Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Quirky]

And hope all of this doesn't fall apart in the coming trade war .....

Eurofighter or Rafale lines are still open are they not....

 

[GR66]

Eurofighter or Rafale lines are still open are they not....

Gripen for the win!!!!

 

[ytz]

The brief further showed a CAF program designed to bolster enlistment by targeting immigrants enrolled just over a hundred volunteers.

Gotta love the Western Standard. And in this case trying to imply lack of interest among immigrants. Here's the numbers from the CBC:

Out of 21,472 applications from permanent residents received between Nov. 1, 2022 and Nov. 24, 2023 (the first full year of eligibility), less than one per cent were accepted into the regular forces — just 77 people, according to the Department of National Defence.

And of the 6,928 permanent residents who applied to join the navy, army and air force reserves, just 76 were enrolled between Nov. 1, 2022 and Jan. 26, 2024, the department told CBC News.

And here's the culprit for why the conversion rate is so low:

Brodie said permanent residents are told when they apply that it can take 18 to 24 months for Canada's security agencies to handle their files because they can require an "additional level of security screening" due to "foreign implications."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/permanent-resident-military-applications-enrolment-1.7116469

It's all well and good to increase the eligible recruiting pool. But the organization has to be resourced properly to turn that added interest into recruits. Not increasing the personnel and resources dedicated to processing clearances doomed what is a great initiative to failure.

 

[ytz]

Eurofighter or Rafale lines are still open are they not....

They just aren't as good as the Panther though. If we're going this route, then lease a small fleet and join one of those next gen programs at the same time so we can do an early replacement.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Agreed. But in the end the RCAF is getting 88 Block IV Panthers. That's quite the gain. It's a 103% increase on magazine capacity alone, over the originally planned 65 Block II/III frames. Now if only we can convince the Americans to give us the new radar. And hope all of this doesn't fall apart in the coming trade war .....

I'm sorry, what ? Panthers ?

 

[Quirky]

It's all well and good to increase the eligible recruiting pool. But the organization has to be resourced properly to turn that added interest into recruits. Not increasing the personnel and resources dedicated to processing clearances doomed what is a great initiative to failure.

Recruitment is not the problem. It's enrolment.

They just aren't as good as the Panther though.

They aren't. But they'll be good enough for homeland defense and airshows if the F35 is turned off.

 

[Good2Golf]

I'm sorry, what ? Panthers ?

Vernacular. Few call them ‘Lightning IIs’.

F-16 Fighting Falcon often called Vipers.

F-18 E/F Super Hornets often called Rhinos.

 

[Rifleman62]

Gotta love the Western Standard.

It was Blacklock’s Reporter as the source, published by the Western Standard.

Blacklock’s Reporter has a good reputation of getting inside info.

 

[Czech_pivo]

More than zero. Purchase and getting them to flyable status for Canada was a clusterfuck, as is tradition. However they are flying in RCAF colors which is a success in political terms.

We bought 25 - 1 is more than 0.
Anything less than 10 is criminal in terms of once again wasting money for those of us who actually pay income tax here in Canada.

 

[KevinB]

A billion here. A billion there.

You're hand-waving a lot in what should be a much more precise discussion.

1) 1% of GDP is not some small numbers. It's US$21B. That's over CA$30B at current exchange rates.

It isn't hand waving away.
The CAF is reportedly 20-40K positions short (depending on who's report), the current PY eat up 57% of your 1.29% GDP budget (39.0B as per your PBO) which means 22.2B is Salaries (and other related personnel expenses)

2) Personnel costs don't scale anything like you assume. And certainly not to the point where a whole percentage of GDP is eaten up. An additional 20 000 in the Regular Force is maybe $3B more per year.

At minimum you are going to need 4.4B (and potentially near 9B) to fill Personnel shortfalls.

3) Anybody can WAG what can be absorbed looking at unit prices on Wikipedia and daydreaming of what can be absorbed. In reality, we don't have the institutional capacity for each element to suddenly add $10B worth of equipment per year. Heck, where you getting all the vehicle techs alone to manage these billions of dollars worth of kit you want to buy for the army? Right now we have techs who are regularly flying between Gagetown and Wainwright just to keep the Leopards from falling apart and we're burning these folks out.

Well one would want to plan that if one is getting equipment that part of the program should be looking at the PY requirement to maintain the fleets, and ensuring that spares and maintenance programs are in place...
A lot of maintenance down here is by OEM under contract - and while I would argue that in most cases that isn't the best value for the government, that in the short term it can be used as a bridge to conduct train the trainer for military personnel, and keep fleets maintained until the required number of personnel are available to conduct maintenance.
One doesn't need to resort to Wiki - as one can see what FMS or Direct Sale by OEM go through Congress - or one can be lazy and pad the cost of what we pay for things down here, like an Armored Division etc.

4) Feast or famine is a massive problem for the CAF and industry. It means we pay more, get less and industry takes a hit too. So you will not find much political or institutional to have this massive $100B surge over 5 years that you imagine. You can find a ton more support to make sure the procurement budget goes up by $10B indefinitely. Added benefit that we avoid another wave of obsolescence in the future, like the one we have now.

I'd say the CAF hasn't had a major issue with feast for years...
But I agree that the boom - bust is good for no one, but I see a different issue for Canada - as pretty much everything in service currently needs to be recapitalized currently -
There is no significant MIL Industry in Canada, yes there are a bunch of subcontracts, or foreign owned subsidiaries doing business in Canada, but very little whole item manufacturing, and very little backstop if international markets are scarce or high demand in times like today.
So you can get some items (P-8) before end of line, and eventually get the pipeline moving for the F-35, but nothing jumps starts quickly especially with no infrastructure.
Canada used to have domestic capabilities in Crown Corporations -- we have similar down here with either GOGO, or GOCO (Government Owned, Government Operated, or Government Owned, Contractor Operated respectively) facilities.
While most for profit business may not see the business case in creating an armored vehicle plant in Canada, a CC could be practical to build a design under license that is designed to make 100 MBT a year, and it does that for 5 years, then operates on a min run of 30-50 a year to keep the fleet upgraded and tanks are rotated thru high usage units - get reset - go to lower usage, then reset again, then war stock.

 

[Kirkhill]

The Chinese National Defence.

What Red Sea Battles Have Taught The Navy About A Future China Fight

The past 15 months in the Red Sea have provided the Navy with a real-world stress test of its systems, platforms and people.

www.twz.com

The US National Defence

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5112015-trump-executive-order-missile-defense/

Aerospace firm RTX 'fully prepared' to support Trump's Iron Dome plan

U.S. President signed an order this week calling for deployment of space-based interceptors to destroy missiles from foreign adversaries.

nationalpost.com

....

Tell me again about the value of an understrength Brigade in Latvia.
Or the plan if the government really thought Trump were serious about his 51st state rhetoric.

 

[Kirkhill]

The State of Ukrainian Air Defense (Part One)

Executive Summary: Over the past two years, Ukraine has weathered Russian strikes on critical targets, and the intensity of Russian missile and air strikes could soon lead to the exhaustion of Ukraine’s missile stocks. As Ukraine’s stocks have dwindled, the effectiveness of air defense has...

jamestown.org

The State of Ukrainian Air Defense (Part Two)

Executive Summary: Russia’s long war against Ukraine has highlighted the importance of front-line air defense systems as well as the accompanying munitions and reconnaissance/communication capabilities. The proliferation of precision air attack weapons and the unprecedented number of...

jamestown.org

The State of Ukrainian Air Defense (Part Three)

Executive Summary: Ukrainian forces require more assistance in repairing, maintaining, and training for Western-made air defense systems. They also need additional air defense assets, especially surface-to-air missiles and corresponding systems, drone interceptors, and infrared search and track...

jamestown.org

What are Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow and Thaad missile defences?

Israel has used its elaborate system of air defences to counter missile and drone attacks.

www.bbc.com

https://israelforever.org/news/IronDome.jpg

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Those Who Dont Want to Feed Their Own Army Will Feed Someone Elses

I'm wondering if it's not time, especially with the upcoming trade negotiations, to swallow our pride and enter into a lend lease program with the US for all of our equipment. It makes sense to have total interoperability with our closest ally. We will get much more equipment, sooner, cheaper and with less hassle, than if we go it alone. We can't order new gloves without 5 years development and studies, another 5 years, if lucky, for tenders and another 5 years to delivery. Only to find our gloves no longer meet requirements. This is even worse with major equipment. Who knows, Trump might look very favorably on a deal like this.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Those Who Dont Want to Feed Their Own Army Will Feed Someone Elses

I'm wondering if it's not time, especially with the upcoming trade negotiations, to swallow our pride and enter into a lend lease program with the US for all of our equipment. It makes sense to have total interoperability with our closest ally. We will get much more equipment, sooner, cheaper and with less hassle, than if we go it alone. We can't order new gloves without 5 years development and studies, another 5 years, if lucky, for tenders and another 5 years to delivery. Only to find our gloves no longer meet requirements. This is even worse with major equipment. Who knows, Trump might look very favorably on a deal like this.

There is some precedence for this - I believe a fair amount of our initial kit for Korea came from US stores....

 

[QV]

Those Who Dont Want to Feed Their Own Army Will Feed Someone Elses

I'm wondering if it's not time, especially with the upcoming trade negotiations, to swallow our pride and enter into a lend lease program with the US for all of our equipment. It makes sense to have total interoperability with our closest ally. We will get much more equipment, sooner, cheaper and with less hassle, than if we go it alone. We can't order new gloves without 5 years development and studies, another 5 years, if lucky, for tenders and another 5 years to delivery. Only to find our gloves no longer meet requirements. This is even worse with major equipment. Who knows, Trump might look very favorably on a deal like this.

That makes sense.

So does standing up a CC as Kevin mentioned that would build and maintain under licence certain kinds of equipment.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I'm sure there will likely be some wiggle room for us if he gets his Iron Dome idea off the ground. Much like NORAD.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

That makes sense.

So does standing up a CC as Kevin mentioned that would build and maintain under licence certain kinds of equipment.

I have no doubt there will be more than enough work for Canada's military industrial complex, such as it is.

 

[KevinB]

I'm sure there will likely be some wiggle room for us if he gets his Iron Dome idea off the ground. Much like NORAD.

Well, you can be part of the solution, or the impact area...

 

[ytz]

It isn't hand waving away.

It kinda is when you get into crazy ideas like 5% of GDP. A country with a $40B defence budget is not going to suddenly just jump to spending $150B annually, outside of war time.

Heck, we had a Conservative government and even they didn't see the need, during an actual shooting war with troops down range.

The CAF is reportedly 20-40K positions short (depending on who's report), the current PY eat up 57% of your 1.29% GDP budget (39.0B as per your PBO) which means 22.2B is Salaries (and other related personnel expenses)

At minimum you are going to need 4.4B (and potentially near 9B) to fill Personnel shortfalls.

I don't know where you're getting 40k personnel. But even your absolute worst case scenario here means that if we go up by 1% of GDP from current levels, we'd have C$20B in additional funds aside from full manning. That is a lot. Probably more than we can absorb. And if run for the better part of a decade, would see complete recapitalization of most of the force outside the RCN.

 

[MacNav63]

It isn't hand waving away.
The CAF is reportedly 20-40K positions short (depending on who's report), the current PY eat up 57% of your 1.29% GDP budget (39.0B as per your PBO) which means 22.2B is Salaries (and other related personnel expenses)

At minimum you are going to need 4.4B (and potentially near 9B) to fill Personnel shortfalls.

Well one would want to plan that if one is getting equipment that part of the program should be looking at the PY requirement to maintain the fleets, and ensuring that spares and maintenance programs are in place...
A lot of maintenance down here is by OEM under contract - and while I would argue that in most cases that isn't the best value for the government, that in the short term it can be used as a bridge to conduct train the trainer for military personnel, and keep fleets maintained until the required number of personnel are available to conduct maintenance.
One doesn't need to resort to Wiki - as one can see what FMS or Direct Sale by OEM go through Congress - or one can be lazy and pad the cost of what we pay for things down here, like an Armored Division etc.

I'd say the CAF hasn't had a major issue with feast for years...
But I agree that the boom - bust is good for no one, but I see a different issue for Canada - as pretty much everything in service currently needs to be recapitalized currently -
There is no significant MIL Industry in Canada, yes there are a bunch of subcontracts, or foreign owned subsidiaries doing business in Canada, but very little whole item manufacturing, and very little backstop if international markets are scarce or high demand in times like today.
So you can get some items (P-8) before end of line, and eventually get the pipeline moving for the F-35, but nothing jumps starts quickly especially with no infrastructure.
Canada used to have domestic capabilities in Crown Corporations -- we have similar down here with either GOGO, or GOCO (Government Owned, Government Operated, or Government Owned, Contractor Operated respectively) facilities.
While most for profit business may not see the business case in creating an armored vehicle plant in Canada, a CC could be practical to build a design under license that is designed to make 100 MBT a year, and it does that for 5 years, then operates on a min run of 30-50 a year to keep the fleet upgraded and tanks are rotated thru high usage units - get reset - go to lower usage, then reset again, then war stock.

Sabres, Starfighters and CF-5s all manufactured under licence in Canada by Canadair (although it wasn't at the time a CC). Some even for export. Don't think the CA ever purchased enough of anything though to justify separate lines in Canada.