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Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

HavokFour said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1935542246184484925
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Yeah, Israel is claiming to have struck the inactive Arak reactor. I haven’t seen a claim about the colocated heavy water production facility.

Arak’s been under construction for a long time, and had been paused for a redesign under the defunct JCPOA to reduce proliferation concerns and potential utility to a weapons program. The concern was the original design would have created plutonium as a reaction byproduct. It wasn’t close to operation yet; Israel knocking the site out is essentially setting back an ‘in progress’. No reason to think there was nuclear fuel on site.

Bigger picture: less info out of Iran today, according to reports their internet has largely been down. That could be another sign towards a weakening regime. Yesterday BBC had coverage of empty store shelves, gasoline shortages, and difficulty accessing funds at banks. All of those needless to say, are bad.

Something to consider as we inch closer to US direct involvement: Israel has largely degraded Iran’s ability to strike Israel. It’s not gone, but that just aren’t landing punches that matter. However, if Iran feels a feed to retaliate against the U.S., let’s bear in mind that they likely have a far larger and less degraded stock of weapons that can reach across the Glf to the Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and into Iraq and Syria. I speculate that some of the significant move of tactical aircraft by the U.S. may be with the intent of sweeping southwest Iran to degrade their ability to do this. To me it would make sense that, as the bomb bay doors open over Fordow, they would want a massive strike package hitting every launcher or missile storage site known in SW Iran, and probably IRGC and conventional Navy assets that might be levied against Hormuz shipping.

If the U.S. joins in, I can’t see Iran not trying to close the strait of Hormuz. Recall that they needn’t physically close it to achieve the economic impact; they need only render passage by civilian shippers uninsurable.
 
brihard said:
Yeah, Israel is claiming to have struck the inactive Arak reactor. I haven’t seen a claim about the colocated heavy water production facility.

Arak’s been under construction for a long time, and had been paused for a redesign under the defunct JCPOA to reduce proliferation concerns and potential utility to a weapons program. The concern was the original design would have created plutonium as a reaction byproduct. It wasn’t close to operation yet; Israel knocking the site out is essentially setting back an ‘in progress’. No reason to think there was nuclear fuel on site.

Bigger picture: less info out of Iran today, according to reports their internet has largely been down. That could be another sign towards a weakening regime. Yesterday BBC had coverage of empty store shelves, gasoline shortages, and difficulty accessing funds at banks. All of those needless to say, are bad.

Something to consider as we inch closer to US direct involvement: Israel has largely degraded Iran’s ability to strike Israel. It’s not gone, but that just aren’t landing punches that matter. However, if Iran feels a feed to retaliate against the U.S., let’s bear in mind that they likely have a far larger and less degraded stock of weapons that can reach across the Glf to the Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and into Iraq and Syria. I speculate that some of the significant move of tactical aircraft by the U.S. may be with the intent of sweeping southwest Iran to degrade their ability to do this. To me it would make sense that, as the bomb bay doors open over Fordow, they would want a massive strike package hitting every launcher or missile storage site known in SW Iran, and probably IRGC and conventional Navy assets that might be levied against Hormuz shipping.

If the U.S. joins in, I can’t see Iran not trying to close the strait of Hormuz. Recall that they needn’t physically close it to achieve the economic impact; they need only render passage by civilian shippers uninsurable.
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Carpet the water with mines - floating and below the surface.
 
Navy_Pete said:
It's hard to tell if they have an actual plan, or are taking advantage of the opportunity to hit the Iranian nuke program to distract from what is going on in Gaza. May be drifiting into weird conspiracy territory, but no one has talked about the corrruption charges on Netanyahu in a long time.
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Excellent points, and good catch!

Netanyahu is extremely unpopular among Israeli's (there is such a thing as overstaying your welcome as the nation's leader...) and the corruption charges go hand in hand with his unpopularity

The events of October 7th & subsequent military action in the Gaza Strip definitely distracted the local media from his corruption scandal, and this outta' keep the local media distracted for the foreseeabkw future.

(A pessimistic conspiracy theorist might even go so far as to ponder whether a terrorist group holding a bunch of Israeli hostages could be politically convenient, and pulled out to distract the local media when necessary...but that would be tacky & crazy talk...)


HavokFour said:
Brutal.



www.jpost.com

Israel assassinated Iranian army chief in secret mountain hideout | The Jerusalem Post

The IDF waited for dozens of senior IRGC officers to move to the "secret" location, in the mountains outside of Tehran, and then killed them all at the same time.
www.jpost.com www.jpost.com
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Wrath of Khan, anyone? (The newer one...)

I swear they were inspired to do this from Star Trek (of all things)
 
IDF confirms Iran launched missile carrying fragmenting cluster warhead

The missile’s warhead splits while descending, at an altitude of around 7 kilometers, spreading around 20 smaller munitions at a radius of around 8 kilometers. The munitions do not have their own propulsion, and simply fly away randomly to the ground.
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100% designed for terror, that spread is enormous. And they're firing them into cities in the middle of the work day.


Slightly more positive news.

IDF estimates it has hit two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers — official
 
Key bits from the latest from ISW attached (highlighting mine) ....
  • "Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the call from US President Donald Trump for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Khamenei also threatened US forces if the United States joins the war against Iran.
  • The so-called “Axis of Resistance” has continued to threaten retaliation if the United States joins the war against Iran. These threats have come from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
  • Israeli strikes have driven Iranian forces to begin firing missiles from central Iran rather than western Iran. Iranian forces will need to use longer-range missiles to reach Israel from the launch sites in central Iran.
  • Iran is struggling to coordinate large-scale missile strikes targeting Israel due to pressure from Israeli strikes. This is reflected in the volume of recent Iranian missile fire, which has decreased significantly throughout the war.
  • Iranian leaders appear concerned about the potential for social unrest. They have taken precautions to protect their regime, while Israel has struck sites connected to the Iranian internal security apparatus."
 

Attachments

HavokFour said:
There's pressure from all sorts of angles now. I was curious and went looking, even the exiled crown prince is urging Iranians to rise up.

www.france24.com

Son of late shah urges Iranians to break with Islamic republic

The son of Iran's late shah appealed Friday to the country's security forces to abandon the cleric-run state, voicing hope for toppling the Islamic republic after Israel launched military strikes.
www.france24.com www.france24.com
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This just in: USSR 2.0 state media's take on the guy :) (links to archived version, not RUS servers)
Screenshot 2025-06-19 125750.jpg
 
The Bread Guy said:
Lotsa real estate in Tehran's been harder than usual to get insurance for lately, for sure :)
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Legitimately there is a guy in Israel sitting around with a target list that just read that article, and is like ‘fuck that guy’ and is adding him to the next package.
 
KevinB said:
Legitimately there is a guy in Israel sitting around with a target list that just read that article, and is like ‘fuck that guy’ and is adding him to the next package.
Click to expand...
Assuming he wasn't already on another list, still waiting for delivery ;)
 
The Bread Guy said:
Assuming he wasn't already on another list, still waiting for delivery ;)
Click to expand...
Very very true.
He may also now be on two lists (or more) at once.

Plus the additional list of people Army.ca suggested that the IDF get too.

He’s totally screwed.
 
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