any other region. The United States will surely be responsible for such a situation,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted as saying by state news agency IRNA on Tuesday.

The United States has already blacklisted dozens of entities and people for affiliations with the Guards, but until Trump’s decision not the organization as a whole.

Comprising an estimated 125,000-strong military with army, navy and air units, the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) also command the Basij, a religious volunteer paramilitary force, and control Iran’s ballistic missile programs. The Guards’ overseas Quds forces have fought Iran’s proxy wars in the region.

Long-tense relations between Tehran and Washington took a turn for the worse in May 2018 when Trump pulled out of a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, reached before he took office, and reimposed sanctions.

Revolutionary Guards commanders have repeatedly said that U.S. bases in the Middle East and U.S. aircraft carriers in the Gulf are within range of Iranian missiles.

Rouhani said on Tuesday the Islamic Republic will continue to export oil despite U.S. sanctions aimed at reducing the country’s crude shipments to zero.

To be clear, I am not / not suggesting that US forces are "terrorist forces".  I am questioning the value of the label, the ease with which we through it around, and the confusion that may cause.  State on state conflict doesn't suddenly becoming easier by calling it a Counter Terrorism operation.....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I recall Giap remarks "Better 100 years of French , US sh*t than 1,000 years of China" Iraq knows the US will eventually leave, but they know that the Iranians will not, unless forced out.

 

[kkwd]

Here is the official Canadian Government take on Quds. It is listed under National Security - Counter Terrorism - Listed Terrorist Entities - Currently listed entities

https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/cntr-trrrsm/lstd-ntts/crrnt-lstd-ntts-en.aspx

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Qods Force

Also known as
Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Islami (Pasdaran), Sepah-e Qods, Qods/Quds, al Quds, al Quds Force, Qods/Quds Force, Qods Corps, Jerusalem Corps, Jerusalem Force and Qods Force.

Description
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Qods Force is the clandestine branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for extraterritorial operations, and for exporting the Iranian Revolution through activities such as facilitating terrorist operations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Qods Force provides arms, funding and paramilitary training to extremist groups, including the Taliban, Lebanese Hizballah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC).

Date listed
2012-12-17

Date reviewed
2018-11-21

The US take on it is here.
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/hp644.aspx

 

[Weinie]

To be clear, I am not / not suggesting that US forces are "terrorist forces".  I am questioning the value of the label, the ease with which we through it around, and the confusion that may cause.  State on state conflict doesn't suddenly becoming easier by calling it a Counter Terrorism operation.....

Moral relativism may be any of several philosophical positions concerned with the differences in moral judgments across different people and cultures. Descriptive moral relativism holds only that some people do in fact disagree about what is moral; meta-ethical moral relativism holds that in such disagreements, nobody is objectively right or wrong; and normative moral relativism holds that because nobody is right or wrong, we ought to tolerate the behavior of others even when we disagree about the morality of it.

Not buying the moral relativism argument...nor should there be any tolerance for what the mullahs of Iran have inflicted on the ME to further their own ends. Sometimes you have to choose a side. 

 

[PPCLI Guy]

You completely missed my point.

We need to be prepared for state on state war, not counter terrorist operations.

Facile labeling puts that at risk